Post-Election Results Analysis (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

The election data is always very interesting. Let's have a thread to discuss it so that it doesn't get washed away in the gameday thread.

We always suspected that a portion of the Trump vote in 2016 will leave him based on overall distaste with his conduct as president. There appears to be some evidence of that emerging . . . here's some from Wisconsin.

 

[Taurus]

I said something similar in a different thread. The Democrats need a slogan that people can cheer to. "Defund the Police" ain't it. A better sell would be "Let cops be cops." In other words, let the cops worry about enforcing the laws. Don't have them getting involved with people suffering from mental health. I can hear people chanting "let cops be cops." It comes across as supporting the police while the plan itself is the same as "Defund the Police."

They have missed an opportunity to really stick it to the Republicans on their efforts to throw out inner-city (African-American votes). Again, a simple chant "Let Blacks Vote" should be shouted out at every Rudy G press conference. There are Republicans that still do not like to look like racists. They can be on board with "count LEGAL votes" but when that turns into "count WHITE votes" then they are out.

Democrats don't set the narrative very well.

Yeah, you can chant "Defund the police", "Let cops be cops", "Support the police" or "Stain grade walnut" whatever it takes to sell it.
Because if you can't sell it, you can't do it.

 

[DaveXA]

Yeah, you can chant "Defund the police", "Let cops be cops", "Support the police" or "Stain grade walnut" whatever it takes to sell it.
Because if you can't sell it, you can't do it.

Trump sold the shirt out of maga. People ate it up. I didn't even like it myself, but a lot of people did. So, if he can do it...why wouldn't Democrats do it?

 

[CoolBrees]

@DaveXA -

Because as a general rule, Dems are harder to sell. We tend to require evidence and facts. Things the MAGA crowd not only do not require, they actively avoid. It’s easier to feel a certain way than to critically think. And propaganda preys on this.

Look at the election nonsense or the Covid is a hoax arguments. I think you would have a tough time selling that to someone who thinks beyond their own front yard.

When you roll out the people peddling Covid is a hoax and they turn out to believe in demon sperm or your star election fraud witness is on probation for trying to frame her boyfriend’s ex for stealing their homemade porn, people would most likely discredit them out of hand. Not these rubes. No they probably don’t even know that stuff because they don’t research anything further than their FB page.

 

[Taurus]

@DaveXA -

Because as a general rule, Dems are harder to sell. We tend to require evidence and facts. Things the MAGA crowd not only do not require, they actively avoid. It’s easier to feel a certain way than to critically think. And propaganda preys on this.

Look at the election nonsense or the Covid is a hoax arguments. I think you would have a tough time selling that to someone who thinks beyond their own front yard.

When you roll out the people peddling Covid is a hoax and they turn out to believe in demon sperm or your star election fraud witness is on probation for trying to frame her boyfriend’s ex for stealing their homemade porn, people would most likely discredit them out of hand. Not these rubes. No they probably don’t even know that stuff because they don’t research anything further than their FB page.

Also, Dems can't sell worth shirte. The DNC has no idea how to capture the narrative and hold it. Nor what an effective slogan looks like. Just take a look at the blowback on Obama (FFS!) when he said "Defund the police" was a poor choice of words.

 

[superchuck500]

After Romney's loss in 2012, the RNC conducted an extensive analysis and produced a 100-page document that charted the Republican party's course forward, quite successfully. Then Trump came.

Now they don't do that kind of thing anymore, because critical analysis could be seen to disparage their Great Leader.

‘Everything’s great’: GOP ditches election post-mortems

Mitt Romney lost by 5 million votes in 2012 and sparked a 100-page RNC autopsy report. Donald Trump lost by 7 million and there isn’t a peep.

www.politico.com

 

[Richard]

After Romney's loss in 2012, the RNC conducted an extensive analysis and produced a 100-page document that charted the Republican party's course forward, quite successfully. Then Trump came.

Now they don't do that kind of thing anymore, because critical analysis could be seen to disparage their Great Leader.

‘Everything’s great’: GOP ditches election post-mortems

Mitt Romney lost by 5 million votes in 2012 and sparked a 100-page RNC autopsy report. Donald Trump lost by 7 million and there isn’t a peep.

www.politico.com

Yes, we've come a long way since my childhood when Republicans were considered the party of intellectuals and critical thinkers.

 

[Richard]

No they probably don’t even know that stuff because they don’t research anything further than their FB page.

Now you know that's not true. They also watch Newsmax, OANN, AleKKKs Jones and read Epoch Times. Anything else that conflicts with their mental narrative is "mainstream media" and isn't to be trusted.

