All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (20 Viewers)

[Maxp]

I fear we are really going to be in a bad place due to the obvious cuts to the federal agencies that deal with infectious disease, but also the negative effect the Affordable Care act has had on non urban hospitals. Our front line defenses are ineffectual and our ability to treat the populous is probably at an all time low. Factor in the cost of healthcare and I can see our system crashing. What do you think about the politics of this virus?

 

[surada]

Ladies and Gentlemen, the President of the United States:

9AM: "Cuomo's been calling daily, even hourly, begging for everything, most of which should have been the state's responsibility, such as new hospitals, beds, ventilators, etc. I got it all done for him, and everyone else, and now he seems to want independence! that won't happen!"

10AM: "Tell the Democrat Governors that "Mutiny On The Bounty" was one of my all time favorite movies. A good old fashioned mutiny every now and then is an exciting and invigorating thing to watch, especially when the mutineers need so much from the Captain. Too easy!"

6PM: "We have beautiful pieces beautiful states with capable governors. They know when it's time to open, and we don't want to put pressure on anybody. I'm not gonna put any pressure on any governor to open. I'm not gonna say to Governor Cuomo, 'you've gotta open in 7 days.' I want him to take his time, do it right, and then open New York."

Trump is very sick..

We Actually DO Know What Is Wrong With Trump’s Mental State

Ask just about anyone about Trump’s psychology, and they conclude that, like all bullies, he is a very insecure person. As many have noted: “You don’t need a fancy diploma to figure out what is wrong with Trump.” I would agree — even though I do have a...

www.dailykos.com

 

[N.O.Bronco]

In a world where conservatives had ideological consistency, that flip flop would have just split his base.

And a number of people proud of Trump being bullish on reopening the economy would be very angry at Trump and doubling down that the president is dead wrong.

I haven’t been officially diagnosed with the ability to read the future, but my senses are telling me that won’t actually happen.

More incredible though is that Trump is still talking about the need to reopen quickly as we just blew past our record for deaths in a single day after Saturday was supposed to be the pinnacle....And it really brings levity to some of the absurd prescriptions offered int he last 24 hours toward just flinging the gates back open immediately.

 

[not2rich]

In a world where conservatives had ideological consistency, that flip flop would have just split his base.

And a number of posters proud of Trump being bullish on reopening the economy would make their next post angry at Trump and doubling down that the president is dead wrong.

I haven’t been officially diagnosed with the ability to read the future, but my senses are telling me that won’t actually happen.

More incredible though is that Trump is still talking about the need to reopen quickly as we just broke our record for deaths in a single day after Saturday was supposed to be the pinnacle.

The pressure to reopen the economy is natural, because it is drowning right now. The problem is that we need a trained lifeguard to rescue it, when what we have is some dude who doesn't know how to swim.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

The pressure to reopen the economy is natural, because it is drowning right now. The problem is that we need a trained lifeguard to rescue it, when what we have is some dude who doesn't know how to swim.

As usual, Trump is his own worst enemy and his incompetence and ignorance is enabling and then compounding his failure.

What Trump needed to do to minimize the economic damage was admit his early failings and get all the brightest minds he could, not yes-man sycophants, and use all the levers at his disposal to fast track as many tests, PPE, and resources needed to quickly build a robust testing and contact tracing system whlie helping raise the healthcare capacity of the most vulnerable areas. Ideally, putting in charge a dedicated expert that could focus solely on this task as the president is inevitably forced to contend with multiple concerns and only has the capacity to set the broad agenda.

But when you refuse to acknowedge reality after spending three years hollowing out the very state and cabinet you need to execute this balancing act in a crisis, this is the result you get: World leading deaths and infection rates and two months in with no clear strategy or benchmarking.

 

[Beach Friends]

I was reading some quotes from one of the heads of WHO about influenza, and how beyond vaccination, which we know is not 100%, and its effectiveness varies from season to season, )there is no effort to contain it. We just accept people will die from it, and that's that.

LLP p

Could you link that study? I haven't read it, and I'm trying to keep up to date. I know some people were touting the testing results in Iceland, but that actually shows the opposite.




You're kind of all over here. I'm asking if you are basing your recommendation on some sort of data analysis or if you are going by your gut feeling?

What is the economic value of a human life? And what are the broader macroeconomic impacts of hundreds of thousands of people dying in a year and clogging up the health care system.

I don't think anyone here is advocating a complete shut down for years on end. I think the idea of a shut down is to buy time to ramp up testing capacity, increase medical capacity, hopefully develop treatments, and so on. Has that been done? Do you have confidence that if we lift restrictions in May our health care facilities can deal with the outbreaks? Etc?

I don't have a link, sorry. The Economist had a write up and a link to study by some Duke professors. Stanford is conducting a study on the West coast to get an how widespread the infection rate is there. The main problem is what it has always been - coming up with a denominator.

I think in the end the numbers are going to reflect what we already know - there are a lot more people who have been infected than the original numbers assumed.

It's a weird bug - IDK of too many flu strains that people have no idea they have had. So, while on one end of the spectrum it is deadly on the other end people are asymptomatic.

