US/Israel and Iran- (41 Viewers)

[efil4]

Thought we should start thread here - over weekend, US carried out strikes against Houthi elements in Yemen in retaliation for their actions in Red Sea.



Houthi leader issued this statement- no US ships in Red Sea


Houthis then attempted to strike US Carrier group

This morning Trump took to Truth Social:



So any missile/shot fired from Houthi elements in Yemen will be considered coming from Iran. Obviously this is wrought with problems, but we know Houthis will respond and continue attacks.

So then what does this mean for Iran? Lots to unpack, but seems to me that the NO WAR POTUS is hell bent on getting into yet ANOTHER conflict in the ME. He is backing himself into a corner with statements and we could find ourselves embroiled in ME conflict again.

 

[zztop]

So much this.

Kakistocracy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

is government by the worst, least qualified, or most unscrupulous people.

 

[Sendai]

Dude - read your own article. I even quoted it. There had been no military activity there since 2010 that NPR could find. It was a closed down base. They had a school and opened a health clinic that were walled off from the old military buildings. They took out the airstrip and were building houses on it.

What says active military about turning the airstrip into housing?

From the NPR article - bolding mine, except for the link.

NPR was the first to report on satellite imagery from the company Planet that suggested multiple buildings, including the clinic, were hit in what appeared to be a precision strike that resulted in the deaths at the school. In total, seven buildings were hit in the strike on the complex, which at one point had been an Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) naval base.

“NBC News has reported that local officials say the base was abandoned for over a decade, but NPR has not been able to independently verify those claims.”

 

[Heathen]

 

[Heathen]

 

[MT15]

“NBC News has reported that local officials say the base was abandoned for over a decade, but NPR has not been able to independently verify those claims.”

However NPR also said that the latest military activity they could find at that base was over 10 years ago and that it was a naval base in the past.

What we have seen reported suggests that it was no longer an active military base. That is why your expert said the strike was based on outdated targeting info.

At this point you will need to provide some sort of information that it was still active because everything reported so far says it was not.

 

[Sendai]

However NPR also said that the latest military activity they could find at that base was over 10 years ago and that it was a naval base in the past.

What we have seen reported suggests that it was no longer an active military base. That is why your expert said the strike was based on outdated targeting info.

At this point you will need to provide some sort of information that it was still active because everything reported so far says it was not.

“A newly released video adds to the evidence that an American missile likely hit an Iranian elementary school where 175 people, many of them children, were reported killed.

The video, uploaded on Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency and verified by The New York Times, shows a Tomahawk cruise missile striking a naval base beside the school in the town of Minab on Feb. 28. The U.S. military is the only force involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles.

A body of evidence assembled by The Times — including satellite imagery, social media posts and other verified videos — indicates that the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred at the same time as attacks on the naval base. The base is operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”

New York Times

Naval Base

 

[superchuck500]

“A newly released video adds to the evidence that an American missile likely hit an Iranian elementary school where 175 people, many of them children, were reported killed.

The video, uploaded on Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr News Agency and verified by The New York Times, shows a Tomahawk cruise missile striking a naval base beside the school in the town of Minab on Feb. 28. The U.S. military is the only force involved in the conflict that uses Tomahawk missiles.

A body of evidence assembled by The Times — including satellite imagery, social media posts and other verified videos — indicates that the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building was severely damaged by a precision strike that occurred at the same time as attacks on the naval base. The base is operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”

New York Times

Naval Base

I have been following this story from the beginning - and there is a base in the general vicinity of the school. The Guardian and BBC (UK), NPR (US), and Al-Jazeera (Qatar) have done fairly deep analysis that has confirmed through the use of satellite imagery and other sources that the building was being operated as a civilian school (a girls' school) since at least 2013, and by at least 2016, had become fully separate from the neighboring base - with its own walls, roads, sidewalks, etc. separated from the base that it was on the outskirts of, and in clear daily civilian use (carpools with civilian vehicles, etc.).

The building was almost certainly struck by a precision guided missile that uses GPS coordinates - in other words, these targets are made on a structure-by-structure basis. Both the Geneva Convention and the US Department of Defense Law of War Manual require that good faith efforts be made to avoid the unnecessary targeting of civilians in military action. Given that this school was on the outside of the base's walls since at least 2016 and clearly being operated as a civilian school since at least 2013, the targeting of this school with a precision guided missile fails to meet that standard.

It can't be claimed to collateral wartime damage when the very structure itself is chosen as a target. And that choice was either based on inexcusably poor intelligence or unverified target list, or it was deliberate.

