The trade and economy mega-thread (3 Viewers)

You know the cost of borrowing will go up. And there are reports that what these moronscdid to the irs cost us $500 billions in lost revenue. This damage will take years to recover if we survive. 11 weeks worth of damage. Damn Americans are dumb.

UriUT said:

You know the cost of borrowing will go up. And there are reports that what these moronscdid to the irs cost us $500 billions in lost revenue. This damage will take years to recover if we survive. 11 weeks worth of damage. Damn Americans are dumb.

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Dimon fully expects defaults to climb here

efil4 said:

Dimon fully expects defaults to climb here

https://www.reuters.com/markets/jpmorgan-ceo-dimon-expects-recession-defaults-urges-quick-progress-trade-talks-2025-04-09/

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For the us government too if bond sell off continues. These Maga are doing more harm.

UriUT said:

For the us government too if bond sell off continues. These Maga are doing more harm.

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the 30 yr spiked overnight as well



MAGAs have absolutely no idea what they are doing. But more importantly, have absolutely no idea how to UNDO.

I would expect Trump to rant about Fed/Powell at some point today or tomorrow.

efil4 said:

the 30 yr spiked overnight as well



MAGAs have absolutely no idea what they are doing. But more importantly, have absolutely no idea how to UNDO.

I would expect Trump to rant about Fed/Powell at some point today or tomorrow.

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I can't wait when Powell has to step down and is replaced with an idiot know nothing!

Saw in the local nola news that folks are complaining about mail deliveries now. Before mail will arrive timely but at a cost (looking at you rural folks for bringing costs up). Now it's not even coming. Crawfish (edit...need a new spell checker...come on crayfish...?) spoiled. Dejoy has done a number on the post office's efficiency...and we can't get rid of him.

UriUT said:

I can't wait when Powell has to step down and is replaced with an idiot know nothing!

Saw in the local nola news that folks are complaining about mail deliveries now. Before mail will arrive timely but at a cost (looking at you rural folks for bringing costs up). Now it's not even coming. Crawfish (edit...need a new spell checker...come on crayfish...?) spoiled. Dejoy has done a number on the post office's efficiency...and we can't get rid of him.

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to be fair- mail has been an issue for a long time.

A client mailed me a check on 3/20. ( From Destrehan ) - they received back yesterday with no explanation as to why - address/stamp - all correct. My clients no longer mail me checks- we do ach now. But this has been an issue for over 5 years that has gotten worse over time.

I would get mail from clients in Covington before i got mail from clients in New Orleans ( our main office in Metairie )

Optimus Prime said:

Thanks for this

Do you have a rough idea of what that would do to the price of a product?

If a widget made overseas is sold in the USA to the consumer for $100 and with tariffs would go up to say $120

If this factory was built here what do you think the same widget but made here by American workers would cost?

$200? $300? more than that?

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I'm sure coolbrees may give more precise numbers.

Prices will definitely go up. There is a reason why that widget wasn't produced domestically...cant compete due to higher costs and inefficiencies. Let's suppose we do already have a factory for that widget. We placed protectionist policies to protect that widget market by increasing the price of imported widgets equal or higher to domestic widgets. Prices are up. And if the domestic producer feels like they want bigger margins, they may increase their prices because they were selling x amount before when competing against much lower prices so raising prices and still selling x amount is a win. And if they expand it ll cost them...more investment, more costs passed down. That's why economists view subsidies and tariffs as inefficient. You better have a good reason for the protection policies.

The stupidity here is that trump applied it across the board. We don't have labor to make everything. And as pointed out, we physically can't in some sector. With immigration locked down, labor has to shift because we are currently fully employed. The shift will increase wages because of a higher demand for labor....causing further price increases. Pure stupidity. Absolute morons.

well least we see green for a bit today at open

efil4 said:

to be fair- mail has been an issue for a long time.

A client mailed me a check on 3/20. ( From Destrehan ) - they received back yesterday with no explanation as to why - address/stamp - all correct. My clients no longer mail me checks- we do ach now. But this has been an issue for over 5 years that has gotten worse over time.

I would get mail from clients in Covington before i got mail from clients in New Orleans ( our main office in Metairie )

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I write one check a month and that's to my power company. It's been lost in the mail 3 times the last year. They
have a small office i pass by on the way to work. It'll cost me no time to just stop and pay them there.

faceman said:

I write one check a month and that's to my power company. It's been lost in the mail 3 times the last year. They
have a small office i pass by on the way to work. It'll cost me no time to just stop and pay them there.

