Post-Election Results Analysis (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

The election data is always very interesting. Let's have a thread to discuss it so that it doesn't get washed away in the gameday thread.

We always suspected that a portion of the Trump vote in 2016 will leave him based on overall distaste with his conduct as president. There appears to be some evidence of that emerging . . . here's some from Wisconsin.

 

[DaveXA]

I keep seeing stats mentioned (not shown) that Trump got the most minority votes of any republican in history. A low bar but is it true? Where is that data?

Yeah, I don't know. But, it's clear he made some unexpected inroads in those communities. Trump got over 70 million votes, and even a small percentage of 70 million people is a hell of a lot of people. I don't know about records, but I find the fact that that many people voted for Trump to be disturbing.

 

[UriUT]

I keep seeing stats mentioned (not shown) that Trump got the most minority votes of any republican in history. A low bar but is it true? Where is that data?

I'll have to find where I saw it, but he made inroads with minorities across the board. That includes Muslims!!!! WTH???? Vietnamese in Orange counties that went 53-36 hillary in 2016 went 53-46 Trump 2020. I don't get it at all (perhaps this socialism attack resonated lik cubans in SE FL). 2% increase in blacks (20% of black men). Even a native american tribe in NC voted for him overwhelmingly (near 80%?). But that can be explained with his promise to recognize that tribe after the election. WTH???? I guess it goes if u trash someone enough, they'll like you???

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

I keep seeing stats mentioned (not shown) that Trump got the most minority votes of any republican in history. A low bar but is it true? Where is that data?

Maybe this is simply an example of the growing ‘minority’ vote as a whole
And then, of course, the desire for many in minority groups to assimilate vs identifying as an ‘other’

 

[BayouSAINTJoe]

I'll have to find where I saw it, but he made inroads with minorities across the board. That includes Muslims!!!! WTH???? Vietnamese in Orange counties that went 53-36 hillary in 2016 went 53-46 Trump 2020. I don't get it at all (perhaps this socialism attack resonated lik cubans in SE FL). 2% increase in blacks (20% of black men). Even a native american tribe in NC voted for him overwhelmingly (near 80%?). But that can be explained with his promise to recognize that tribe after the election. WTH???? I guess it goes if u trash someone enough, they'll like you???

Somehow someone found a way to brand Biden as the racist one...not sure how that happened. A lot of black men bought big into the BS they were peddling:

'94 Crime bill
HBCU funding
Platinum Plan
Black Unemployment
Crime Reform/Prison Reform (whatever you want to call it)
Celebrity Endorsements (lol, but it worked for some)

My take is that it was intellectual laziness on part of those fell for it for not looking deeper into those issues or the motives behind said actions...Another part is what I call "Look at me, I'm different"-ism with some black men. I can't speak to the other minority groups because I don't know many that fit in them, but for the most part, this is what I saw.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I have three family members who voted for Trump. I asked them on our family Facebook group why. One answered “we need to open the economy” and the other two agreed.

That’s purely anecdotal, but I really think a lot of the gains with minorities was really about opening the economy. If you’re a minority who owns a business being effected by COVID restrictions you may think voting for Trump is the best way to save your business.

 

[DaveXA]

I have three family members who voted for Trump. I asked them on our family Facebook group why. One answered “we need to open the economy” and the other two agreed.

That’s purely anecdotal, but I really think a lot of the gains with minorities was really about opening the economy. If you’re a minority who owns a business being effected by COVID restrictions you may think voting for Trump is the best way to save your business.

For sure. This was a huge part of it. I think it's wrong headed, but I totally get the desire to have the economy to open. That said, it's short-sighted to me, because a worsening pandemic will wreck the economy anyway. Opening the economy has always been a false choice. But it's clear business owners will not see it that way.

 

[zztop]

Theres some annoying pop-ups on this site but my friend directed me to this

How Indigenous voters swung the 2020 election - High Country News

In Arizona and Wisconsin, Native turnout — which often leans liberal — made the difference in Biden’s slim but winning margin.

www.hcn.org

on the right are tribal lands and on the left is how they voted

 

[wardorican]

I have three family members who voted for Trump. I asked them on our family Facebook group why. One answered “we need to open the economy” and the other two agreed.

