United States vs. Venezuela

[superchuck500]

For some time now, the US has been concentrating naval forces (with Marine detachments) in the Caribbean and general vicinity of Venezuela. Observers have expected some kind of operation there but what that would be wasn't clear. In the past days, the USA's high-profile destruction of an alleged Venezuelan narcotics vessel (including Rubio's explanation that the vessel - not carrying any sort of flag and operated by assumed civilians - was destroyed and its 11 occupants instead of arrested based on orders directly from Trump because it "was an immediate danger to the United States") appears to be setting up some kind of pretext for additional action, a Venezuelan 'Gulf of Tonkin incident' if you will. Trump has indeed promised that this is the beginning of a campaign.

Critics have pointed that the US military's action against the vessel likely violated both international law and well-established US policy. Others have said it is likely that the vessel had migrants and not narcotics. And of course with Trump and his henchmen, the given explanation (combating drug trafficking) is never the actual reason - it's always something more directly tied to Trump's ego and thirst for accolades and retribution.

From a post last week on the buildup:

U.S. Navy Destroyers, Submarine, Amphibious Ships Being Sent Toward Venezuela

The White House calls Venezuelan ruler Maduro a "narco-terrorist" and is deploying ships, planes and Marines in a major show of force.

www.twz.com

Analysis on the legal implications of the destruction of the vessel and its 11 occupants.

Legal Issues Raised by a Lethal U.S. Military Attack in the Caribbean

The Trump administration’s extraordinary lethal attack on this purported smuggling vessel raises significant potential legal issues.

www.justsecurity.org

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

The actual military guy in that photo looks like “what the fork am I doing here with these idiots?” Trump looks completely detached and Hegseth looks like the kid in junior high trying to convince the teacher he knows his subject matter.

It honestly looks to me like he's thinking, "am I gonna have to refuse a direct order. Yep, they're gonna make me have to refuse a direct order. Well, I had a good run while it lasted." He definitely doesn't want to be in that situation, but more than that, he looks like he's contemplating the gravity of the situation and it's weighing heavily on him.

It looks like the silent and still version of this reaction:

Shocked Agree GIF - Shocked Agree - Discover & Share GIFs

Click to view the GIF

tenor.com

 

[superchuck500]

Why Venezuela?

The United States is amassing an armada in the Caribbean as Trump figures out his endgame with Maduro.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[superchuck500]

 

[Optimus Prime]

A secret memo from the Department of Justicethat green-lights U.S airstrikes on alleged “drug boats” reveals that the justification for such force is based entirely on assertions made by Donald Trump.

The U.S. military has carried out a series of strikes targeting so-called “narco-terrorists,” with the White House criticized for not providing a specific legal basis for its actions.

The attacks on small boats in the Caribbean began on September 2 and have since expanded with assaults on the eastern Pacific, killing at least 80 people in 20 strikes on alleged smuggling craft.

According to the memo, seen by The New York Times, such strikes are deemed appropriate because of the idea that the U.S. and its allies are at present legally in a state of armed conflict with drug cartels – assertions that the White House has repeatedly made.

As a result, the killing of those suspected of running the drugs falls within the lawful purview of Trump’s wartime powers, the outlet added.

This contrasts with human rights groups and experts on international law who have warned that the strikes are illegal, with the governments of both Venezuela and Colombia accusing the Trump administration of engaging in extrajudicial murder……..

DOJ memo that OKs US ‘drug boat’ strikes is based ‘entirely on a Trump theory’

At least 80 people have been killed in 20 strikes on alleged smuggling boats

www.independent.co.uk

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

The Nazi's in Germany started out by building forced labor camps. The first was Dachau in Germany. That was their proof of concept site. Once Dachau got their system of brutality and extermination fine tuned, they used that as the model to create other forced labor camps. These are also known as concentration camps, because they were used to concentrate and imprison the people they hated.

