Senate Election Thread (1 Viewer)

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    Ds can 100% write off NC. The affair and text messages just cost Cunningham the election. The debates are done and he dropped out of a town hall. He will hide in hole so he won’t face direct questions until after he loses. Epically dumb to have an affair after getting the nomination.
     
    B4YOU said:
    Ds can 100% write off NC. The affair and text messages just cost Cunningham the election. The debates are done and he dropped out of a town hall. He will hide in hole so he won’t face direct questions until after he loses. Epically dumb to have an affair after getting the nomination.
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    If only he could be held to the same standard as when a guy had multiple affairs, had multiple people accuse him of sexual assault, but shrugged and voted for him anyway
     
    JimEverett said:
    What is going on in South Carolina?
    Is Trump in trouble there, or just Graham?
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    There was a poll at the end of September that had Trump up by only +1, but that doesn’t pass the sniff test. He won SC by 14 in 2016. I can’t imagine any state shifts by 13 pts.

    I’m not sure exactly what is up with Lindsey Graham. He sold his soul and betrayed the memory and family of his best friend because of how much the people of his state support Trump. How he’s in even a close race there I just don’t understand.
     
    It’s just rank hypocrisy, easy to see, easy to punish him for it, too. IMO

    Plus he has a really good opponent, don’t take anything away from Harrison.
     
    This is the part I think explains a lot from the article. Graham is just seen as a "say anything" politician even by the GOP base there.


    The crosstabs in public polling — and what mirrors some private polling — show that Graham still has weaknesses among the GOP base. Overall, in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, Graham is underwater (43% fav/51% unfav), an 8 point gap that rose from five points in the same survey just two weeks prior. Eleven percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Graham, including 56 percent of women. Perhaps most troubling, though, is that by a 10 point margin (40% yes/50% no), voters say they do not believe that Graham is honest — and just three-quarters of Republicans believe he is, in fact, honest. That’s why Democrats think the Supreme Court argument hasn’t moved the race in the weeks since Ginsburg’s death given that the video of Graham saying in 2018 to “hold the tape” if a Supreme Court vacancy occurred during the last year of Trump’s term and Republicans tried to fill it.

    Meanwhile, Harrison has a net favorable rating of +13 (48% fav/35% unfav), and 59% of voters say Harrison cares about average people (a stunning +34 margin) — compared to just 44% who say the same thing about Graham (for a -6 margin). Trump’s approval has also dropped in this poll, and he’s only leading by 1 point as well. While that may be a red flag, multiple sources confirm that Trump’s numbers have dropped even in South Carolina (a state he won by 14 points four years ago), and he’s likely on pace for a slim single-digit victory.
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    My personal take is that pollsters are being very conservative, trying to avoid repeating 2016. In my medium sized town in a deep red state that never gets polled, I saw people yesterday lined up on the sidewalk waiting to vote early at the county office building. That’s very unusual. I don’t get the sense these are voters for the status quo.

    People around here are using signs as a sort of code. There are multiple signs in my neighborhood that talk about equality, justice, kindness, etc. These folks ain’t voting for Trump, IMO. And if I go to a larger city in my state there are so many signs out for Biden, and BLM. This is in contrast to 2016 where the Clinton signs were few and far between.

    This race is shifting, IMO, and not in favor of Trump.
     
    MT15 said:
    My personal take is that pollsters are being very conservative, trying to avoid repeating 2016. In my medium sized town in a deep red state that never gets polled, I saw people yesterday lined up on the sidewalk waiting to vote early at the county office building. That’s very unusual. I don’t get the sense these are voters for the status quo.

    People around here are using signs as a sort of code. There are multiple signs in my neighborhood that talk about equality, justice, kindness, etc. These folks ain’t voting for Trump, IMO. And if I go to a larger city in my state there are so many signs out for Biden, and BLM. This is in contrast to 2016 where the Clinton signs were few and far between.

    This race is shifting, IMO, and not in favor of Trump.
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    I saw these side-by-side this morning. No two elections are ever the same. Yes, Clinton had a polling lead that didn't bear on the electoral result. But also Biden vs. Trump polling is different than Clinton vs. Trump polling.


    1602084097145.png


    1602084110356.png
     
    superchuck500 said:
    I saw these side-by-side this morning. No two elections are ever the same. Yes, Clinton had a polling lead that didn't bear on the electoral result. But also Biden vs. Trump polling is different than Clinton vs. Trump polling.


    1602084097145.png


    1602084110356.png
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    What is telling is that at NO POINT was Biden and Trump even.

    Late april/early may the gap closed to within polling error margins ( usually 3 +/- ) and then WHAM

    Then you look at Clinton with no less than 6 separate times being even.
     

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