Election Polling (1 Viewer)

[wardorican]

The election is just a few months away. The Pandemic has made this kind of quiet, but I have seen plenty of TV commercials, especially from Trump.

It's early, and polling can change, but I think the pandemic, economy having issues due to the pandemic, on top of the multiple issues many folks have with Trump are taking their toll. But, the pandemic is likely crushing his reelection chances... but we shall see.

What surprised me is that some states are looking a lot closer, or are flipping that I wasn't expecting.

Georgia....

Florida

Iowa?? it's a tie now, but Trump was up in that state.

Wisconsin

That's looking like a map like this...

 

[wardorican]

And like I said, it's a LOOOOOONNNNGGGG road and a lot can change. We still need to have some debates and Biden needs to pick a VP.

 

[wardorican]

A decent article outlining the potential VP picks, but mostly centered on Tammy Duckworth.

I think she'd be interesting, but I don't know a lot about her, other than her Military service and injury.

Tammy Duckworth, now in VP spotlight, won’t say if Biden should select a Black running mate | CNN Politics

When Joe Biden pledged at the final Democratic primary debate to select a woman as his running mate, Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth was rarely mentioned as a contender.

www.cnn.com

 

[samiam5211]

The pandemic is a real world example of Donald Trump as president.

There aren’t as many fools out there as Trump thinks.

Biden just needs to chill for a few months. Reality and time are on the same side.

 

[Taurus]

I'd like to see a poll from each state that starts with voting intentions, then factors in GOP voter suppression. I think that'll give a more accurate picture of what a real election will look like if held today.

 

[The moose]

Great work man.

I truly think this pandemic is gonna have huge effect on voting. It is gonna be a full time job to keep voter suppression in check. Some states like Georgia can't hold a fair election under normal circumstances.

I really think people will be shocked what states will be flipped.

Florida is gonna be a blue state after the horrible leadership is getting people sick and dieing for the almighty dollar.

 

[zztop]

And like I said, it's a LOOOOOONNNNGGGG road and a lot can change. We still need to have some debates and Biden needs to pick a VP.

it has been a couple months, but I have a vague recollection he, or someone in his campaign said he would announce the pick in August

 

[Saintamaniac]

And like I said, it's a LOOOOOONNNNGGGG road and a lot can change. We still need to have some debates and Biden needs to pick a VP.

With respect to the debates, I agree with the opinion piece offered in the NY Times yesterday. Trump needs to the debates more than Biden at this point. Biden should agree to debate trump only if real time fact checking will be allowed and trump produces his taxes since he's been in office.

Opinion | Biden Should Not Debate Trump Unless … (Published 2020)

Here are two conditions the Democrat should set.

www.nytimes.com

 

[The moose]

With respect to the debates, I agree with the opinion piece offered in the NY Times yesterday. Trump needs to the debates more than Biden at this point. Biden should agree to debate trump only if real time fact checking will be allowed and trump produces his taxes since he's been in office.

Opinion | Biden Should Not Debate Trump Unless … (Published 2020)

Here are two conditions the Democrat should set.

www.nytimes.com

Yep I read that yesterday.

Someone needs to hold him accountable. And yes Biden really doesn't have much to gain by having debates just keep letting the idiot go on being an idiot.

I love the idea just don't think it will fly. I can see name calling and chicken crap already.

Actually the republican party is to blame the way I see it. They should have made him release his taxes or not get the nomination. They should have set the ground rules they let him run all over that party to the point they are not recognizeable any more.

The VP selection is not a real worry for me. I think Pence is pretty much a joke in comparison to any of the people being talked about.

One thing for sure Biden is not gonna make such a weak VP selection as Pence is. With both candidates being so old the VP is has to realistically be considered a candidate to take over not a spineless person to not get in your way like Pence is.

I still would not be shocked to see Trump blame pence for the pandemic problems and dump him.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Do we know the margin of error with the polls, especially the close races?

 

[wardorican]

With respect to the debates, I agree with the opinion piece offered in the NY Times yesterday. Trump needs to the debates more than Biden at this point. Biden should agree to debate trump only if real time fact checking will be allowed and trump produces his taxes since he's been in office.