The forced labor camps stole anything of value from the prisoners, including dental fillings and their hair which was sold to furriers. They also literally worked people to death and abused people to death, but their primary purpose was for slave labor. In the series Andor, Andor ends up in a forced labor prison with other people who were arrested just to make slaves out of them. The prisoners were all building components of the Death Star. The Nazi's used the same tactic. Most of the slave labor was for the benefit of the Nazi's war machine.

The Nazi's built a whole bunch of the forced labor camps, but then they started building extermination camps, known as death camps and concentration camps. Those camps served only one function, systemic mass murder. The Nazi's didn't build any of their extermination camps in Germany. They were all built in Poland after they invaded and occupied Poland and they transferred people there by the millions from all over the parts of Europe that they controlled.

This is how all of the above ties into Venezuela. If Republicans and Trump invade and occupy Venezuela, then I think that they will set up their extermination camps there and start deporting everyone they kidnap there to be murdered. I don’t think it will just be people kidnapped from here. They will also kidnap anyone they think is migrating to the US from south of our border and send them to their Venezuelan death camps to be murdered.

They can't set up mass volume murder camps here without it being publicly exposed, but they can keep it hidden in Venezuela. Republicans and Trump idolize the Nazi’s and have been doing their best to emulate how the Nazi’s rose to power. That’s why I think they will build extermination camps if they invade and occupy another country.

 

[efil4]

Was never about drugs
Was never about deposing Maduro

It was oil.( we already knew this)

 

[Dragon]

Was never about drugs
Was never about deposing Maduro

It was oil.( we already knew this)

Blackmail - pure and simple. He runs the presidency as a mob boss.

 

[efil4]

Blackmail - pure and simple. He runs the presidency as a mob boss.

He has to accommodate Big Oil after they spent anywhere between an estimated $96mm to 450mm for Trump in 2024.

However I did some research and found that Orinoco crude is much harder to refine. So it's not as lucrative due to the quality. It's about control.

 

[Maxp]

He has to accommodate Big Oil after they spent anywhere between an estimated $96mm to 450mm for Trump in 2024.

However I did some research and found that Orinoco crude is much harder to refine. So it's not as lucrative due to the quality. It's about control.

Our refineries are mostly setup to refine sour crude.

 

[bird]

Our refineries are mostly setup to refine sour crude.

There are several in the US that can process Venezuelan heavy oil. West coast has several. Citgo in Lemont, IL can as they were part of PVDSA.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

There are several in the US that can process Venezuelan heavy oil. West coast has several. Citgo in Lemont, IL can as they were part of PVDSA.

My understanding is that it costs more volume for volume to refine the Venezuelan oil than it does other oils, so it either eats into profit margins are raises the price of gasoline.

 

[bird]

My understanding is that it costs more volume for volume to refine the Venezuelan oil than it does other oils, so it either eats into profit margins are raises the price of gasoline.

Oh, sure. I looked and the AI overview talked about requiring cracking and coking to refine. Those operations are more costly to build. The overview did say that often heavy oils are sold at a discount due to those costs.

The entire thing is similar to the idea of fracking. In that case it is technically recoverable vs economically recoverable. The price of oil must be high enough to be profitable for production.

 

[MT15]

Maybe we need to update this thread title?

 

[Maxp]

We literally have to mix imported sour crudes with sweet domestic crudes in order to refine the domestic stuff at many US refineries. I believe most US refineries were built for sour Arab crudes, many of which are now owned by Arabs. It's much easier to mix crudes than to rework the refining process for different oils.

 

[efil4]

Considering the current state of affairs amidst the Epstein files, i would put the odds on Venezuelan strike higher than 50%

if the whole situation blows up into a massive issue, 75% ( Congressional vote on releasing all documents )

75%

This dropped tonite..NOTAM (notice to air missions)



These get issued ahead of military actions (training or otherwise)

 

[efil4]

new NOTAM

 

[superchuck500]

 

[efil4]