That’s purely anecdotal, but I really think a lot of the gains with minorities was really about opening the economy. If you’re a minority who owns a business being effected by COVID restrictions you may think voting for Trump is the best way to save your business.

Yes, that's what I've heard as well. Really is a false choice though. Sad.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

 

[MT15]

That is a much better thesis from AOC, I’m glad she has gathered herself a bit from the last couple of days.

 

[LA - L.A.]

That is a much better thesis from AOC, I’m glad she has gathered herself a bit from the last couple of days.

I think it's more a case of the people criticizing her have "gathered" themselves a bit. She's been consistent.

 

[RobF]

I think it's more a case of the people criticizing her have "gathered" themselves a bit. She's been consistent.

That's the impression I've had as well. And I saw this thread from a writer on the Democrat's ground-game weakness in some areas this morning (click through for the thread):

 

[J-DONK]

I think it's more a case of the people criticizing her have "gathered" themselves a bit. She's been consistent.

You can tell she is really frustrated, and with good reason at the DNC. She has a great NYT interview were she goes in depth about some of those grievances. I don't know if the common liberal voter even understands that progressives saw big gains overall this election while the house lead shrunk. "The Squad" grew to 7 total members now up from four. It was the centrist that mainly lost. It will be interesting how much influence they have with a slimmer majority in the house. The horror of establishment dems having to listen, or share power with progressives.

 

[superchuck500]

This is a good take.

 

[zztop]

You can tell she is really frustrated, and with good reason at the DNC. She has a great NYT interview were she goes in depth about some of those grievances. I don't know if the common liberal voter even understands that progressives saw big gains overall this election while the house lead shrunk. "The Squad" grew to 7 total members now up from four. It was the centrist that mainly lost. It will be interesting how much influence they have with a slimmer majority in the house. The horror of establishment dems having to listen, or share power with progressives.

just to piggyback off this

 

[DaveXA]

This is a good take.

I wonder what turnout will look like with just the 2 Senator seats on the runoff ballots. Will they be doing the same mail in voting procedures they had in the general election? Does the runoff have the same access to voting?

I understand operatives from both parties are heading to the state to make a big push there. This is gonna be pretty epic. I can't remember ever seeing the balance of power being decided by a single state runoff election.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

You can tell she is really frustrated, and with good reason at the DNC. She has a great NYT interview were she goes in depth about some of those grievances. I don't know if the common liberal voter even understands that progressives saw big gains overall this election while the house lead shrunk. "The Squad" grew to 7 total members now up from four. It was the centrist that mainly lost. It will be interesting how much influence they have with a slimmer majority in the house. The horror of establishment dems having to listen, or share power with progressives.

a national strategy just doesn't work for Dems - it should be a broad coalition that allows for multiple voices where the DNC acts as ref rather than try to set national agenda

 

[wardorican]

You can tell she is really frustrated, and with good reason at the DNC. She has a great NYT interview were she goes in depth about some of those grievances. I don't know if the common liberal voter even understands that progressives saw big gains overall this election while the house lead shrunk. "The Squad" grew to 7 total members now up from four. It was the centrist that mainly lost. It will be interesting how much influence they have with a slimmer majority in the house. The horror of establishment dems having to listen, or share power with progressives.

Yeah, and people should remember. She literally knocked out the Dem incumbent by going door to door. She walks her neighborhood almost daily/nightly when she's in NYC. COVID really got in the way of a lot of it, but she's also been smart to talk about digital platforms and counteracting misinformation and Republican strategies.

I think one of the things I really liked about Pete and his husband is that they felt accessible. Also, the one event I went to, Chasten stuck around and just talked to folks. A lot of people with special interests, or to be blunt, sob stories, he listened to all of it and never looked like he didn't want to hear it all.