US/Israel and Iran-

[efil4]

Thought we should start thread here - over weekend, US carried out strikes against Houthi elements in Yemen in retaliation for their actions in Red Sea.



Houthi leader issued this statement- no US ships in Red Sea


Houthis then attempted to strike US Carrier group

This morning Trump took to Truth Social:



So any missile/shot fired from Houthi elements in Yemen will be considered coming from Iran. Obviously this is wrought with problems, but we know Houthis will respond and continue attacks.

So then what does this mean for Iran? Lots to unpack, but seems to me that the NO WAR POTUS is hell bent on getting into yet ANOTHER conflict in the ME. He is backing himself into a corner with statements and we could find ourselves embroiled in ME conflict again.

 

[zztop]

From a completely naive layman’s viewpoint…they need to hit the Mullahs and engage in guerrilla tactics.

I would assume if that happened and the government was overthrown, that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards would take power. Much like how the "Arab Spring" happened in Egypt. The people overthrew the government there... only for the military to take over afterwards and form another brutal dictatorship

 

[efil4]

on Jan 6 2026, $1USD = 43,000 Iranian rials

today- $1 USD = 994,500 Iranian rials.

 

[bird]

I would assume if that happened and the government was overthrown, that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards would take power. Much like how the "Arab Spring" happened in Egypt. The people overthrew the government there... only for the military to take over afterwards and form another brutal dictatorship

Entirely possible. That being said it may be that the regime has reached a point where they cannot remain as they have been. We, the U.S. and Israel, do not need to be involved from the standpoint of providing military strikes. Beyond that? Any intervention will run extreme risk of the law of unintended consequences.

I don’t know what will happen. I don’t think anyone does. At best it is all S.W.A.G.s, Silly Wild Azz Guesses.

 

[Dragon]

Entirely possible. That being said it may be that the regime has reached a point where they cannot remain as they have been. We, the U.S. and Israel, do not need to be involved from the standpoint of providing military strikes. Beyond that? Any intervention will run extreme risk of the law of unintended consequences.

I don’t know what will happen. I don’t think anyone does. At best it is all S.W.A.G.s, Silly Wild Azz Guesses.

Let the iranian people fix their own affairs and concentrate on fixing the US. Sad to say it but currently the US is a greater threat to world peace than Iran!

 

[efil4]

Let the iranian people fix their own affairs and concentrate on fixing the US. Sad to say it but currently the US is a greater threat to world peace than Iran!

i do think that the US should support protestors who are being exterminated by the 100s daily.

However, its a delicate geopolitical issue that requires much diplomacy and ability to persuade. Neither of which this Administration has.

So we are left with "we will bomb you"

Thats the diplomacy/dialogue.

And now its clear the IRGC has killed over 3000 protestors over the last week. Trump himself has said "they crossed his line" - So now he MUST act or look like a weak fool for mouthing off.

Except this time, the IRGC will be waiting. And they wont lob just two ballistic missiles ( with warning to US ) at Al Uadid Air Base. They will launch 30.

 

[Dragon]

i do think that the US should support protestors who are being exterminated by the 100s daily.

However, its a delicate geopolitical issue that requires much diplomacy and ability to persuade. Neither of which this Administration has.

So we are left with "we will bomb you"

Thats the diplomacy/dialogue.

And now its clear the IRGC has killed over 3000 protestors over the last week. Trump himself has said "they crossed his line" - So now he MUST act or look like a weak fool for mouthing off.

Except this time, the IRGC will be waiting. And they wont lob just two ballistic missiles ( with warning to US ) at Al Uadid Air Base. They will launch 30.

Problem is bomb who?? Knowing the current US regime they would probably kill more regular iranians than those responsible for the killing of the protestors and call it a "win"

 

[efil4]

Problem is bomb who?? Knowing the current US regime they would probably kill more regular iranians than those responsible for the killing of the protestors and call it a "win"

oh there is no doubt. it was dumb to say it, much less publicly.

Again, diplomacy/dialogue and stuff normally done "behind the scenes" - this administration lacks the ability to do any of it.

You know the old adage - "dont write checks your arse cant cash"

 

[Taurus]

Problem is bomb who?? Knowing the current US regime they would probably kill more regular iranians than those responsible for the killing of the protestors and call it a "win"

They're all swarthy, right?

 

[Sendai]

i do think that the US should support protestors who are being exterminated by the 100s daily.

However, its a delicate geopolitical issue that requires much diplomacy and ability to persuade. Neither of which this Administration has.

So we are left with "we will bomb you"

Thats the diplomacy/dialogue.

And now its clear the IRGC has killed over 3000 protestors over the last week. Trump himself has said "they crossed his line" - So now he MUST act or look like a weak fool for mouthing off.

Except this time, the IRGC will be waiting. And they wont lob just two ballistic missiles ( with warning to US ) at Al Uadid Air Base. They will launch 30.

I doubt the Iranian military is much of a threat


“Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war”

Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war

In this Q&A, ACLED Senior Analyst Dr. Ameneh Mehvar breaks down how the Israel-Iran conflict unfolded, what it achieved, and what the current ceasefire might mean for the future.

acleddata.com

 

[efil4]

I doubt the Iranian military is much of a threat


“Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war”

Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war

In this Q&A, ACLED Senior Analyst Dr. Ameneh Mehvar breaks down how the Israel-Iran conflict unfolded, what it achieved, and what the current ceasefire might mean for the future.

acleddata.com

based on an article from July 4 2025.

Yeah, Iran didnt do anything but sit around since June 2025 and stare at the wreckage.

Man, i know you like to straddle fences, but if you truly "Doubt" their ability to strike back, thank God you arent in charge of the US Military.

You are quite easily manipulated. One article from July 2025 and you have "doubts" about them posing a threat to US concerns in the region

EL oh EL.

 

[zztop]

Entirely possible. That being said it may be that the regime has reached a point where they cannot remain as they have been. We, the U.S. and Israel, do not need to be involved from the standpoint of providing military strikes. Beyond that? Any intervention will run extreme risk of the law of unintended consequences.

I don’t know what will happen. I don’t think anyone does. At best it is all S.W.A.G.s, Silly Wild Azz Guesses.

Sure, just guesses. I'm just basing my thoughts on the previous Arab Spring, and what happened afterwards in those countries. It is hard to be positive when it happened in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria etc (To my knowledge, there was no 'good' result for the people in those countries afterwards - the people got rid of one bad thing, only for it to be replaced by another bad thing)

Anyways, I've read some 500+ protestors have already been killed in Iran... numbers might be even higher, since information is difficult to share when the country is in lockdown

 

[zztop]

Problem is bomb who?? Knowing the current US regime they would probably kill more regular iranians than those responsible for the killing of the protestors and call it a "win"

Yeah, I just shook my head when I read a comment on social media 'trump promised to intervene - hope he follows through' ( because they must not realize he and his cohorts don't just hate the regime, they hate all the non-white-non-christians )

 

[Taurus]

I doubt the Iranian military is much of a threat


“Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war”

Q&A | Twelve days that shook the region: Inside the Iran-Israel war

In this Q&A, ACLED Senior Analyst Dr. Ameneh Mehvar breaks down how the Israel-Iran conflict unfolded, what it achieved, and what the current ceasefire might mean for the future.

acleddata.com

The Afghan military wasn't much of a threat. Nor was the Taliban, in military terms.
There's a huge difference between "Military force that can defeat us" and "Worthless damn tar baby we never should've touched in the first place."

 

[efil4]

 

[MT15]

Final and conclusive, lolololol

 

[bird]

Final and conclusive, lolololol

You forgot to add “stupid”.