Biden's lead among blacks (1 Viewer)

Taurus

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According to this article: https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/politics/2020-election-week-ahead/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+rss/cnn_allpolitics+(RSS:+CNN+-+Politics)
Uncle Joe enjoys a massive lead among people who will in now way decide the 2020 election. Minorities in the South. I'm wondering if that dynamic is going to wind up giving us Hillary Part 2. A candidate who wins the nomination handily, then loses the general election because the primary voters who pushed them over the top live in deep red states where their votes are meaningless.

I'm not sure how either party would go about fixing this. (It's a phenomenon the GOP would face, as well. Imagine if the GOP primary came down to New York and California. You know damn well those voters aren't giving a single elector in November, yet they're deciding who's on the ballot.)
 
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Saint by the Bay

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Biden is very popular with working class whites in the rust belt, the very people that handed this country over to a semi literate reality TV star. It’s why he really does have the best chance to beat Trump, he can build back the rust belt blue wall.
 

Lazybones

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Before I read the article, my mind went exactly where the article went. His support among blacks comes from his perceived relationship with Obama.

What has Joe Biden ever done for the black community?
 

lurk

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Joe Biden is a slightly more coiffed, human version of Goofy. Does nobody remember Obama's first term and the significant question when it came time to campaign for a second term as to whether Obama needed to find a new running mate in order to get reelected (due to the constant stream of ridiculousness that came out of Biden's mouth)? Surely I can't be the only one. Rather than replace Biden, Obama just managed to get him to shut up for the next four years. Suddenly, because he shut up for four years and stood in the background as a token old, white man, he's now cool Uncle Joe and people are clamoring to elect him president? Are you kidding me? What does this man bring to the table other than the innate ability to stick his foot in his mouth? His ideas are nothing unique, and the rest of his package (including his son) frankly sucks. Anyone who looks at this man and thinks anything other than "hyuck" either has a faulty memory or was never paying attention to begin with.
 

DJ1BigTymer

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Before I read the article, my mind went exactly where the article went. His support among blacks comes from his perceived relationship with Obama.

What has Joe Biden ever done for the black community?
Biden's support for Obama may have something to do with it, but it is not the sole reason. Many blacks have seen how this country reacted to having a black President and they are concerned that if the D nominee is an other than normal democrat, Trump will win again. I truly believe that if Biden ran in 2016, Trump would have lost however, I do not believe that to be the case today. Biden has never been the sharpest tool in the shed, and today his wits are duller than they were yesterday.
 

Lazybones

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Trump is a walking gaffe machine. And the best the dems have to offer to beat him is Joe Biden. Kinda laughable. Missing with a cabbage ball.
 

Lazybones

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Biden's support for Obama may have something to do with it, but it is not the sole reason. Many blacks have seen how this country reacted to having a black President and they are concerned that if the D nominee is an other than normal democrat, Trump will win again. I truly believe that if Biden ran in 2016, Trump would have lost however, I do not believe that to be the case today. Biden has never been the sharpest tool in the shed, and today his wits are duller than they were yesterday.
His best chance was a late run in 2016.
 

Saint by the Bay

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Trump is a walking gaffe machine. And the best the dems have to offer to beat him is Joe Biden. Kinda laughable. Missing with a cabbage ball.
I don't think he's the best. I think right now he's the most familiar to casual observers. Once the field narrows and voting begins you'll see a shift I believe.
 

lurk

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Trump is a walking gaffe machine. And the best the dems have to offer to beat him is Joe Biden. Kinda laughable. Missing with a cabbage ball.
Biden is a walking gaffe machine too. The difference is that democrats and centrist independents will stay home rather than vote for someone they perceive to be mediocre. It's tough to win a fight when you're being judged by a vastly different set of rules than the other guy.
 

Lazybones

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I don't think he's the best. I think right now he's the most familiar to casual observers. Once the field narrows and voting begins you'll see a shift I believe.
I hope so. I won’t be voting for anyone on the dems stage, so don’t misunderstand my point. We need a healthy presidential battle, it’s good for the country. I don’t see Uncle Joe being able to fill that roll.
 

JimEverett

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1. Biden's support among southern blacks does not strike me as being very deep. It is certainly nowhere near as deep as Clinton's was 4 years ago. Clinton spent years and years cultivating relationships with southern blacks. Biden - not so much. So, I think it will be relatively easy to peel those voters away from Biden. But, no one on the Democratic side seems willing and/or able to really connect with them. Harris seems to have given the most effort, but isn;t really doing that much. which brings up . .

