US/Israel and Iran- (4 Viewers)

[efil4]

Thought we should start thread here - over weekend, US carried out strikes against Houthi elements in Yemen in retaliation for their actions in Red Sea.



Houthi leader issued this statement- no US ships in Red Sea


Houthis then attempted to strike US Carrier group

This morning Trump took to Truth Social:



So any missile/shot fired from Houthi elements in Yemen will be considered coming from Iran. Obviously this is wrought with problems, but we know Houthis will respond and continue attacks.

So then what does this mean for Iran? Lots to unpack, but seems to me that the NO WAR POTUS is hell bent on getting into yet ANOTHER conflict in the ME. He is backing himself into a corner with statements and we could find ourselves embroiled in ME conflict again.

 

[efil4]

I disagree, I disagree with the argument that OPEC is some how beneficial, I disagree with the argument that since the current administration doesn't support renewables we ought not support renewables either, and I disagree with any notion that responding to the global oil crises should in effect cause us to subsidize global trade which undercuts our ability to produce domestic oil which which is for the most part unable to be produced for under $110 per barrel.

I think $110 per barrel is the current fair market value of oil in the United States. $110, perhaps even $120. We can produce oil, but we have to get for that oil what it costs to produce it. How much is this damned war costing, why...

Keep in mind I see people here complaining about prices at the pump which is about $1.50 less per gallon then the price I'm currently paying. That last is an expression of GOOD GOD I DON'T CARE!

I think you are conflating DOMESTIC with GLOBAL here.

You want to circle wagons and see oil at $110/bbl in US???? Unsustainable for almost everyone. Especially those making under $60k/yr.

Im not saying OPEC is a benefit to US. It benefits the globe.

Having a bunch of friends here in SELA in the oil biz, ive always been told the "Sweet spot ( break even ) " pricing for oil is around $65-70/bbl. Under $60 and oil cos get skittish. Over $70 and consumer demand starts to drop.

None of the current level of pricing is sustainable.

No one said for us to subsidize global oil. No one said to stop supporting renewables ( i for one think that is where we need to position ourselves in 10 years down line ) But we are way behind in that arena. And this Admin/GOP deems renewables as the Devil.

But back to OPEC and the globe. International trade, international economics depends on stability. Which, unfortunately, OPEC provides THEM. Which, in turn, provides US ( US consumers ) with some semblance of affordability.

So upending THAT, along with oil settling at $110/bbl - is an economic earthquake waiting to happen.

 

[SamAndreas]

I think you are conflating DOMESTIC with GLOBAL here.

You want to circle wagons and see oil at $110/bbl in US???? Unsustainable for almost everyone. Especially those making under $60k/yr.

Im not saying OPEC is a benefit to US. It benefits the globe.

Having a bunch of friends here in SELA in the oil biz, ive always been told the "Sweet spot ( break even ) " pricing for oil is around $65-70/bbl. Under $60 and oil cos get skittish. Over $70 and consumer demand starts to drop.

None of the current level of pricing is sustainable.

No one said for us to subsidize global oil. No one said to stop supporting renewables ( i for one think that is where we need to position ourselves in 10 years down line ) But we are way behind in that arena. And this Admin/GOP deems renewables as the Devil.

But back to OPEC and the globe. International trade, international economics depends on stability. Which, unfortunately, OPEC provides THEM. Which, in turn, provides US ( US consumers ) with some semblance of affordability.

So upending THAT, along with oil settling at $110/bbl - is an economic earthquake waiting to happen.

I think global warming is killing us. The policies you are supporting undermine our ability as a human race to convert from a petroleum to a renewable economy, which is the first and foremost important issue before the human race right now.

I would like to see $7 per gallon now, increasing to $10 or more per gallon incrementally as years go by, adjusted for inflation of course, such that by then it might be $16 per gallon.

That my friend will force the human race to deal with global warming, the first and foremost issue before us today.

Like I implied previously, about the small stuff I don't care.

 

[zztop]

Which monopoly - the US oil industry or OPEC?

OPEC keeps the Exxon/Shell/BP in check

its not as simple as one would think....tug on that loose string and the whole sweater unravels.

I get where you are coming from, but gotta play this out to see where it leads. And my initial guess is not a good spot.

