The Bernie Sanders Is Probably [Now Not] Going To Be The Nominee Thread (1 Viewer)

[EmBeeFiveOhFour]

We have a running thread about the 2020 Democratic race at large, but 538 is now showing that Bernie Sanders has a nearly 50% chance of carrying a majority of delegates into the Democratic National Convention (with the current runner up being "no one has a majority" at close to 40%). At some point in the near future--maybe as soon as Super Tuesday next week when he wins California--it will be time to acknowledge that Sanders is the probable nominee and there is nothing Biden or Bloomberg or anyone else in the race now can do to stop it. So, what happens then?

I know that the Trump voters will say he's crazy and use that as their excuse for voting for Trump (who they were voting for anyway under any circumstance, let's all be clear and honest about that). But how does everyone else feel about it?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I think a split in the Democratic party would be good for that party and the nation. The radicals have been infiltrating that party and ruining it from within. Let them run under their own banner.

Be careful what you wish for, that's what I was thinking with the Republican party, and I ended up with Trump as President.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

So, do any of the folks here thinking of voting for Bernie have retirement accounts?

I wonder what the news of a Bernie election would do to the stock market?

Yes, and news of Bernie's election will probably spook the market, but so what? I'm 20 years away from retirement. Month to month, and year to year fluctuations don't bother me.

If you're closer to retirement, you should't be highly exposed to stocks anyway.

 

[Beach Friends]

Be careful what you wish for, that's what I was thinking with the Republican party, and I ended up with Trump as President.

I don't know how a split in the Democratic party would result in the election of Bernie.

There are two schools of thought as to what would be the best for the GOP.

One, Bernie is nominated and not only does he lose, but his presence on the ticket results in downstream Democratic losses. I don't know how sound that prediction is. He has an excited base and it may result in more congressional members like AOC.

The second is that Bernie doesn't get the nomination and his more extreme followers lose their minds and perhaps, at the very least decide they will not support the candidate selected by the DNC. Maybe they leave the Democratic party feeling they will never get a fair shake.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I don't know how a split in the Democratic party would result in the election of Bernie.

There are two schools of thought as to what would be the best for the GOP.

One, Bernie is nominated and not only does he lose, but his presence on the ticket results in downstream Democratic losses. I don't know how sound that prediction is. He has an excited base and it may result in more congressional members like AOC.

The second is that Bernie doesn't get the nomination and his more extreme followers lose their minds and perhaps, at the very least decide they will not support the candidate selected by the DNC. Maybe they leave the Democratic party feeling they will never get a fair shake.

So, I mean wishing for a contentious candidate that you believe embodies the extremes of another party. I figured the Republican party would split after nominating someone like Trump.

Now, it's possible that Republicans are bit more loyal to the brand than Democrats are, but tribalism is a powerful motivator, and Trump is intensely disliked by a lot of people.

Imagine, if a failed businessman who has declared bankruptcy three times and can't prove his success as a businessman, who's brand is being an butt crevasse and was caught on tape talking about trying to sleep with a married acquaintance (while he was engaged to his soon to be 3rd wife), and grabbing women by the ****, can be elected president, are you that confident that Bernie can't be elected?

 

[Beach Friends]

So, I mean wishing for a contentious candidate that you believe embodies the extremes of another party. I figured the Republican party would split after nominating someone like Trump.

Now, it's possible that Republicans are bit more loyal to the brand than Democrats are, but tribalism is a powerful motivator, and Trump is intensely disliked by a lot of people.

Imagine, if a failed businessman who has declared bankruptcy three times and can't prove his success as a businessman, who's brand is being an butt crevasse and was caught on tape talking about trying to sleep with a married acquaintance (while he was engaged to his soon to be 3rd wife), and grabbing women by the ****, can be elected president, are you that confident that Bernie can't be elected?

See, that's why I say I don't have a lot of confidence in the first scenario.

