Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (5 Viewers)

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superchuck500

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Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.


VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.






 
It’s actually not rare. I had your most recent quoting of GG in mind from his disparaging the Russian influence on the 2016 election due to the false claim that “it was only $100k ads” on Facebook.

It‘s extremely dishonest of him to do that.
He didn't say that in that Tweet so what you said isn't true:

 
He didn't say that in that Tweet so what you said isn't true:


I'm really not trying to get into all of this - and I will say that I think Russian misinformation probably played a (much?) smaller role in the 2016 election than a lot of Democrats might believe - but that particular study only looked at Twitter and I'm personally inclined to believe it would have been more effectively used on Facebook at that point in time, mostly due to the differences between users and the platforms themselves.
 
This right here is where GG tells you he’s dishonest:

“Russiagate was - and is - one of the most deranged and unhinged conspiracy theories in modern times. It wasn't spread by QAnon or 4Chan users but the vast majority of media corporations, "scholars," think tank frauds, and NYT/NBC's "disinformation units":”

He is dishonestly framing this. He says that mainstream media like NBC and NYT have “disinformation units” which is an absolutely loony thing to try to get away with saying. This alone should tell you he’s not interested in reviewing facts but rather just whipping up emotion.

He is trying to say that the response to Russian interference was deranged and unhinged while conveniently ignoring the actual collusion that happened between the Trump campaign and Russian assets. The cooperation between Manafort and Russian assets was unprecedented. The fact that the campaign was eager to take a meeting with someone who billed herself as part of Russian government who promised to help them with ”dirt” on Clinton instead of reporting the contact to the FBI as they should have done immediately was also unprecedented. The fact that Russian money was funneled into the Trump campaign through the NRA was illegal and despicable. The Trump Inaugural Committee was also the recipient of money from Russian oligarchs as we recently learned. I feel we don’t know the half of what went on during Trump’s campaign or presidency. I didn’t even mention Trump’s lie about having no business interests in Russia which anyone who had been paying attention knew immediately was a lie. The FBI knew it.

No other presidential campaign has ever done these things. One R campaign that was targeted in the past (Romney? I think, or McCain) immediately reported the contact to the FBI as they should.

GG knows all this, and still has no issue with painting this complex issue as totally one-sided. Lord knows there were issues with some of the reporting. I can easily admit that. There was some speculation, which was corrected if it turned out to be false. People were freaking out about how reckless and immoral Trump and his campaign were demonstrating they were with every passing day.

There was no widespread conspiracy to “get Trump” involving all of mainstream media, scholars, think tanks etc, etc, this is just bat shirt crazy talk. Trump brought all the negative attention on himself with his dishonesty and shady behavior.

To pretend Trump did nothing to contribute to this extra scrutiny is baseless and dishonest. Most people see right through this GG gambit and it’s why he’s lost almost all the reputation he used to have. He doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt and I assume whatever he says is either absolutely false or framed dishonestly. He earned that.
 

This is how a poor shop keeper fights the mafia boss.

One of the poorest countries in the EU helped Ukraine tremendously at the most pivotal moment of the invasion by providing fuel and ammunition. And then they defied pressure from the Kremlin despite heavy reliance on Russian gas.

As early as April 27, Gazprom chose Bulgaria as the first EU country where it would sever gas exports. But Sofia did not relent. Within 24 hours, Prime Minister Petkov presented a solution that would allow Bulgaria’s nearly 7 million inhabitants to get by without gas from Russia. He organized two tankers of liquefied natural gas from the United States — at the same price per cubic meter as Gazprom was charging.
Petkov insists one thing is irreversible: “We have shown that a world is possible without dependence and fear of Russia.”
 
I'm really not trying to get into all of this - and I will say that I think Russian misinformation probably played a (much?) smaller role in the 2016 election than a lot of Democrats might believe - but that particular study only looked at Twitter and I'm personally inclined to believe it would have been more effectively used on Facebook at that point in time, mostly due to the differences between users and the platforms themselves.

The elements of the story that will always be true is the DNC hack, and Guccifer 2.0. Russia tried on some level to elect Trump. It's the same way MBS did the most he could with oil prices to influence the midterms. It's not doing much, if anything.

The reason behind Russia's assistance in electing Trump was faulty in the RussiaGate theory. They thought Putin had something on Trump. The truth was probably always very simple. They saw Trump as a destabilizing force that would hurt American democracy.
 
The elements of the story that will always be true is the DNC hack, and Guccifer 2.0. Russia tried on some level to elect Trump. It's the same way MBS did the most he could with oil prices to influence the midterms. It's not doing much, if anything.

The reason behind Russia's assistance in electing Trump was faulty in the RussiaGate theory. They thought Putin had something on Trump. The truth was probably always very simple. They saw Trump as a destabilizing force that would hurt American democracy.
Putin really wanted to destroy Hilary. He blamed Clinton for inciting some pro democracy demonstration in Russia. That was Putin's paranoia, which we all can clearly see now.

And how much he has on trump will not be known. There was just so much obstruction from that administration.

