2026 Midterms (2 Viewers)

[Optimus Prime]

President Trump's team has launched an early and aggressive behind-the-scenes effort to maintain the GOP's tenuous grip on the House in 2026 — and avoid his third impeachment.

Why it matters: Trump allies believe — with good reason — that a Democrat-controlled House would launch investigations of the president and move to impeach him. That's exactly what happened after Democrats seized the chamber during Trump's first term.

• Midterm elections are historically tough for the party occupying the White House, and senior Republicans privately acknowledge that retaining the speaker's gavel won't be easy.

The twice-impeached Trump "knows the stakes firsthand. He saw what can happen. It's clear he doesn't want that again," said Matt Gorman, a top official for House Republicans' campaign arm in the 2018 midterms.

• "Investigations, impeachment — he knows it's all on the table with a Speaker [Hakeem] Jeffries."
• Already, some Democrats have signaled they want to investigate Trump's overhaul of the U.S. government, whether he manipulated markets and fostered insider trading with his tariff announcements, and whether he's helped Elon Musk secure deals for Starlink.
• Then there's that $400 million jet from Qatar. Democrats and other critics say Trump violated the Constitution by accepting the gift.

Zoom in: Here are five steps Trump's taking to try to keep Republican control of the House, where the GOP has an eight-seat majority — including vacancies created this year by the deaths of three Democrats.

1. Trying to prevent retirements

The White House is targeting several Republicans in politically divided swing districts and urging them to not ditch their seats or run for higher office.

• It has sent a clear message to New York Rep. Mike Lawler that Trump wants him to stay in the House rather than run for governor. This month Trump made a point of endorsing Lawler for re-election to his southern New York district, which Kamala Harris won in the presidential election last November.
• Trump's team also has expressed concern about Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga weighing a run for the Senate.

Incumbent lawmakers with established fundraising and campaigning networks are almost always better positioned to win than any challengers.

• Vacant seats also cost the party big bucks. Trump's allies have been passing around a spreadsheet with cost estimates to compete in the seats of 16 members if they depart. Among the estimated price tags: As much as $14 million for Lawler's seat and $3.7 million for Huizenga's.

Trump's team hasn't been totally successful in dissuading ambitious lawmakers from jumping ship.

• Michigan Rep. John James opted to run for governor. Trump is worried about the GOP's chances of keeping James' seat on the state's eastern shore, according to a person familiar with the president's thinking.
• The White House also is worried about retaining the central Kentucky seat held by Rep. Andy Barr, who's running for Senate. Trump won Barr's district by 15 points in November, but Democrats hold an edge in registered voters there.

2. Spending big

Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.

• Securing American Greatness, a pro-Trump group that works with the White House, has launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign touting his economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans.
• The commercials also are airing in 13 districts where Trump won in November, but House GOP candidates lost

• Trump also has a leadership PAC, Never Surrender, planning to give directly to Republican candidates.

3. Taking primary challengers off the table

Besides Lawler, Trump has endorsed a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents in a series of moves aimed at shutting down would-be primary challengers before they get off the ground, people close to the president tell Axios.

• Top Republicans are worried that competitive primaries could drain the party's resources and weaken lawmakers in next year's general election.

The endorsements by Trump followed a recent meeting involving the president, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) chair Richard Hudson, and Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, a former Trump aide.

• Trump proposed endorsing vulnerable Republicans early to ward off primary challenges and Johnson agreed, according to a person familiar with the discussion.
• Corry Bliss, who formerly led a pro-House GOP super PAC, said Trump's popularity among Republican voters is likely to stop many potential primary challengers in their tracks............

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/27/trump-5-steps-gop-house-2026

 

[MT15]

Maybe sometime chuck can weigh in. From what I am reading there really isn’t any mechanism for Trump to change anything about the elections and this executive order wouldn’t change that. It would be sort of like his executive order “ending” birthright citizenship.

