100 Marines to Baghdad (Iran conflict discussion)(Reopened & Merged) (2 Viewers)

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    We’re gonna try to stay on point in this one -🤞 .

    After the Iranian admission of shooting down the Ukrainian 737, which was carrying 82 Iranian passengers, protests against the Supreme Leader have broken out.

    The UK ambassador to Iran has been arrested for talking photos of the protests. President Trump has tweeted support for the protesters in English and Farsi.


     
    N.O.Bronco said:
    The more important question to me is what cycle led to the protests? And even more importantly, what has to happen to break it?

    To me, compartmentalizing or looking at this in isolation and not recognizing the larger machinations at work is a recipe for simply blindly waking head first into an ever escalating tit for tat that could easily push us into protracted conflict and open war. And increasingly it seems like Trump is playing right into that mindset.

    We unilaterally and without cause abandoned the Iran nuclear deal, ramped up rhetoric and sanctions and began crippling the Iranian people and their economic output in the hopes it would topple the regime or force them to crawl to the negotiating table. It did not. As a response, likely with the encouragement of Iranian proxies, protests and rockets were fired at US embassies. Killing one American and some allies. Our response eventually was a bombing attack that killed 25 people. There response was another protest that did not result in any deaths. Our response has been to assassinate their senior military commander. Now Iranians are vowing revenge and it definitely seems like we have escalated to a point that I do not know clearly how we get out?

    If Iran retaliates, which they seem likely to do, it seems even more likely that in wanting to avoid looking weak going into an election, Trump will simply escalate further as well.
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    Yeah, but all of what you said just furthers the point I was making. This isnt a ploy to wag the dog. It is a tit for tat escalation that has been going on. I just wanted to confirm Iran had responsibility for this. Those basic facts get lost in the sea of information.

    Clearly we have been on this path since we got out of the nuclear deal and Bolton was involved.

    I think we can all agree that Trump is just the kind of guy who will always counter punch. I dont think there is a lot more to his calculus.
     
    With all of the mourners in Baghdad how can our troops trust the Iraq troops that are right beside them?
     
    We will soon see how much support Iran has in Iraq. Obviously, the most "vulnerable" American targets are the troops stationed in Iraq.
    But, Iranian dominance of Iraq is clearly nowhere near what it once was. Before this embassy "protest" the stories coming out of Iraq were of the Shia turning on the government - a government handpicked by Iran.
    If the protests are a sign of a rising Iraqi nationalism then it is one more sign that Iran is running out of options.
     
    wardorican said:
    Yeah, but all of what you said just furthers the point I was making. This isnt a ploy to wag the dog. It is a tit for tat escalation that has been going on. I just wanted to confirm Iran had responsibility for this. Those basic facts get lost in the sea of information.

    Clearly we have been on this path since we got out of the nuclear deal and Bolton was involved.

    I think we can all agree that Trump is just the kind of guy who will always counter punch. I dont think there is a lot more to his calculus.
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    Yeah and he clearly is not someone that is too heavy on using, well, any of his brain to maneuver this incredibly dangerous balancing act:



    Like North Korea, it seems like we are once again reliant upon our adversaries acting more rationally than our leader seems capable of. It continues to set back our foreign policy and geopolitical standing, but if we can get out of all this with only that, well, I’ll call that a success.

    Just worrying how much long term damage this is gonna cause? Because if I am any adversary looking toward making a diplomatic deal in the future, or choosing between proliferation or not, I can no longer see many countries having a willingness to trust America as an honest broker or someone willing to uphold their word. As I am sure if they could do it again, Libya and Iran would have just gone ahead developed their nukes.
     
    Washington Post said:
    But now Iraqi Shiites, fed up with poverty, angered by corruption and frustrated by their sacrifices, are battling the system they helped build.

    Anti-government demonstrators have seized squares and bridges, blocked roads and burned or ransacked government buildings including diplomatic missions belonging to Shiite power broker Iran, which has close ties to Iraq’s leadership.
    Click to expand...

