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President Trump's team has launched an early and aggressive behind-the-scenes effort to maintain the GOP's tenuous grip on the House in 2026 — and avoid his third impeachment.
Why it matters: Trump allies believe — with good reason — that a Democrat-controlled House would launch investigations of the president and move to impeach him. That's exactly what happened after Democrats seized the chamber during Trump's first term.
1. Trying to prevent retirements
The White House is targeting several Republicans in politically divided swing districts and urging them to not ditch their seats or run for higher office.
Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.
Besides Lawler, Trump has endorsed a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents in a series of moves aimed at shutting down would-be primary challengers before they get off the ground, people close to the president tell Axios.
Why it matters: Trump allies believe — with good reason — that a Democrat-controlled House would launch investigations of the president and move to impeach him. That's exactly what happened after Democrats seized the chamber during Trump's first term.
- Midterm elections are historically tough for the party occupying the White House, and senior Republicans privately acknowledge that retaining the speaker's gavel won't be easy.
- "Investigations, impeachment — he knows it's all on the table with a Speaker [Hakeem] Jeffries."
- Already, some Democrats have signaled they want to investigate Trump's overhaul of the U.S. government, whether he manipulated markets and fostered insider trading with his tariff announcements, and whether he's helped Elon Musk secure deals for Starlink.
- Then there's that $400 million jet from Qatar. Democrats and other critics say Trump violated the Constitution by accepting the gift.
1. Trying to prevent retirements
The White House is targeting several Republicans in politically divided swing districts and urging them to not ditch their seats or run for higher office.
- It has sent a clear message to New York Rep. Mike Lawler that Trump wants him to stay in the House rather than run for governor. This month Trump made a point of endorsing Lawler for re-election to his southern New York district, which Kamala Harris won in the presidential election last November.
- Trump's team also has expressed concern about Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga weighing a run for the Senate.
- Vacant seats also cost the party big bucks. Trump's allies have been passing around a spreadsheet with cost estimates to compete in the seats of 16 members if they depart. Among the estimated price tags: As much as $14 million for Lawler's seat and $3.7 million for Huizenga's.
- Michigan Rep. John James opted to run for governor. Trump is worried about the GOP's chances of keeping James' seat on the state's eastern shore, according to a person familiar with the president's thinking.
- The White House also is worried about retaining the central Kentucky seat held by Rep. Andy Barr, who's running for Senate. Trump won Barr's district by 15 points in November, but Democrats hold an edge in registered voters there.
Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.
- Securing American Greatness, a pro-Trump group that works with the White House, has launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign touting his economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans.
- The commercials also are airing in 13 districts where Trump won in November, but House GOP candidates lost
- Trump also has a leadership PAC, Never Surrender, planning to give directly to Republican candidates.
Besides Lawler, Trump has endorsed a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents in a series of moves aimed at shutting down would-be primary challengers before they get off the ground, people close to the president tell Axios.
- Top Republicans are worried that competitive primaries could drain the party's resources and weaken lawmakers in next year's general election.
- Trump proposed endorsing vulnerable Republicans early to ward off primary challenges and Johnson agreed, according to a person familiar with the discussion.
- Corry Bliss, who formerly led a pro-House GOP super PAC, said Trump's popularity among Republican voters is likely to stop many potential primary challengers in their tracks............
