All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (5 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[V Chip]

This isn't a direct response to either of you, but I'm using it as a launch point.

...

And JimEverett's post, kind of made me think about the fragileness of our economy. We supposedly had the best economy ever (and I agree that it was very good). But we can't survive a month without massive bailouts? What does that say about us? How do we account for risk in our planning? Should we create stronger incentives for savings vs. consumerism? Or should the government not worry about modifying behavior but explicitly have a plan in place (and savings ready) for when we inevitably run into these problems?

Sorry, just meandering thoughts this morning.

Very good post and I agree with a lot of it.

However, I disagree on the "very good" economy. Many people claim it was a "booming" economy when in reality Trump's first 3 years -- before any COVID-19 related impact -- was very slightly better than the last 3 years of Obama's economy that many of those same people called "weak," and that was with a Congress that was explicitly fighting him at every opportunity. Trump's economy had a bump at the beginning, caused mostly I think by two things: 1), businesses taking the choke off that was put on because of the partisanship between Congress and the Administration, finally thinking they will see less bickering and gamesmanship (like shutdowns or fights over debt ceilings and the like) and more action even if it isn't the best action, and 2) the tax cut that (IMO) artificially created a boost in business spending which was mostly in the form of stock buybacks and bonuses and not investment into the long-term economy. And once those two predictably wore off, his economy sputtered and was not looking good at all before the COVID-19 outbreak put a huge wrench into things. I think too many people buy into the "strong"economy messaging based off of two things only: historically low unemployment numbers, and the stock market -- both of which now are way different than before because of the COVID-19 situation and both of which were not sustainable long-term IMO even without COVID-19.

 

[Optimus Prime]

I do wonder what the pivot/deflection from Trump/Governors/Fox will be if reopening these states right now ends up being a huge disaster

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

Very good post and I agree with a lot of it.

However, I disagree on the "very good" economy. Many people claim it was a "booming" economy when in reality Trump's first 3 years -- before any COVID-19 related impact -- was very slightly better than the last 3 years of Obama's economy that many of those same people called "weak," and that was with a Congress that was explicitly fighting him at every opportunity. Trump's economy had a bump at the beginning, caused mostly I think by two things: 1), businesses taking the choke off that was put on because of the partisanship between Congress and the Administration, finally thinking they will see less bickering and gamesmanship (like shutdowns or fights over debt ceilings and the like) and more action even if it isn't the best action, and 2) the tax cut that (IMO) artificially created a boost in business spending which was mostly in the form of stock buybacks and bonuses and not investment into the long-term economy. And once those two predictably wore off, his economy sputtered and was not looking good at all before the COVID-19 outbreak put a huge wrench into things. I think too many people buy into the "strong"economy messaging based off of two things only: historically low unemployment numbers, and the stock market -- both of which now are way different than before because of the COVID-19 situation and both of which were not sustainable long-term IMO even without COVID-19.

Well, I thought the economy under Obama was very good too.

The biggest downside to the economy under Trump was the large increase of the deficit. But I'm not a huge deficit hawk - I just want to know what it is I'm buying with the added debt, which I don't think I have a good answer for.

 

[lurk]

I do wonder what the pivot/deflection will be from Trump/Governors/Fox will be if reopening these states right now ends up being a huge disaster

It will be a multi-phase plan of throwing shirt at a wall to see what sticks. One part will be that the governors (operating independently of and in opposition to Donald Trump) shouldn't have reopened the states so early. The models and information were there to tell them otherwise, yet they pressed on with reopening despite the cautious approach advocated by the White House and, in particular, Donald J. Trump who was often having to admonish even Dr. Fauci to slow down and take a closer look at the data. Regrettably, there was little Mr. Trump could do to stop these reckless governors from moving ahead with their ill-conceived plans because state's rights and all, and Donald is nothing if not a small government kind of guy.

Another component will be shouting so loudly about how deeply the states that didn't reopen quickly hurt their citizens (whether or not there is evidence to support this and whether or not there is evidence to support aid being purposely denied to residents of these states and testing and PPE supplies being intentionally denied to and/or stolen from these states) that the narration shifts to the enslavement of the free people from the blue states as being the real problem. Sure the states that opened quickly may have hurt their citizens, but at least they were free American citizens and not confined to gulags by their pinko commie overlords like their blue state comrades.

