Civil War 2? (1 Viewer)

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    Optimus Prime

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    Very sobering article
    ================
    If you know people still in denial about the crisis of American democracy, kindly remove their heads from the sand long enough to receive this message: A startling new finding by one of the nation’s top authorities on foreign civil wars says we are on the cusp of our own.

    Barbara F. Walter, a political science professorat the University of California at San Diego, serves on a CIA advisory panel called the Political Instability Task Force that monitors countries around the world and predicts which of them are most at risk of deteriorating into violence.

    By law, the task force can’t assess what’s happening within the United States, but Walter, a longtime friend who has spent her career studying conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Rwanda, Angola, Nicaragua and elsewhere, applied the predictive techniques herself to this country.

    Her bottom line: “We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe.” She lays out the argument in detail in her must-read book, “How Civil Wars Start,” out in January. “No one wants to believe that their beloved democracy is in decline, or headed toward war,” she writes.

    But, “if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America — the same way you’d look at events in Ukraine or the Ivory Coast or Venezuela — you would go down a checklist, assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely.

    And what you would find is that the United States, a democracy founded more than two centuries ago, has entered very dangerous territory.”

    Indeed, the United States has already gone through what the CIA identifies as the first two phases of insurgency — the “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” phases — and only time will tell whether the final phase, “open insurgency,” began with the sacking of the Capitol by Donald Trump supporters on Jan. 6.

    Things deteriorated so dramatically under Trump, in fact, that the United States no longer technically qualifies as a democracy. Citing the Center for Systemic Peace’s “Polity” data set — the one the CIA task force has found to be most helpful in predicting instability and violence — Walter writes that the United States is now an “anocracy,” somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state.

    U.S. democracy had received the Polity index’s top score of 10, or close to it, for much of its history. But in the five years of the Trump era, it tumbled precipitously into the anocracy zone; by the end of his presidency, the U.S. score had fallen to a 5, making the country a partial democracy for the first time since 1800.

    “We are no longer the world’s oldest continuous democracy,” Walter writes. “That honor is now held by Switzerland, followed by New Zealand, and then Canada. We are no longer a peer to nations like Canada, Costa Rica, and Japan, which are all rated a +10 on the Polity index.”…….

    Others have reached similar findings. The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put the United States on a list of “backsliding democracies” in a report last month.

    “The United States, the bastion of global democracy, fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself," the report said.

    And a new survey by the academic consortium Bright Line Watch found that 17 percent of those who identify strongly as Republicans support the use of violence to restore Trump to power, and 39 percent favor doing everything possible to prevent Democrats from governing effectively……



     
    I would agree with this, but obviously replace 'anti-democracy trumpists' to 'the woke alt-left'.

    The left wants one thing and the right wants something else. The way I see it, we have 2 options. Divorce or let the states do the thing they were designed for. IMO, we need to strip the federal government of just about all power over the states. California and Florida would be and are governed completely differently. Let Cali be a test for left political experiments and Florida for right political experiments. Each state can take what they want, modify it or take parts of each.

    To make this happen, we need to take money out of politics, impossible but it should be the #1 priority if everyone wants to see this American experiment work. If you cant take money out, then term limits are a must.

    Pipe dream and not fully thought out by me, just a topic to discuss. Other wise, it will be a divorce, either mutual or very very ugly.
    Farb you're overlooking the fact that the left and the right are not two peoples, they are political factions of the same people. In every state there is a proportion of left and right, but in no state are all of the people from the left or the right.

    So in a war over it you are going to be in a war with at least 40% of your own in state people, and at the same time you're in a war with all of the other outside states in the union.

    It's not wise to go to war with your own kin folk. You'll never win.
     
    I would agree with this, but obviously replace 'anti-democracy trumpists' to 'the woke alt-left'.

    The left wants one thing and the right wants something else. The way I see it, we have 2 options. Divorce or let the states do the thing they were designed for. IMO, we need to strip the federal government of just about all power over the states. California and Florida would be and are governed completely differently. Let Cali be a test for left political experiments and Florida for right political experiments. Each state can take what they want, modify it or take parts of each.

