Senate Election Thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

So there are 35 Senate seats contested in November. Use this thread to talk about them.

Here's a tracker site:

2020 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin

Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 35 Senate races in the 2020 elections.

www.270towin.com

 

[JimEverett]

I think Georgia is becoming more conservative and that the GOP will go 2 for 2 there (the special election will probably see a run-off between Collins and Loeffler). Even if Biden wins Texas (which probably won't happen), I still think Cornyn holds his seat. He is not as big a water-carrier for Trump as others. The 2018 race between O'Rourke and Cruz was close because even Republicans think Ted Cruz is a worm. And in a non-Presidential Election year a lot of GOP voters possibly sat that one out.

You are probably right about Texas and Georgia. Cornyn seems to be polling a little bit better than Trump, but only by 3 or 4 points. A huge turnout from anti-Trump folks - at least far bigger than anticipated could do it, but I know its unlikely.
I think Warnock will make it, but probably not win, but the open election there makes it harder to say if the Republicans are running substantially ahead of Trump.

 

[JimEverett]

I meant to add one thing too: I think the SCOTUS fight serves to help Republicans in North Carolina. Tillis appears to be polling less than Trump and the SCOTUS fight should allow him to show proper allegiance while forcing Cunningham to come out strongly against Trump?

In Colorado I think the SCOTUS fight hurts Gardner. I am going to guess that it hurts McSally, although not sure. I am also not sure about Iowa - will be interesting to see how it plays out there and in a few other places.

 

[Ayo]

I think Iowa has a shot among those

I meant to add one thing too: I think the SCOTUS fight serves to help Republicans in North Carolina. Tillis appears to be polling less than Trump and the SCOTUS fight should allow him to show proper allegiance while forcing Cunningham to come out strongly against Trump?

In Colorado I think the SCOTUS fight hurts Gardner. I am going to guess that it hurts McSally, although not sure. I am also not sure about Iowa - will be interesting to see how it plays out there and in a few other places.

the Iowa race is the one that I find the most interesting in terms of a potential flip that I didn't imagine would be one a couple of years ago

 

[Ayo]

I think Georgia is becoming more conservative and that the GOP will go 2 for 2 there (the special election will probably see a run-off between Collins and Loeffler). Even if Biden wins Texas (which probably won't happen), I still think Cornyn holds his seat. He is not as big a water-carrier for Trump as others. The 2018 race between O'Rourke and Cruz was close because even Republicans think Ted Cruz is a worm. And in a non-Presidential Election year a lot of GOP voters possibly sat that one out.

yea I don’t see how Texas comes up with anything but Cronyn and Trump

 

[Nebaghead]

I think Iowa has a shot among those


the Iowa race is the one that I find the most interesting in terms of a potential flip that I didn't imagine would be one a couple of years ago

Ernst is not well liked. We border Iowa and they are after her with a huge ad campaign.

 

[Booker]

Right now if I had to pick I would say it ends up 51-49 in favor of Republicans.

I think Republicans pick up Alabama, the only other real chance Republicans have of picking up a seat is in Michigan and its not likely.
they lose Colorado, Arizona, and Maine

If Reublicans carry the SEnate it is likely by only the tiebreaker, 2, or 4 seats 50-50 to 52-48. But, depending on how the PResidential election plays out the Democrats could conceivably get to 55 seats (assuming Montana, Georgia, and Texas break for them - in addition to all the toss ups).

Iowa and North Carolina are in play, but I think that's probably a fair prediction.

 

[zztop]

I think Georgia is becoming more conservative

Is GA really becoming more conservative, or becoming more because of voter suppression tactics? There was a lot of shirt during their last election for governor

 

[Maxp]

Is GA really becoming more conservative, or becoming more because of voter suppression tactics? There was a lot of shirt during their last election for governor

Aren't they the same thing?

On a different note, there is only one Trump sign in my neighborhood on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay. There are plenty of Doug Jones signs and stickers in the county. I've also seen Biden promotional stuff. In 2016, I saw exactly zero Hilary signs or stickers down here. Trump's support has certainly lessened compared to 4 years ago. How that plays out, I don't know.

 

[JimEverett]

Aren't they the same thing?

On a different note, there is only one Trump sign in my neighborhood on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay. There are plenty of Doug Jones signs and stickers in the county. I've also seen Biden promotional stuff. In 2016, I saw exactly zero Hilary signs or stickers down here. Trump's support has certainly lessened compared to 4 years ago. How that plays out, I don't know.

You live in Baldwin County? I consider it to be one of the greatest places on earth

 

[superchuck500]

There's no way Gardner wins in Colorado. He's been running a ton of ads attacking Hickenlooper for ethical violations (while governor he accepted "gifts" in the form of a plane ride and a limo ride, for which he was fined $2700) but is still down at least 5 points in every poll.