But, I didn't say I hoped for Bernie to get the nomination. I skipped over the "how" and said I wanted a split. I don't want a Bernie nomination that doesn't result in people coming to their senses and realizing that socialism sucks.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

See, that's why I say I don't have a lot of confidence in the first scenario.

But, I didn't say I hoped for Bernie to get the nomination. I skipped over the "how" and said I wanted a split. I don't want a Bernie nomination that doesn't result in people coming to their senses and realizing that socialism sucks.

That's what I was hoping for with the Republicans - to get away from the stupid nationalist populism, anti-intellectualism and so on. Didn't turn out the way I thought.

 

[SystemShock]

Why do you think that would happen? There are other countries with universal healthcare, is that what happens there? Looking at numbers of doctor visits and procedures per capita in Europe, that isn't what is happening. Rate of care is roughly equal to what is happening in the US.

Other countries have had universal healthcare for a long, long time, and we aren't Europe. If universal healthcare becomes a reality, do you think the visits/procedures per capita in the U.S. are going to stay the same as they are now?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Other countries have had universal healthcare for a long, long time, and we aren't Europe. If universal healthcare becomes a reality, do you think the visits/procedures per capita in the U.S. are going to stay the same as they are now?

Probably. I suspect you'll get fewer emergency room visits and more primary care visits.

 

[SystemShock]

Probably. I suspect you'll get fewer emergency room visits and more primary care visits.

How you figure?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

How you figure?

Well, right now uninsured people go to the emergency room to get routine care, since they have to take everyone and they just write off the people who can't pay. If those people are insured, they'll make an appointment with their primary care physician instead. Further, they're going to be more likely to get treatment early, including vaccinations - instead of having a heart attack, they'll be on statins, instead of suffering upper respitory failure, they'll have gotten a flu shot, and so on.

Ideally you're substituting expensive treatment for more preventive care, as well as freeing up the emergency rooms to deal with actual emergencies.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I do think Medicare for all has some political issues that I'm not sure Bernie supporters are considering. The Democrats lost in 2016 in large part because of blue collar workers in the mid-west. Those workers tend to be union workers with hard fought health care benefits, and they are likely going to be reluctant to give those up in exchange for something that is likely going to be not as good. A strong and compelling case would need to be made to those workers how they are going to be better off overall.

 

[MT15]

I do think Medicare for all has some political issues that I'm not sure Bernie supporters are considering. The Democrats lost in 2016 in large part because of blue collar workers in the mid-west. Those workers tend to be union workers with hard fought health care benefits, and they are likely going to be reluctant to give those up in exchange for something that is likely going to be not as good. A strong and compelling case would need to be made to those workers how they are going to be better off overall.

And the only answer I’ve ever seen Bernie or a surrogate give when that is brought up is to just dismiss it outright. Bernie said nobody likes their health insurance. I suppose we will find out.

 

[The moose]

Well, right now uninsured people go to the emergency room to get routine care, since they have to take everyone and they just write off the people who can't pay. If those people are insured, they'll make an appointment with their primary care physician instead. Further, they're going to be more likely to get treatment early, including vaccinations - instead of having a heart attack, they'll be on statins, instead of suffering upper respitory failure, they'll have gotten a flu shot, and so on.

Ideally you're substituting expensive treatment for more preventive care, as well as freeing up the emergency rooms to deal with actual emergencies.

Ahhh exactly.

Man emergency rooms are full of people. The time before last i needed to get patched up the wait was insane.

Got hit by a car riding my bike knocked out a couple teeth and got 17 stitches. It took all night like 7 hours. And Everytime I was almost to the front of the line in comes a kid with a broken limb. Me and this poor dude that cut the crap out of his hand with a table saw waited an eternity.


I really don't see what all the fuss is about. When people get preventive care will save huge amounts of money in the long run.

What costs more blood pressure meds or strokes and rehab?

