100 Marines to Baghdad (Iran conflict discussion)(Reopened & Merged) (1 Viewer)

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    We’re gonna try to stay on point in this one -🤞 .

    After the Iranian admission of shooting down the Ukrainian 737, which was carrying 82 Iranian passengers, protests against the Supreme Leader have broken out.

    The UK ambassador to Iran has been arrested for talking photos of the protests. President Trump has tweeted support for the protesters in English and Farsi.


     
    superchuck500 said:
    This appears to be legit. US forces "repositioning" out of Iraq. I think the play here is "okay Iraq, be careful what you wish for!" - but is it the right strategic move?





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    Someone will fill that vacuum and it likely won't be beneficial to the US.
     
    Beach Friends said:
    I just can't believe President Trump was dining on meatloaf and ice cream when the strike was confirmed. Many thanks to the media for bringing this to light for the American public. And they say journalism is dead.
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    I saw that too. Who eats ice cream with meatloaf? :) 24 hour news cycle has destroyed journalism.
     
    Beach Friends said:
    I just can't believe President Trump was dining on meatloaf and ice cream when the strike was confirmed. Many thanks to the media for bringing this to light for the American public. And they say journalism is dead.
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    Just be sure and post a link from the National Beef Society or Betty Crocker or people around here gonna accuse you of just making shirt up.... We conservatives need DAT street cred.
     
    I'm curious how all of you Trump supporters think this will end with Iran? Do y'all actually believe these attacks and what has developed in the form of this maximum pressure campaign are going to actually make Iran bend the knee and come in to compliance with American expectations?

    Do you think we end up at war with Iran and is that okay with you? Do you think we're going to force them into isolation with the support of the rest of the world? If not any of that, then what is going to happen? Are you just happy for now that we're targeting and taking out their military leaders and don't care about the fall out?
     
    superchuck500 said:
    I agree that Trump does have an Iran policy and it is coherent - it is based on economic and other pressure to bring capitulation (i.e. coming to the negotiation table from a position of extreme weakness). Trump doesn't actually want hot war, nor do I think that Iran is trying to bait the US into a hot war. But it's also true that Trump's resistance to hot conflict can be used against him - and the desire to prevent this may bring about that very result.

    It bears mentioning that Iranian oil isn't off the market. The US sanctions have hurt Iran deeply, for sure - but Iran is still selling oil. Mainly to China . . . though there are signs that the Chinese are tapering their Iran oil-buys. But Iranian exports have gone from a peak of 2.5M bpd to around 400K or 500K depending on estimates. The most recent Iranian budget was based on 500K to 1M bpd.

    www.nytimes.com

    Defying U.S. Sanctions, China and Others Take Oil From 12 Iranian Tankers (Published 2019)

    The U.S. has been unable to halt Iranian oil exports.
    www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

    www.reuters.com

    Iran outlines budget to resist U.S. sanctions as oil exports plunge

    Iran's president presented a draft state budget of about $39 billion to parliament on Sunday, saying it was designed to resist U.S. sanctions by limiting dependence on oil exports.
    www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

    www.forbes.com

    China Wants To Save Iran Nuclear Deal As It Leaves Their Oil Market Behind

    China criticized Trump for killing Kassam Soleimani, Iran's top military general. But it has one thing in common with Washington that is key to Beijing's support.
    www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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    China was buying Iranian oil at a deep discount but, as one of the articles you posted elucidates, the Chinese are switching to Saudi oil as Iran is deemed unreliable as a supplier now.

    China isn't going to jeopardize their supply of oil by supporting Iran.
     
    Somehow Trump’s supporters will give him credit for ending our occupation of Iraq because he got us kicked out.
     
    coldseat said:
    I'm curious how all of you Trump supporters think this will end with Iran? Do y'all actually believe these attacks and what has developed in the form of this maximum pressure campaign are going to actually make Iran bend the knee and come in to compliance with American expectations?

    Do you think we end up at war with Iran and is that okay with you? Do you think we're going to force them into isolation with the support of the rest of the world? If not any of that, then what is going to happen? Are you just happy for now that we're targeting and taking out their military leaders and don't care about the fall out?
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    It all depends on how long Trump is in office and what his successor does.

    Trump's "attacks" have been reactive, which works in his favor. He has been restrained but has certainly thrown Iran a serious curve ball by targeting Soleimani.

    Europe has not shown willingness to violate sanctions and probably will have no reason to in future if the Straits of Hormuz are open to navigation.

    Russia benefits from Iran's oil being off the market and China is showing every sign of playing along in order to maintain access to ME oil.

    US oil production is up and continues to increase which decreases the relevance of ME oil for everyone.

    If the US re-elects Trump and his successor is willing to stay the course, I think Iran will undergo an internal revolution. If not, we are likely to see a return to the bad policy of the past and a resurgent Iran.

    Iran has been at war with the United States since the overthrow of the Shah. I don't think the character of that war is going to change significantly in the short term. Obviously, Iran knows provoking a US ground invasion would be suicidal.

    The frequency of Iranian proxy attacks will increase the closer we get to the election.

    Iran has to carefully avoid doing anything that gets world opinion solidly against them. However, they have a huge opportunity at the moment because of the political situation here in the United States. I would assume they are taking careful note of the reaction to the Soleimani strike and are planning to make hay while the sun shines.
     
    JimEverett said:
    Who was it sent to? The Iraqi's?
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    It looks like the General acknowledges sending it, but now says it was a mistake.

    I think it’s just a symptom of an erratic executive branch.
     
    samiam5211 said:
    It looks like the General acknowledges sending it, but now says it was a mistake.

    I think it’s just a symptom of an erratic executive branch.
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    If sent to the Iraqi government, that seems like a very serious slip-up. If sent just to the press, then it is just run-of-the-mill mistake.
     

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