Post-Election Results Analysis (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

The election data is always very interesting. Let's have a thread to discuss it so that it doesn't get washed away in the gameday thread.

We always suspected that a portion of the Trump vote in 2016 will leave him based on overall distaste with his conduct as president. There appears to be some evidence of that emerging . . . here's some from Wisconsin.

 

[DaveXA]

A strict 40 hour work week would be much more feasible if we had some sort of M4A and businesses paid a living wage. If 40 hours a week does not work, the solution isn't to work more, it's to be compensated fairly.

I don't disagree, but as it is now, 40 hours doesn't pay the bills for too many people.

 

[SystemShock]

Is opposing socialism a strong play with the broad Hispanic population? I'm sure it is with Cuban Americans, but I don't know enough about other populations. That wasn't my initial thought though.

It's complicated. And the propensity to utilize labels and soundbites to define "socialism" and "Latino" or "Hispanic community" makes it worse, as people have different perceptions or definitions for them. I could write a lot about this, but consider the following generic, broad brush points (I'll use "you" as the generic "you", not you personally):

Iowans and New Yorkers, you can label them "Americans", but you know they are not the same: they don't live in the same conditions, they view socio-political issues from different perspectives, etc; That is no different from saying "Mexican" and "Colombian", from example. They may fit the label "Latino", but there are marked differences between them.

Views on Socialism, they are going to depend on a number of factors. If you are of Cuban descent, you are indoctrinated against anything "Socialism" or"Communism" since birth. If you are Mexican, then Socialism is not a dirty word, as Mexico has a number of Socialist programs that people in Mexico expect, like free education, healthcare, price control of food staples, etc. If you are Nicaraguan, you may not remember Somoza, but you probably remember the Junta. If you are Venezuelan, hearing"Socialism" doesn't hit you as hard as hearing "Maduro".

Then there is the generational gap. An immigrant from Mexico, or 1st generation U.S. born, may hear Dems talk about Socialist programs like free education and healthcare, and be 100% on board. A 3rd, 4th generation "Latino", who has a large college debt, may not be down with the idea of his taxes going up to pay college tuition for someone else (whether it is the message or what actually happens).

So, yeah, complicated.

 

[Dragon]

It depends. A lot of people are capable of working 50-60 hours per week with little drop-off in productivity. There are a lot of variables. I can assure you that people would rather make time and a half working for a company 60 hours than working 2 jobs making regular wages for 60 hours. In a lot of circumstances, 40 hours per week isn't enough for the head of a family of 5. When I was younger, I frequently worked 50-60 hours per week. I was fine with it. I know people who worked 2 full time jobs for years. It was rough, but they felt it was worth it to them to provide for their family. So I'm not really a fan of limiting hours to 40.

That said, more and more companies are now limiting hours to 30 or less. That's also not feasible. Too many underemployed people have to get government support or second jobs. That no easy way to live either. This neat 40 hours per week ideal is pretty rare in practice.

It is possible but the number of errors goes up. I work in QA/IT and it takes 10x the time to fix an error than to get it right from the start.
Productivity is not only measured in output but even more so in the quality of the output. Here companies do not want employees with more than one job and most employment contracts directly forbid it. They don't want tired Employees

But then again - they do pay a living wage - even for 37 hours (which is the weekly norm here)

 

[DaveXA]

It is possible but the number of errors goes up. I work in QA/IT and it takes 10x the time to fix an error than to get it right from the start.
Productivity is not only measured in output but even more so in the quality of the output. Here companies do not want employees with more than one job and most employment contracts directly forbid it. They don't want tired Employees

But then again - they do pay a living wage - even for 37 hours (which is the weekly norm here)

If it's a highly labor intensive or complex job, I can agree with the idea that performance drops off at around 40 hours. But not all jobs are like that. They don't all require the same level of precision. So it depends.

 

[JimEverett]

Is opposing socialism a strong play with the broad Hispanic population? I'm sure it is with Cuban Americans, but I don't know enough about other populations. That wasn't my initial thought though.

I am not sure. My instinct tells me that first and second generation immigrants to the US ae going to largely be against socialism. I am sure that does not apply to all Hispanic groups, but then again if a party adopts such a strategy they don;t have to win 100% of the vote, or even 50%.

I think SBTB has made a good point about COVID's effect and whether much can really be learned from this particular election. Most of us probably agree as well that Trump's presence makes it a rather unique election - was it his personality itself that was pulling in a slightly higher share of the Hispanic/Latino vote for the most part.
Regardless of that though, I think Trump has given REpublicans a path towards building a potentially winning coalition in the changing demographics of the country. Whether they can execute it, or execute it consistently, is a completely different matter.

 

[bdb13]

If it's a highly labor intensive or complex job, I can agree with the idea that performance drops off at around 40 hours. But not all jobs are like that. They don't all require the same level of precision. So it depends.

Look man, at the end of my produce delivery route I'm so burned out that I just start giving the shirt away.

(No it's actually very easy, think I could consistently do 55 to 60 hours in this job without it being a thing and wish I was getting hours like that)

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I know a number of Latino men and women that are BIG Trump fans. In all cases, these are people that have a strong nativist bent. They are all second-generation Mexicans that take tremendous pride in being American. Most of them are more vehemently pro-Trump than most of my white Trumpian friends.

That to me is the Republican in to grown their Latino support without hurting their rural support, which tends to be about white nativism. Focus the message on pro-Americana. If you get into questions of economics or immigration, you lose. If you try and make it an anti-cultural inclusion message, you lose. I think they have a path to 40% Latino support which keeps them competitive for another generation. I just think it's hard to reach out to any other group when so much of your support is about white populism. That is one heck of a tight rope to walk.

