Post-Election Results Analysis (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

The election data is always very interesting. Let's have a thread to discuss it so that it doesn't get washed away in the gameday thread.

We always suspected that a portion of the Trump vote in 2016 will leave him based on overall distaste with his conduct as president. There appears to be some evidence of that emerging . . . here's some from Wisconsin.

 

[LA - L.A.]

And despite all that, tonight’s speeches actually give me some hope we may come back together as Americans.

I expect we're going to find out that McConnell has become obsessed with power. He's Gollum of American politics.

 

[Booker]

.

Yet...

Despite his campaign errors, on top of his mismanagement of the Coronavirus pandemic, he still came dangerously close to being re-elected.

That's scary.

...and the constant barrage of lies, the perpetual gas lighting, the blatant corruption, the incessant graft, the joyful divisiveness, the unashamed bigotry, the weakening of our international standing, the mother forking policy to separate children from their parents...

 

[Taurus]

I expect we're going to find out that McConnell has become obsessed with power. He's Gollum of American politics.

Become???

 

[MT15]

I’m holding on to a couple of hopes. One for the two run off elections in GA. In one of them the Democrat is pretty much favored, Rev. Warnock over Loeffler. The other GA race will be more of an uphill battle, but I think it’s possible that Ossof can win. Perdue has acted a fool recently in mocking Kamala Harris openly, hopefully GA voters will take notice.

My second hope is that Biden and McConnell have worked together before. They are said to have an amicable relationship. We know McConnell has no scruples, no guiding compass, so my hope is that he sees some sort of benefit in working with Biden, that he didn’t see in working with Obama. I think I know what the difference will be. (My personal opinion is that McConnell is an extremely bigoted individual, just smart enough to hide it).

 

[Goatman saint]

There are a few things the Democratic Party needs to wash the headlines of. First is the very public support of the LGBTQ group. I’m not saying to get rid of it, I’m saying to lose the headlines. Trump made inroads in a lot of areas because the Republicans did a very nice job of comparing the Democrats as less manly (a shot at the LGBTQ portion). Trump with his fake alpha male empowered the portion of America which thinks rolling coal in your truck is the ultimate sign of being a man. It’s also why mayor Pete will never be elected president. Sorry, and I like mayor Pete.
Next was the defund the police mantra. Yet another, like Obamacare, if the pieces were clearly conveyed people I believe would support. Increased mental health to deal with a portion of cases, having the police dial back the paramilitary force in certain situations. Bring the focus on the mental health and counseling aspect in certain situations. Leave the police for law enforcement. The social work portion take away. But, I know here a lot of people Republican and democrats could see the rioting and at the same time hear defund the police. It dang near sunk the Democrats.
The last part is Trump fit perfectly with a population which is scared. The world is changing. The country that people knew is going away. The Midwest, and other people are scared of the future. Electric cars, solar, AI, all of it. They look at what they know, the lifestyle they grew up and feel comfortable is going away. Coal, fossil fuels are becoming less important. The future scares them. What will become of the rust belt, of the Midwest? The young are leaving, or staying in poor situations. It’s depressing. It’s also become a situation where people see their kids will not have it as good as them in their minds. Trumps swing to make America great again brought up that nostalgia in those areas.

the Democrats need to see this and address this. What future are you going to bring to these areas?

 

[MT15]

This article is a really good discussion of the reasons that Trump has tapped into something and why the election was as close as it was:

Opinion | We Still Don’t Really Understand Trump — or America (Published 2020)

Democrats expected better. What happened?

www.nytimes.com

“Shields said there were 206 counties in America that flipped from Barack Obama to Trump in 2016. Pending final results, 19 are poised to flip back to Biden. That’s partly why Biden did as well as he did, but it’s also why Trump didn’t do worse.

And it speaks to what Sosnik said may be the lesson of the 2020 returns. “A lot of people thought that Trump’s win in 2016 was a bug in the system as opposed to being a central part of the system. But he wasn’t a bug.” The racism and xenophobia that he tapped into, the conspiracies he tilled, the resentments he stoked: These weren’t one-offs, and politicians, including him, aren’t done exploiting them.” ”

“But what adjustments can and should they make going forward? The 2020 election provides some validation for progressive policies: Even as voters in Florida chose Trump in greater numbers than in 2016, they approved an increase in the statewide minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2026. Voters in Arizona endorsed a tax increase on the wealthy.

