All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (10 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[Taurus]

Profit over people. Did anyone expect different?

 

[reubenray]

How many of the people who have died are over the age of 65?

My question is how many of these people had weak immune systems that would have died from a bad flu season instead of this?

 

[reubenray]

What they did was basically not use the words “airline” or “cruise ship” and instead broadly defined conditions to avoid. They are willing to risk people’s’ live to avoid harming those industries.

The cruise industry needs to shut down completely. There are too many people in a too small of a place to prevent infections from spreading. Cruises are only for pleasure.

The US airline industry needs to restrict (or halt) all flights coming in the US. The ones that cannot be stopped need to have a facility to screen all passengers before they mix up with everyone else. The flights inside (and the airport terminals) the US needs to start doing heavy screening of passengers.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Not sure if here or the trump tracker thread is best for this
========================


President Trump likes to say that he fell into politics almost by accident, and on Friday, as he sought to calm a nation gripped with fears over coronavirus, he suggested he would have thrived in another profession — medical expert.

“I like this stuff. I really get it,” Trump boasted to reporters during a tour of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, where he met with actual doctors and scientists who are feverishly scrambling to contain and combat the deadly illness.

Citing a “great, super-genius uncle” who taught at MIT, Trump professed that it must run in the family genes.

“People are really surprised I understand this stuff,” he said. “Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.”.........

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/maybe-i-have-a-natural-ability-trump-plays-medical-expert-on-coronavirus-by-second-guessing-the-professionals/2020/03/06/3ee0574c-5ffb-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html

 

[Lapaz]

My question is how many of these people had weak immune systems that would have died from a bad flu season instead of this?

Obviously some of the people that died from Covid-19 would’ve died from the standard flu, but they are measured in the mortality rate of the standard flu, and yet the standard flu has a much lower mortality rate than Covid-19. The average mortality of the standard flu is 0.1% while I contend that Covid-19 is 6%. I keep hearing reports that the mortality rate of Covid is much lower. I’ve heard as low as 0.6%, which is still 6 times higher than the average flu, but that number puts all identified cases in the denominator. I don’t think that is how the flu mortality is calculated. After the flu season ends, the add all deaths and divide it by total recovered to get the mortality. We’re in the midst of Covid, so we should not count the people that have not recovered to calculate mortality.

Given the apparently extremely high mortality, this should be considered a national emergency. It is being treated as an emergency in spots, but not nationally. Prohibiting the weak from traveling and from going places that will expose them is prudent and will save lives. It is the only thing that will keep the mortality rate down

 

[Lapaz]

BTW, I think there is a high likelihood that Trump, Biden and Sanders will all get infected due to their constant exposure to crowds. They are in the high risk age group, but will certainly get the best treatments. I bet they will be given that experimental vaccine.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Events, concerts and games are being cancelled left and right

People are concerned about mass transit or being anywhere with large crowds

If the situation, heaven forbid, gets worse and lasts until then what would that mean for Election Day?

 

[JimEverett]

One chart shows 11 countries' current coronavirus death rates, based on the known number of cases and deaths

The death rate for the coronavirus varies around the world — but that's likely because some countries are testing more people than others.

www.google.com

WHO’s 3.4 is a snapshot in time.

• China 3.8.
• S.Korea 0.6.
• US 5.6.
• Japan 1.5
• Italy 3.8
• Studies suggest 1.4 would be global

There are a ton of factors that go into this such as average age of population, testing capacity, hospital and icu beds per person, etc. What is known is that Covid-19 is a new virus that we have no record for previous human exposure and probably less immunity than the flu.

Basically, it is impossible to get an accurate fatality rate right now:

“It’s hard to say what the case-fatality rates are until the dust settles,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at UC San Francisco.

“It’s not a statistic to be looking at kind of on an ongoing basis, even though I do it just as much as everybody else does,” he admitted.

That includes members of Congress. On Wednesday, they asked Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, what was going on. He urged them not to get so fixated on the fatality rate, emphasizing that scientists still have a lot to learn about it.

What is the fatality rate for the new coronavirus, and why does it keep changing?

The fatality rate for the new coronavirus keeps changing. For weeks it remained at around 2%, then it seemed to drop to 1% before climbing above 3%. What gives?

www.latimes.com

 

[Intensesaint]

BTW, I think there is a high likelihood that Trump, Biden and Sanders will all get infected due to their constant exposure to crowds. They are in the high risk age group, but will certainly get the best treatments. I bet they will be given that experimental vaccine.

I was thinking this too.

