Long, but sobering read about how the election and its results may play out... (1 Viewer)

[nolaspe]

It outlines how potentially ugly things can get...

The Election That Could Break America

If the vote is close, Donald Trump could easily throw the election into chaos and subvert the result. Who will stop him?

www.theatlantic.com

 

[CoolBrees]

Attached is the Realclearpolitics current map with no toss up states.

Two things helping my sanity right now.

As nervous as I am, if this map were to play out he wouldn’t be able to cry foul. This is an absolute arse kicking. And no amount of QAnon and his sycophants nonsense would be able to push a meaningful narrative

Second, is the numbers behind this. Biden is consistently at or very close to 50% in all of the battlegrounds and the national average. Which means Trump will have to peel voters away not just win the undecideds. Hillary was always low 40’s with large undecideds that broke late for Trump. That isn’t the case now

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

2020 Electoral College Map

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[Ayo]

I ran across some old Trump media last weekend down the Youtube rabbit hole. It was mostly pre 2016 documentary (loosely) clips from his days coming up in NY. The thing that stood out was how he's used the same verbiage and mannerisms his whole adult life. It's almost like a character/persona he became. The one of a roudy New Yorker. I sort of see it as his shtick.

He's either the dummest orange orangutang (to paraphrase) or a genious diabolical mastermind. Which is it? Can it be a mix of both?

The Democrats were not gracious in defeat in 2016 and throughout today. I think the balking of the results will be similar with both sides. While the system of checks and balances should be enforced and the appropriate agencies should absolutely keep tabs on rhetoric and developments, I find these articles incendiary and unhealthy for our nation.

Maybe it's my inner self just wanting us to find peace, get along, and, ultimately, get things done for the good of the People.

I mean, this is reasonable but also feels tangential to my point. I’m having trouble reading it as a response.

Trump hasn’t changed. Okay. But that doesn’t mean the rhetoric around the election results is the same. You seem to suggest that the “balking” would be comparable. I’m saying the balking right now from the candidates is not.

and I dont think Trump gets a pass because he’s been like this for a while.

if you’re really worried about incendiary times, I’d think an approach that weighs, relatively, that difference in rhetoric makes sense. But it isn’t in your post. I don’t get it, is all.

 

[Ayo]

Attached is the Realclearpolitics current map with no toss up states.

Two things helping my sanity right now.

As nervous as I am, if this map were to play out he wouldn’t be able to cry foul. This is an absolute arse kicking. And no amount of QAnon and his sycophants nonsense would be able to push a meaningful narrative

Second, is the numbers behind this. Biden is consistently at or very close to 50% in all of the battlegrounds and the national average. Which means Trump will have to peel voters away not just win the undecideds. Hillary was always low 40’s with large undecideds that broke late for Trump. That isn’t the case now

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

2020 Electoral College Map

www.realclearpolitics.com

I don’t see Biden taking Florida and Ohio. I think Trump has a better shot at the two-fer than Biden. I give him a much better shot in the other BG states.

 

[N.O.Bronco]

I ran across some old Trump media last weekend down the Youtube rabbit hole. It was mostly pre 2016 documentary (loosely) clips from his days coming up in NY. The thing that stood out was how he's used the same verbiage and mannerisms his whole adult life. It's almost like a character/persona he became. The one of a roudy New Yorker. I sort of see it as his shtick.

He's either the dummest orange orangutang (to paraphrase) or a genious diabolical mastermind. Which is it? Can it be a mix of both?

The Democrats were not gracious in defeat in 2016 and throughout today. I think the balking of the results will be similar with both sides. While the system of checks and balances should be enforced and the appropriate agencies should absolutely keep tabs on rhetoric and developments, I find these articles incendiary and unhealthy for our nation.

Maybe it's my inner self just wanting us to find peace, get along, and, ultimately, get things done for the good of the People.

Have you read the article in the OP?

Honest question because based on your responses it would appear you have not.

If so can you demonstrate what specifically in the article you consider to be hysteronics and comparable to what Democrats did in 2016, or how Democrats are poised to act the same way as established in the article, specific examples are required here.

Then can you explain why reporting on facts regarding our most cherished political process is dangerous to the American Public?

 

[CoolBrees]

@Ayo -
I would think so too but again that is the state of the map today per RCP. He is losing ground in Ohio and again there are very few undecideds this time. Coming from behind means peeling voters from the other candidate. I don’t see either one doing much if any of that

 

[N.O.Bronco]

@Ayo -
I would think so too but again that is the state of the map today per RCP. He is losing ground in Ohio and again there are very few undecideds this time. Coming from behind means peeling voters from the other candidate. I don’t see either one doing much if any of that

Personally, I am spotting Trump at least a couple points in every state for voter suppression and general election forkery.