By the way, US bases have schools on them. CENTCOM (which oversees this very operation) in Tampa has a K-8 elementary school with 650 students within the base's walls and adjacent to several significant military-use structures including the joint communications center.

 

[efil4]

Naval Base

Naval base.

Here is Minab, Iran.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

its land-locked.

But hey, you keep on hanging your many hats on what you think could be any number of reasonable explanations.

So we no longer going with erroneous targeting? Or still on that?

 

[superchuck500]

Naval base.

Here is Minab, Iran.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

its land-locked.

But hey, you keep on hanging your many hats on what you think could be any number of reasonable explanations.

So we no longer going with erroneous targeting? Or still on that?

I believe that is a naval medical facility. But yeah, it doesn't matter - it's inexcusable. It's a war crime.

 

[efil4]

 

[efil4]

I believe that is a naval medical facility. But yeah, it doesn't matter - it's inexcusable. It's a war crime.

he said "naval base" and i am just pointing out there is no "naval base" in Minab because its land-locked.

Naval medical - makes sense, but not a base where ships are berthed, munitions are stored or naval seamen are housed.

and here is the precise location of the compound. They targeted a container another bldg and the school.

the container- SE of red position dot, bdlg NW of red dot and school, due north of red dot.

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

maps.app.goo.gl

 

[Sendai]

he said "naval base" and i am just pointing out there is no "naval base" in Minab because its land-locked.

Naval medical - makes sense, but not a base where ships are berthed, munitions are stored or naval seamen are housed.

The New York Times said “Naval Base”, “The base is operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”

 

[TampaJoe]

I believe that is a naval medical facility. But yeah, it doesn't matter - it's inexcusable. It's a war crime.

If it was an error in targeting (which happens in battle) or an intelligence failure (which also happens), is it still a war crime in your view?

When battles are fought in populated errors, there are most always civilians killed. Sadly that is just a consequence of fighting wars in or around where people live.

I believe for it to be considered a war crime goes to an intent to kill civilians or non combatants or to maybe a “flagrant disregard”.

Just curious to see where you land on such things.

 

[efil4]

The New York Times said “Naval Base”, “The base is operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.”

you typed "Naval Base" to reiterate. So do you stand by that reference and claim it as someone else said it, you are just "parroting" the info?

 

[efil4]

If it was an error in targeting (which happens in battle) or an intelligence failure (which also happens), is it still a war crime in your view?

When battles are fought in populated errors, there are most always civilians killed. Sadly that is just a consequence of fighting wars in or around where people live.

I believe for it to be considered a war crime goes to an intent to kill civilians or non combatants or to maybe a “flagrant disregard”.

Just curious to see where you land on such things.

another one with little to no idea about how target packages work their way up thru chain of command ( from basic intel to approval )

Amazing - you have been off this thread for 2 weeks and NOW you show up.

and @superchuck500 posted a lengthy post about your very question.

 

[Sendai]

you typed "Naval Base" to reiterate. So do you stand by that reference and claim it as someone else said it, you are just "parroting" the info?

Every article I’ve read has identified it as a Naval Base. A Naval Base doesn’t need to be on the water. A compound of buildings used by the Islamic Royal Guard Corp navy is a naval base.

 

[MT15]

If it was an error in targeting (which happens in battle) or an intelligence failure (which also happens), is it still a war crime in your view?

When battles are fought in populated errors, there are most always civilians killed. Sadly that is just a consequence of fighting wars in or around where people live.

I believe for it to be considered a war crime goes to an intent to kill civilians or non combatants or to maybe a “flagrant disregard”.

Just curious to see where you land on such things.

This wasn’t an error in targeting. That was a precision strike per everything reported thus far.

The school was said to be painted in bright colors with a mural and playground. From Al Jazeera:

Following the strike, visual evidence confirmed the following:

• Murals: The walls of the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school were decorated with paintings of trees, crayons, paintbrushes, microscopes, and letters of the Persian alphabet.
• Playground: Remains of a playground, including a red plastic slide and child-sized chairs, were found scattered against a burned-out wall.
• School Setting: Images showed schoolbooks, bloodied backpacks, and children's pink plastic sandals in the debris.
  

It’s going to be very difficult to make the case this wasn’t extremely negligent at best. We have a Def Secretary bragging about loosening the rules of engagement at the same time this happened.

There needs to be an independent investigation. A thorough one.

 

[MT15]

Every article I’ve read has identified it as a Naval Base. A Naval Base doesn’t need to be on the water. A compound of buildings used by the Islamic Royal Guard Corp navy is a naval base.

So you’re willing to go to the mat on this pedantic aspect, but unwilling to comment on the strike itself in any meaningful way? Got it.