Lastly, many claims will be made that nobody could possibly have known that reopening states so soon would lead to a resurgence (in direct contrast to the earlier evidence-was-all-there-but-the-governors-wouldnt't-listen-to-it strategy). The people who most need to be able to recognize this discrepancy will be entirely unable to see it, despite tens of pages in this thread dedicated to pointing it out to them.

In short, the following, in any order deemed useful:

Trump tried to stop it but nobody would listen/he was powerless to do anything/these crappy governors need to learn how to govern.

Blue states bad, much worse than red states.

Who could have known? There was no possible way.

That's the narrative. The groundwork has already been laid for it. Political appointees who are already saying and doing ridiculous things at the behest of this administration that they know better about (such as the lackey who runs the CDC) will be sacrificed as scape goats to make everyone happy. People will be too lazy and stupid to fact check any of this, and so the strategy will be successful, as it has been for years.

Soon we'll have people on here start pushing the narrative as they start being told about it by their favorite "news" organizations, and then we'll eventually get a solid couple months of the usual suspects going round and round in this thread refusing to hear that the narrative they're pushing has no actual basis in reality. It will continue to keep this thread as unreadable, useless, and fact-devoid as it has been thus far.

 

[dtc]

Well, I thought the economy under Obama was very good too.

The biggest downside to the economy under Trump was the large increase of the deficit. But I'm not a huge deficit hawk - I just want to know what it is I'm buying with the added debt, which I don't think I have a good answer for.

I'm not a deficit hawk today, but I am when the economy is rocking along. During the last couple of Obama's years it was headed the right direction. And then boom! A republican gets in office, cuts taxes for the rich and blows up the deficit at precisely the time when we should have been paying the debt off.

It's like clockwork.

 

[JimEverett]

I do wonder what the pivot/deflection will be from Trump/Governors/Fox will be if reopening these states right now ends up being a huge disaster

What would be a disaster?
I see two different views of this broadly speaking. I think most everyone has agreed that th possibility of hospitals being overwhelmed by orders of magnitude was too great a risk to take and ordered the shutdowns across most of the country that we have seen.
At that point the differences emerge - some seem to think that we have reached a point that the medical infrastructure in their state is prepared enough. This is contrasted with a belief that anything that might result in more deaths is wrong.
If, as an example, Tennessee opens back up and Tennessee hospitals become overwhelmed a few weeks later where people are left without treatment then I am not sure ho that could possibly be spun as good.
But if the medical infrastructure can handle whatever comes, then I am not sure people will agree that it is a disaster because of an increase in cases and deaths.

By the same token, what is the endgame for places that are not opening up? Is the idea that we should not open up until and unless there is a vaccine? Absent that, I am not sure how you can avoid more cases and more death, it just comes with the added problem of increased poverty.

BTW - I do think, even for my State, that May 1 is too early for a complete "opening up" I am hoping there is slow phase-in, but the details have not come out yet.

 

[JimEverett]

I'm not a deficit hawk today, but I am when the economy is rocking along. During the last couple of Obama's years it was headed the right direction. And then boom! A republican gets in office, cuts taxes for the rich and blows up the deficit at precisely the time when we should have been paying the debt off.

It's like clockwork.

To continue the agreement-fest, I am not a deficit hawk either. But when you are piling up deficits that are approaching 4.5% of GDP and are seeing growth of basically 2.5% a year - then that is not good policy.

 

[samiam5211]

The sad part it is not really seasonal. H2b is what they use for that.

H2b labor like used by trump golf courses is for nine months.

That is not seasonal. That is all but one season.

They can really do just about anything that is not crop work and have no way to become a legal us citizen from a h2b work visa.

If you ever look into the types of legal illegal visas it is absolutely scary what the corporate world does to not pay Americans a living wage.

No immigrant visas are not impacted at all.

USCIS has suspended adjudication of form I-485. That is all that has changed.

