Senate Election Thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

So there are 35 Senate seats contested in November. Use this thread to talk about them.

Here's a tracker site:

2020 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin

Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 35 Senate races in the 2020 elections.

www.270towin.com

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

With all due respect, I don’t think so, Saul. This election is different. Women have been awakened to the fact that Rs want to deny them vital healthcare. Young women and the men in their lives especially so. I think the pollsters are seeing hints, but they aren’t capturing the whole story. This is my belief. And hope as well.

Definitely my hope, just not my belief. There are also a lot of conservative women out there -- especially in Iowa -- who are against abortion.

And, like the above shows, I think many people are still aloof to the fact that for most adults Supreme Court nominees are basically eternal. That is, these days if you are over 30ish you aren't going to see more than one or two people occupy the same seat for the rest of your lifetime. And it is far far FAR more partisan that it has ever been in history.

 

[SystemShock]

“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,”

Old wives' tale.

 

[DaveXA]

“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,”

Old wives' tale.

It is, and it still works well enough that a lot of people believe it.

 

[TaylorB]

It is, and it still works well enough that a lot of people believe it.

To be fair, GOP leaders are pro-business the extent that being pro-business widens the wealth gap. That is the goal, after all. The myth is that they're better overall stewards of the economy and that their wealth gap expanding measures somehow benefit the working class. Sorry, but the guy who announced his candidacy as he descended an escalator made of gold does not care if the rising price of milk will impact your ability to pay your electric bill.

 

[BullSheetBuddha]

There are a lot of factors to be considered.

Democrat or Republican: Which Political Party Has Grown the Economy More?

Democrats and Republicans have different economic views and different ideas about what's best for growth. Which party has boosted the economy more?

www.thebalancemoney.com

 

[UriUT]

Wow. Ryan is really good at these judo redirect attacks.

 

[UriUT]

Really short memories…

Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinct advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum to take back power from Democrats in next month’s midterm elections, a New York Times/Siena...

www.yahoo.com

Weak survey. The sample size was half from last month and they admitted that they questioned more trump supporters.

 

[Lapaz]

yeah, I was just reading about that:

The survey showed that the economy remained a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion.

“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,” said Robin Ackerman, a 37-year-old Democrat and mortgage loan officer who lives in New Castle, Del., and is planning to vote Republican this fall.

Ms. Ackerman said she disagreed “1,000 percent” with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and erase the national right to an abortion. “But that doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision,” she said of her fall vote. “I’m more worried about other things.”

I don’t hear Democrats explaining that inflation is global, and that it is cyclical. Most western countries have high inflation. The world economies are interconnected. Congress and the president can only affect it on the margins. Republicans can’t fix inflation. Democrats need to hammer that.

In the U.S. and around the world, inflation is high and getting higher

In nearly all of the 44 advanced economies we analyzed, consumer prices have risen substantially since pre-pandemic times.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

I don’t hear Democrats explaining that inflation is global, and that it is cyclical. Most western countries have high inflation. The world economies are interconnected. Congress and the president can only affect it on the margins. Republicans can’t fix inflation. Democrats need to hammer that.

In the U.S. and around the world, inflation is high and getting higher

In nearly all of the 44 advanced economies we analyzed, consumer prices have risen substantially since pre-pandemic times.

www.pewresearch.org

Nah, they just gonna triple down on the Dobbs ruling, Democrats have surrendered the truth as to what is driving inflation!

I swear, Republicans work way too hard to make Democrats look silly during election season, they do a fine job all on their own, They gave Republicans all the material they need to make them squirm and you see it in all R ads: Defund Police, Crime, Inflation.

 

[J-DONK]

I don’t hear Democrats explaining that inflation is global, and that it is cyclical. Most western countries have high inflation. The world economies are interconnected. Congress and the president can only affect it on the margins. Republicans can’t fix inflation. Democrats need to hammer that.

In the U.S. and around the world, inflation is high and getting higher

In nearly all of the 44 advanced economies we analyzed, consumer prices have risen substantially since pre-pandemic times.

www.pewresearch.org

I'm not an economist, but there are some fundamental issues to be worried about. Right now we are essentially having the post covid boom. That caused a supply crisis not seen since the 70's. Part of Europe's issue is buying gas, and oil from more expensive sources. That causes inflation elsewhere because those price increases get carried over to the market. The other is a tight labor market. That's caused by demographics. I'm not sure the Fed can fix that without destroying the economy.

I still think Jerome Powell is insane ditching his dual mandate, and trying to screw over the labor market. That dude needs to go.

 

[Lapaz]

I'm not an economist, but there are some fundamental issues to be worried about. Right now we are essentially having the post covid boom. That caused a supply crisis not seen since the 70's. Part of Europe's issue is buying gas, and oil from more expensive sources. That causes inflation elsewhere because those price increases get carried over to the market. The other is a tight labor market. That's caused by demographics. I'm not sure the Fed can fix that without destroying the economy.

I still think Jerome Powell is insane ditching his dual mandate, and trying to screw over the labor market. That dude needs to go.

I think you’re right on all accounts, and my complaint is that Democrats aren’t making the case that those are global issues, which Republicans can’t fix. Republicans keep blaming Democrats, and Democrats need to at least point out that inflation is a global issue, and then challenge Republicans to offer an idea.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Uh, Marco... that's not what she said.

 

[J-DONK]

I think you’re right on all accounts, and my complaint is that Democrats aren’t making the case that those are global issues, which Republicans can’t fix. Republicans keep blaming Democrats, and Democrats need to at least point out that inflation is a global issue, and then challenge Republicans to offer an idea.

Republicans never offer solutions, they consider a policy plan nothing more then a way for Democrats to attack. If a tight labor market is actually the problem, the most coherent solution is to increase immigration. Republicans will never pass a bill to allow more brown people from Mexico, or India into the country.