Honestly I figured they were all colluding to manipulate the pricing etc.
I'm just really tired of oil manipulating markets, politics, and the economy etc.

 

[efil4]

I think global warming is killing us. The policies you are supporting undermine our ability as a human race to convert from a petroleum to a renewable economy, which is the first and foremost important issue before the human race right now.

Hang on, i dont support big oil at all. Havent for last 10 years once i realized the gaming of the system and its inherent design.

but its not lost on me the amount of job loss that would throw the world into a tailspin if we were to simply "undo" OPEC and Big Oil in a matter of months.

Cmon now. Im a massive proponent ( repeating myself here ) of renewables. Have been for quite some time.

You must have me confused for someone else.

 

[TampaJoe]

I think global warming is killing us. The policies you are supporting undermine our ability as a human race to convert from a petroleum to a renewable economy, which is the first and foremost important issue before the human race right now.

I would like to see $7 per gallon now, increasing to $10 or more per gallon incrementally as years go by, adjusted for inflation of course, such that by then it might be $16 per gallon.

That my friend will force the human race to deal with global warming, the first and foremost issue before us today.

Like I implied previously, about the small stuff I don't care.

I don’t totally disagree with you on Global Warming. I just don’t think we (USA) can solve that problem on our own and I don’t think other countries like China, India, Pakistan, Russia are as concerned with climate as we are. So in my mind we should be thinking about how to survive in this climate cycle cause I think it’s coming regardless of what we do.

As far as moving from fossil fuels to other alternatives, renewables isn’t there at the moment and you won’t be able to force that solution on the market without quite a bit of economic pain. I think it will come on its own over time. I also think we are going to have to depend more on nuclear energy as a solution even though it makes many environmental folks nervous because I’m not convinced renewables will be sufficient on their own.

That said. I’m hopeful and optimistic we will figure this out. I’m not saying it will be easy or painless. But things we can do today we beyond imagination 20 years ago. So who knows.

 

[SamAndreas]

Well Efil, if that is what you think, then stop undermining the change over to renewables. We need for Gasoline, Diesel, and Jet fuel, (which is a form of diesel), to get so high priced that folks will stop burning them for fuel.

I don’t totally disagree with you on Global Warming. I just don’t think we (USA) can solve that problem on our own and I don’t think other countries like China, India, Pakistan, Russia are as concerned with climate as we are. So in my mind we should be thinking about how to survive in this climate cycle cause I think it’s coming regardless of what we do.

As far as moving from fossil fuels to other alternatives, renewables isn’t there at the moment and you won’t be able to force that solution on the market without quite a bit of economic pain. I think it will come on its own over time. I also think we are going to have to depend more on nuclear energy as a solution even though it makes many environmental folks nervous because I’m not convinced renewables will be sufficient on their own.

That said. I’m hopeful and optimistic we will figure this out. I’m not saying it will be easy or painless. But things we can do today we beyond imagination 20 years ago. So who knows.

We are there Joe, The necessary material science and engineering is in place. Oddly enough it is Musk who has done more to put that in place than anyone else in the whole world.

I never thought electric would be able to replace diesel semi-trucks. Especially not up here in the winding hills where I live. But low and behold the Tesla simi-trucks have been rolled out, and it is up here on these steep hills where they have appeared first. Why, because they can climb our steep hills with ease. About the only time when I get behind a truck and find one going the same speed I want to go, it's an electric truck. And I've never seen one of them off to the side of the road broke down.

Electric farm tractors have not been brought out yet, but clearly they will be soon. Soon if the price of Diesel continues to go up.

Ukraine has show that electric can power aircraft, even for long distances, that roll out will be somewhat delayed, until solid state batteries are brought onto the market in scale. That won't happen soon if the price of jet fuel goes back down.

Batteries have become advanced enough that solar cells can feed batteries and get us though long cold nights. Which will improve even more with solid state batteries. But it will take the price of fuel to push that conversion so that it happens sooner rather than later. Now is the time to do it.

My electric car costs just a fraction of what my gas car does per mile, despite the fact that electric rates are sky high here, 36 cents per kilowatt hour. These things are efficient, and are now proven mature technology. Thanks other and Musk, especially Musk.