They are significantly loosening the rules around H2A, H1B, and J1 (probably what an Aupair uses, but also many doctors) visas.

This isn’t about keeping people out, it’s about taking away the rights that would come with lawful permanent resident status from some among the immigrant population who already live here.

 

[The moose]

No immigrant visas are not impacted at all.

USCIS has suspended adjudication of form I-485. That is all that has changed.

They are significantly loosening the rules around H2A, H1B, and J1 (probably what an Aupair uses, but also many doctors) visas.

This isn’t about keeping people out, it’s about taking away the rights that would come with lawful permanent resident status from some among the immigrant population who already live here.

No immigrant visas are not impacted at all.

USCIS has suspended adjudication of form I-485. That is all that has changed.

They are significantly loosening the rules around H2A, H1B, and J1 (probably what an Aupair uses, but also many doctors) visas.

This isn’t about keeping people out, it’s about taking away the rights that would come with lawful permanent resident status from some among the immigrant population who already live here.

I know that never said it would.


Why would they do away with the whole legal illegal scam to not pay Americans a living wage?

Why would they actively close that workaround to keep wages down for the rich Americans?

That would be like accually shutting down Airline travel!

 

[Dragon]

"I believe this transfer was in response to my insistence that the government invest the billions of dollars allocated by Congress to address the Covid-19 pandemic into safe and scientifically vetted solutions, and not in drugs, vaccines and other technologies that lack scientific merit," Bright said in a lengthy statement issued Wednesday. "I am speaking out because to combat this deadly virus, science -- not politics or cronyism -- has to lead the way."
He cited "clashes with political leadership" as a reason for his sidelining, as well as his resistance to "efforts to fund potentially dangerous drugs promoted by those with political connections."

Bright said Wednesday he will request that the HHS inspector general "investigate the manner in which this administration has politicized the work of BARDA and has pressured me and other conscientious scientists to fund companies with political connections as well as efforts that lack scientific merit."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics/rick-bright-barda-trump-coronavirus/index.html


It should really be a very big concern for everybody that the one person who is supposed to lead this country through its biggest crisis since WWII seem to have been willing to pressure scientists to spend money on a cure produced by 1) a company he has economic ties to 2) Scientists around the world now says that studies shows that more people die WITH the drug than without. 3) retaliate against those who are the experts in infectious diseases when they won't back up his claims that the drug in question is the wonderdrug which cures Covid19

 

[dtc]

To continue the agreement-fest, I am not a deficit hawk either. But when you are piling up deficits that are approaching 4.5% of GDP and are seeing growth of basically 2.5% a year - then that is not good policy.

Yep, but why is it that people who tend to want a balanced budget vote for Republicans who only in obstruction have ever approached a balanced budget?

 

[N.O.Bronco]

Well, I thought the economy under Obama was very good too.

The biggest downside to the economy under Trump was the large increase of the deficit. But I'm not a huge deficit hawk - I just want to know what it is I'm buying with the added debt, which I don't think I have a good answer for.

Whats not to understand?

We bought rich people more money, congrats!

...Cue some trained conservative saying how if you want to cut taxes you have to cut rich people’s taxes because they pay the most and something about a horse and a sparrow. To which the simple response is, no, you actually don’t need to do either, and shouldn’t. Not under those economic conditions, not with that economic imbalance between production and consumption.

 

[Beach Friends]

I have enjoyed readi8ng you guys talk about this.

I don't know that there's any real difference between reporting kids out playing basketball and reporting kids for throwing toilet paper or eggs or stealing hub caps. I would likely do neither, but when I engage the rational side of my brain, I think there's more danger in the social interaction and ignoring the potential harm to others from social engagement than petty mischief.

Real property crimes are not what I was considering.

I wouldn't call the police on kids rolling a yard - not even my own yard.

Do you think you wouldn't call the cops if you witnessed somebody stealing your neighbors hubcaps? That seems odd to me.

Would you call the cops if you someone buying house paint? Or, you saw a family of 4 out on their boat? Or, you overheard your neighbor mention that he was going to take the wife to their second home for the weekend?

I just can't join in that kind of nonsense.

