All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (3 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[RobF]

Keep in mind that a vaccine for children hasn't been approved yet, and I think that may be part of the equation as well. Just something to keep in mind.

That is something to keep in mind. Things also to keep in mind are those who otherwise can't be vaccinated, that we don't yet know to what extent the vaccines prevents transmission and infection (as distinct from symptomatic or severe illness and hospitalisation), and in particular that as immunity through vaccination is rolled out we are effectively selecting for variants that avoid that immunity, which is why it's best practice to continue to suppress infections through all practical means to the greatest possible extent as vaccination is rolled out.

In other words, the experts are giving good advice as things stand.

 

[wardorican]

There was simply no reason for any Republican to vote yes on the bill when they know that 50 votes was all it needed, and that Manchin would be the keystone.

The fate of the filibuster will hinge on an infrastructure bill, which needs to be the next priority for both practical and political reasons (to test the waters for any bipartisan support). The only thing controversial about an infrastructure bill will (sadly) be sustainable energy, and if it passes muster with Coal King Joe Manchin, then there is no justifiable resistance to it from the Republicans. So if they dig their feet in on that, then the filibuster is gone.

Sure there is. Optics.

 

[wardorican]

So once all willing high risk people have been vaccinated, I presume it should be okay to lift mask mandates, yet I’ve heard some experts saying that we should keep wearing masks until Fall. Fall doesn’t make sense, but I think this is another case where experts are giving out bad advice, just like when they were telling us through March that masks weren’t recommended. I knew masks made sense in January last year, and I think no masks make sense certainly by June of this year. We currently have a mandate to wear a mask on DoD property, and it’ll be interesting to see when that changes. Maintaining a mask mandate, especially when most have been vaccinated, is a bad idea. It isn’t time to lift mandates today, but if vaccinations continue at pace, unless we have new evidence about variants causing too much hospitalization risk, which we don’t have today, then it will be time to lift mandates by May. These experts need to give good advice, lest we treat them like the kid that cried wolf. Stop talking about Fall or even worse.

They're tempering the rush to remove masks, which work in stopping the spread.

Being vaccinated, with a 95% efficacy, still means a 5% chance of infection (I might be a bit too simplistic here). There haven't been enough studies yet about asymptomatic spread with vaccines (i.e. does it stop it, or not). The J&J shot is far less effective, too. So, higher risk, until enough numbers have it. Even after the final (or only) dose, you need a couple of weeks for it to work through your system.

We'll also have almost all of our kids not vaccinated, until more studies are completed. Sure, the risk of death is lower, outside of kids with Cancer, Diabetes, etc. So, when does that occur?

Remember, here we are, about 3 months into it, with about 10% of the population in most states fully vaccinated and about 20% who have had 1 dose.

We're popping out about 2Million doses a day, up to almost 3M on some days. There are about 328M adults (18+ as of 2019). So, about 33M vaccinated, and about 66M with at least one dose. That's 262M people left (if aiming for 100%). That's 131 days for all of them to have had both shots, or at least their 1st. So, add about 28 days to that for full vaccination, so 159. Add two more weeks for when it's fully effective. That's 173 days. As of Today, March 8, 173 days from now would be August 28th.

Now, I believe Fauci said to get back to normal, we just need 70-85% of the population vaccinated. Now, including kids or not? To give a best case, I"ll ignore kids, and I'll use 70%.

So, the 262M at 70% is 183.4M. That's about 92 days for everyone to get 1 shot, and then add 28 days for full vaccination and 14 more days for full effectiveness... you have 134 days. That would put us at July 20th.

So, very best case, July 20th, assuming a steady rate of 2Million a day, with an upper bound of about August 28th. Not bad, just a month past, but that takes up right up against fall. This also doesn't include kids. And this doesn't include the fact that at some point, the rate of people being vaccinated will slow down due to anti vaccination mindsets, or just being hesitant.

Basically, I think preparing people for fall isn't a bad strategy. Be honest to the public. At the same time, if data shows we can lift them early, then do so.

 

[wardorican]

On the flip side...

CDC: Vaccinated people can safely gather indoors without masks

New guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggest it is safe for fully vaccinated people to gather indoors with each other without masks.

thehill.com

New guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggest it is safe for fully vaccinated people to gather indoors with each other without masks.

The hotly anticipated guidance is limited, and only aimed at what people are safe to do in private.

"If you and a friend, or you and a family member are both vaccinated, you can have dinner together" without wearing masks or without distancing, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky told reporters Monday.

 

[Booker]

That's what I've been thinking, that we'll need to continue masking into the fall, at least indoors. We're still averaging over 60,000 new cases and around 2,000 deaths a day, and until those numbers come down, specifically the deaths, I'm fine to keep wearing a mask.