 

[Heathen]

The same dude who wants to rush to re-open the economy during a pandemic is criticizing the WHO for the coronavirus response:

Trump halts funding for the World Health Organization

President Donald Trump accused the WHO of "severely mismanaging and covering up" the coronavirus crisis, specifically the initial outbreak in Wuhan, China.

www.nbcnews.com

This is what happens when you get an egotistical dolt who thinks money can solve every problem gets into office.

But who can blame him? His outlook on life is shaped by the handouts he got.

 

[Nebaghead]

Oh my, I guess all the posters who made fun of my comment about Trump wanting his signature on the paper checks would cause a delay should apologize. I will wait here for you to eat your crow. Probably won’t happen.
Bottom of the article talks about how the IT people are having to scramble to get it added and it isn’t just a 10 second swipe of the card.
This delay will impact 70 million people.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coming-to-your-1200-relief-check-donald-j-trumps-name/2020/04/14/071016c2-7e82-11ea-8013-1b6da0e4a2b7_story.html%3foutputType=amp

 

[SystemShock]

So let it go?


CDC Says This Year’s Flu Vaccine Much More Effective Than ...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/02/21/...
Feb 21, 2020 · In general, when the influenza virus strains in the vaccine match the strains that are circulating the population, such effectiveness tends to be between 40% and 60%.

Let what go?

 

[Lapaz]

I wasn't. I was comparing activities that will no doubt result in death. The idea that anything that causes death should be stopped via government decree is ridiculous, and I think pretty much everyone agrees. Thus, the framing of the issue of opening the economy as one between death and no death is a terrible way to frame the argument.

The difference is that waiting a few extra weeks could potentially eliminate almost all deaths from Covid. On the other hand, there is no reasonable way to eliminate almost all deaths from opening roads. Viruses can be contained, and I think it is possible to get containment again.

 

[UncleTrvlingJim]

LLP p


I don't have a link, sorry. The Economist had a write up and a link to study by some Duke professors. Stanford is conducting a study on the West coast to get an how widespread the infection rate is there. The main problem is what it has always been - coming up with a denominator.

I think in the end the numbers are going to reflect what we already know - there are a lot more people who have been infected than the original numbers assumed.

It's a weird bug - IDK of too many flu strains that people have no idea they have had. So, while on one end of the spectrum it is deadly on the other end people are asymptomatic.

I think this is article you are referring to:

Why a study showing that covid-19 is everywhere is good news

If millions of people were infected weeks ago without dying, the virus must be less deadly than official data suggest

www.economist.com

It's an interesting theory, but it makes the assumption that the spike in ILI is mainly attributable to COVID-19. While that would be good news in one case, it's also not super great in that if it is truly that contagious, then you're probably looking at a much higher infection rate in the US... let's say 60% of the US will contract it over the course of the next year. That would be 200,000 deaths all condensed into a very short timeframe. That's still pretty devastating (but not as bad as 1.7 million).

However, this also doesn't seem all that likely, b/c we have actual test data that shows that most people who take the test don't have the COVID-19. To date the US has tested over 3,000,000 people, and about 600,000 actually have the virus. This is the population of people who met criteria to have a test ordered. So, my guess is that is the rough percentage of undiagnosed ILI who have had undiagnosed COVID-19.

The spike in ILI is potentially attributable to people being worried and going to the doctor when in the past they'd just stay home to recover.

So, while it is possible that this is a very contagious but not very deadly disease, it does not seem that likely to me based on the above reasoning. What is the probability in your assessment that it is correct? Do you have enough information to make that determination? Should we act before we have that information?

 

[Beach Friends]

Oh my, I guess all the posters who made fun of my comment about Trump wanting his signature on the paper checks would cause a delay should apologize. I will wait here for you to eat your crow. Probably won’t happen.
Bottom of the article talks about how the IT people are having to scramble to get it added and it isn’t just a 10 second swipe of the card.
This delay will impact 70 million people.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coming-to-your-1200-relief-check-donald-j-trumps-name/2020/04/14/071016c2-7e82-11ea-8013-1b6da0e4a2b7_story.html%3foutputType=amp

LOL, I can think of several other things you deserve hearing before, "I'm sorry", that is based on a WaPo article.

 

[SystemShock]

Remember when I mentioned my significant other is having to reuse her PPE and their nurse techs are going without?

I believe you mentioned that a couple times, yes.

Yeah, that is because the healthcare system is not designed to maintain enormous excess capacity to deal with once in a century pandemics that spike specific and impossible to determine demand.

I am not saying anything about maintaining enormous excess capacity, but rather, the ability to create that capacity, which we have, we just refuse to do it.

And absent a vaccine, even an imperfect one, the system will collapse if left unchecked.

I am not saying the system should be left unchecked.

So using a relatively predictable and controlled disease with a known vaccine to make decisions about one without simply doesn’t work.

The transmission method of the one virus is virtually identical to the other. They both compromise the respiratory system.