2. I am noticing that as white urban liberals become more prominent in the grassroots of Democratic Party politics that there is a clash with minority - really black - interests.
I mean the notion that suthern blacks have too much influence, or that their influence is problematic, on the eventual Democratic nominee is clearly sourced from this relatively new part of the Democratic coalition - white educated urban liberals. You can see it in the gerrymandering debate as well, and a few other areas.

Will be interesting to see if the Party can maintain a working relationship between the two and/or if Republicans can eventually exploit it.
 

Saint by the Bay

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1. Biden's support among southern blacks does not strike me as being very deep. It is certainly nowhere near as deep as Clinton's was 4 years ago. Clinton spent years and years cultivating relationships with southern blacks. Biden - not so much. So, I think it will be relatively easy to peel those voters away from Biden. But, no one on the Democratic side seems willing and/or able to really connect with them. Harris seems to have given the most effort, but isn;t really doing that much. which brings up . .

2. I am noticing that as white urban liberals become more prominent in the grassroots of Democratic Party politics that there is a clash with minority - really black - interests.
I mean the notion that suthern blacks have too much influence, or that their influence is problematic, on the eventual Democratic nominee is clearly sourced from this relatively new part of the Democratic coalition - white educated urban liberals. You can see it in the gerrymandering debate as well, and a few other areas.

Will be interesting to see if the Party can maintain a working relationship between the two and/or if Republicans can eventually exploit it.
I agree with both points, but point 2 is going to be really interesting to follow. The previous Democrat coalition of black and non-college educated whites was easier to manage because their interests were/are more closely aligned. I think the current coalition has interests more diametrically opposed.

This is part of the reason the Big Tent is a nice catchphrase, but not necessarily practical.
 
OP
OP

Taurus

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I agree with both points, but point 2 is going to be really interesting to follow. The previous Democrat coalition of black and non-college educated whites was easier to manage because their interests were/are more closely aligned. I think the current coalition has interests more diametrically opposed.

This is part of the reason the Big Tent is a nice catchphrase, but not necessarily practical.
Why would those interests be opposed?
 

Lazybones

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Point 2 is a huge problem. I agree with saint by the bay, the huge tent idea sounds great, but not practical.

When you try to appease everyone, you get a fractured base. Beto is a small example of that thinking.

It has always perplexed me with the southern black community accepting a party that supports abortion.
 

Saint by the Bay

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Why would those interests be opposed?
Well, we can start with the basics, that suburban educated whites tend to not see institutional racism as an issue. In fact, they tend to flat out deny racism at all. So any efforts to level the playing field are seen as against them. Not so with blacks.

Next, a greater percentage of the black population falls in the poor or working-class category. They have different needs from a tax code, cost of higher education, healthcare and housing standpoint than college-educated suburban whites.

Also, college-educated whites tend to not be concerned with some of the consumer protections that matter to the poor and working class. Things like predatory lenders don't really concern them.

Basically, people of similar economic backgrounds tend to be more alike than they think.
 

Saint by the Bay

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Point 2 is a huge problem. I agree with saint by the bay, the huge tent idea sounds great, but not practical.

When you try to appease everyone, you get a fractured base. Beto is a small example of that thinking.

It has always perplexed me with the southern black community accepting a party that supports abortion.
Civil rights issues are bigger than abortion. The general tribal attachment hierarchy is usually race/ethnicity -> religion -> region.
 

GMRfellowtraveller

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According to this article: https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/29/politics/2020-election-week-ahead/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+rss/cnn_allpolitics+(RSS:+CNN+-+Politics)
Uncle Joe enjoys a massive lead among people who will in now way decide the 2020 election. Minorities in the South. I'm wondering if that dynamic is going to wind up giving us Hillary Part 2. A candidate who wins the nomination handily, then loses the general election because the primary voters who pushed them over the top live in deep red states where their votes are meaningless.

I'm not sure how either party would go about fixing this. (It's a phenomenon the GOP would face, as well. Imagine if the GOP primary came down to New York and California. You know damn well those voters aren't giving a single elector in November, yet they're deciding who's on the ballot.)
the party would/should change it's primary calendar
swap s carolina with Florida
make nevada a primary
move cali ahead if super tuesday - maybe pair it with ohio
move NJ up
that should get all in play regions involved without giving too much influence to solidly red states
 

BayouSAINTJoe

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What I think is going on is that Black voters are understanding the big picture that there is a sitting President that embraces the alt-Right and all of their bigotry, xenophobia and so on. While they may not be specifically aimed @ the Black community, we're aware that this administration's policies can turn against us for the worst at any moment. We feel that Biden gives us the best chance at unseating Trump. While the pie in the sky ideals of the Left/Socialist are okay...I guess, we get that maybe this ain't the right time for any of it. Unseat Trump first, change the world later.
 
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