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

And the only answer I’ve ever seen Bernie or a surrogate give when that is brought up is to just dismiss it outright. Bernie said nobody likes their health insurance. I suppose we will find out.

Yes, we will, I think there will definitely be some resistance there.

 

[Beach Friends]

Yes, we will, I think there will definitely be some resistance there.

I guess we will find out if the oil and gas industry likes the Green New Deal too. I suspect not.

All this talk about Bernie taking Texas in November-does not seem likely.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

I guess we will find out if the oil and gas industry likes the Green New Deal too. I suspect not.

All this talk about Bernie taking Texas in November-does not seem likely.

It's not likely, but I thought Trump taking Michigan was pretty unlikely as well... so who knows.

 

[wardorican]

Report: Universal Healthcare Would Be 'Boon' to Businesses - PNHP

By Bob Herman Becker's Hospital CFO, April 9, 2014A new report from nonpartisan advocacy group Public Citizen said a publicly funded healthcare system that guarantees universal coverage would not only reduce healthcare costs — it would also be an economic relief for employers and businesses.By...

pnhp.org

https://www.citizen.org/wp-content/uploads/severing-the-ties-that-bind-business-universal-healthcare-report.pdf

Study: Single-Payer Health System Feasible, Could Save $1.8 Trillion in 10 Years

A new study shows that expanding Medicare to every American citizen would not only achieve universal coverage and trillions in savings, but it's also feasible to implement based on legislation that has already been proposed.

www.beckershospitalreview.com

The Pro-business Argument for Single-payer Healthcare - Harvard Political Review

Only through the collaboration of all public and private actors can truly progressive change, such as the implementation of a more efficient, publicly-funded healthcare system, take place.

harvardpolitics.com

The pro-business argument
With the exception of companies no longer enjoying additional leverage against employees by providing them with healthcare, single-payer health care would be hugely beneficial to businesses. Such a system would support American businesses and the working class. Instead of paying a per employee premium, the business would pay a proportionally smaller tax to the government to offset the cost of single-payer coverage. One of the major problems with this idea is the political implications of suggesting a corporate tax. However, such a tax would actually decrease the explicit costs for U.S. businesses, by substituting for healthcare costs. For example, instead of GM charging an additional $1,500 per car to support employee health care, they would simply pay a minute fraction of production profits to cover universal health care.

An opinion piece..

Universal healthcare could save America trillions: what’s holding us back?

A slew of studies are confirming that America can afford real universal healthcare, but some call it economically infeasible

www.theguardian.com

 

[SystemShock]

Well, right now uninsured people go to the emergency room to get routine care, since they have to take everyone and they just write off the people who can't pay. If those people are insured, they'll make an appointment with their primary care physician instead. Further, they're going to be more likely to get treatment early, including vaccinations - instead of having a heart attack, they'll be on statins, instead of suffering upper respitory failure, they'll have gotten a flu shot, and so on.

Ideally you're substituting expensive treatment for more preventive care, as well as freeing up the emergency rooms to deal with actual emergencies.

In an ideal world, sure. But you can't plan on ideal worlds. And there's more to hospitals than just emergency rooms. I live in a relatively small city. The metro area has about 600,000 inhabitants. There are 2 large hospitals here in constant construction. There's another one about 30 miles from here, in constant construction as well. You go get a minor medical procedure, and it is like being on a medical conveyor belt.

I get a full physical (or what amounts to a full physical these days) every 1-2 years. Every year, it takes longer to get an appointment to see a doctor.

And that is with our current exorbitant health care prices and half the country not going to see doctors.

So, yes, before the flood gates are opened, I want to hear a plan about expanding infrastructure.

And again, I reiterate, I am not against universal healthcare, on the contrary, I am in favor of it. I just want to hear an actual plan. "Healthcare for everyone, the rich are paying for it" is not a plan.

And I probably should stop saying "the rich are paying for it" since Sanders already said middle class taxes are going up too.