 

[MT15]

Shoot, Republicans don’t even do party platforms anymore. Cant write down your beliefs when you have to read a tweet first to know what they are.

 

[insidejob]

I'm glad this guy reached out to the electors in advance so they'd understand their job





(That clapping hand doesn't really look like it's clapping...)

 

[SystemShock]

I'm glad this guy reached out to the electors in advance so they'd understand their job





(That clapping hand doesn't really look like it's clapping...)

.. and this is why I do what I do.

 

[wardorican]

I'm glad this guy reached out to the electors in advance so they'd understand their job





(That clapping hand doesn't really look like it's clapping...)

Yeah, I don't like this priest. He basically ran out of NY due to disagreements with the Bishop, and was transferred to Texas. He is overly political. He's a political activist. Things a good priest shouldn't be. At least not to the point of having a picture of the president, instead of the pope, behind him.

A lot of what he said was fine, but it's the context between what he said that isn't.

edit:

I glanced at his twitter feed. UN HINGED. The man shouldn't be leading any congregation, shouldn't be delivering homily's and is failing his duty to the truth.

Catechism of the Catholic Church - IntraText

 

[zztop]

I came across this article this morning, hopefully the trend continues.

Asian American and Pacific Islanders’ Record Turnout Helped Flip Georgia Blue. Now They Could Shape the Future of the Senate

Politicians on both ends of the political spectrum are waking up to the importance of Asian American and Pacific Islander voters.

time.com

 

[superchuck500]

Yeah, we all knew that.

Trump Destroyed Himself

Two reports by his own pollsters show why he should have won but didn’t.

slate.com

 

[Booker]

Yeah, we all knew that.

Trump Destroyed Himself

Two reports by his own pollsters show why he should have won but didn’t.

slate.com

Any incumbent would have struggled with a pandemic in an election year. But Trump had everything else going for him. Despite setbacks, the economy he inherited was still strong. Congress and the Federal Reserve pumped in trillions of dollars to prop up households and businesses. Republicans turned out to vote in better numbers than in 2016. And yet, Trump managed to lose. He lost because he botched his job, picked stupid fights, and antagonized most of the country. His own pollsters have confirmed it.

Yep.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

Yeah, we all knew that.

Trump Destroyed Himself

Two reports by his own pollsters show why he should have won but didn’t.

slate.com

that should chill our bones

 

[bdb13]

that should chill our bones

Or how about this... it was a matter of about 40,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin that prevented a 269-269 Electoral College tie that I'm nearly positive would have been advantage Trump based on state party control (or whatever the technical term is, sorry forgetting).

 

[RobF]

Yeah, we all knew that.

Trump Destroyed Himself

Two reports by his own pollsters show why he should have won but didn’t.

slate.com

I don't completely agree with all that analysis, particularly the notion that 'Any incumbent would have struggled with a pandemic in an election year'; handled well, it's something that can boost an incumbent as they're seen to be capable of taking tough decisions and protecting the nation. See, for example, Jacinda Acern, going from 36.89% of the New Zealand vote in 2017 to a remarkable 50.01% of the vote in their October 2020 election.

I certainly agree that Trump struggled with it though, or as the article puts it, "he botched his job."

Or how about this... it was a matter of about 40,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin that prevented a 269-269 Electoral College tie that I'm nearly positive would have been advantage Trump based on state party control (or whatever the technical term is, sorry forgetting).

This ties in with the question in the other thread of why the Republican party does not appear to be inclined to change despite losing.

Because while they lost this time, they could easily have won. It wasn't the existential 'you can never win again if you continue like this' defeat necessary to cause real reflection, it was a 'our guy messed it up this time, we'll get them next time' defeat.

Everything that kept them in the competition despite Trump screwing up left, right, and center, is still there. The electoral college, the vicious circle of a polarised nation and a too dominant partisan media, and a lack of consequences culture that promotes excuses and ignorance over accountability and truth. They're not changing until that does.

 

[B4YOU]

Or how about this... it was a matter of about 40,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin that prevented a 269-269 Electoral College tie that I'm nearly positive would have been advantage Trump based on state party control (or whatever the technical term is, sorry forgetting).

This is why the EC needs to go. If you can win the popular vote 51.3% with a 4.5% margin and still lose the Presidency, then something is seriously wrong.

Also, Republicans have consistently push for ever greater Executive power. If you want to empower the Legislature, then Rs losing the presidency in 2000 and 2016 due to losing the popular vote would result in empowering the Legislative branch pretty quickly.