Also, the dnc wasnt the onlybserver hacked by the Russians. The rnc was hacked as well. It was just not released for propaganda.

 
Putin really wanted to destroy Hilary. He blamed Clinton for inciting some pro democracy demonstration in Russia. That was Putin's paranoia, which we all can clearly see now.

And how much he has on trump will not be known. There was just so much obstruction from that administration.

Also, the dnc wasnt the onlybserver hacked by the Russians. The rnc was hacked as well. It was just not released for propaganda.


It wasn't really paranoia. HRC did make a statement about the validity of the elections. Trump, and Republicans in general are more closely aligned with these characters.

Maybe Putin did hold a grudge, but Putin and Trump had business dealings. There was a lot more upside to helping Trump get elected.

Republicans did spend the July 4th with Putin after 2014.

Russia talks openly about the great job Tucker Carlson does with propaganda talking points.

I think Russia rightly sees Republicans as more closely aligned group in ideology, and operation.

After all most of the authoritarian countries are firmly in the Republican camp: MBS, Netanyahu, and Putin

My point is you don't need a conspiracy theory for the way Russia favors Republicans, and Trump.
 
It wasn't really paranoia. HRC did make a statement about the validity of the elections. Trump, and Republicans in general are more closely aligned with these characters.

Maybe Putin did hold a grudge, but Putin and Trump had business dealings. There was a lot more upside to helping Trump get elected.

Republicans did spend the July 4th with Putin after 2014.

Russia talks openly about the great job Tucker Carlson does with propaganda talking points.

I think Russia rightly sees Republicans as more closely aligned group in ideology, and operation.

After all most of the authoritarian countries are firmly in the Republican camp: MBS, Netanyahu, and Putin

My point is you don't need a conspiracy theory for the way Russia favors Republicans, and Trump.
Common now. US politicians routinely make statements supporting democracy and protests for it. Biden will call for the rights of iranians to protest yet won't be involved whatsoever. In clinton's case, Putin believed clinton was involved in the incitement when that is not remotely true. She reacted to people frustrated that Putin forced Medvedev out. They correctly believed that their democratic rights were taken from them. Just like he believed that the maidan wasn't organic but rather was bc of the us.
 
With a month from the 1 yr anniversary of the Russian invasion, I was interested in how the Ukrainians managed to sustain themselves. It still amazes me how resilient the Ukrainians are. Zelensky staying is the obvious pivotal moment; contrast that with how the Afghan fled.


“I saw personally a secret order from Russian commanders to their air assault troops that they have to control the government quarter … during 12 hours,” said Reznikov earlier this month. The order had been retrieved from a dead body, he added, probably the victim of days of fighting at Hostomel.

With Ukraine’s best forces in the east, Russia at one point had an astonishing 12 to 1 advantage in troop numbers north of Kyiv, according to Rusi. But the Russians, whose tanks and trucks were painted with the letter V, could not make weight of numbers count. Meanwhile, the task of the defending the capital fell to three Ukrainian brigades of which two, critically, were artillery at a time when Kyiv’s forces could roughly match Russian heavy guns before its stocks ran out
The battle of hostomel was the critical battle and could've changed the course of the war. It was a matter of hours before the Russians would reinforce with plane loads of troops and heavy armored vehicles.

The following is a great video detailing the battle of Kyiv.


And rereading this thread from a year ago was an experience.
 
Post in thread 'Is Russia about to invade Ukraine?' https://madaboutpolitics.com/threads/is-russia-about-to-invade-ukraine.183210/post-285755



Matthew Chance is still a baddies. And that skynews crew that were attacked by the Russians was intense.

 

Really long and detailed account here.
As the day went on, Arestovych became convinced the Ukrainian military would not be able to defend the capital and told the president as much. “People who understood military things went up to him and said, ‘We’re not going to hold,’ ” Arestovych said.
don’t want to hear it again.”

Zelensky told Danilov to stop annoying him with constant warnings about threats to his life, asking the National Security and Defense Council chief whether he had anything else to say — anything more important.

“Listen, I am a living person. I don’t want to die, like any other person,” Zelensky said. “But I definitely know that if I think about that, then I’m already dead.”

“I’m not trying to hold on to power,” Zelensky said he explained to the Western officials. “If the question is that I leave, and that will stop the bloodshed, then I am all for it. I will go right now. I didn’t get into politics for that — and I will go whenever you say, if it will stop the war."

I remembered how intense those days were and I am on the other side of the world.
 
Common now. US politicians routinely make statements supporting democracy and protests for it. Biden will call for the rights of iranians to protest yet won't be involved whatsoever. In clinton's case, Putin believed clinton was involved in the incitement when that is not remotely true. She reacted to people frustrated that Putin forced Medvedev out. They correctly believed that their democratic rights were taken from them. Just like he believed that the maidan wasn't organic but rather was bc of the us.

I acquiesced that this could be 100% true, and still isn't anywhere near the main driver for Russia's favoring of Trump, and Republicans. I felt like I laid out a good argument for that.

Let me to drive my thought process home a different way. What had a bigger impact on Putin: HRC talking smack about a Russian election, or the Magnitsky Act?
 

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