    To make this happen, we need to take money out of politics, impossible but it should be the #1 priority if everyone wants to see this American experiment work. If you cant take money out, then term limits are a must.

    Pipe dream and not fully thought out by me, just a topic to discuss. Other wise, it will be a divorce, either mutual or very very ugly.
    What's interesting to me is that I may be to the left of you, but I'm not "on the left" in my own view. It's just as easy for me to say fork the Democrats or liberals or whatever as it is for me to say the same regarding Republicans, and I do not see this stuff so much as a left/right conflict inherently as much as it's morphed into this democratic/anti-democratic (authoritarian) conflict that I feel is most deeply rooted in and defined by which side you're on regarding Trump's attempt to overthrow the government.*

    *I'm assume you're probably unconvinced on the "Trump's attempt to overthrow the government" claim or at least think it's over the top, but it's backed up by the evidence we already possess and so that's the place I operate from on this.
     
    Farb you're overlooking the fact that the left and the right are not two peoples, they are political factions of the same people. In every state there is a proportion of left and right, but in no state are all of the people from the left or the right.

    So in a war over it you are going to be in a war with at least 40% of your own in state people, and at the same time you're in a war with all of the other outside states in the union.

    It's not wise to go to war with your own kin folk. You'll never win.

    Posted this in another thread

    It’s not as simple as red states and blue states

    More people voted for Trump in California than in Texas

    The major cities in red states tend to be a blue oasis

    The poorest states (which tend to be red states) are where they are while getting a shirt ton in federal aid, what do they look like without it?

    it would be a hot mess
     
    I get that. I do, but for the sake of laziness, when discussing this in a political spectrum, I lump the right and left. I know there are varying degrees of right and left but it is easier to type since we are generally talking about theories or opinions.
    I personally associate and agree with Reps more than Dems but I dislike a lot of Reps just as much as Dems. Graham from SC for example. I despise that dude as much as I despise VP Harris.

    As far as a war amongst your kin folk- I am glad the colonists didn't listen to that advise.
     
    I would agree with this, but obviously replace 'anti-democracy trumpists' to 'the woke alt-left'.

    The left wants one thing and the right wants something else. The way I see it, we have 2 options. Divorce or let the states do the thing they were designed for. IMO, we need to strip the federal government of just about all power over the states. California and Florida would be and are governed completely differently. Let Cali be a test for left political experiments and Florida for right political experiments. Each state can take what they want, modify it or take parts of each.

    To make this happen, we need to take money out of politics, impossible but it should be the #1 priority if everyone wants to see this American experiment work. If you cant take money out, then term limits are a must.

    Pipe dream and not fully thought out by me, just a topic to discuss. Other wise, it will be a divorce, either mutual or very very ugly.
    You can't just "divorce states" and expect a blue family that's been in a blue city in a red state since the late 1700's to just up and move their entire extended family to some state that hasn't been their family's home for generations. There is no way to divorce states so you'd have to have two separately elected governments ruling the same area of land, with one representing each base.

    California would wipe the floor with Florida financially. It's not even a fair fight. Their GDP is larger than a majority of counties around the world. It's the 6th largest economy on the planet. Basically equal to France. Since the turn of the millennium, California GDP expanded by nearly 60%, going from nearly $1.71 trillion in 2000, to an annual average of $2.72 trillion in 2020. Florida’s GDP — already a massive $641.25 billion back in 2000 — grew by almost 50% over the last 20 years, reaching an annual real GDP of $935.67 billion in 2020. Currently, Florida’s GDP is at a record-high of $969.56 billion, as of Q1 2021, up 0.7% from Q1 2020.
     
    I get that. I do, but for the sake of laziness, when discussing this in a political spectrum, I lump the right and left. I know there are varying degrees of right and left but it is easier to type since we are generally talking about theories or opinions.
    I don't think it's so much you being lazy there as much as there's just the existence of a divide in how we are seeing things.

