Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (3 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

 

[SaintForLife]

There isn’t a single source posted by SFL that isn’t propaganda in one form or another. I would caution you to believe any of it.

Another one of your vague posts where you claim something, but don't back it up which I know is one of your normal things you do.

You post things from neocons, CIA linked Anne Applebaum, government cutouts, and many people who are being indirectly paid by governments when they act as if they have unbiased opinions. I mean Rothkopf is a literal foreign agent for an oppressive regime . So many of the posts you make is literally government propaganda from government cutouts.

But sure let's believe your vague message board posts when you refuse to back up your statements.

 

[SaintForLife]

This article is horribly slanted - and it attempts to rewrite history. There was always the possibility of a stalemate - I well remember reading about that possibility as soon as it became obvious that Putin wasn’t going to roll into Kyiv in 3 days, no matter how many war crimes he committed. I don’t think the war is in a stalemate, however, and saying that it is only helps Putin, who will end up losing.

There were no serious offers from Putin to negotiate, anyway.

There is a possibility of stalemate in any war. So you don't believe the Ukrainian General who said the war is at a stalemate?

Saying that fact, on a message board, only helps Putin? Is the Ukrainian General helping Putin? Do you know how ridiculous that sounds?

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

Zelensky says there isn't a stalemate. so i guess it depends of what/who YOU want to believe.
Even if there is a stalemate, that isn't somethig that is final. Thats could be something that is as temparary as the week goes...

 

[DaveXA]

If the F-16's give Ukraine air superiority or even equal competitiveness, then Ukraine will be able to use airstrikes in support of ground assaults. Airstrikes are the best way to soften up ground troops entrenched in defensive fortifications. Airstrikes make a huge difference and Ukraine's lack of being able to conduct airstrikes is the main reason their ground forces are making such glacial progress.

I agree, but they already do have air support with their existing air assets, which while not enough to be really competitive with the Russians because of the disparity in numbers they're enough to cause problems for Russian defenses. F-16s might tip the scales a bit, but only if a) they have enough trained and experienced pilots, and b) enough techs on the ground capable of maintaining and repairing to keep them flying. I'm sure they're coordinating and planning all of that, but it's easier said than done.

I hope they're getting a substantial number of them, because they're gonna need a lot of them if they want to have any chance at air superiority.

They also would need to continue degrading Russias' air defenses, which are formidable, and rooting those out will be a tough task. We make fun of Russia, but they seem to be replacing troops and S-300/400s faster than Ukraine can kill them.

I hope they have great success with the F-16s, but I'm skeptical that they'll move the needle a whole lot on the ground.

 

[SaintForLife]

Zelensky says there isn't a stalemate. so i guess it depends of what/who YOU want to believe.
Even if there is a stalemate, that isn't somethig that is final. Thats could be something that is as temparary as the week goes...

The guy asking for more money said there isn't a stalemate. What a surprise

 

[DaveXA]

The guy asking for more money said there isn't a stalemate. What a surprise

He's the guy that matters though.

 

[SaintForLife]

He's the guy that matters though.

Even if he's lying?

 

[MT15]

Another one of your vague posts where you claim something, but don't back it up which I know is one of your normal things you do.

You post things from neocons, CIA linked Anne Applebaum, government cutouts, and many people who are being indirectly paid by governments when they act as if they have unbiased opinions. I mean Rothkopf is a literal foreign agent for an oppressive regime . So many of the posts you make is literally government propaganda from government cutouts.

But sure let's believe your vague message board posts when you refuse to back up your statements.

I didn’t have time to go back over every single source. But not one of them is credible, just by a quick look at them. In fact, the debunking was actually done. But you ignored that post, what a shock.

Sergey Lavrov? lol

Melvut Cavusoglu? this guy? "Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called the Netherlands, "Nazi remnants" and "fascists,"[17] which Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte called "a crazy remark."[18] Çavuşoğlu followed by defending Erdoğan's remark,[20] and by saying that the Netherlands was the "capital of fascism"

( BTW that statement was made in 2017....eerily similar to Putins initial statements on Ukraine- coincidence? )

Which stemmed from this : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Dutch–Turkish_diplomatic_incident

Naftali- the guy who spoke to Putin personally and told Zelensky that "Putin gave him his word....he wouldnt kill him ( Zelensky ) " LOL ok. Also, context matters as this took place in 2021. its 2023 and Russia is now aligned with Iran. Ask Naftali his thoughts NOW on Putin

Shroder- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html nuff said.

