Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[DaveXA]

Progressives push for peace talks. Good. It's about time!

Hey you...psst...been there and done that. Didn't work then, and until there's someone in Russia willing to have good faith dialogue and take real steps to pull out of sovereign territory, it won't happen now.

 

[DaveXA]

Progressives push for peace talks. Good. It's about time!

Here's a serious response.

 

[bdb13]

What a display of weakness from those 30 Democrats. They almost may as well have said "we are agreeable to Russia's terms, we want you to make that deal."

They've already walked it back but man that's really some shirt for them to have pulled that now.

 

[UriUT]

Yeah it's really disappointing to see Raskin's name on that letter. The letter is naive. To be fair it is a big nothing. It stated that peace should be discussed with Ukraine. The damage though is that it will be perceived in moscow as dissent and all they need to do is wait. And that is exactly counter to these democrats' intent...instead they will get a longer war costing more lives.

Here applebaum talks of the consequences of negotiating on Putin's terms.



Rob Lee here explains how the war can be shortened. Arm the Ukrainians for victory.

Liberal Democrats call on Biden to shift Ukraine strategy | CNN Politics

More than two dozen liberal House members are calling on President Joe Biden to shift course in his Ukraine strategy and pursue direct diplomacy with Russia to bring the months-long conflict to an end.

www.cnn.com

Still, Kirby said there were no indications that Russian President Vladimir Putin was willing to engage in serious diplomacy to bring the war to an end.

"When you see and you listen to his rhetoric, and you see the other things, be they atrocities, the war crimes, the airstrikes against civilian infrastructure that the Russians are committing, it's clear Mr. Putin is in no mood to negotiate," Kirby said.

"Mr. Zelensky gets to determine when he thinks that's the right time, and Mr. Zelensky gets to determine, because it's his country, what success looks like, what victory looks and what sort of terms he willing to negotiate on," Kirby said. "We're not going to dictate that."

And let's step back here and appreciate a real professional foreign policy team.

There is zero question on Ukraine's resolve, resilience, and fighting ability. Without US aid though we could easily have a front line west of Kyiv, where mass graves and torture chambers are certain in Russian occupied territory. US intel, stingers and javelin helped neutralized Russian advantages. The US replaced and in some circumstances upgrade equipment (tanks, sam, jets, etc) that neighboring nations donated to Ukraine. This administration walked a tight rope in providing needed aid while not being overly provocative. He united NATO. The recent success is Ukrainian. But it wouldn't be possible if not for biden despite how some here perceive him. He saved lives and a nation. And he isnt boasting about it like some attention needy child.

 

[Lapaz]

Yep they are just as guilty for the pricing as opec. They act like they set the price when in reality the let opec play the bad guy all the way to the bank.

They have been doing this since the 70s opec had no power until American oil companies made a decision to stop investing in production here and import oil in the late 60s and early 70s.

They sent jobs overseas long before anyone else.

I don't think that U.S. oil companies have stopped investing in U.S. production, but I believe our reserves are more expensive to withdraw, so there may be less investment relative to the demand. If it is cheaper to import crude oil, than it is to withdraw it from U.S. reserves, then U.S. oil companies are going to import it. I believe we still have some subsidies for U.S. crude oil, but I think some have expired, and are mixed in with coal and other petroleum subsidies. We need to get greener, so coal shouldn't be in the mix of subsidies, but we're probably going to need fossil fuels for many generations to come, so it probably makes sense to increase subsidies to U.S. crude oil. Manchin is probably single handedly keeping coal subsidies, but all of the money should go to U.S. crude oil, and we should require oil companies to keep a high percentage of the subsequent petroleum products in the U.S.

Fact Sheet | Fossil Fuel Subsidies: A Closer Look at Tax Breaks and Societal Costs (2019) | White Papers | EESI

www.eesi.org

 

[UriUT]

This is a must read thread on pro Putin supporters and corresponding article on our policy towards ukraine.

What’s Missing from Mearsheimer’s Analysis of the Ukraine War | Russia Matters

www.russiamatters.org

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Yeah it's really disappointing to see Raskin's name on that letter. The letter is naive. To be fair it is a big nothing. It stated that peace should be discussed with Ukraine. The damage though is that it will be perceived in moscow as dissent and all they need to do is wait. And that is exactly counter to these democrats' intent...instead they will get a longer war costing more lives.

Here applebaum talks of the consequences of negotiating on Putin's terms.



Rob Lee here explains how the war can be shortened. Arm the Ukrainians for victory.

Liberal Democrats call on Biden to shift Ukraine strategy | CNN Politics

More than two dozen liberal House members are calling on President Joe Biden to shift course in his Ukraine strategy and pursue direct diplomacy with Russia to bring the months-long conflict to an end.

www.cnn.com

And let's step back here and appreciate a real professional foreign policy team.