Is that correct?

 

[faceman]

Maybe sometime chuck can weigh in. From what I am reading there really isn’t any mechanism for Trump to change anything about the elections and this executive order wouldn’t change that. It would be sort of like his executive order “ending” birthright citizenship.

Is that correct?

The President’s Executive Order on Elections

The illegal order risks preventing millions of eligible American citizens from voting.

www.brennancenter.org

Is the executive order legal?​

No, the order is a clear violation of federal law and the Constitution. The president does not have the power to unilaterally rewrite election laws. Only states and Congress may set the rules for federal elections. The U.S. Constitution’s Elections Clause says that the rules for running federal elections “shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof” except that “Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations.” The president has no role in this constitutional scheme (beyond signing or vetoing federal legislation). On those grounds alone, the order is almost certainly doomed to fail in court.

 

[efil4]

 

[Optimus Prime]

Republicans in Texas, and nationwide, are looking to boost Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) in the closing days of the state’s Democratic Senate primary.

GOP spending on the race, which includes television ads and text messaging mobilization, underscores Republicans’ hope that Crockett, a congresswoman from Dallas, defeats Texas state Rep. James Talarico in the primary Tuesday. Some Republican operatives and leaders believe Crockett would be easier to defeat in November.

“I think Talarico is dangerous,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is locked in a high-stakes Senate primary of his own against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, said last month. “He’ll probably beat Jasmine Crockett, and he’s capable of raising a lot of money. And if you look at the head-to-head with Paxton, it’s tied.”

A group with ties to longtime Republican operatives has been sending text messages to voters in recent days that tout Crockett’s opposition to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, an issue that polling shows motivates the Democratic base. One Texan who regularly votes in Democratic primaries received the text messages, according to operatives working on the Texas races.

“What does Jasmine Crockett think of ICE,” one text reads, followed by quotes from the lawmaker: “Rogue organization,” “Violating people’s rights every single day” and “Killing people in the middle of the street.”

“Crockett is ICE’s worst nightmare, and she VOWED to ‘clean house.’ It’s no wonder she’s under attack,” concludes the text.

Another text message features an image of Crockett, with large text reading, “Refuses to Continue Funding ICE.”

The texts provide voters with a link to Crockett’s answer on ICE from a January Senate primary debate, in which the congresswoman defended voting against funding the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE. “There was no way I was going to continue to pump a historic amount of money into this rogue organization,” she said. She did not directly answer whether she supports defunding ICE, but said, “Right now, I think that we need to clean house from top to bottom.”

Both texts say they are paid for by American Sovereignty, a conservative group whose website says it aims to work with policymakers who put “America First,” borrowing a slogan popularized by President Donald Trump. “We are committed to securing our borders and making communities safe in order to protect American values,” the website reads..............

Republicans are boosting Jasmine Crockett ahead of critical Senate primary​

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/27/republicans-are-boosting-jasmine-crockett-ahead-critical-senate-primary/

 

[MT15]

This is interesting,Optimus. If that guy I read today is correct, that the problem with Dems in the public’s mind is that they seem weak, not anything related to policy…Crockett would be the stronger candidate, IMO. And reading what dems in TX have to say - the isn’t any significant policy difference between Talarico and Crockett - but that Crockett is viewed as a “fighter”. Someone willing to go to bat for her ideas while Talarico is viewed as more compromising. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[faceman]

This is interesting,Optimus. If that guy I read today is correct, that the problem with Dems in the public’s mind is that they seem weak, not anything related to policy…Crockett would be the stronger candidate, IMO. And reading what dems in TX have to say - the isn’t any significant policy difference between Talarico and Crockett - but that Crockett is viewed as a “fighter”. Someone willing to go to bat for her ideas while Talarico is viewed as more compromising. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

I believe Talarico can pull more moderates,independents,christians, and republicans fed up with Trump. I love Jasmine,but
I don't think Texas is ready to support a combative woman for Senator yet. I just want this seat to flip blue.