 

[Beach Friends]

I think this is article you are referring to:

Why a study showing that covid-19 is everywhere is good news

If millions of people were infected weeks ago without dying, the virus must be less deadly than official data suggest

www.economist.com

It's an interesting theory, but it makes the assumption that the spike in ILI is mainly attributable to COVID-19. While that would be good news in one case, it's also not super great in that if it is truly that contagious, then you're probably looking at a much higher infection rate in the US... let's say 60% of the US will contract it over the course of the next year. That would be 200,000 deaths all condensed into a very short timeframe. That's still pretty devastating (but not as bad as 1.7 million).

However, this also doesn't seem all that likely, b/c we have actual test data that shows that most people who take the test don't have the COVID-19. To date the US has tested over 3,000,000 people, and about 600,000 actually have the virus. This is the population of people who met criteria to have a test ordered. So, my guess is that is the rough percentage of undiagnosed ILI who have had undiagnosed COVID-19.

The spike in ILI is potentially attributable to people being worried and going to the doctor when in the past they'd just stay home to recover.

So, while it is possible that this is a very contagious but not very deadly disease, it does not seem that likely to me based on the above reasoning. What is the probability in your assessment that it is correct? Do you have enough information to make that determination? Should we act before we have that information?

I'd say my probability that the early number of 3.4% is exaggerated is 92.77. Where does it end up? Much less.

Should we act before we have that information? Probably, we can't afford to ignore that poverty causes deaths too.

 

[Nebaghead]

LOL, I can think of several other things you deserve hearing before, "I'm sorry", that is based on a WaPo article.

What I expected. When it comes out from a half dozen other news sources I’m sure you will still keep your head in the sand.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

It’s fleeting, and devoid of context, but Flip isn’t wrong here. It has been reported the virus is likely more widespread than testing indicates because while no major country is as bad as America in terms of lack of testing with a major outbreak, but not everyone is at South Korea levels and able to capture the asymptomatic and low symptomatic. HOWEVER, postmortum testing is also very low, lots of cases of pneumonia and other late stage issues Covid related that are almost certainly Covid deaths but aren’t captured due to lack of testing and therefore not reported as Covid deaths.

Now if Flip has some study that actually provides results on both sides, the study might have some worthwhile value, but from looks of it it is only focusing on what is already known in terms of the virus being more widespread than tests indicate.

Beyond that it’s hard to have conversations with people evoking straw men(as you say no one is advocating a shelter in place for years) and not demonstrating even basic understanding or context of the virus, like continually comparing it to the flu or making blanket statements about the economy that literally almost no economists agree with and in defense of that stance provides nothing to support it. And who’s two arguments are directly in conflict with one another and doesnt even realize it.

Because if to make your argument that the disease isn’t as bad because of what amounts to a failure to test enough, it likewise means that simply opening the country back up all but guarantees a resurgence. As you just conceded that we don’t have the capacity to truly test and track. Something I also don’t see a reconciliation from.

Speaking directly to this point about the numbers cutting both ways...

NYC death toll jumps by 3,700 after uncounted fatalities are added

The city now has more than 10,000 deaths.

www.politico.com

Previously unaccounted for and untested fatalities raise the New York fatality rate by thousands.

Previously, the city had not counted people who died at home without getting tested for the coronavirus, or who died in nursing homes or at hospitals, but did not have a confirmed positive test result.

Tragic, sad, enraging, because all of this could have been drastically reduced with much better proactive early actions by the administration.

 

[not2rich]

Oh my, I guess all the posters who made fun of my comment about Trump wanting his signature on the paper checks would cause a delay should apologize. I will wait here for you to eat your crow. Probably won’t happen.
Bottom of the article talks about how the IT people are having to scramble to get it added and it isn’t just a 10 second swipe of the card.
This delay will impact 70 million people.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/coming-to-your-1200-relief-check-donald-j-trumps-name/2020/04/14/071016c2-7e82-11ea-8013-1b6da0e4a2b7_story.html%3foutputType=amp

At least Trump has the mental capacity to prioritize, right? We just need to work on the order of his priorities. Baby steps.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

I believe you mentioned that a couple times, yes.


I am not saying anything about maintaining enormous excess capacity, but rather, the ability to create that capacity, which we have, we just refuse to do it.


I am not saying the system should be left unchecked.


The transmission method of the one virus is virtually identical to the other. They both compromise the respiratory system.

I absolutely agree there was and is room and opportunity to do more, and the federal government, with the broadest and strongest power to do so, is failing to do so, but at this stage even a perfect response from this second on out won’t eliminate the need to maintain the current practices for some time. Because tests still have to be manufactured, a complex tracking system launched and staffed competently, and the currently scarce medical equipment needs to be manufactured correctly and distributed appropriately in order to help expand capacity to meet the needs of the pandemic.

And this virus could be completely indistinguishable from the flu, but the absence of a vaccine and the simple fact it is a highly contagious additional stressor on a system that is currently not equipped to handle the additional load means these actions must be taken and maintained to bend the curve until the above can be achieved.

How strong and diligently we adhere to them, and how the federal government manages this will determine how long, or how short, we must sustain it.

 

[Beach Friends]

So far, there has been one protest in Ohio over the lockdown, and protests are scheduled in MN and MI.

Probably inconsequential at the moment, but we are not going to be able to keep people locked up forever.