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It wasn't like this before dejoy right? I don't remember it being rampant and reports were never about systemically lost mail. It was always about the cost and the inability to raise stamp prices. Dejoy removed every auto sorting machines. That was 2020.

UriUT said:

It wasn't like this before dejoy right? I don't remember it being rampant and reports were never about systemically lost mail. It was always about the cost and the inability to raise stamp prices. Dejoy removed every auto sorting machines. That was 2020.

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it started early in 2024. That was the first one. The second in the summer. The last one was Dec. 24

efil4 said:

the 30 yr spiked overnight as well



MAGAs have absolutely no idea what they are doing. But more importantly, have absolutely no idea how to UNDO.

I would expect Trump to rant about Fed/Powell at some point today or tomorrow.

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Market fully expects Powell to make a move today

efil4 said:

MAGAs have absolutely no idea what they are doing. But more importantly, have absolutely no idea how to UNDO.

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Yeah, I think that's the question now.

It's kind of impressive that it's such a stupid approach, it somehow keeps getting more stupid the more you think about it. Demanding no trade deficit with any single nation is essentially trying to create 1:1 barter-based trade with every nation - we'll trade each other equivalent amounts of goods and services - in the 21st century.

But the one way it could 'work' (in the sense of a positive outcome for the ones doing it, not in the sense of actually achieving the above, which, no), is if other nations offer concessions just to make the stupidity stop. So basically, "I'll punch myself and you in the face for spurious reasons until you offer me something to stop."

But if they can't get other nations to do that, they're just left punching themselves in the face. So then the question is, how do they stop without admitting that they're complete and total idiots. Get nothing and declare it victory is one option, but the more they insist that "trade deficit" = "other nation pillaging the US", etc., etc., the harder they make that for themselves.

Honestly, I feel psychologists are better placed to predict the outcomes than economists right now.

Found this on Democratic Underground. I wasn’t sure where to put it.

efil4 said:

Market fully expects Powell to make a move today

Federal Reserve to announce rate cut and liquidity injection at meeting later today | Cryptopolitan

The Federal Reserve is now under growing pressure to cut interest rates and pump cash into the financial system at its next scheduled meeting later today, as

www.cryptopolitan.com

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Is this like the rumor 2 days ago that tariffs were going to be paused?

RobF said:

Yeah, I think that's the question now.

It's kind of impressive that it's such a stupid approach, it somehow keeps getting more stupid the more you think about it. Demanding no trade deficit with any single nation is essentially trying to create 1:1 barter-based trade with every nation - we'll trade each other equivalent amounts of goods and services - in the 21st century.

But the one way it could 'work' (in the sense of a positive outcome for the ones doing it, not in the sense of actually achieving the above, which, no), is if other nations offer concessions just to make the stupidity stop. So basically, "I'll punch myself and you in the face for spurious reasons until you offer me something to stop."

But if they can't get other nations to do that, they're just left punching themselves in the face. So then the question is, how do they stop without admitting that they're complete and total idiots. Get nothing and declare it victory is one option, but the more they insist that "trade deficit" = "other nation pillaging the US", etc., etc., the harder they make that for themselves.

Honestly, I feel psychologists are better placed to predict the outcomes than economists right now.

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as i posted before- what the $@#$ are we asking Lesotho to do? Import more Chevrolet Suburbans? GMC Hummers?

Oh maybe they can spend $10B a year on Caterpillar excavators. Cool. Now the price of those diamonds we get from Lesotho will go to $10,000/karat.

We get diamonds from them so YEAH our trade deficit will be reflected in the fact that they pay those diamond mine workers $1.50US A DAY to dig out those diamonds for Mrs. Karen who wants to look at 100 separate diamonds before deciding.

it makes my head spin.

UncleTrvlingJim said:

Is this like the rumor 2 days ago that tariffs were going to be paused?

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i think so - i cant find any corroborating article that the Fed plans to cut rate today

efil4 said:

i think so - i cant find any corroborating article that the Fed plans to cut rate today

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It's wishful thinking right now that the fed would do an emergency rate cut. They still don't know the long term effects of this tariff insanity... if they stick we'll have slower growth (or negative growth) and higher inflation. And they'll need to decide what they'll tackle first.