Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

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    superchuck500

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    Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

    Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.


    VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

    But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

    Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

    There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.






     
    As much as I and many others shirt on Germany, they are now the second leading donors to Ukraine as well as taking on refugees. During the Leopards to Ukraine debate, Poland and others were vocal about it but never formally requested Germany to do so. When the Germans finally approved it, Poland wasn't prepared and initially said they wouldn't be able to meet that obligation. Of course since then they have sent some Leopard tanks to Ukraine. The point is: Poland throws out a lot of bluster. Remember early in the war, Poland offered to send jets to Ukraine; have them fly to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, and finally the US would send them to Ukraine. But of course, the US would send F-16s to Poland as replacement? This is not to denigrate Poland's contribution as they eventually sent the Mig parts to Ukraine secretly. It's just to point out that Poland is also operating with their own self interest at heart. The US has stated that it would not prevent any country from sending F-16. Here Poland again will not do so.




    As far as the US sending F-16s, we have two Ukrainian pilots training in the US, probably to determine the length it would take to train them. Also remember that the US uses the Presidential drawdown to supply Ukraine with the necessary aide. That has a limited budget and the stock may need to be replaced, which goes against the budget. This isn't a question of Biden not willing to help. He is working with a constrained environment. If F-16s were to be supplied, what must be cut back elsewhere? Those jets are extremely expensive compared to a HIMARS, for example. What about artillery rounds? And as another reason for the constrained approach, the Ukrainians as part of their list of military aide asked for A-10s as we have tons that are retired. The US bluntly said no as they would be a useless. We need to remember that our economy isn't in a wartime footing. The factories that makes those artillery rounds are at capacity. Biden has to deal with a limited budget, determine what the Ukrainians really need, and account for the manufacturing capacity.
    So because they're sending Migs and not F-16s, it makes the contribution less?
     
    As much as I and many others shirt on Germany, they are now the second leading donors to Ukraine as well as taking on refugees. During the Leopards to Ukraine debate, Poland and others were vocal about it but never formally requested Germany to do so. When the Germans finally approved it, Poland wasn't prepared and initially said they wouldn't be able to meet that obligation. Of course since then they have sent some Leopard tanks to Ukraine. The point is: Poland throws out a lot of bluster. Remember early in the war, Poland offered to send jets to Ukraine; have them fly to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, and finally the US would send them to Ukraine. But of course, the US would send F-16s to Poland as replacement? This is not to denigrate Poland's contribution as they eventually sent the Mig parts to Ukraine secretly. It's just to point out that Poland is also operating with their own self interest at heart. The US has stated that it would not prevent any country from sending F-16. Here Poland again will not do so.


    To be clear, Germany refused to send Leopards unless Biden committed to sending Abrams. And as the article points out, it was " German-made tanks" - not German owned tanks. So other countries that had purchased Leopards were blocked by Germany from sending.

    Germany is sending 14.

    Rest of NATO sending close to 60 total. ( Poland sending 14 as well )


    as for aid, Germany is 4th


    behind Poland, that doesnt have the same economic size as Germany ( Poland GDP around $560B while Germany over $3 Trillion )

    ITs not bluster..they are indeed doing more, relative to their size, than any other European country to date.

    And now, they, along with Slovakia, will deliver Mig 29 fighters to UAF.


     
    So because they're sending Migs and not F-16s, it makes the contribution less?
    Nope, not one bit. It's been clear for months now that Russia will not escalate to nukes after warnings from India and China. What my criticism of their public display is that Poland tend to do things for public pressure. They never formally requested Germany for permission on the Leopard tanks despite public clamoring to do so loudly. They made a big stink early in the war when they could easily have just handed the migs to ukraine. Instead they play this dancing game to leverage blame on the US if shirt hits the fan just as Germany did with the Leopards. We can certainly recognize that they are doing a lot vs their GDP comparatively and still criticize their approach. I sense this is another pressure campaign towards the West and in particular the US and Biden to send f-16. The US again have stated they will not stop anyone from sending any type of aide to Ukraine...especially f-16s. After this Polish move, the US iterated that it will not be swayed on their methodical assessment whether they will send f-16s or not.
     
    To be clear, Germany refused to send Leopards unless Biden committed to sending Abrams. And as the article points out, it was " German-made tanks" - not German owned tanks. So other countries that had purchased Leopards were blocked by Germany from sending.

    Germany is sending 14.