So I wonder if the overreach of other policies — and the tone of some Democrats — turns many Americans off. I wonder, as Heitkamp does, if some Democrats leave these people feeling more shamed than inspired. I wonder about that word that Heitkamp kept using: judgment.

And I’m mindful that Trump often profited by caricaturing Democrats as scolds who constantly told people that they and America didn’t measure up. Trump refused to be judged. Plenty of Americans liked that.”

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

There are a few things the Democratic Party needs to wash the headlines of. First is the very public support of the LGBTQ group. I’m not saying to get rid of it, I’m saying to lose the headlines. Trump made inroads in a lot of areas because the Republicans did a very nice job of comparing the Democrats as less manly (a shot at the LGBTQ portion). Trump with his fake alpha male empowered the portion of America which thinks rolling coal in your truck is the ultimate sign of being a man. It’s also why mayor Pete will never be elected president. Sorry, and I like mayor Pete.
Next was the defund the police mantra. Yet another, like Obamacare, if the pieces were clearly conveyed people I believe would support. Increased mental health to deal with a portion of cases, having the police dial back the paramilitary force in certain situations. Bring the focus on the mental health and counseling aspect in certain situations. Leave the police for law enforcement. The social work portion take away. But, I know here a lot of people Republican and democrats could see the rioting and at the same time hear defund the police. It dang near sunk the Democrats.
The last part is Trump fit perfectly with a population which is scared. The world is changing. The country that people knew is going away. The Midwest, and other people are scared of the future. Electric cars, solar, AI, all of it. They look at what they know, the lifestyle they grew up and feel comfortable is going away. Coal, fossil fuels are becoming less important. The future scares them. What will become of the rust belt, of the Midwest? The young are leaving, or staying in poor situations. It’s depressing. It’s also become a situation where people see their kids will not have it as good as them in their minds. Trumps swing to make America great again brought up that nostalgia in those areas.

the Democrats need to see this and address this. What future are you going to bring to these areas?

disagree - they will always find effective ways to counter-program (lie)
actually contrary messaging is about the only thing the right does atm -and your example of Obamacare is the perfect example - a moderate R program suddenly becomes marxist medicine
do not play defense against these schmucks
let Biden & Harris and cabinet stay above the fray, but get a Carville or Rahm Emmanuel type to hammer away at R propaganda

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

idle musings:
i think the long terms analysis of the Trump years will hinge on specific hate of Hillary and generalized misogyny

this election was about Covid - the hoaxers who had no socio-cultural or intellectual option but to double down - but some of these might be reachable - the white-supremacist incels are a lost cause - but the mis-informed about covid people might turn around without the 24/7 propaganda

Dems are not going to unify to one message and that should be seen as a strength not a weakness - let the Green New Dealists hash it out publicly with the neolibs - and check the media when they just want to report on 'drama' instead of news

 

[Goatman saint]

I can’t say I don’t disagree with that article. If Trump actually had competent people to run his administration there is no way Biden wins. Trumps problem, and the nation’s salvation in a way, was them at the people he empowered were so bad at their jobs nothing got done in many instances. Look at how many things he tried to do which got tossed in courts easily. It’s almost like he was just there for stirring up stuff, getting people going, while the whole time knowing that nothing would get passed. Allowed him to be the man, while at the same time blaming everyone else for incompetence and unfaithfulness.
It’s an interesting mix really. Like Reagan but with more Bozo the clown.

 

[MT15]

Have to disagree with the public feuding, GMR. I’m afraid this election could be a sort of “one-off” if some democrats do not change their tone.

I’m seeing more of the same old that the left-most part of the Democratic Party has used for a few years now. The unwillingness to listen to even the slightest discussion, unwillingness to compromise one iota. Every suggestion is met by something similar to this comment: “well, excuse me for wanting everyone to have health care” or “I see that you obviously don’t care about social justice”. This idea that if someone isn’t in total lockstep with them, they are the enemy, is a complete turnoff. It has to stop or the democrats will have more seats lost.

Right now, and it is going into its second day, AOC is on Twitter just denouncing people (members of her own party) who want to talk about why the democrats lost seats in the House. She is taking the talk personally because they have suggested that some of the messaging could have been improved. It’s a selfish act on her part, a thin-skinned knee jerk response, imo. She has to be able to listen, even if her feathers are ruffled. Especially if her feathers are ruffled.