    In that, however you define it, I know that you don't view 'post 2020 election Trump' and the lengths that he and his most loyal associates and supporters went to to overturn the election result (sans their possession of anything resembling the amount and quality of evidence which would be required to prove their extraordinary claim that large scale, multi state Democratic party voter fraud had occurred and had flipped the election result) to be representative of an existential threat to the country like I do.. but imo that's probably mostly because you're inclined, like a lot of people obviously, to view any and all of this stuff through the comfort of a left/right lense where emotion and teamsportism (yeah, I'mma roll with that as a legit term) override the ability or want to critically look at a situation for what it is.
     
    The left wants one thing and the right wants something else.

    Putting aside the civil war discussion for a minute. What is it that the right wants? And when you say the right, who exactly do you mean and what percentage of America do you believe that is?

    I find it difficult to succulently describe what the left wants (I assume you have a clear idea of what that is as well), mostly because there are so many factions on the left. I can maybe describe some main points of agreement on what we would like to see, but how we get there seems very dependent on what group or faction you're talking too.

    Growing up in Louisiana and living in Texas, I've coexisted with conservatives and people on the right my entire life. I was one for many years. I have never had a problem with that until Trump came around. I have never had a problem with compromise, but that is and has been a dirty word on the right for many years. It's now a dirty word for many on the left. But I think the reason for that is that we don't share a shared foundation of truth. If we're all looking at the same thing (say Jan. 6th) and come out with two totally different realities/truth. It then becomes impossible to communicate much less compromise becase we're basically speaking two different languages.

    I don't believe America is lost yet or that we're doomed for war, but I also don't believe that's impossible. I admittedly go back and forth between wanting a separation/war and not, but deep down I know that a separation/war is going to cause a lot more pain and suffering then finding a way to compromise and coexist with each other. Even if it may in some ways be cathartic. The problem that I see is that there is no desire for that at all on the right, and that isn't a one way street.
     
    I would agree with this, but obviously replace 'anti-democracy trumpists' to 'the woke alt-left'.

    The left wants one thing and the right wants something else. The way I see it, we have 2 options. Divorce or let the states do the thing they were designed for. IMO, we need to strip the federal government of just about all power over the states. California and Florida would be and are governed completely differently. Let Cali be a test for left political experiments and Florida for right political experiments. Each state can take what they want, modify it or take parts of each.

    To make this happen, we need to take money out of politics, impossible but it should be the #1 priority if everyone wants to see this American experiment work. If you cant take money out, then term limits are a must.

    Pipe dream and not fully thought out by me, just a topic to discuss. Other wise, it will be a divorce, either mutual or very very ugly.
    What you are describing is the absolute end of the American experiment. It could be what you want, but it wouldn't be America any more.
     
    Bump this thread with a good discussion on this topic. A synopsis of the discussion in the video, a "civil war" would be asymmetrical warfare. It would take the form of domestic terrorism, and unabomber style tactics carried about by a conservative white majority losing power.

     
    What you are describing is the absolute end of the American experiment. It could be what you want, but it wouldn't be America any more.
    Why? Is America defined by arbitrary lines and territory or ideals and values?
     
    Bump this thread with a good discussion on this topic. A synopsis of the discussion in the video, a "civil war" would be asymmetrical warfare. It would take the form of domestic terrorism, and unabomber style tactics carried about by a conservative white majority losing power.


    And would you expect anything different from MSNBC?
     
    U.S. democracy had received the Polity index’s top score of 10, or close to it, for much of its history. But in the five years of the Trump era, it tumbled precipitously into the anocracy zone; by the end of his presidency, the U.S. score had fallen to a 5, making the country a partial democracy for the first time since 1800.


    This line is overlooked

    According to the people who study such things

    The last time Democracy in America was this uncertain and this unsettled the Founding Fathers were still alive
     
    Last edited:
    And would you expect anything different from MSNBC?
    Do you think they would ignore the empowerment of the white supremacists and the like? The good and sad thing is that a president of color made them much more active and vocal.

