Post-Election Results Analysis (4 Viewers)

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    superchuck500

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    The election data is always very interesting. Let's have a thread to discuss it so that it doesn't get washed away in the gameday thread.

    We always suspected that a portion of the Trump vote in 2016 will leave him based on overall distaste with his conduct as president. There appears to be some evidence of that emerging . . . here's some from Wisconsin.

     
    I do respect AOC, and think she has the a really good take here. But I can see why she rubs people the wrong way. She is very smart, but she bristles just a bit too much at criticism. Sometimes your critics have a point, even if you cannot agree with their positions.

    At the time “defund the police” came to be, a whole lot of people thought it was a bad slogan, easy for the other side to smear. And we had a very good discussion about it here. It didn’t accurately convey the complexity of what was being proposed. IMO.

    So, although the proposals are spot on, and desperately needed, those three words came to have a negative connotation to the politically naive and that was used by the opponents of needed reform to recast the issue.

    There is some evidence that the type of branding cost some democrats their seats. I would much rather AOC acknowledge that, and then go on to make her extremely good points, than her maintain that there was no issue with the way those proposals were branded. Just my two cents.
     
    I do respect AOC, and think she has the a really good take here. But I can see why she rubs people the wrong way. She is very smart, but she bristles just a bit too much at criticism. Sometimes your critics have a point, even if you cannot agree with their positions.

    At the time “defund the police” came to be, a whole lot of people thought it was a bad slogan, easy for the other side to smear. And we had a very good discussion about it here. It didn’t accurately convey the complexity of what was being proposed. IMO.

    So, although the proposals are spot on, and desperately needed, those three words came to have a negative connotation to the politically naive and that was used by the opponents of needed reform to recast the issue.

    There is some evidence that the type of branding cost some democrats their seats. I would much rather AOC acknowledge that, and then go on to make her extremely good points, than her maintain that there was no issue with the way those proposals were branded. Just my two cents.

    Very well said. I've always thought she is really smart and has some good ideas on governance and progressivism. But she can be really blunt and I think a bit too aggressive with those who disagree with her. Also, I do think she and the freshman or younger reps need to compromise a bit more, not just with the more senior leaders but also even across the aisle.

    That said, and I know she gets a lot of grief over this, but opposing Amazon setting up shop in her own district was a bad decision. I get that Amazon is a lightning rod for criticism, but looking out for her district should be her top role as rep. That's what she was elected to do imo.
     
    Very well said. I've always thought she is really smart and has some good ideas on governance and progressivism. But she can be really blunt and I think a bit too aggressive with those who disagree with her. Also, I do think she and the freshman or younger reps need to compromise a bit more, not just with the more senior leaders but also even across the aisle.

    That said, and I know she gets a lot of grief over this, but opposing Amazon setting up shop in her own district was a bad decision. I get that Amazon is a lightning rod for criticism, but looking out for her district should be her top role as rep. That's what she was elected to do imo.
    Just like the tango, it takes two to compromise. The other side of the aisle has to be willing to compromise with her too.

    She thinks she was looking out for her district by opposing Amazon. You disagree with her, but that doesn't mean she wasn't looking out for her district. There are a lot of legitimate reasons to oppose Amazon and a lot of valid analysis that shows Amazon has a net negative effect on an area.
     
    In the black community and amongst some of my FB friends I saw that Biden's support for the 1994 Crime bill is what turned them (5-10 out of 100 or so) off. It really pissed me off when they mentioned it because... we all were in middle/high school in New Orleans around that time when it was passed and saw some effects of the carnage that it was trying to stop first hand. Back then New Orleans was consistently the "Murder Capital of the World" with anywhere between 350-450 murders per year. Hell, I even pointed out to them that back then, our own damn mothers supported the crime bill and if New Orleans was seeing 350-450 murders per year today, they'd support some sort of crime bill.

    This new "woke" aspect of society keeps trying to judge the actions of 25-30 years ago through this newly formed BS hypersensitive moral code...and if anything done back then doesn't match what we believe now, we go all ape poop over it.


    Yeah and the thing I love is that is also the time that crack exploded everywhere.

    We can go down that rabbit hole and talk about who was the administration pumping cocaine into America to pay for wars in south america.
     
    In the black community and amongst some of my FB friends I saw that Biden's support for the 1994 Crime bill is what turned them (5-10 out of 100 or so) off. It really pissed me off when they mentioned it because... we all were in middle/high school in New Orleans around that time when it was passed and saw some effects of the carnage that it was trying to stop first hand. Back then New Orleans was consistently the "Murder Capital of the World" with anywhere between 350-450 murders per year. Hell, I even pointed out to them that back then, our own damn mothers supported the crime bill and if New Orleans was seeing 350-450 murders per year today, they'd support some sort of crime bill.

    This new "woke" aspect of society keeps trying to judge the actions of 25-30 years ago through this newly formed BS hypersensitive moral code...and if anything done back then doesn't match what we believe now, we go all ape poop over it.

    We're not good, at the moment, with having an accurate recollection of 25-30 years ago. Just the parts that fit the quick easy to repeat over and over again narrative.

    I do think polling needed questions that were more creative - I don't know if it's possible. People could bring up the crime bill/Biden as a reason to not vote for him and it sounds nice for a poll question but the question/answer need more head turning responses which would be more honest like. I think there's more hate/vitriol built into peoples reasoning for voting either candidate than the appropriate question/responses you get from polling. The disparity between cities/metro vs rural and who they voted for is disappointing. I know it's normal but in this election what was the true reason for it?
     
    This is quite a piece from Politico.