America is also the one country that could force some of these Russian draft dodgers to assimilate. "Go to college here, get a degree and you can stay."

 

[MT15]

Uh, Marco... that's not what she said.

It’s the R playbook. Accuse the opposition of what you are doing. Their position is the radical one.

A woman recently had her membranes break at 17 weeks. She was denied an abortion in her state, doctors said they had to wait until the fetus actually died (which is inevitable) before they could help her. She ran a real risk of becoming septic and dying during this wait. So she had to drive 400 miles to a state where she could get help. If the Rs pass their national ban, what would happen then? A certain percentage of these women will die, that’s what will happen. These laws are barbaric.

Even women who are against abortion know that every pregnant woman is endangered by these laws. I don’t think some men understand it yet but they will. The men (mostly) who are pushing these laws need to be voted out. They aren’t doctors and their pushing for these laws will kill women. When women say “abortion is vital healthcare” this situation is what they are talking about. It could happen to any woman who is pregnant.

 

[Lapaz]

It’s the R playbook. Accuse the opposition of what you are doing. Their position is the radical one.

A woman recently had her membranes break at 17 weeks. She was denied an abortion in her state, doctors said they had to wait until the fetus actually died (which is inevitable) before they could help her. She ran a real risk of becoming septic and dying during this wait. So she had to drive 400 miles to a state where she could get help. If the Rs pass their national ban, what would happen then? A certain percentage of these women will die, that’s what will happen. These laws are barbaric.

Even women who are against abortion know that every pregnant woman is endangered by these laws. I don’t think some men understand it yet but they will. The men (mostly) who are pushing these laws need to be voted out. They aren’t doctors and their pushing for these laws will kill women. When women say “abortion is vital healthcare” this situation is what they are talking about. It could happen to any woman who is pregnant.

Actually both the position that it is a woman's choice, without any restrictions, is just as radical as the position that a woman can't have an abortion after 6 weeks or if a pregnancy will inevitably fail. The middle ground is that 3rd term abortions should have restrictions, 1st terms should not have any restrictions, and then something in between for 2nd term abortions. Also, while women are overwhelmingly pro choice, about half of women believe there should be restrictions, which is just barely less than men. So there isn't much of a difference between men and women. That may not be reflected by legislatures yet.

Abortion Trends by Gender

This page outlines Gallup's long-term trends on Americans' views about abortion by gender.

news.gallup.com

 

[Lapaz]

Republicans never offer solutions, they consider a policy plan nothing more then a way for Democrats to attack. If a tight labor market is actually the problem, the most coherent solution is to increase immigration. Republicans will never pass a bill to allow more brown people from Mexico, or India into the country.

America is also the one country that could force some of these Russian draft dodgers to assimilate. "Go to college here, get a degree and you can stay."

Immigration has always been one of our strengths that somewhat buffers the global impact on the U.S. There are other things, such as our resources, but in the end, we can't completely avoid being impacted by global issues.

With that said, another narrative that Democrats need to message better is the economy. I think the economy is doing great, irrespective of inflation. We are hiring at a fantastic rate, and businesses are still craving employees. I don't see businesses going under at an unusual rate. The only thing that makes people think we have a bad economy is inflation, but that doesn't make a bad economy, and by the way, it'll help offset our debt and deficits. I see wages going up, and as long as that keeps up, and then inflation comes back down, we'll be better off once it does.

 

[coldseat]

Immigration has always been one of our strengths that somewhat buffers the global impact on the U.S. There are other things, such as our resources, but in the end, we can't completely avoid being impacted by global issues.

With that said, another narrative that Democrats need to message better is the economy. I think the economy is doing great, irrespective of inflation. We are hiring at a fantastic rate, and businesses are still craving employees. I don't see businesses going under at an unusual rate. The only thing that makes people think we have a bad economy is inflation, but that doesn't make a bad economy, and by the way, it'll help offset our debt and deficits. I see wages going up, and as long as that keeps up, and then inflation comes back down, we'll be better off once it does.

Honestly, it doesn't matter what the Democrats message is on the economy is. American voters have it baked into their unconscious/conscious beliefs that Republicans are better for the economy because they cut taxes and regulation. That belief is reinforced by corporate America because Republicans allow them to operate with impunity as long as they fill their campaign coffers and keep their mouth shut on social issues. It's also reinforced by a 24 hour conservative and main stream news cycle that often parrot Republican talking points.

Democrats are often scared to talk about regulations and new taxes because of fear of backlash from the public sense it's been so conditioned to believe that those things are negative and evil after years of propaganda. They also receive plenty of corporate political donations to effect their vote on bills that do go through to make policy more advantageous for corporate America. And while trickle down economics have been shown over and over again to be a farce, there are many Americans (a large majority of which are poor and middle class) that believe it does work and want to keep those principles in play.

And too many people are too busy or stupid to have an informed opinion on the economy, so tropes and biases rule the day.

 

[brandon]

Actually both the position that it is a woman's choice, without any restrictions, is just as radical as the position that a woman can't have an abortion after 6 weeks or if a pregnancy will inevitably fail.

Cool. There's no one advocating for abortion with absolutely no restrictions, which was the point @MT15 was making.

The middle ground is that 3rd term abortions should have restrictions, 1st terms should not have any restrictions, and then something in between for 2nd term abortions.

So, the Democrat's position. Also, the position we had before the overturn of Roe.

Also, while women are overwhelmingly pro choice, about half of women believe there should be restrictions, which is just barely less than men. So there isn't much of a difference between men and women. That may not be reflected by legislatures yet.

Yea. There's not much difference. People generally agree on a middle ground, which is pretty much the position of the Democractic party.