He lucked out in 2014, when Democratic turnout was low and his incumbent opponent's only message was that Gardner was anti-abortion, but he'll be swimming upstream this year. Hillary Clinton won Colorado in 2016, Jared Polis was elected governor in a blowout in 2018, and this year Biden is out polling Trump by 10 points in every poll. He's toast and he knows it.

The race in Colorado that could be interesting is the one for the western slope Congressional seat. It's generally been a safe Republican seat, but the incumbent lost in the primary to a QAnon proponent, so the Democrat might actually have a chance.

I saw Gardner said “I will vote to confirm!”

I just don’t see how a Senator with any self-worth would say they would vote for something that they don’t even know what it is. A smart person knows how to nuance that so they don’t look like a blind follower with no principles. Something like “I trust the president and his team will put forth a qualified nominee and I expect to confirm that nominee.”

 

[Ayo]

Aren't they the same thing?

On a different note, there is only one Trump sign in my neighborhood on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay. There are plenty of Doug Jones signs and stickers in the county. I've also seen Biden promotional stuff. In 2016, I saw exactly zero Hilary signs or stickers down here. Trump's support has certainly lessened compared to 4 years ago. How that plays out, I don't know.

I don’t think it’s going to be close.

 

[JimEverett]

I saw Gardner said “I will vote to confirm!”

I just don’t see how a Senator with any self-worth would say they would vote for something that they don’t even know what it is. A smart person knows how to nuance that so they don’t look like a blind follower with no principles. Something like “I trust the president and his team will put forth a qualified nominee and I expect to confirm that nominee.”

When I read that I assumed he was just hedging his bets with the party in case he needs a job. He knows he is toast in this election.

 

[Lapaz]

There's no way Gardner wins in Colorado. He's been running a ton of ads attacking Hickenlooper for ethical violations (while governor he accepted "gifts" in the form of a plane ride and a limo ride, for which he was fined $2700) but is still down at least 5 points in every poll.

He lucked out in 2014, when Democratic turnout was low and his incumbent opponent's only message was that Gardner was anti-abortion, but he'll be swimming upstream this year. Hillary Clinton won Colorado in 2016, Jared Polis was elected governor in a blowout in 2018, and this year Biden is out polling Trump by 10 points in every poll. He's toast and he knows it.

The race in Colorado that could be interesting is the one for the western slope Congressional seat. It's generally been a safe Republican seat, but the incumbent lost in the primary to a QAnon proponent, so the Democrat might actually have a chance.

I agree with you that Hickenlooper is looking very strong in Colorado. Per 270, he leads in every poll.

Colorado 2020 Senate Polls - 270toWin

Polling conducted for the 2020 Senate election in Colorado.

www.270towin.com

 

[B4YOU]

I think a Dem 49-51 or 50-50 split is the most likely outcome. Dems pick up CO, AZ, ME and GOP gets AL. Dems are up 2 in Iowa and 5 in NC. One of these may flip and that gets them to 50. MT and SC aren’t going blue even if they are -1 and 0 for Dems. I don’t think any state that polls less than Dems +5 on Election Day will flip.

 

[CoolBrees]

I see it as a 50- 49 Dems with North Carolina being the wild card. That gives the Dems- CO, ME, AZ and IA.

Alabama does Alabama things and elects a football coach, and not a very good one at that.

 

[BobE]

Garner will lose Co and McSally will get blown TF out in Az. The rest I really don't know.

 

[zztop]

Aren't they the same thing?

Not really, that is like saying gerrymandering is a fair and accurate representation of districts. At least in my opinion, you can have a state (such as GA) trying to retain and even increase their (R) power over a population that isn't as lopsided in favor of (R) beliefs and ideals. If you have a state that has...oh, say tossed out thousands of votes, passed voted laws and had purges that impacted overwhelmingly those that were mostly (D) ...and the end result after elections was overwhelmingly in favor of (R) then taken at face value a person might go "oh that is a state increasingly becoming conservative" but is it really? Or just a consequence of all this meddling

 

[Lapaz]

I see it as a 50- 49 Dems with North Carolina being the wild card. That gives the Dems- CO, ME, AZ and IA.

Alabama does Alabama things and elects a football coach, and not a very good one at that.

In Alabama's defense, the other Senators we've elected were at least intelligent, and weren't crooks. Tuberville is not just an idiot, but he's also a crook, but unfortunately he's way ahead of Jones. I'm convinced he will be an embarrassment in congress. I'm very proud of Jones, but intelligence isn't prized here. Check out Tuberville's hedge fund:

A Trump-Backed Senate Candidate’s Hedge Fund Disaster (Published 2020)

Tommy Tuberville, the football coach and leading Republican vying to take on Senator Doug Jones in Alabama, had a tumultuous foray into finance.

www.nytimes.com

No wonder Trump loves him. Tuberville will make me long for Sessions. For all of Sessions' faults, he is intelligent and showed integrity as AG.