The 2022 Midterm Elections heading to the final stretch (1 Viewer)

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    superchuck500

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    Now less than three months away, the primaries are settled and the final campaigning has begun. In some races, polling shows nearly insurmountable leads but the final tally on the makeup of Congress remains unclear.

    One thing that is already clear is that Republicans are seeding their base to believe that any loss is the result of voting manipulation (while legitimate voter suppression activities remain part of their strategy).

     
    Now less than three months away, the primaries are settled and the final campaigning has begun. In some races, polling shows nearly insurmountable leads but the final tally on the makeup of Congress remains unclear.

    One thing that is already clear is that Republicans are seeding their base to believe that any loss is the result of voting manipulation (while legitimate voter suppression activities remain part of their strategy).


    It won't ever change with them. They turn on their own.

    I think with the way things are going, at worse we'll have a split Congress with the Democrats holding on to the Senate and Republicans having a smaller majority in the House than Pelosi has now.
     
    It won't ever change with them. They turn on their own.

    I think with the way things are going, at worse we'll have a split Congress with the Democrats holding on to the Senate and Republicans having a smaller majority in the House than Pelosi has now.
    I’m hopeful Ds can hold the House, and I think the Senate is likely D, they may even pick up a seat or two. Don’t underestimate the Roe decision. It’s driving registrations in even red states, and the new registrations are something like 80-20 D to R among the 18-45 age bracket, IIRC. Even among the older voters the new registrations still break decidedly D as well. Hoping this holds until November.
     
    I’m hopeful Ds can hold the House, and I think the Senate is likely D, they may even pick up a seat or two. Don’t underestimate the Roe decision. It’s driving registrations in even red states, and the new registrations are something like 80-20 D to R among the 18-45 age bracket, IIRC. Even among the older voters the new registrations still break decidedly D as well. Hoping this holds until November.
    Dems have outnumbered Rs for a long time now. What matters is if they get off their arses and vote.
     
    It also matters how "Gerry'd" they are.

    yep, and in some cases, even maps ruled illegal, are still allowed. Here is one example
     
    These midterm races are really getting interesting. This far out, I am not in the "expectation" mode. But there are races closer than I thought they would be and it seems like the Dems have a shot in races I did not expect them to.

    Like Taurus said, though, it's so often a turnout issue.

    Hofeller changed everything for the Republicans and close calls are going to be heavily scrutinized and with this many, this close I worry it could be the most upheaval in a midterm election that I've seen.
     
    Mitch McConnell admitted as much recently. He said it was more likely that the house would flip than the Senate. First because Senate seats are statewide and the Republican candidates are trash.
     
    These midterm races are really getting interesting. This far out, I am not in the "expectation" mode. But there are races closer than I thought they would be and it seems like the Dems have a shot in races I did not expect them to.

    Like Taurus said, though, it's so often a turnout issue.

    Hofeller changed everything for the Republicans and close calls are going to be heavily scrutinized and with this many, this close I worry it could be the most upheaval in a midterm election that I've seen.

    I don't have much to add to this, except welcome back :)
     
    These midterm races are really getting interesting. This far out, I am not in the "expectation" mode. But there are races closer than I thought they would be and it seems like the Dems have a shot in races I did not expect them to.

    Like Taurus said, though, it's so often a turnout issue.

    Hofeller changed everything for the Republicans and close calls are going to be heavily scrutinized and with this many, this close I worry it could be the most upheaval in a midterm election that I've seen.
    I saw this am that 57% of new registered voters in PA after dobbs were women. And of those were overwhelmingly democratic (I cannot remember exactly the number but I think it was north of 70% compared to 18% repub). Even amongs men were more more dems.

    Edit. And a big number amongst women were under 25 yo.
     
    There are about six Senate seats that are legitimately in play: New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The first four have Democrat incumbents. New Hampshire is probably the most secure as the current front-runner in the GOP primary is an election denier loon that popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu has denounced.

    The odds are decent the Democrats can win four out of these six to maintain control of the Senate but it's hardly a guarantee. 538's model currently has the Democrats chance of holding the Senate at 64% (compared to only 23% of holding the House).

    Some people think North Carolina and Ohio are in play -- I can buy the former but not the latter. Despite North Carolina going for Trump in 2020, it's still a relatively purple state and currently has a Democratic governor. Ohio, however, is solidly red. Despite JD Vance being an imbecile and running an ineffective campaign, I think the (R) in front of his name and Trump's backing is more than enough to stave off Tim Ryan.

    Utah will be interesting with Evan McMullin running as an independent and no Democrat running. He got a fairly impressive 21% of the vote in Utah in the 2016 Presidential race. If there's a large enough Democrat turnout (and it's questionable whether Democrats would go to the polls to vote for McMullin who is in-all-other-regards a conservative) and a solid enough anti-Trump push in the GOP... who knows. It's still an uphill battle.

    Similarly, moderate/sane Republican Lisa Murkowski is looking to hang on in Alaska. She might do it thanks to ranked-choice voting.

    Another thought: As we get closer to election day and Trump perceives that certain candidates don't have a good shot at winning he might ease off on his endorsements/campaigning for them because he is so shallow and does not want to be seen tied to losers. This may result in less enthusiasm from Trumpanzees.
     
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    Generic polls are pretty worthless for projecting individual races, but this is interesting in that the party of the president usually loses seats, and after it looking like we were headed for a blood bath for Democrats the polls seem to be trending the other way. My guess is that, regardless of who wins the majority, we'll continue to have razor thin margins in both the House and Senate.

     
    Now less than three months away, the primaries are settled and the final campaigning has begun. In some races, polling shows nearly insurmountable leads but the final tally on the makeup of Congress remains unclear.

    One thing that is already clear is that Republicans are seeding their base to believe that any loss is the result of voting manipulation (while legitimate voter suppression activities remain part of their strategy).



    You'd think that the billion dollar Dominion lawsuit would have Fox more caution about blaming Big Tech on Voter Fraud
     

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