Senate Election Thread (2 Viewers)

[superchuck500]

So there are 35 Senate seats contested in November. Use this thread to talk about them.

Here's a tracker site:

2020 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin

Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 35 Senate races in the 2020 elections.

www.270towin.com

 

[Saint by the Bay]

I just did a quick check. Barack Obama resigned his Senate seat immediately after being elected in order to allow a replacement to be seated before the next session of Congress. However, it is up to the candidate. Kamala could do the same or hang on. I see no reason for her to hang on.

Biden didn't resign his until Jan. 15th for some reason.

Edit: More research. Biden kept his until Jan. 15th so he could be the 14th longest tenured Senator. Seems like a silly reason, but everyone has their quirks I guess.

Why Is VP-Elect Joe Biden Still A Senator?

Joe Biden will resign his Senate seat on Thursday — making him the 14th in Senate seniority in history.

www.npr.org

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Senate Predictions (only listing the close races/change-in-seat):

Iowa: Ernst (R) over Greenfield (D)
Georgia: Runoff (neither Ossoff or Perdue will crack 50%)
Georgia Special: Runoff (Warnock and Loeffler)
Maine: Gideon (D) over Collins (R)
North Carolina: Cunningham (D) over Tillis (R)
Montana: Daines (R) over Bullock (D)
South Carolina: Graham (R) over Harrison (D)
Kansas: Marshall (R) over Bollier (D)
Alaska: Gross (I) over Sullivan (R) (upset special!)
Arizona: Kelly (D) over McSally (R)
Michigan: Peters (D) over James (R)
Alabama: Tuberville (R) over Jones (D)
Texas: Cornyn (R) over Hegar (D)
Colorado: Hickenlooper (D) over Gardner (R)

This means that going into the Georgia runoffs, the Democrats would have a 51-47 edge. Even if the GOP win both Georgia runoffs the Democrats would still take the Senate. I would add that I would not be totally surprised to see any of the Democrats listed, except Jones, win. However, it would take those respective states voting for Biden because ticket-splitting is a thing of the past in this partisan era. Maybe Bullock in Montana because Tester, the other Senator and a Democrat, won there by a 3% margin in 2018 despite Trump unloading on him. I think the Democrats dropped the ball sinking so much money into Jamie Harrison when far more winnable contests in Montana, Alaska, and Texas could have used more money/recognition.

 

[JimEverett]

Polls seemed to have tightened considerably in Maine. I know virtually nothing about politics in Maine, but I am a little surprised that all the polls in state during this past week have it within 3 or less.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Polls seemed to have tightened considerably in Maine. I know virtually nothing about politics in Maine, but I am a little surprised that all the polls in state during this past week have it within 3 or less.

Maine and Iowa tightening both surprise me. I have a hard time believing Susan Collins can survive in Maine, but I think Ernst holds on in Iowa.

 

[wardorican]

Looking like a 50-50 Senate unless the Dems pull off an upset or two, which means the party that wins the White House may be the one that controls the Senate.

If polling holds up, Dems get 51-52 seats. Actual likely spread is Dems having 48-55 seats.

 

[Complex Kid]

If polling holds up, Dems get 51-52 seats. Actual likely spread is Dems having 48-55 seats.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

Polls seemed to have tightened considerably in Maine. I know virtually nothing about politics in Maine, but I am a little surprised that all the polls in state during this past week have it within 3 or less.

Maine benefits from instant run-off/ranked choice voting. Some polls have shown the Green candidate getting as much as 5% of the vote. Assuming the vast majority of those people select Gideon as their second choice then you can add a few percentage points to Gideon's actual number in the polls.

 

[Saint by the Bay]

Dear little Eight Pound, Six Ounce, Newborn Infant Jesus, don't even know a word yet, just a little infant, so cuddly, but still omnipotent. Please, in your tiny little infant wisdom let that smug, spineless, hypocrite Lindsey Graham lose today.

I promise Tiny Jesus, in your golden fleece diapers with your tiny, little fat balled up fists, that if you do I will eat all my kale soup when my wife insults me by serving it and will properly clean my King Cake babies this year and put them in a place of prominence.

Please, Baby Jesus, smite Lindsey Graham. He really deserves it.

 

[MT15]

Best description I saw of Graham was a political pundit in TV, and I can’t give credit because I don’t remember who it was.

Lindsey is a pilot fish, those parasitic fish who latch on to a much larger shark. He doesn’t have any morals or ideals of his own, just adapts to whatever shark he happens to have latched on to.

When McCain was his shark, he seemed reasonable, moral, upstanding. We see now it was just his parasitic self reflecting his shark.

 

[superchuck500]

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Well, he won't have to worry about that...

 

[wardorican]

48 - 51 is the likely spread of possibilities for Democrats in the Senate.

49 may be the most likely number. Very, very close. Kelly has to hold his lead.

And GA will likely have a runoff if Perdue doesn't get 50%

 

[DaveXA]

48 - 51 is the likely spread of possibilities for Democrats in the Senate.

49 may be the most likely number. Very, very close. Kelly has to hold his lead.

And GA will likely have a runoff if Perdue doesn't get 50%

I suspect both Senate seats will wind up runoffs. Perdue had just over 50% and I suspect the remaining ballots being counted will drop him below the 50% threshold.

Pretty sure the Republicans will ultimately hang on to the Senate by the narrowest of margins, 51-49. 50-50 puts the Senate in the D's hands because Harris would be the tiebreaker vote.

 

[zztop]

this is why I don't trust predictions, wasn't there a prediction a couple weeks back where there was like a 68% probability that (D) would control the senate?

Out of the ones listed above, I am in disbelief that Collins, of all people, would have won. All her expressions of "doubts and concerns" while voting lock step with the rest of spineless republicans, and voting for judges that will (probably) strip other women of reproductive rights etc. She is just as bad as the rest of the (R) senate

 

[wardorican]

this is why I don't trust predictions, wasn't there a prediction a couple weeks back where there was like a 68% probability that (D) would control the senate?

Out of the ones listed above, I am in disbelief that Collins, of all people, would have won. All her expressions of "doubts and concerns" while voting lock step with the rest of spineless republicans, and voting for judges that will (probably) strip other women of reproductive rights etc. She is just as bad as the rest of the (R) senate

68% isnt a lot better than a coin flip.

The range of possibilities was 48-54 dem seats.

49 would be in range.

 

[Nebaghead]

If both GA races go to run offs, there is a good story for the dems to say if you want Biden to be able to govern, he needs the senate. Get those votes out. Dems will be energized to get out to make that happen. Trump supporters will likely be disenfranchised from losing and not show up.

 

[zztop]

68% isnt a lot better than a coin flip.

The range of possibilities was 48-54 dem seats.

49 would be in range.

I don't know, those lofty (confident) predictions were made for...I guess, they THOUGHT that confidently of the situation. I'm basing off the "high point" of their prediction. I don't remember the exact %, but I think it was pretty high that they felt that (D) would control the senate, like a greater chance/probability vs say 20%
There was also expectation that (D) would pick up a few more in the house, and they actually lost some seats there.

 

[DaveXA]

If both GA races go to run offs, there is a good story for the dems to say if you want Biden to be able to govern, he needs the senate. Get those votes out. Dems will be energized to get out to make that happen. Trump supporters will likely be disenfranchised from losing and not show up.

Actually, I think it's going to be the opposite.