 

[efil4]

The guy asking for more money said there isn't a stalemate. What a surprise

Institute for the Study of War

The positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate. It is not the result of fundamental realities in modern warfare that can only be changed with a technological or tactical revolution, as was the First World War’s stalemate. Neither does it rest on

understandingwar.org

 

[efil4]

Even if he's lying?

This isnt a stalemate



nor this



or this




Ukraine continues to "shape the battlefield" with continued degradation of RuAF capabilities. Daily.

and the weapons? JAvelin, HIMARS- US supplied.

 

[Bigdaddysaints]

The guy asking for more money said there isn't a stalemate. What a surprise

are you saying Gen. Valery Zaluzhny isn't askingfor money and arms?
His stance is the reason the advance has stalled is the lack of modern fighter jets and artillery ammunition. I can look at a lot of his statments and think he's trying to use the 'stalemate' as a reason to get more money and weapons.

 

[DaveXA]

Even if he's lying?

I don't think lying. And periodic stalemates and pauses in a given war are commonplace. It could be that they're maintaining and consolidating their gains and holding ground until they receive additional air support, i.e. the F-16s we're talking about as well as other weapons and munitions that are on their way into the battlefield.

You're entitled to your opinion, but I think you're clearly supporting Russia by saying you think Ukraine should capitulate at this point, which from where I sit, makes zero sense.

 

[DaveXA]

Institute for the Study of War

The positional war in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate. It is not the result of fundamental realities in modern warfare that can only be changed with a technological or tactical revolution, as was the First World War’s stalemate. Neither does it rest on

understandingwar.org

He doesn't think the ISW is a valid source. Lol.

But yeah.

 

[efil4]

are you saying Gen. Valery Zaluzhny isn't askingfor money and arms?
His stance is the reason the advance has stalled is the lack of modern fighter jets and artillery ammunition. I can look at a lot of his statments and think he's trying to use the 'stalemate' as a reason to get more money and weapons.

if you read the article i posted above, it explains in detail what UAF is facing in the southern front/axis. Dense EW ( electronic warfare equipment- in many areas, but lacking in others ), reconnaisance drones, etc. well dug-in/fortified defensive positions.

That can be overcome with additional US aid.

UAF are hamstrung by the numbers. They have to "manage" their movements to avoid losses that the RuAF simply dont care about ( men/equipment )

Shoot, Russia is now actively recruiting from Prisons- not in secret, not PMCs - Ministry of Defense offering pardons and pay to go to front.

At every prison in Russia. Tells you just how far down the hole Russia is regarding able-bodied soldiers.

 

[efil4]

He doesn't think the ISW is a valid source. Lol.

But yeah.

Well, of course he doesnt.

 

[SaintForLife]

I didn’t have time to go back over every single source. But not one of them is credible, just by a quick look at them. In fact, the debunking was actually done. But you ignored that post, what a shock.

Oh you don't have time. How convenient. That's another thing you do often so you can make claims and not have to back them up. Very transparent message board tactic.

Do you find it ironic that you claim what I post is all propaganda(but you don't have time to show that it is lol), but you constantly post things from government cutouts, CIA linked people like Applebaum, people paid by the government? You are literally posting government propaganda.

I ignored the debunking? The Wikipedia posts debunked that there was no tentative agreement for a ceasefire at the beginning of the war? Lol okay. Luckily he did that for you since you don't have time to do it yourself despite the many posts you make here daily.

 

[bird]

Another one of your vague posts where you claim something, but don't back it up which I know is one of your normal things you do.

You post things from neocons, CIA linked Anne Applebaum, government cutouts, and many people who are being indirectly paid by governments when they act as if they have unbiased opinions. I mean Rothkopf is a literal foreign agent for an oppressive regime . So many of the posts you make is literally government propaganda from government cutouts.

But sure let's believe your vague message board posts when you refuse to back up your statements.

Links please regarding Applebaum, Rothkopf and “many people”.

 

[MT15]

I ignored the debunking? The Wikipedia posts debunked that there was no tentative agreement for a ceasefire at the beginning of the war?

Yes you ignored it. The posts showed that your sources are biased, they advocate for Russia. The rest of your post is just an unwarranted personal attack.