 

[Ayo]

@Ayo -
I would think so too but again that is the state of the map today per RCP. He is losing ground in Ohio and again there are very few undecideds this time. Coming from behind means peeling voters from the other candidate. I don’t see either one doing much if any of that

look, I hope you are right and I do generally trust RCP as an aggregator. I have relatives in Ohio and they seem resigned to him taking the state andit just serves to confirm my preconceived assumptions. I am definitely not claiming any authority beyond a gut feeling lol

 

[MT15]

It’s to Trumps advantage that they feel that way, obviously. Please encourage them to vote, if there’s any chance they are thinking of sitting this out.

 

[NoPartyMike]

Have you read the article in the OP?

Honest question because based on your responses it would appear you have not.

If so can you demonstrate what specifically in the article you consider to be hysteronics and comparable to what Democrats did in 2016, or how Democrats are poised to act the same way as established in the article, specific examples are required here.

Then can you explain why reporting on facts regarding our most cherished political process is dangerous to the American Public?

I skimmed through. I don't have time to dive in, but it's laden with "what if" scenarios matched with quick takes.

The tone set by this opening paragraph is histrionic:

"The danger is not merely that the 2020 election will bring discord. Those who fear something worse take turbulence and controversy for granted. The coronavirus pandemic, a reckless incumbent, a deluge of mail-in ballots, a vandalized Postal Service, a resurgent effort to suppress votes, and a trainload of lawsuits are bearing down on the nation’s creaky electoral machinery."

This reads like a doomsday movie script.

I'm not saying Democrats are going to act in the manner the article presents. I'm saying both will challenge the results, but after being checked, the winner will be sworn in and the loser will fade into history. That Trump will not go into exile while throwing dictatorial molotovs from afar.

I agree with Biden here, as the article warns he doesn't see any of this happening either.

I'm not seeing much "fact" in the article, but many "what ifs."

 

[brandon]

"The danger is not merely that the 2020 election will bring discord. Those who fear something worse take turbulence and controversy for granted. The coronavirus pandemic, a reckless incumbent, a deluge of mail-in ballots, a vandalized Postal Service, a resurgent effort to suppress votes, and a trainload of lawsuits are bearing down on the nation’s creaky electoral machinery."

This reads like a doomsday movie script.

And which part of it do you claim is inaccurate?

Turbulence and controversy? Check.
Coronavirus pandemic? Check.
Reckless incumbent? Check.
Deluge of mail-in ballots? Almost certainly a check.
Vandalized Postal Service? Check.
Resurgent effort to suppress votes? Check.
Lawsuits incoming? Check.
Creaky electoral machinery? Check.

It reads like a doomsday movie script because it very much is a potential doomsday scenario for our democracy.

If it sounds alarm bells in your head, but then you go through and confirm that every part of what is being said is accurate, then perhaps the alarm bells are not the problem.

 

[NoPartyMike]

And which part of it do you claim is inaccurate?

Turbulence and controversy? Check.
Coronavirus pandemic? Check.
Reckless incumbent? Check.
Deluge of mail-in ballots? Almost certainly a check.
Vandalized Postal Service? Check.
Resurgent effort to suppress votes? Check.
Lawsuits incoming? Check.
Creaky electoral machinery? Check.

It reads like a doomsday movie script because it very much is a potential doomsday scenario for our democracy.

If it sounds alarm bells in your head, but then you go through and confirm that every part of what is being said is accurate, then perhaps the alarm bells are not the problem.

These issues are brought up in every election cycle, albeit with less grandiose verbiage. For them to be concerns, in general, is not out of the ordinary. The interesting thing about this thread is that it won't have to live on as a hypothetical debate. In a few months, we'll get to see how this plays out and if the article's concerns come to fruition.

 

[Ayo]

The insistence on both-sidesing really impairs discussion because it doesn’t address important differences.

superficially it looks and sounds like an equitable approach, but operatively it’s letting this group or that group off the hook

personally I think we need more accountability not less

 

[Lapaz]

Attached is the Realclearpolitics current map with no toss up states.

Two things helping my sanity right now.

As nervous as I am, if this map were to play out he wouldn’t be able to cry foul. This is an absolute arse kicking. And no amount of QAnon and his sycophants nonsense would be able to push a meaningful narrative

Second, is the numbers behind this. Biden is consistently at or very close to 50% in all of the battlegrounds and the national average. Which means Trump will have to peel voters away not just win the undecideds. Hillary was always low 40’s with large undecideds that broke late for Trump. That isn’t the case now

RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map

2020 Electoral College Map

www.realclearpolitics.com

I want to see an electoral map without including mail-in votes, because Trump will not wait for the mail-in votes to be counted. Based on the indications that Democrats will vote in much higher percentages by mail, there is a high likelihood that Trump will appear to have won in a landslide. It wouldn't shock me for Trump to appear to have won almost every state based on in-person votes, and then lose almost every state after mail-ins are counted. The big danger is that Trump will do everything in his power to stop mail-in votes from being counted. Further, if some of his minions vote both by mail and in-person, then it will take a long time to clarify that mess.