 

[MT15]

I believe Talarico can pull more moderates,independents,christians, and republicans fed up with Trump. I love Jasmine,but
I don't think Texas is ready to support a combative woman for Senator yet. I just want this seat to flip blue.

Me too. I was solidly with you until I read that analysis of the sentiment of the voters (all voters, not just Dems). They want someone who will fight for their priorities, according to his research. So it just might be that someone like Crockett will have that as an advantage over Talarico. Crockett is also pretty religious, I believe. I guess we will find out.

My point was that the GOP assuming Crockett is the weaker candidate might bite them in the butt.

 

[Incumbent]

I believe Talarico can pull more moderates,independents,christians, and republicans fed up with Trump. I love Jasmine,but
I don't think Texas is ready to support a combative woman for Senator yet. I just want this seat to flip blue.

I agree but also it’s important to acknowledge that Talarico is unapologetically progressive and I like that he recognizes our current conditions go way beyond Trump. He is running on a message that the real fight is between the working class and billionaires. He’s been very outspoken about Texas billionaires (and preachers), Farris Wilks and Tim Dunn, and the dangerous and destructive force they have become in statewide politics.

I think there is a lot of misrepresentation of Talarico on social media and particularly, what looks like an astroturf campaign that is spreading unfounded fear he’s “another Fetterman”. I’m seeing this lately on BlueSky. Anybody who has followed him at all finds this absurd. Then there was the hit job carried out by Colin Allred, via an influencer (eyeroll) that framed Talarico as a racist through an ugly misrepresentation of comments he made to this influencer. Again, anybody who has followed him knows that is completely inconsistent with who he has consistently shown himself to be.

It’s often not easy to get excited about politicians but I think Talarico is the kind of candidate the Left longs for in a state like Texas. And personally, I find it very refreshing that he represents Christianity in a way that is far more aligned with the teachings of Christ. I’ve attended the church he goes to, and where he has participated as a substitute pastor, and while I’m no longer a church goer, I can confidently say they are the most authentically compassionate and socially devoted congregation I’ve been a part of. (This is the church I’ve mentioned in previous posts here and SR. They do some truly amazing work in the community.)

 

[Incumbent]

Here’s a gift article for anybody interested in the Democratic race for the Texas senate seat, depicting the contrasting styles of the two candidates.

Why I Got Thrown Out of a Jasmine Crockett Rally

The crowd was fired up. The candidate was on her game. And I was escorted out by armed guards.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[J-DONK]

The polling for the dem primary is insane. The last two polls have shown +12 for each candidate.

2026 Texas Senate - Democratic Primary | RealClearPolling

2026 Texas Senate - Democratic Primary | RealClearPolling

www.realclearpolling.com

 

[MT15]

Polling is just not very accurate anymore. It’s been kneecapped by cell phones, and it still doesn’t seem to know what to do about them for sure.

 

[J-DONK]

Polling is just not very accurate anymore. It’s been kneecapped by cell phones, and it still doesn’t seem to know what to do about them for sure.

I think robodial scammers burned it to the ground. I don't answer my phone unless I know the person.

 

[faceman]

Me too. I was solidly with you until I read that analysis of the sentiment of the voters (all voters, not just Dems). They want someone who will fight for their priorities, according to his research. So it just might be that someone like Crockett will have that as an advantage over Talarico. Crockett is also pretty religious, I believe. I guess we will find out.

My point was that the GOP assuming Crockett is the weaker candidate might bite them in the butt.

I hope I'm wrong,but I'll stand by my belief on misogamy until proven wrong. Trump beat two women
and lost to a white man. I'm afraid Crockett would be the same as Harris. If It takes a straight white
man to break the Texas stronghold so be it.

Keep in mind the types of voters we have to overcome. Some will vote against Crockett just because
she's a Black woman.

