Senate Election Thread (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

So there are 35 Senate seats contested in November. Use this thread to talk about them.

Here's a tracker site:

2020 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin

Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 35 Senate races in the 2020 elections.

www.270towin.com

 

[zztop]

I don’t think Vance is ahead. Certainly not by 8 points. We’ll see, I suppose.

538 has him ahead by less, but emerson college polling has him at 8 (I don't know how reputable emerson is)

Vance widens lead over Ryan in final stretch of Ohio Senate race: poll

Republican J.D. Vance has expanded his lead over Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) in the race for Ohio’s open Senate seat, according to a new poll. Emerson College’s final survey of the state’s midterm elect…

thehill.com

A large plurality of respondents, 47 percent, listed the economy as the most important issue in determining their vote. Threats to democracy came in second with 14 percent, followed by abortion access with 12 percent.

 

[MT15]

I still think the polls are not correct. I think the polls are ignoring the youth vote. I don’t know about Ohio, but Ryan is a much stronger candidate than Vance. If Vance wins Ohio, it will be similar to Walker winning GA. Just indicative of an overall decline.

 

[samiam5211]

We need to start making our peace with idiocracy.

 

[wardorican]

I still think the polls are not correct. I think the polls are ignoring the youth vote. I don’t know about Ohio, but Ryan is a much stronger candidate than Vance. If Vance wins Ohio, it will be similar to Walker winning GA. Just indicative of an overall decline.

You are making the fatal error of assuming voters are paying attention or thinking about anything than the D or R next to the candidate's name.

Inflation and the economy are the main issues. The democrats are focusing on abortion rights. Which fires up a lot of dolks, but doesnt move the needle for others. They should be touting student loan forgiveness as a huge tax break that will help boost the economy. Remind people that many of these issues are echos from covid finally coming home to roost and what they are doing about it. How their desire of universal health care would be a way to ensure no one else had to go bankrupt over normal medical care.

I could go on, but it's early. And like I said, those voters aren't paying attention.

 

[Optimus Prime]

for what it's worth I read something over the weekend saying that

1. All the media's predictions of a red wave may be to help drive democratic turnout

2. It's in the media's best interest to make people think that the races are razor thin, and there will be upsets to keep you watching all day tomorrow

 

[coldseat]

for what it's worth I read something over the weekend saying that

1. All the media's predictions of a red wave may be to help drive democratic turnout

2. It's in the media's best interest to make people think that the races are razor thin, and there will be upsets to keep you watching all day tomorrow

While right wing media is specifically designed to enhance Republican propaganda and candidates, I've seen scant evidence that the normal media does anything to specifically enhance Democrats or Democratic candidates and messaging. At best, the regular media is a double edged sword for Democrats (as they should be). Which is why there is such a messaging imbalance and why Republican framing of issues always seems to prevail in media discourse.

The second point is certainly true though.

 

[MT15]

The framing I saw was that R polls are being eagerly put out by the R campaigns to try to discourage Ds from voting, thinking it won’t matter. D polls are not being put out there because Ds don’t want their voters to think that Ds are ahead, thereby thinking they don’t need to bother to vote.

Disparate people are saying Ds will prevail. From Michael Moore to Bill Kristol.

All we can do is wait and see.

 

[SystemShock]

We need to start making our peace with idiocracy.

As long as the stock market holds and I can get 4% annual return, and I live like a king in MX...

 

[bdb13]

We need to start making our peace with idiocracy.

I'm going down kicking and screaming thank you very much.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

We need to start making our peace with idiocracy.

That would be the best case scenario, considering that the religious right has embraced the radical right, I was thinking more along the lines of Gilead!

 

[samiam5211]

That would be the best case scenario, considering that the religious right has embraced the radical right, I was thinking more along the lines of Gilead!

It would be a combination.

They would have the same rules as Gilead, but all the babies would look like Hershel Walker.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

I still think the polls are not correct. I think the polls are ignoring the youth vote. I don’t know about Ohio, but Ryan is a much stronger candidate than Vance. If Vance wins Ohio, it will be similar to Walker winning GA. Just indicative of an overall decline.

If the recent past is any indication, most polls skew too much in favor of Democrats due to right-wing voters disguising their intentions.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

We need to start making our peace with idiocracy.

Well said. Nothing will save this country from the boundless ignorance of the average voter.

 

[MT15]

If the recent past is any indication, most polls skew too much in favor of Democrats due to right-wing voters disguising their intentions.

This is what I meant by the pollsters fighting the last war instead of this one. They may have overcorrected. And the new voters (of which there are a lot) are not really reachable.

Some of the polls are under sampling women, I read. The GA electorate has never been less than 50% women ( and IIRC more like 53%) yet some polls are sampling only 45-46% women. (figures are approximate - going from memory here).

I could be totally wrong, but I hope I’m not. It’s pretty funny to me that all you guys find it so easy to dismiss this view though. Why would anyone feel confident about this election?

 

[DaveXA]

This is what I meant by the pollsters fighting the last war instead of this one. They may have overcorrected. And the new voters (of which there are a lot) are not really reachable.

Some of the polls are under sampling women, I read. The GA electorate has never been less than 50% women ( and IIRC more like 53%) yet some polls are sampling only 45-46% women. (figures are approximate - going from memory here).

I could be totally wrong, but I hope I’m not. It’s pretty funny to me that all you guys find it so easy to dismiss this view though. Why would anyone feel confident about this election?

I don't think it's dismissing the view as much as I think the undercounting one group will be offset by the same with another group, so they sort of end up canceling out. I will say this, with a lot of people, they think they'll vote differently, but when they get in the voting booth, they often revert to the party they're in regardless what they've heard or see. The force of habit is hard to break.

 

[MT15]

I don't think it's dismissing the view as much as I think the undercounting one group will be offset by the same with another group, so they sort of end up canceling out. I will say this, with a lot of people, they think they'll vote differently, but when they get in the voting booth, they often revert to the party they're in regardless what they've heard or see. The force of habit is hard to break.

And that’s fine and probably true. It won’t make the difference this election, IMO. My belief is that there are plenty of people who aren’t died in the wool R who haven’t forgotten what Rs have decided that they stand for. And they will act on it. But I could be wrong. I will admit it. What I haven’t seen is anyone who thinks Rs are going to win everything admit they could be wrong. That’s what I find interesting.

 

[DaveXA]

And that’s fine and probably true. It won’t make the difference this election, IMO. My belief is that there are plenty of people who aren’t died in the wool R who haven’t forgotten what Rs have decided that they stand for. And they will act on it. But I could be wrong. I will admit it. What I haven’t seen is anyone who thinks Rs are going to win everything admit they could be wrong. That’s what I find interesting.

Yeah, well, being a former Republican, they're a proud, arrogant bunch and admitting they're wrong doesn't come easily.

 

[SystemShock]

... I can't remember if I cried
when I heard about it's widowed bride
but something touch me deep inside
the day, democracy, died.

So bye, bye, Miss American Pie
drove my chevy caddy to the levee
but the levee was dry.

Then good old boys wanted Pelosi to hang...
singing this will be the day that democracy dies.