 

[dtc]

I wouldn't call the police on kids rolling a yard - not even my own yard.

Do you think you wouldn't call the cops if you witnessed somebody stealing your neighbors hubcaps? That seems odd to me.

Would you call the cops if you someone buying house paint? Or, you saw a family of 4 out on their boat? Or, you overheard your neighbor mention that he was going to take the wife to their second home for the weekend?

I just can't join in that kind of nonsense.

Well, as far as I know, most of the shelter at home directions have been toothless and unenforceable. I don't know that anyone in our area has had any issue other than being talked to.

There was a large group of kids that assembled at a public basketball park and wasn't hassled at all. It drew the ire of the local get off my lawn crowd. More recently, there was a big deal made about a get together of kids at a local public housing complex. That got some attention on facebook, but no arrests. I think the beaches being closed have resulted in police telling people to leave, but sheriffs around here have publicly said they're not arresting anyone.

I think the Michigan restrictions have been a bit more stringent, but don't know.

You're more up on this stuff so please tell us where are the laws actually being enforced? Has anyone been busted for violation? I seem to recall someone getting hassled for something, but here the local libertarian/plumber guy made a point of telling Marine Patrol they couldn't do anything to him for assembling on a public beach.

 

[Beach Friends]

Well, as far as I know, most of the shelter at home directions have been toothless and unenforceable. I don't know that anyone in our area has had any issue other than being talked to.

There was a large group of kids that assembled at a public basketball park and wasn't hassled at all. It drew the ire of the local get off my lawn crowd. More recently, there was a big deal made about a get together of kids at a local public housing complex. That got some attention on facebook, but no arrests. I think the beaches being closed have resulted in police telling people to leave, but sheriffs around here have publicly said they're not arresting anyone.

I think the Michigan restrictions have been a bit more stringent, but don't know.

You're more up on this stuff so please tell us where are the laws actually being enforced? Has anyone been busted for violation? I seem to recall someone getting hassled for something, but here the local libertarian/plumber guy made a point of telling Marine Patrol they couldn't do anything to him for assembling on a public beach.

I haven't kept up with it, but there have been some notable examples like the 15 Jewish guys arrested/or charged for attending a funeral in NJ, the man who was detained playing catch with his daughter and wife on an otherwise empty ballfields, the guy who was arrested surfing by himself.

 

[surada]

The Netherlands thought they could take a herd immunity approach initially, which morphed into an 'intelligent lockdown.' So similar to the UK to some extent. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52135814

Sweden sees jump in coronavirus deaths with less restrictive guidelines under scrutiny

Sweden sees jump in coronavirus deaths with less restrictive guidelines under scrutiny

Sweden, with a population of 10 million, may be paying a heavy price for embracing the idea of herd immunity — that is, letting many individuals get sick to build up immunity in the population. The Nordic country had reported 1,540 deaths tied to the coronavirus pandemic, an increase of 29 from...

www.foxnews.com

 

[surada]

I am with you. Broke but will figure it all out.

I don't see anything except for a dead cat bounce to this whole economy. A mad rush then they realize they can't really afford anything or get scared. Or worst yet they don't need that 5 buck coffee anymore or they actually learned how to cook better.

People will only do what they are comfortable with doing. The government needs to take the lead and test. Testing will build consumer confidence. Consumer confidence is the key to getting consumers after all this.

I know for one I finally quit smoking and don't drink crazy expensive coffees anymore. That is gonna free up major cash if work comes back well.

I see that new cheap motorcycle in my future because Americans are not gonna have toy money for a long time.

Well honey, this old lady won't be riding a hog any time soon … or should say EVER. I've never had a $5 coffee in my life.

Since everyone is cooped up why not be thinking how we can have this clear air after the virus passes?????

 

[Heathen]

The levels of delusion running through the minds of certain leaders in this country dead (pun fully intended) set on forcing their hand in opening back up the economy is astounding.

The Mayor of LV offers her citizens as a 'control group' :

Las Vegas Mayor Offers Up Her City to See How Many Die Without Social Distancing

Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman told CNN she wants her city to be a “test case” to see if social distancing measures actually save lives.

nymag.com