 

[efil4]

. We need for Gasoline, Diesel, and Jet fuel, (which is a form of diesel), to get so high priced that folks will stop burning them for fuel.

LOL Jet Fuel. Yeah lets just stop air travel.
Diesel- yeah lets just halt all transportation of goods.

Brilliant idea.

 

[SamAndreas]

LOL Jet Fuel. Yeah lets just stop air travel.
Diesel- yeah lets just halt all transportation of goods.

Brilliant idea.

Did I say "stop," no didn't say that. I said make it more, and then even more expensive over time such that it forces this very necessary conversion.

Now is the time to begin doing it. In that regard this inane war is helping.

God knows if the politicians are left to get it done, it will never get done.

 

[efil4]

 

[efil4]

Did I say "stop," no didn't say that.

yeah you did. i dont know how you dont even read your own words you typed.

 

[MT15]

Man, he had a window to do that in the first few days to a week. What an embarrassment.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

Trump basically asked the intelligence agencies, "what will Iran do if I say I won and then turn tail and run?"

 

[SamAndreas]

Man, he had a window to do that in the first few days to a week. What an embarrassment.

Here's more of that embarrassment:



Hay, I just noticed something, embarrassment = em-barr-arse-mint.

 

[Taurus]

Hang on, i dont support big oil at all. Havent for last 10 years once i realized the gaming of the system and its inherent design.

but its not lost on me the amount of job loss that would throw the world into a tailspin if we were to simply "undo" OPEC and Big Oil in a matter of months.

Cmon now. Im a massive proponent ( repeating myself here ) of renewables. Have been for quite some time.

You must have me confused for someone else.

The job losses are coming whether oil is at $110 or $10/bbl.

No one will regulate AI in any meaningful way until it's far too late.

 

[Dragon]

Electric buses are rapidly dominating European urban transport, with 60% of new city buses registered in early 2025 being zero-emission, primarily battery-electric. Major manufacturers like MAN and BYD Europe lead the market, while nations like Denmark are achieving 50% fleet electrification ahead of 2030 targets. By 2030, over 100,000 zero-emission buses are projected for operation across the EU.

In the mean time the Trump admin has put an end to almost all renewable energy projects created by Biden

 

[efil4]

 

[SamAndreas]

Electric buses are rapidly dominating European urban transport, with 60% of new city buses registered in early 2025 being zero-emission, primarily battery-electric. Major manufacturers like MAN and BYD Europe lead the market, while nations like Denmark are achieving 50% fleet electrification ahead of 2030 targets. By 2030, over 100,000 zero-emission buses are projected for operation across the EU.

In the mean time the Trump admin has put an end to almost all renewable energy projects created by Biden

That's a good report to see. I can think of many ways that city electric buses could be made to be 100% of those fleets, and school busses could be 100% too.

As a person who knows machines, seeing MAN means the best machines there are. Ship main engines are the MAN's I mostly have seen and have operated during my life time. It's not that they are good, they are awesome.

-----

At the moment I don't think I would trust any report as to what the percent of electric cars might be in California. It's shifting so quickly here, where I am it seems like electrics are now over 50%, but that might be just because about half of the cars I see are tourists, and about 1/2 of the tourist cars seem to be electric as well

People driving a car on a tourist trip are driving long distances, seeing more than half of those cars being electric is an impressive thing indeed.

Tesla's make up more than half of the electric cars I do see. We have a large Tesla charging center in my tiny town, it can charge about 30 of them at once, and charge them from a solar cell farm.

Not far from me down in the bottom of the gorge, a tiny place has an all solar power company. It's PG&E, the same company, but they were able to build a stand alone all solar power plant there for less money than rebuilding their power line to that place after a fire destroyed that entire section of power line. I drove their and looked at it, It has a propane engine back up just in case, but it was not running the propane engine when I was there, and the propane tank for it wasn't that large. That power plane has been there for more than five years, I have heard of no problems with it.

On topic, if this war causes our at home power use to shift even just 20% toward all electric, that would be seen as a war win for me.

In my view if we don't stop this shift of climate change away from the disaster I see coming, I would see a sudden several billion person die off of human beings a coming. I think the world population has gone from just under one billion to slightly 8 billion just in my life time. However I haven't specifically looked those numbers up recently.

 

[efil4]