 

[MT15]

I think they plan to dramatically up the vaccination rates by April-May. I know they have plans for more mass vaccination events and the J&J vaccine being a single dose will help out a lot.

I think, or hope, that we will see significant changes by the end of June.

 

[J-DONK]

I think they plan to dramatically up the vaccination rates by April-May. I know they have plans for more mass vaccination events and the J&J vaccine being a single dose will help out a lot.

I think, or hope, that we will see significant changes by the end of June.

It will be interesting to see how far the daily vaccination rate can be pushed up. We almost hit 3 million the other day. It appears that the official start of summer will probably be when things start to feel like they are back to normal.

Also, Ward your numbers are off. There are not 328 million adults in America. There are 331 million Americans period. There are a little over 200 million adults. I believe one of the vaccines is approved for 16 and up, so we could fudge those numbers to 220 million eligible for a vaccine now. We also know that a little over 9% of the total population or let's just say 25 million are fully vaccinated. That leaves 195 million to be vaccinated.

195 X .70 = 133 / 2 = 67 days - May 14th to reach herd immunity

195 / 2 = 97 days - June 13th to vaccinate every adult. That's before the official start of summer.

This would really be the worst case scenario as well. There probably aren't that many 16-18 year olds, and the vaccination rate is regularly eclipsing 2 million now.

TL/DR Yes, schedule a summer vacation now to lock in those discount rates.

 

[Lapaz]

They're tempering the rush to remove masks, which work in stopping the spread.

Being vaccinated, with a 95% efficacy, still means a 5% chance of infection (I might be a bit too simplistic here). There haven't been enough studies yet about asymptomatic spread with vaccines (i.e. does it stop it, or not). The J&J shot is far less effective, too. So, higher risk, until enough numbers have it. Even after the final (or only) dose, you need a couple of weeks for it to work through your system.

We'll also have almost all of our kids not vaccinated, until more studies are completed. Sure, the risk of death is lower, outside of kids with Cancer, Diabetes, etc. So, when does that occur?

Remember, here we are, about 3 months into it, with about 10% of the population in most states fully vaccinated and about 20% who have had 1 dose.

We're popping out about 2Million doses a day, up to almost 3M on some days. There are about 328M adults (18+ as of 2019). So, about 33M vaccinated, and about 66M with at least one dose. That's 262M people left (if aiming for 100%). That's 131 days for all of them to have had both shots, or at least their 1st. So, add about 28 days to that for full vaccination, so 159. Add two more weeks for when it's fully effective. That's 173 days. As of Today, March 8, 173 days from now would be August 28th.

Now, I believe Fauci said to get back to normal, we just need 70-85% of the population vaccinated. Now, including kids or not? To give a best case, I"ll ignore kids, and I'll use 70%.

So, the 262M at 70% is 183.4M. That's about 92 days for everyone to get 1 shot, and then add 28 days for full vaccination and 14 more days for full effectiveness... you have 134 days. That would put us at July 20th.

So, very best case, July 20th, assuming a steady rate of 2Million a day, with an upper bound of about August 28th. Not bad, just a month past, but that takes up right up against fall. This also doesn't include kids. And this doesn't include the fact that at some point, the rate of people being vaccinated will slow down due to anti vaccination mindsets, or just being hesitant.

Basically, I think preparing people for fall isn't a bad strategy. Be honest to the public. At the same time, if data shows we can lift them early, then do so.

Not to quibble on minor stuff, but we have closer to 250M adults. We have 330M total Americans.

https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf

We’ve vaccinated at least 60M people at least once and 30M have gotten a double dose. Add in another 30M that have had Covid. So at this point at least 90M Americans should have resistance. If estimates are correct that at least 1/3rd of people got it asymptotically, then we’re over 100M. We know some people can still get sick with 1 dose, but hospitalizations are practically eliminated. If we do at least 2M per day for the next 60 days, then we’ll be up to 220M with resistance. Children are practically not a problem, so that leaves less than 30M adult Americans still unvaccinated by 8 May. By the end of May, all of them should be vaccinated. Thus by June, we should not need masks.

 

[wardorican]

Not to quibble on minor stuff, but we have closer to 250M adults. We have 330M total Americans.

https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-03.pdf

We’ve vaccinated at least 60M people at least once and 30M have gotten a double dose. Add in another 30M that have had Covid. So at this point at least 90M Americans should have resistance. If estimates are correct that at least 1/3rd of people got it asymptotically, then we’re over 100M. We know some people can still get sick with 1 dose, but hospitalizations are practically eliminated. If we do at least 2M per day for the next 60 days, then we’ll be up to 220M with resistance. Children are practically not a problem, so that leaves less than 30M adult Americans still unvaccinated by 8 May. By the end of May, all of them should be vaccinated. Thus by June, we should not need masks.