 

[MT15]

I hope I'm wrong,but I'll stand by my belief on misogamy until proven wrong. Trump beat two women
and lost to a white man. I'm afraid Crockett would be the same as Harris. If It takes a straight white
man to break the Texas stronghold so be it.

Keep in mind the types of voters we have to overcome. Some will vote against Crockett just because
she's a Black woman.

Yeah I know. And there is virtually no difference between them policy-wise. As long as they unite behind whichever one wins, I think there’s a decent chance - especially if Paxton ends up being the nominee. I won’t be upset with either one.

 

[Maxp]

Yeah I know. And there is virtually no difference between them policy-wise. As long as they unite behind whichever one wins, I think there’s a decent chance - especially if Paxton ends up being the nominee. I won’t be upset with either one.

Texas will not vote for a black woman for US Senate. Texas is the most racist, backwards state in the union. I hear hatred spewed towards Crockett at work constantly. It doesn't matter how smart or qualified she is, there is ZERO chance of her winning.

 

[faceman]

Texas will not vote for a black woman for US Senate. Texas is the most racist, backwards state in the union. I hear hatred spewed towards Crockett at work constantly. It doesn't matter how smart or qualified she is, there is ZERO chance of her winning.

This writer agrees.

Inside James Talarico's Bid to Flip Texas

Talarico is in a fierce primary for Senate against Jasmine Crockett. He spoke to TIME between campaign stops in an area Trump won by 40 points

time.com

The prospect of a Talarico nomination has Republicans in Washington worried. One GOP lawmaker keeping a close eye on the midterm map summed up his view in five words: “She can’t win. He can.”

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

This is interesting,Optimus. If that guy I read today is correct, that the problem with Dems in the public’s mind is that they seem weak, not anything related to policy…Crockett would be the stronger candidate, IMO. And reading what dems in TX have to say - the isn’t any significant policy difference between Talarico and Crockett - but that Crockett is viewed as a “fighter”. Someone willing to go to bat for her ideas while Talarico is viewed as more compromising. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Crockett being both a woman and black would be a huge hurdle for her to overcome. The only thing I'm pulling for is that the Dem who wins the primary wins the general. It would be sweet as all get out if the racist and misogynistic Republicans helped Crockett win the primary and then she kicked the racist and misogynistic Republican's arse in the general.

I'd also love to see her do a campaign spot that alluded to Davy Crockett at the Alamo.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

I agree but also it’s important to acknowledge that Talarico is unapologetically progressive and I like that he recognizes our current conditions go way beyond Trump. He is running on a message that the real fight is between the working class and billionaires. He’s been very outspoken about Texas billionaires (and preachers), Farris Wilks and Tim Dunn, and the dangerous and destructive force they have become in statewide politics.

I think there is a lot of misrepresentation of Talarico on social media and particularly, what looks like an astroturf campaign that is spreading unfounded fear he’s “another Fetterman”. I’m seeing this lately on BlueSky. Anybody who has followed him at all finds this absurd. Then there was the hit job carried out by Colin Allred, via an influencer (eyeroll) that framed Talarico as a racist through an ugly misrepresentation of comments he made to this influencer. Again, anybody who has followed him knows that is completely inconsistent with who he has consistently shown himself to be.

It’s often not easy to get excited about politicians but I think Talarico is the kind of candidate the Left longs for in a state like Texas. And personally, I find it very refreshing that he represents Christianity in a way that is far more aligned with the teachings of Christ. I’ve attended the church he goes to, and where he has participated as a substitute pastor, and while I’m no longer a church goer, I can confidently say they are the most authentically compassionate and socially devoted congregation I’ve been a part of. (This is the church I’ve mentioned in previous posts here and SR. They do some truly amazing work in the community.)

I think both Talarico and Crockett are mostly sincere, so I'm confident who ever loses the Democratic primary will go all in on supporting the candidate who wins it. I think that's going to be really important if Crockett wins the primary.