    Perhaps part of the motivation of Iran in storming the embassy was to deflect fro the growing anti-Iranian sentiment and rise of Iraqi nationalism within the Shia population.

    Washington Post said:
    Last month, protesters in Karbala stormed the local Iranian Consulate, a large, fortresslike building with high walls and concrete barriers, and hoisted the Iraqi flag.
    Farther south, in Najaf, the center of Shiite learning and home to the shrine of Imam Ali, demonstrators torched the Iranian Consulate last month, chanting “Iran, out, out!” as they ransacked the building.
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    This article came out before the U.S. embassy attack.
     
    JimEverett said:
    Perhaps part of the motivation of Iran in storming the embassy was to deflect fro the growing anti-Iranian sentiment and rise of Iraqi nationalism within the Shia population.



    This article came out before the U.S. embassy attack.
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    It’s doubtful there aren’t multiple motivating factors in much of what Iran does.

    There has certainly been some erosion and the protests and the recent election speak to that. However, it is important to remember Iraq is much closer to an Iran client state than not. Despite some recent upheaval.

    www.nytimes.com

    The Iran Cables: Secret Documents Show How Tehran Wields Power in Iraq (Published 2019)

    Hundreds of leaked intelligence reports shed light on a shadow war for regional influence — and the battles within the Islamic Republic’s own spy divisions
    www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

    As the 700 pages of leaked cables The Intercept and the Times got demonstrate, Iran’s hold is broad and deep. Iraq is not just reliant on Iranian security forces and financial aide, it has it’s hands all over the government and still controls many of the most dominant parties in the country. And as the cables show, even if their dominant parties lose election, they have so many politicians in their pocket that little changes strategically for them.

    And, unfortunately, it is hard to see this recent escalation by Trump doing anything except strengthening that reliance, raising questions to many that were worried about Iranian influence if they really like the alternatives anymore, clearly emboldening the parliament to kick us out. And as the cables also paint a picture of, these sorts of image damaging moments America engages in in Iraq are what Iran has thrived on and used to facilitate their grip. We fail to do right by Iraq and Iran seizes the opportunity.
     
    wardorican said:
    You know, it is ok to admit when you made a mistake. A lot of us do it.
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    Not trying to be stubborn there Ward... But I knew the story was from Iraq and not Iran when I posted it. Perhaps my mistake was not clarifying that distinction when I posted the story. I'll make sure to do that from now on...
     
    Saintamaniac said:
    WE can end this crisis with Iran completely. Democrats win the election in November and then hand trump over to the Iranians.
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    I want to make sure I have this right, You are perfectly ok with the US turning over Citizens or even political rivals over to other Countries?
     
    MT15 said:
    How do you know she thinks he was a good man? It’s an anti-war protest, from the looks of it, but how do you know her thoughts on him?
    Click to expand...

    The level of intellectual dishonesty in this statement is laughable, hence my lol reaction to your post.

    Look at that image she is clutching. Such a sullen pose.. Persian General? Draped in his country's flags in the imagery.
     
    Intensesaint said:
    The level of intellectual dishonesty in this statement is laughable, hence my lol reaction to your post.

    Look at that image she is clutching. Such a sullen pose.. Persian General? Draped in his country's flags in the imagery.
    Click to expand...
    Are you as equally enraged when you see people holding swastika flags at right wing protests?
     
    Intense, you don’t know anything about her, or the reason she is holding that photo, thanks for admitting that.

    I would appreciate not being called dishonest, however. It’s the second time in so many days a conservative poster has dome this sort of thing to me, it’s against the TOS. I don’t normally report posts, even if I think they deserve it, but this sort of thing is stifling of discussion.

    Now, she could be disgusted by the image she is holding, or not. But her face doesn’t look “sullen” to me. You are jumping to the conclusion you want to see.

    You could be correct, but you could also be dead wrong. You are letting your own biases color what you see.
     

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