Put forth policies that will help people and they will support them. Listen to any and all suggestions with an open mind. Compromise is essential in our form of government. It’s not a dirty word. It doesn’t make people into enemies that they have a slightly different vision.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Have to disagree with the public feuding, GMR. I’m afraid this election could be a sort of “one-off” if some democrats do not change their tone.

I’m seeing more of the same old that the left-most part of the Democratic Party has used for a few years now. The unwillingness to listen to even the slightest discussion, unwillingness to compromise one iota. Every suggestion is met by something similar to this comment: “well, excuse me for wanting everyone to have health care” or “I see that you obviously don’t care about social justice”. This idea that if someone isn’t in total lockstep with them, they are the enemy, is a complete turnoff. It has to stop or the democrats will have more seats lost.

Right now, and it is going into its second day, AOC is on Twitter just denouncing people (members of her own party) who want to talk about why the democrats lost seats in the House. She is taking the talk personally because they have suggested that some of the messaging could have been improved. It’s a selfish act on her part, a thin-skinned knee jerk response, imo. She has to be able to listen, even if her feathers are ruffled. Especially if her feathers are ruffled.

Put forth policies that will help people and they will support them. Listen to any and all suggestions with an open mind. Compromise is essential in our form of government. It’s not a dirty word. It doesn’t make people into enemies that they have a slightly different vision.

I said nothing about fueding- I’m talking actual debate - having a platform for actual discussion moderates the impulse to fight ideas over Twitter

 

[superchuck500]

idle musings:
i think the long terms analysis of the Trump years will hinge on specific hate of Hillary and generalized misogyny

this election was about Covid - the hoaxers who had no socio-cultural or intellectual option but to double down - but some of these might be reachable - the white-supremacist incels are a lost cause - but the mis-informed about covid people might turn around without the 24/7 propaganda

Dems are not going to unify to one message and that should be seen as a strength not a weakness - let the Green New Dealists hash it out publicly with the neolibs - and check the media when they just want to report on 'drama' instead of news

I do think the Covid issue is interesting and I'd like to see more about that. In particular, I'm hypothesizing that population density may have been a factor - people who live in more densely populated areas have more to worry about a community disease.

I'd like to see specifically whether there's any correlation there in the districts that saw Biden make meaningful gains over 2016 to whether there is something to the idea.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[SFIDC3]

I’m holding on to a couple of hopes. One for the two run off elections in GA. In one of them the Democrat is pretty much favored, Rev. Warnock over Loeffler. The other GA race will be more of an uphill battle, but I think it’s possible that Ossof can win. Perdue has acted a fool recently in mocking Kamala Harris openly, hopefully GA voters will take notice.

My second hope is that Biden and McConnell have worked together before. They are said to have an amicable relationship. We know McConnell has no scruples, no guiding compass, so my hope is that he sees some sort of benefit in working with Biden, that he didn’t see in working with Obama. I think I know what the difference will be. (My personal opinion is that McConnell is an extremely bigoted individual, just smart enough to hide it).

We should all give a big thank you to the WNBA and its players. I'm sure some know the story but Loeffler is part owner of the Atlanta franchise and the players can't stand her. So they gave Warnock support both financially and media driven....fantastic job ladies, hopefully they get to finish it.....

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Sorry to base this on title vs article
But what if that demographic just means each group are more susceptible to race (or gender or whatever) based arguments?

 

[DaveXA]

I expect we're going to find out that McConnell has become obsessed with power. He's Gollum of American politics.

Few in positions of power give it up easily. Not excusing McConnell, but most people in his position tend to not only want to keep it, but wield it. Human nature. There will always be people who disagree with whoever is in power. Today it's McConnell. Tomorrow it might be Schumer. He's gonna have his own share of critics. Whether that criticism is deserved is a different question, and at least in McConnell's case, I think it's well deserved.

I'd rather a Romney or moderate in his position, but that's not happening.

 

[superchuck500]

Sorry to base this on title vs article
But what if that demographic just means each group are more susceptible to race (or gender or whatever) based arguments?

I think it means that if they're more susceptible to a basket of race, gender, religion, etc. arguments, you have to determine what makes it that way because that's the more primary reason than those races, gender, etc. issues . . . and the hypothesis here is that education level is a marker of that distinction. Not necessarily the cause, that can probably get chicken/egg pretty quickly.

 

[wardorican]

I keep seeing stats mentioned (not shown) that Trump got the most minority votes of any republican in history. A low bar but is it true? Where is that data?