    Then we got the orange fearmonging guy as a direct result. The thing that floors me is it is so freaking obviously how it went down. Block every judge a black guy appointed. Fight everything trying to be accomplished by black guy. Run your entire campaign on erasing everything black guy did.

    Yet people think it has nothing to do with race and just how racist our nation really is.

    I know dude you certainly are not racist. Your whole keeping the race thread going must mean just that.

    Oh and where do you get your news from? Fox the people blowing smoke that the 6th was a non issue?
     
    Why? Is America defined by arbitrary lines and territory or ideals and values?
    America is meant to exist as a representative republic or a democracy, depending on who you listen to. Part of the deal is we have free and fair elections and live with the results. There isn’t anything going on to excuse breaking apart the current most powerful nation in the world. This is a loser‘s lament because they lost an election. Nothing more.

    Oh, and trust me, nobody wants to live in a place where extremists on either side have free reign with no checks and balances. You don’t want to live with your own extreme ideas, either.
     
    America is meant to exist as a representative republic or a democracy, depending on who you listen to. Part of the deal is we have free and fair elections and live with the results. There isn’t anything going on to excuse breaking apart the current most powerful nation in the world. This is a loser‘s lament because they lost an election. Nothing more.

    Oh, and trust me, nobody wants to live in a place where extremists on either side have free reign with no checks and balances. You don’t want to live with your own extreme ideas, either.
    I agree with you on everything but 1 point that I think is at the core of discontent.
    A large number of people presently do not have faith in our elections. You guys didn't after 2016, hence the changing and the continually pushing to change the voter laws. I don't know why we can't make it easy and go back to 1 day is vote day and you have to have to show up in person and present a valid ID. A person has 4 years to plan for it.
     
    Do you think they would ignore the empowerment of the white supremacists and the like? The good and sad thing is that a president of color made them much more active and vocal.

    Then we got the orange fearmonging guy as a direct result. The thing that floors me is it is so freaking obviously how it went down. Block every judge a black guy appointed. Fight everything trying to be accomplished by black guy. Run your entire campaign on erasing everything black guy did.

    Yet people think it has nothing to do with race and just how racist our nation really is.

    I know dude you certainly are not racist. Your whole keeping the race thread going must mean just that.

    Oh and where do you get your news from? Fox the people blowing smoke that the 6th was a non issue?
    I don't think this country has a white supremacist problem, despite politicians and media doing their best to create it.
    Did Biden do the exact same thing with most of the first orange president? And then he reinstated some of orange man policies because they worked? Bidens entire campaign (when he was allowed out in public) was literally "I am not orange man".

    1.6 was idiots that got emotional and rioted. If you think about it, not much different at all between them and the BLM riots. All spurned by lies.

    Do I buy into the hyperbole that our 'democracy' was under attack and all the politicians telling it was worse than pearl harbor and the civil war and all they need is more power to protect us. LOL. No. As a matter of fact, the more I see the cringe from the Dems, the more I am convinced that I am right and most are just brainwashed becasuse they believe these idiots care about anything else besides power. Votes= Money.
     
    I agree with you on everything but 1 point that I think is at the core of discontent.
    A large number of people presently do not have faith in our elections. You guys didn't after 2016, hence the changing and the continually pushing to change the voter laws. I don't know why we can't make it easy and go back to 1 day is vote day and you have to have to show up in person and present a valid ID. A person has 4 years to plan for it.
    I never thought the vote count was invalid or that there was fraud in the vote. Ever. As I recall, the concern was the interference from foreign nations, and Trump welcoming and coordinating with that interference. Which was and is a valid concern even today.

    What would be the point of only allowing one day to vote? You realize that Rs are closing voting places in minority districts? And wait times were hours and hours long? What happens if you get sick that day, you lose your right to vote? What happens if you’re bedridden or too elderly to make it to the poll? Or you can’t get off work before the polls close? Everyone cannot have the same day off. Or you don’t have time to stand in line for six hours. Or you work or serve in the military overseas?

    Trying to have every vote be in person and only on one day wouldn’t make anything easy. It would be a nightmare.
     

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