    Rest of NATO sending close to 60 total. ( Poland sending 14 as well )


    as for aid, Germany is 4th


    behind Poland, that doesnt have the same economic size as Germany ( Poland GDP around $560B while Germany over $3 Trillion )

    ITs not bluster..they are indeed doing more, relative to their size, than any other European country to date.

    And now, they, along with Slovakia, will deliver Mig 29 fighters to UAF.


    Yep, since they changed their foreign minister, Germany have accelerated their aid. They are in the process of buying back more leopards so that they can send them to Ukraine. But let's also remember that they have sent many air defense equipment and other types of aid to Ukraine. Their contribution should be rightly criticized, especially early in the war. But they are quickly catching up or have surpassed the UK in aid.

    I've also had suspicion that they are deeply in Russia's pocket. But recently they have been able to purge many Russian agents, much like how we discovered one in our fbi counter intelligence.

    edit: Poland or anyone else never made a formal request to send Leopards until Germany announced that they will not block the transfer of Leopards to Poland. I agree that Germany has really butchered the process concerning the Leopards. Maybe out of fear of retaliation, which explains their insistence to include abrams. Again, Germany has stepped up lately.

    Here: 88 more leopards from Germany promised. And I can't remember if this is included in the 14 that they owned, but the new foreign minister or probably more precisely, rheinmetall searched and accounted a few more that they can repair and send to Ukraine.
     
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    Yep, since they changed their foreign minister, Germany have accelerated their aid. They are in the process of buying back more leopards so that they can send them to Ukraine. But let's also remember that they have sent many air defense equipment and other types of aid to Ukraine. Their contribution should be rightly criticized, especially early in the war. But they are quickly catching up or have surpassed the UK in aid.

    I've also had suspicion that they are deeply in Russia's pocket. But recently they have been able to purge many Russian agents, much like how we discovered one in our fbi counter intelligence.

    edit: Poland or anyone else never made a formal request to send Leopards until Germany announced that they will not block the transfer of Leopards to Poland. I agree that Germany has really butchered the process concerning the Leopards. Maybe out of fear of retaliation, which explains their insistence to include abrams. Again, Germany has stepped up lately.

    Here: 88 more leopards from Germany promised. And I can't remember if this is included in the 14 that they owned, but the new foreign minister or probably more precisely, rheinmetall searched and accounted a few more that they can repair and send to Ukraine.

    thats Leopard I s....less tech than Leopard II - but tanks nontheless.

    Yeah, there was much speculation that Scholz was in Russian pocket, no doubt. Especially in the first 8-10 months of the war, based on just how insanely slow he was to commit to ANYTHING.

    Poland never requested because it was already a known fact that Germany would block any request to transfer tanks to Ukraine. Scholz made the "negotiation" public that only if US sends...and Biden authorized within 2 days.

    Im just hopeful now with Boris Pistorus as Defense minister, things will really start to happen.
     
    If someone can't see this woman is a moron, well, they're bigger idiots than she is.
    I think it's of note that she says because no one has shown her Putin's plan to invade (presumably the rest of) Europe, it must not be so.

    It's almost like she's saying "if Putin were going to invade Europe, someone would have told me already."

    Wonder why a Russian asset US Congressperson would believe that.
     
    thats Leopard I s....less tech than Leopard II - but tanks nontheless.

    Yeah, there was much speculation that Scholz was in Russian pocket, no doubt. Especially in the first 8-10 months of the war, based on just how insanely slow he was to commit to ANYTHING.

    Poland never requested because it was already a known fact that Germany would block any request to transfer tanks to Ukraine. Scholz made the "negotiation" public that only if US sends...and Biden authorized within 2 days.

    Im just hopeful now with Boris Pistorus as Defense minister, things will really start to happen.
    IMHO I think that excuse is a bit weak. A formal request would be more binding and most definitely would corner Germany to a decision. Instead poland went about it with public pressure and humiliated Germany, which they partially deserve. Then again, i may be clouded by my opinion of poland s government.

    W sholtz, I think that he is less in Russia s pocket and more that his country was heavily exposed and leverage. It may be a coincidence but their lng port was inaugurated in dec. maybe that emboldened them. Either way..they are helping much more.
     
    You must understand the geo-political issues when it comes to Germany. Germany was hugely depending on russian gas deliveries to keep their homes heated and their factories running. That has changed now. One year into this the EU is rapidly weaning itself off russian oil/gas. EU has been investing a lot in renewable ressources and pushed forward huge sea windmill projects along the coast.