Opinion | Biden Should Not Debate Trump Unless … (Published 2020)

Here are two conditions the Democrat should set.

www.nytimes.com

They already have 3 lined up.

Here Are the Topics for the Final Debate Between Trump and Biden

The two candidates will meet in Nashville later this week.

www.townandcountrymag.com

 

[wardorican]

Do we know the margin of error with the polls, especially the close races?

fivethirtyeight has a bunch of polls listed on their site, they do a meta analysis of them to come up with their clouds. It's early, so they haven't factored in the probabilities yet. However, each individual poll will usually present their margin of error.

I look at it with a bit more of a cloud look to it.. meaning, error isn't finite, so the exact values aren't finite, just a ball park of where people sit.

 

[wardorican]

an example..

 

[JRad]

I think this is the biggest tell. 7% of Trump's 2016 voters are going Biden compared to a 2% crossover for Trump. He really hasn't gained any support over the last 3.5 years, but he's done a bang up job firing up his opposition bases. As it was, he already had 3 million fewer votes than Clinton, he didn't have much wiggle room against a more motivated Democratic voting base.

And like I said, it's a LOOOOOONNNNGGGG road and a lot can change. We still need to have some debates and Biden needs to pick a VP.

This for sure though.

 

[Ayo]

I'm still trying to figure out this Trafalgar Group in terms of polling reliability. I have a feeling we're going to hear more and more about them specifically, individually because they got MI right in 2016 and they have the race at the state level MUCH closer, including with Trump as a leader, compared to others.

They have Trump +1 in WI, while the average of other pills is Biden +9
They have a tie in FL, while the average of the other polls is Biden +6.5
They have Biden +1 in MI, while the average of the other polls is Biden is +10
They have Biden +5 in PA, while the average of the others polls is Biden +7 (this is is pretty close)

And similarly with Gravis, which seems to be another statistical anomaly with regard to the rest.

They have Trump +3 in NC, while the average of the other polls is Biden +4.5
They have Trump +4 in AZ, while the average of the other polls is Biden +6

Are the rest of the other polls oversampling Dems or weighting incorrectly? Are these outliers oversampling R voters or weighing incorrectly?

I don't really know enough about polling, specifically, to offer an answer. Nor do I really expect anyone here to, just something I noticed looking at battleground trends.

 

[JimEverett]

I'm still trying to figure out this Trafalgar Group in terms of polling reliability. I have a feeling we're going to hear more and more about them specifically, individually because they got MI right in 2016 and they have the race at the state level MUCH closer, including with Trump as a leader, compared to others.

They have Trump +1 in WI, while the average of other pills is Biden +9
They have a tie in FL, while the average of the other polls is Biden +6.5
They have Biden +1 in MI, while the average of the other polls is Biden is +10
They have Biden +5 in PA, while the average of the others polls is Biden +7 (this is is pretty close)

And similarly with Gravis, which seems to be another statistical anomaly with regard to the rest.

They have Trump +3 in NC, while the average of the other polls is Biden +4.5
They have Trump +4 in AZ, while the average of the other polls is Biden +6

Are the rest of the other polls oversampling Dems or weighting incorrectly? Are these outliers oversampling R voters or weighing incorrectly?

I don't really know enough about polling, specifically, to offer an answer. Nor do I really expect anyone here to, just something I noticed looking at battleground trends.

Trafalgar uses an algorithm to account for the people who are unwilling to tell a pollster they are going to vote for Trump.
What I think is a little odd is that they have Michigan as being closer than Pennsylvania - which just seems wrong to me. But, like you said - I don;t know much about polling.

 

[Ayo]

Trafalgar uses an algorithm to account for the people who are unwilling to tell a pollster they are going to vote for Trump.

Yea, I remember them hanging their hat on that wrt to the 2016 election, now that you mention it.

 

[CoolBrees]

LOVE seeing Tammy Duckworth!!!

She is my personal hero.

Pence would literally pee down his leg in a debate.