There is zero question on Ukraine's resolve, resilience, and fighting ability. Without US aid though we could easily have a front line west of Kyiv, where mass graves and torture chambers are certain in Russian occupied territory. US intel, stingers and javelin helped neutralized Russian advantages. The US replaced and in some circumstances upgrade equipment (tanks, sam, jets, etc) that neighboring nations donated to Ukraine. This administration walked a tight rope in providing needed aid while not being overly provocative. He united NATO. The recent success is Ukrainian. But it wouldn't be possible if not for biden despite how some here perceive him. He saved lives and a nation. And he isnt boasting about it like some attention needy child.

Now, Jayapal is trying to walk the letter back. Unfortunately the damage has been done. Dems can never just get out of their own way. Just keep giving Republicans ammo to use in campaigns.

Jayapal withdraws letter on Ukraine policy amid Democratic anger | CNN Politics

A House progressive leader abruptly withdrew a letter pushing the Biden administration to pursue diplomacy in Russia’s war with Ukraine, an about-face following furious internal backlash from Democrats who felt blindsided by the move just two weeks before the November midterms.

www.cnn.com

 

[SaintForLife]

Here's a serious response.

Are you surprised a former US general is supporting war? I would think it's difficult to find many that didn't always support every war. I'd rather hear from experts who don't have a history of being involved in wars.

Also, Anne Applebaum is a board member of the National Endowment for democracy which a regime change CIA affiliated organization. I wouldn't trust anything she says about Foreign Policy.

 

[UriUT]

Are you surprised a former US general is supporting war? I would think it's difficult to find many that didn't always support every war. I'd rather hear from experts who don't have a history of being involved in wars.

Also, Anne Applebaum is a board member of the National Endowment for democracy which a regime change CIA affiliated organization. I wouldn't trust anything she says about Foreign Policy.

Do you live in perpetual conspiracies? Do you only think in superficial terms?

Hertlings has been superb in his opinion and prognostication of Ukraine. One of the few. I mean let's get a jobless dead beat writer and unquestionably believe his takes like the twin towers were not civilian buildings. Let's not hear the opinion of a general concerning a war. For the love of god...he served in an active war. He understands war and the psyche involved. What kind of mind believes all generals or military personnel wants war.

Read Applebaum's arguments. Does that not make sense to you considering the amount of evidence coming out that Russia committed war crimes? Her reputation is beyond Michael Tracey btw even if you multiply it by infinity. Sometimes using critical thoughts can separate the lunacy from the reputation.

I really do wish you read with objectivity my post before this.
#%!;#;=&#&#&÷&!&÷&÷\!&##&@_$**÷**÷*=_=&=&=&÷&÷÷\÷\/÷

F*** k

 

[MT15]

Now, Jayapal is trying to walk the letter back. Unfortunately the damage has been done. Dems can never just get out of their own way. Just keep giving Republicans ammo to use in campaigns.

Jayapal withdraws letter on Ukraine policy amid Democratic anger | CNN Politics

A House progressive leader abruptly withdrew a letter pushing the Biden administration to pursue diplomacy in Russia’s war with Ukraine, an about-face following furious internal backlash from Democrats who felt blindsided by the move just two weeks before the November midterms.

www.cnn.com

Yeah, I was super disappointed in this.

 

[SaintForLife]

Here's an article/interview with John Mearsheimer discussing Ukraine:

Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

For years, the political scientist has claimed that Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine is caused by Western intervention. Have recent events changed his mind?

www.newyorker.com

 

[UriUT]

I have read mearsheimer's arguments and am sure I read that article before. I disagree with it. Why dont you express it and I will tell you why he is incorrect on putting blame towards the West. He'll I posted an article above that explains why mearsheimer and his real politik is wrong. Putin's own words makes a mockery of mearsheimer's argument.

 

[bdb13]

Here's an article/interview with John Mearsheimer discussing Ukraine:

Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

For years, the political scientist has claimed that Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine is caused by Western intervention. Have recent events changed his mind?

www.newyorker.com

Russia was going to attack an independent Ukraine at some point regardless of the west's involvement. It is not the west's fault that Putin is a monster.

 

[MT15]

Yeah, I was super disappointed in this.

This may be a different response not sure. But they evidently got pushback from all sides.

 

[Optimus Prime]

And why do this 2 weeks before the election? (send the letter in the first place not pulling it back)

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

And why do this 2 weeks before the election? (send the letter in the first place not pulling it back)

Because stupidity!

 

[bdb13]

And why do this 2 weeks before the election? (send the letter in the first place not pulling it back)

Story is that they'd been working for months to get as many to sign onto this as possible.. Jayapal blamed her "staff" or some staff for releasing it without vetting, but you'd think someone in power made that decision, no?

 

[MT15]

I agree. This was just a blunder. They all stood there while the letter was released, so you expect us to believe they hadn’t read it? Just plain old stupidity.

I would like to point out, though, the difference between Rs and Ds evident here. Rs would double down and never admit they made a mistake. Just the sheer number of them who know the 2020 election wasn’t stolen and go out and still insist there were issues 2 years later is mind-numbing.