    Also the Tyra gas field will be back this summer and will definitely make a huge difference next winter, elimating most of the needs to import gas from outside EU

    https://totalenergies.com/projects/...or-offshore-project-core-our-climate-strategy
     
    You must understand the geo-political issues when it comes to Germany. Germany was hugely depending on russian gas deliveries to keep their homes heated and their factories running. That has changed now. One year into this the EU is rapidly weaning itself off russian oil/gas. EU has been investing a lot in renewable ressources and pushed forward huge sea windmill projects along the coast.

    Also the Tyra gas field will be back this summer and will definitely make a huge difference next winter, elimating most of the needs to import gas from outside EU

    https://totalenergies.com/projects/...or-offshore-project-core-our-climate-strategy
    Is that the gas field in Denmark? I had thought your government shut it down due to massive sink holes. That certainly would help wean off the Russian dependency. Plus when Ukraine is more stable, that can be another source.

    Edit. Just had the opportunity to read the link. It’s not the one I was thinking.
     
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    You must understand the geo-political issues when it comes to Germany. Germany was hugely depending on russian gas deliveries to keep their homes heated and their factories running. That has changed now. One year into this the EU is rapidly weaning itself off russian oil/gas. EU has been investing a lot in renewable ressources and pushed forward huge sea windmill projects along the coast.

    Also the Tyra gas field will be back this summer and will definitely make a huge difference next winter, elimating most of the needs to import gas from outside EU

    https://totalenergies.com/projects/...or-offshore-project-core-our-climate-strategy

    LNG is a huge reason why Germany, and Europe in general isn't having issues.

     

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    LNG is a huge reason why Germany, and Europe in general isn't having issues.


    Correct. The war started at a very difficult time for the EU - both Norway and Denmark were doing major upgrades on their north sea installations and Tyra as well as other north European installations were offline for up to 2 years due to renovations. Most are either back again or will be back online in a matter of months.
     
    Too political for the Ukraine thread at the main board:


    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    ·1h


    "China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other Nations of a less than friendly nature, are busy “CARVING UP THE WORLD” as our once great United States of America sits back and watches. We are a Failing Nation, with Open Borders, Fake Elections, and a horrible Inflation Riddled Economy. We no longer set the standard, the standard sets us. Our so-called “Leader” does NOTHING except Eat, Sleep, and S..t! Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?”

    I suppose Trump has accidentally overlooked what Joe Biden has actually been doing whilst he has been vacillating aimlessly between saying Russia is not our problem, to saying he would a tough guy and nuke them, at his rallies and on social media.
     
    Too political for the Ukraine thread at the main board:


    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    ·1h


    "China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other Nations of a less than friendly nature, are busy “CARVING UP THE WORLD” as our once great United States of America sits back and watches. We are a Failing Nation, with Open Borders, Fake Elections, and a horrible Inflation Riddled Economy. We no longer set the standard, the standard sets us. Our so-called “Leader” does NOTHING except Eat, Sleep, and S..t! Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio?”

    I suppose Trump has accidentally overlooked what Joe Biden has actually been doing whilst he has been vacillating aimlessly between saying Russia is not our problem, to saying he would a tough guy and nuke them, at his rallies and on social media.

    China and Russia were in much better shape 3 years ago. It is not even debatable.
     

    The Chinese plan would, imo, end up with Ukraine losing more territory to Putin. Xi has no interest in a plan that would result in the withdrawal of Russian forces from ALL Ukrainian territory including Crimea. Even if Ukraine said Russia could keep Crimea it still isn’t happening. Xi‘s goal is to make China look “good” at the expense of Ukraine and the U.S. while using Putin as an unwitting dupe.
     
    The Chinese plan would, imo, end up with Ukraine losing more territory to Putin. Xi has no interest in a plan that would result in the withdrawal of Russian forces from ALL Ukrainian territory including Crimea. Even if Ukraine said Russia could keep Crimea it still isn’t happening. Xi‘s goal is to make China look “good” at the expense of Ukraine and the U.S. while using Putin as an unwitting dupe.

    Xi isn't a gifted enough statesman or diplomat to pull all that off, not that I'm doubting anything you're saying. But it's enough to get people like SFL to think China actually wants peace or something and that the US just wants to continue the war. And from the ample evidence we have, Xi knows that will further divide and destabilize the US because of people like SFL. So it's definitely worth his effort. Chine's only goal in all of this is just to weaken the West internally and globally.
     

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