    Which included this gem:

    F131B3BE-5C2F-4CE8-96B8-72046EDB89E0.jpeg
     
    Crazy, for sure.. But sounds perfectly on-brand for the Trump Administration.

    But this piece just reminds us of what a shirtty campaign Trump ran through September. They had a PR disaster on their hands with the virus. The Tulsa rally was horrific, and Trump fired his campaign manager and suffered from a bloated budget and anemic fundraising. The debate did nothing to help them and he had to pull ad budget all over the place for lack of money. Then the second debate was canceled because he had Covid.

    He finally got going in October with a full rally schedule and a reasonably civil second debate leading up to a frenetic final push that mounted a late uptick in support. The police issue helped gel some of his base and ACB to the Court gave them a late win, but on the whole, it was a campaign marred by self-inflicted wounds, average to weak talent, and bad luck.

    And that helped Biden even more - Trump’s unforced errors and a majority of the country wishing for Trump to take the virus more seriously allowed Biden to lay low through the convention and up until the first debate. It kept their logistics budget skinny and allowed them to dump that massive treasury into advertising.

    Forgetting the vote count for a second, it’s just clear that Biden ran a much more professional, disciplined, and opportunistic campaign than Trump. Do those things matter? I think they do.
     
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    But this piece just reminds us of what a shirtty campaign Trump ran through September. They had a PR disaster on their hands with the virus. The Tulsa rally was horrific, and Trump fired his campaign manager and suffered from a bloated budget and anemic fundraising. The debate did nothing to help them and he had to pull ad budget all over the place for lack of money. Then the second debate was canceled because he had Covid.

    He finally got going in October with a full rally schedule and a reasonably civil second debate leading up to a frenetic final push that mounted a late uptick in support but on the whole, it was a campaign marred by self-inflicted wounds, average to weak talent, and bad luck.

    And that helped Biden even more - Trump’s unforced errors and a majority of the country wishing for Trump to take the virus more seriously allowed Biden to lay low through the convention and up until the first debate. It kept their logistics budget skinny and allowed them to dump that massive treasury into advertising.

    Forgetting the vote count for a second, it’s just clear that Biden ran a much more professional, disciplined, and opportunistic campaign than Trump. Dp those things matter? I think they do.

    They do. All Trump had to do was let the science do its thing, and he basically would have been unopposed for a second term.

    Instead, everything cascades.
     
    They do. All Trump had to do was let the science do its thing, and he basically would have been unopposed for a second term.

    Instead, everything cascades.

    Yeah, Trump completely botched handling the virus. I mean, he didn't even pretend to take it seriously. The way he treated Fauci and others was just terrible and no one had much confidence that Trump knew what he was doing or trusted the people who worked for him. His press conferences were awful and I just hated his approach.

    I'm 100% sure Biden would have taken this far more seriously.
     
    They do. All Trump had to do was let the science do its thing, and he basically would have been unopposed for a second term.

    Instead, everything cascades.

    True but that was never going to happen. A man who rejects science in nearly every other application - a man who, for example, thinks that science-based environmental regulation must always yield to immediate business interests - wasn't going to be keen on letting science subvert his leadership and damage the economy (especially in an election year).

    I suppose his biggest failure there was not taking the obvious middle ground. He could have argued to open the economy but leaned more on safety - encouraging what are fairly low-impact mitigation (like masks). But there again Trump's personality and cultural views prevented an easy win, and he instead stoked contempt for the public health officials, the wearing of masks, and even the real acknowledgement of the virus as a genuine challenge for America. Instead of taking a clear cue to lead, Trump folded it into his divisive social/cultural war.

    He relishes being their leader more than he relishes being president. That part is obvious.
     
    All these things Trump said and did make no sense, and i think that we have to remind ourselves that we’re dealing with a guy who has a full-on, raging textbook narcisistic disorder, as well as (most likely) other mental conditions we are unaware of.. Considering those things, It’s kind of crazy that this election was as close as it was.
     
    All these things Trump said and did make no sense, and i think that we have to remind ourselves that we’re dealing with a guy who has a full-on, raging textbook narcisistic disorder, as well as (most likely) other mental conditions we are unaware of.. Considering those things, It’s kind of crazy that this election was as close as it was.

    I think it really says more about the tribal culture war more than anything else. It is the undercurrent of American politics. It swallows most issues whether we realize it or not.
     
    But this piece just reminds us of what a shirtty campaign Trump ran through September. They had a PR disaster on their hands with the virus. The Tulsa rally was horrific, and Trump fired his campaign manager and suffered from a bloated budget and anemic fundraising. The debate did nothing to help them and he had to pull ad budget all over the place for lack of money. Then the second debate was canceled because he had Covid.

    He finally got going in October with a full rally schedule and a reasonably civil second debate leading up to a frenetic final push that mounted a late uptick in support. The police issue helped gel some of his base and ACB to the Court gave them a late win, but on the whole, it was a campaign marred by self-inflicted wounds, average to weak talent, and bad luck.

    And that helped Biden even more - Trump’s unforced errors and a majority of the country wishing for Trump to take the virus more seriously allowed Biden to lay low through the convention and up until the first debate. It kept their logistics budget skinny and allowed them to dump that massive treasury into advertising.

    Forgetting the vote count for a second, it’s just clear that Biden ran a much more professional, disciplined, and opportunistic campaign than Trump. Do those things matter? I think they do.
    Yet...

    Despite his campaign errors, on top of his mismanagement of the Coronavirus pandemic, he still came dangerously close to being re-elected.

    That's scary.
     
    And despite all that, tonight’s speeches actually give me some hope we may come back together as Americans.
     

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