Crap, I was looking that up too fast...

 

[insidejob]

Hey, Louisiana! Governor Edwards is going to be announcing at noon that vaccines are basically open to whoever wants them. Being overweight or a smoker are reasons for eligibility, so I'm going to get it ASAP.

The article I read said things could change before the press conference, but I don't think they'd have leaked all that if it was going to.

Edwards to allow many more people to get COVID vaccine (radio.com)

There is a link to a longer article in the Advocate in the WWL link too, but it doesn't really say much more.,

 

[JRad]

Hey, Louisiana! Governor Edwards is going to be announcing at noon that vaccines are basically open to whoever wants them. Being overweight or a smoker are reasons for eligibility, so I'm going to get it ASAP.

The article I read said things could change before the press conference, but I don't think they'd have leaked all that if it was going to.

Edwards to allow many more people to get COVID vaccine (radio.com)

There is a link to a longer article in the Advocate in the WWL link too, but it doesn't really say much more.,

"immunocompromised state from blood or bone marrow transplant, immune deficiencies, HIV, use of corticosteroids or use of other immune weakening medicines "

This pleases me.

 

[insidejob]

"immunocompromised state from blood or bone marrow transplant, immune deficiencies, HIV, use of corticosteroids or use of other immune weakening medicines "

This pleases me.

I heard from people who have gotten it that when you get there, they don't even ask about any of this. They just want to get people vaccinated.

 

[JRad]

I heard from people who have gotten it that when you get there, they don't even ask about any of this. They just want to get people vaccinated.

It's easy for me to work from home/isolate, so I still weigh that against any extra risk. Now that it (may be) official, I wouldn't feel as guilty.

 

[insidejob]

It's easy for me to work from home/isolate, so I still weigh that against any extra risk. Now that it (may be) official, I wouldn't feel as guilty.

I'm getting it. I do smoke (I really vape now but still smoke about a pack every other week) and I'm not seriously overweight, but according to those silly BMI charts, I am like 15 lbs. overweight.

Now that the seriously at risk, elderly and front line workers have had ample opportunity to get it, I don't see why anyone who wants it should have to wait. My dad's Trump logic for not getting it is that he isn't getting it BECAUSE he has cancer and gets chemo treatments. It makes me want to scream.

 

[Nebaghead]

Nebraska governor took high risk people off the list of the 1 group and put them with the general public. He added an over 50 group instead. I’m 48 with type 1 diabetes. Luckily I’m in decent shape and have my blood sugars under control. Before his change, I would be eligible for the vaccine the last week of March now I have to wait 5-6 more weeks.

 

[insidejob]

Nebraska governor took high risk people off the list of the 1 group and put them with the general public. He added an over 50 group instead. I’m 48 with type 1 diabetes. Luckily I’m in decent shape and have my blood sugars under control. Before his change, I would be eligible for the vaccine the last week of March now I have to wait 5-6 more weeks.

That sounds needless. Is there some sort of supply problem or issue with distribution/people to do the injection?

 

[insidejob]

IDK if these numbers are accurate, but I wish it were higher for people over 65. Is it that they can't access the vaccine or are choosing not to get it? Anyway, that is still a hell of a lot of vaccines into peoples' arms in that span of time. I suppose that's why LA is supposedly opening it up today to younger people. The numbers must've plateaued and if they've got the shots, stick someone with them.

 

[wardorican]

IDK if these numbers are accurate, but I wish it were higher for people over 65. Is it that they can't access the vaccine or are choosing not to get it? Anyway, that is still a hell of a lot of vaccines into peoples' arms in that span of time. I suppose that's why LA is supposedly opening it up today to younger people. The numbers must've plateaued and if they've got the shots, stick someone with them.

Well, what does vaccinated mean. Fully, or one shot? That determines that statistic a lot.

Secondly, I think both. I think some are waiting to get it, like my dad, or others may never get it. Then you have access issues. Many sites only allow internet sign up. So, not everyone in the 65+ crowd is internet savvy, let alone competent. Now that supply is out at a reasonable level, in Florida you still have 65+ competing with medical workers and those of us deemed high risk. So, the elderly that aren't good with computers, get shoved back. Then county/state/federal sites, sometimes are too far way, or the seniors just don't feel like hoofing it to sit around for 4 hours to wait in line. I mean, some seniors can't be 4 hours away from a bathroom (heck, sometimes I can't either!).

While DeSantis caught flack for it, and probably rightfully so, partnering with senior centers / communities wasn't a bad idea. It's a good way to make it easy on folks. They just need to do the same downtown, or have a couple local Publix/CVS/Walgreens not bother with online sign up and have a Senior's day/week, or have an in person sign up, if needed.

Basically, whatever strategies get the word out and make it more accessible for the elderly. Then, eventually everyone else.