 

[Dragon]

If it's a highly labor intensive or complex job, I can agree with the idea that performance drops off at around 40 hours. But not all jobs are like that. They don't all require the same level of precision. So it depends.

That maybe where the difference is. We have very few jobs for unskilled labor and a high degree of automation. You even need to pass a "Food handling and hygiene" exam to be able to work at McD. That is a 4 week mandatory course with an exam required by all who work with food - even at McD

 

[DaveXA]

That maybe where the difference is. We have very few jobs for unskilled labor and a high degree of automation. You even need to pass a "Food handling and hygiene" exam to be able to work at McD. That is a 4 week mandatory course with an exam required by all who work with food - even at McD

Yeah, we're talking about 2 much different economies and cultures. We're a long way from getting to that point, if ever.

 

[JimEverett]

I know a number of Latino men and women that are BIG Trump fans. In all cases, these are people that have a strong nativist bent. They are all second-generation Mexicans that take tremendous pride in being American. Most of them are more vehemently pro-Trump than most of my white Trumpian friends.

That to me is the Republican in to grown their Latino support without hurting their rural support, which tends to be about white nativism. Focus the message on pro-Americana. If you get into questions of economics or immigration, you lose. If you try and make it an anti-cultural inclusion message, you lose. I think they have a path to 40% Latino support which keeps them competitive for another generation. I just think it's hard to reach out to any other group when so much of your support is about white populism. That is one heck of a tight rope to walk.

That is a good point about pro-Americana. I think it is fair to say that in post WW2 America the Republican PArty has its roots in the western U.S. Consider that beginning with Ike, 13 of the 14 nominees for PResident till Trump were residents of a state west of the Mississippi. And the western mindset during that time was pure American optimism and I think many of those candidates exuded it to some degree or another. But NYC resident Trump didn;t exude that optimism imo - or at least not in a very similar way. And that goes beyond just perceptions of him being mean-spirited, it was easy to paint him and view him as being somewhat ominous.
Not sure if the party can really go back to that at this time.

 

[JRad]

Re: A few posters

I've also found, by and large, those who kvetch about socialism don't actually know what it is. I was walking my dog the other day and heard one neighbor complaining about it to another and used China as an example. China. I'm just amazed at the zero effort people put into vetting what they're told, if it sounds too good or too bad to be true - it probably is.

The problem is most businesses are much more interested in profit than the people who actually generate it. I could find a job that pays a lot better than the one I have but I doubt I could find a job that pays a lot better and offers the same level of benefits and pays for those benefits instead of taking them out of my check and offers me vacation and sick leave and offers the retirement matching mine does and offers the level of job security I enjoy. AND! I don't even get drug tested lol.

Same. My employer put a big emphasis on perks - we have totally free health insurance with zero deductible, unlimited PTO and 6% 401k match. We used to do company lunches and other social things, but those are obviously shut down. Yea, I could probably make more somewhere else but would it be worth losing the perks? So totally agree with you here.

 

[MT15]

I like this take.

 

[SaintForLife]

Assuming that Trump won't run again in 2024, it seems like the Democrats need to make some changes. They won't have a divisive person like Trump to attack. Most Republicans performed well or exceeded expectations outside of Trump.

Analysis: This Democratic congresswoman just spoke some hard truth to her party

On a call with her colleagues Thursday -- less than 48 hours after House Democrats failed to gain the seats that their leaders and political prognosticators predicted they would -- Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) stopped being polite, and started being real.

www.google.com

 

[bdb13]

Very interesting

 

[GrandAdmiral]

538's model talk podcast this week was really throwing out excuses as to why polling was off this cycle.

Main culprit, if I heard him correctly, led to more Democrats being available than Republicans.

 

[J-DONK]

Assuming that Trump won't run again in 2024, it seems like the Democrats need to make some changes. They won't have a divisive person like Trump to attack. Most Republicans performed well or exceeded expectations outside of Trump.

Analysis: This Democratic congresswoman just spoke some hard truth to her party

On a call with her colleagues Thursday -- less than 48 hours after House Democrats failed to gain the seats that their leaders and political prognosticators predicted they would -- Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) stopped being polite, and started being real.

www.google.com

If you want to understand this on a smaller level, look at Virginia. Democrats completely control that state, and they have done nothing for bottom 80%. They rank last in wage policies, near the bottom in right to unionize, and worker rights/protections. If you don't care about culutural wokeness, why would you vote for Democrats?

538's model talk podcast this week was really throwing out excuses as to why polling was off this cycle.

Main culprit, if I heard him correctly, led to more Democrats being available than Republicans.

The polls weren't insanely off in 2016, this year they were. There is no real reason to listen to them any longer. Some of these polls were off by double digits. Nate, had no idea this was coming, and he does pretend to have some kind of secret sauce with his arbitrary weighing of polls. I consider the political side of Nate's career to be largely over. He will need to focus on sports betting from here on out.

 

[DaveXA]

If you want to understand this on a smaller level, look at Virginia. Democrats completely control that state, and they have done nothing for bottom 80%. They rank last in wage policies, near the bottom in right to unionize, and worker rights/protections. If you don't care about culutural wokeness, why would you vote for Democrats?



The polls weren't insanely off in 2016, this year they were. There is no real reason to listen to them any longer. Some of these polls were off by double digits. Nate, had no idea this was coming, and he does pretend to have some kind of secret sauce with his arbitrary weighing of polls. I consider the political side of Nate's career to be largely over. He will need to focus on sports betting from here on out.

Hey! Why you talk about Virginia that way! Its a great state.

 

[J-DONK]

Hey! Why you talk about Virginia that way! Its a great state.

The cnn article is from a Virginia rep who thinks the reason for losses is socialism, and defund the police talk. I would argue if you do what Spanberger is suggesting and strip away the cultural wokeness, and the small amount of accepted progressive policies you are essentially Republicans.