 

[Lapaz]

Basically, it is impossible to get an accurate fatality rate right now:

I can’t read the article you posted without paying, but I think there’s plenty of evidence to assess mortality of confirmed cases. About 58,000 people have recovered while about 3500 have died. There are places that have done widespread testing of even asymptomatic people, so they know who is infected, and their mortalities are lower, so it will probably be lower, but the best case scenario is 0.6%, but likely closer to 2%. Imagine if 100M Americans get sick and 2M die. We have to prevent this virus from spreading that far, which means we can’t treat prevention like a normal flu.

 

[SystemShock]

I can’t read the article you posted without paying, but I think there’s plenty of evidence to assess mortality of confirmed cases. About 58,000 people have recovered while about 3500 have died. There are places that have done widespread testing of even asymptomatic people, so they know who is infected, and their mortalities are lower, so it will probably be lower, but the best case scenario is 0.6%, but likely closer to 2%.

But you really don't know.

I get that organizations like WHO and CDC have complex statistical models to make approximations, but they are approximations. As much as we would like to know how many people are infected, we really don't. To know someone is infected, they have to be screened. And if the virus is as infectious as some make it out to be, the number of infected people will have to be much, much higher than what's being reported.

Now, don't get me wrong... I am not saying we should just forget about it. But I don't feel there should be panic over it.

 

[dtc]

But you really don't know.

I get that organizations like WHO and CDC have complex statistical models to make approximations, but they are approximations. As much as we would like to know how many people are infected, we really don't. To know someone is infected, they have to be screened. And if the virus is as infectious as some make it out to be, the number of infected people will have to be much, much higher than what's being reported.

Now, don't get me wrong... I am not saying we should just forget about it. But I don't feel there should be panic over it.

Panic is stupid. Panicking leads to bad decisions and death.

Panic is the last thing we need to do other than be lied to by our President and lulled into a sense of ignorant serenity.

 

[GMRfellowtraveller]

But you really don't know.

I get that organizations like WHO and CDC have complex statistical models to make approximations, but they are approximations. As much as we would like to know how many people are infected, we really don't. To know someone is infected, they have to be screened. And if the virus is as infectious as some make it out to be, the number of infected people will have to be much, much higher than what's being reported.

Now, don't get me wrong... I am not saying we should just forget about it. But I don't feel there should be panic over it.

Is your uncle a genius, too?

 

[wardorican]

Events, concerts and games are being cancelled left and right

People are concerned about mass transit or being anywhere with large crowds

If the situation, heaven forbid, gets worse and lasts until then what would that mean for Election Day?

I was on three flights in the last 4 days. All of them were near full.

 

[Intensesaint]

I was on three flights in the last 4 days. All of them were near full.
[/QUOT
Damn.. I don't like flying in general because of them being flying albumin Petri dishes.

 

[Lapaz]

I know that health care providers and sick people need the masks before everyone else, but anyone that is going to be in a crowd would probably benefit from a mask. If nothing else, it is hard to touch your mucous membranes with a mask on. I hope in addition to the surge of test kits, so we know who is and who isn't sick, I hope we also have a surge of masks for at least vulnerable people. I'm confident that I'll be fine even if I get sick, but we need to prevent the vulnerable from getting sick. It seems that everyone in China is donning masks, and they seem to be getting it under control.

 

[Lapaz]

But you really don't know.

I get that organizations like WHO and CDC have complex statistical models to make approximations, but they are approximations. As much as we would like to know how many people are infected, we really don't. To know someone is infected, they have to be screened. And if the virus is as infectious as some make it out to be, the number of infected people will have to be much, much higher than what's being reported.

Now, don't get me wrong... I am not saying we should just forget about it. But I don't feel there should be panic over it.

You're right that we don't really know, and South Korea gives me great hope that the mortality rate will be very low, since they have only had about 42 deaths out of 6284 confirmed cases, and they've tested over 100,000, so they probably have identifed nearly everyone that got it. They seem to have done more than any other country to assess their population. If their results are replicated elsewhere, then that would make the mortality rate similar to the normal flu, however there are a couple of strains, so it remains to be seen.

 

[B4YOU]

@Lapaz @JimEverett

S. Korea is probably near the floor for mortality at 0.6% which is 6x the flu. S. Korea is doing the broadest testing and has the second most hospital beds per person. They have been preparing for an emergency for the last 60+ years. They are built to respond to this. Italy’s first case was 9 days after S. Korea. Both have about 7,300 cases. But Italy is at 3.8% mortality and just added about 1500 cases compared to S.K. 250 with much broader testing. Government response and capacity is a major determining factor in cases and deaths.

Do you trust our government and leadership to be more like S.K. or Italy?



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