Kyrsten Sinema Switches to Independent (2 Viewers)

[bdb13]

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it.

In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.

Provided that Sinema sticks to that vow, Democrats will still have a workable Senate majority in the next Congress, though it will not exactly be the neat and tidy 51 seats they assumed. They’re expected to also have the votes to control Senate committees. And Sinema’s move means Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — a pivotal swing vote in the 50-50 chamber the past two years — will hold onto some but not all of his outsized influence in the Democratic caucus.

Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate

The Arizona senator won't say whether she's running for reelection but said in an interview she doesn't expect a change in how the Senate operates.

www.politico.com

 

[Saintman2884]

It depends on the 'not caucusing' paradigm. Although that might just be semantics. Having 51 votes was critical because it would enable Dems to have a majority (versus an even split) on all Senate committees which makes it easier to push legislation (and, more critically, judicial nominations) through committee votes and on to floor votes where they will inevitably win. Not sure how it will work out now but if she expects to keep her committee assignments then she must, in some form, caucus with Dems to ensure the benefits I just mentioned. Otherwise I'd expect the Dems to tell her to go fork herself because they owe her nothing if she refuses to enable faster committee work.

In the grand scheme of things I think it's good to have true independents in the Senate but, at the same time, Sinema is merely an attention-seeker.

If we're going to accuse her of being a shallow attention-seeker, she's far from being the only one in D.C. guilty of that. Bernie is, if anything, more left-wing then most Dems and he likely views them as too moderate so his " independent" credentials seem a bit over-stated. Angus King, is infinitely more of a political independent than the "Bern" ever could be or try to portray himself as.

Sinema's actions are a warning to AZ Democrats not to fork with her and try to primary her in the 2024 elections which they've been threatening to do for years. Dems might also want to seriously consider telling her to fork off, too considering they only have really a 2-seat Senate advantage and who knows if there's a scheme McConnell might not dream up to make Sinema switch sides for good if Dems begin ignoring her and treating her with disdain because right now, for the next two years, they do need her to pass whatever legislation their likely to propose in the Senate.

 

[Saintman2884]

I heard a summation of what's wrong with Sinema long ago, and this move just reinforces it. She was super gifted as a kid. She graduated from college at 18. She has never really matured beyond needing to feel special, and the center of attention.

This is two years of look at me.

She's far from being the only politician in D.C. guilty of feeling their entitled, elitist or made to believe their interests are more important than most Americans. Joe Manchin did something very similar from 2021-22.

 

[J-DONK]

If we're going to accuse her of being a shallow attention-seeker, she's far from being the only one in D.C. guilty of that. Bernie is, if anything, more left-wing then most Dems and he likely views them as too moderate so his " independent" credentials seem a bit over-stated. Angus King, is infinitely more of a political independent than the "Bern" ever could be or try to portray himself as.

Sinema's actions are a warning to AZ Democrats not to fork with her and try to primary her in the 2024 elections which they've been threatening to do for years. Dems might also want to seriously consider telling her to fork off, too considering they only have really a 2-seat Senate advantage and who knows if there's a scheme McConnell might not dream up to make Sinema switch sides for good if Dems begin ignoring her and treating her with disdain because right now, for the next two years, they do need her to pass whatever legislation their likely to propose in the Senate.

You don't declare yourself as a independent to squelch a primary challenge. Sinema is more then likely done as a Senator. She has horrible favorability rating among Democrats, so that leaves independents, and Republicans to vote her in. Will Republicans let her run on their ticket? If not, it's over.

 

[J-DONK]

She's far from being the only politician in D.C. guilty of feeling their entitled, elitist or made to believe their interests are more important than most Americans. Joe Manchin did something very similar from 2021-22.

This is excuse making for a person who doesn't represent the people who elected her. Manchin is at least in a red state, and his actions make sense. Still, he is largely to the left of Sinema.

Let's take a walk down memory lane:

Sinema tells White House she’s opposed to current prescription drug plan

The Arizona Democrat joined Joe Manchin in giving the president a wake-up call on the reconciliation bill.

www.politico.com

How Wall Street wooed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and preserved its multibillion-dollar carried interest tax break

Wall Street lobbyists targeted Sen. Kyrsten Sinema to keep the carried interest loophole intact before the provision was dropped from the climate and tax bill.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Saintman2884]

You don't declare yourself as an independent to squelch a primary challenge. Sinema is more then likely done as a Senator. She has horribly favorability rating among Democrats, so that leaves independents, and Republicans to vote her in. Will Republicans let her run on their ticket? If not, it's over.

If she’s truly concerned about staying in power and remaining a Senator, then staying in the Democratic Party or even caucusing with them doesn’t bode well for her political survival long-term. So, becoming a Republican likely ensures her re-election chances and moderate Rep voters and independents will vote for her because she’s not some MAGA—Trump-styled politician.

And right now, even some diehard MAGA Trumpists are doubting their Dear Leader’s abilities or competency to win elections, because frankly, he’s a proven loser and most of his publicly-backed ideological candidates lost in the recent midterms, including the Georgia Senate runoff election on Tuesday.

 

[Saintman2884]

This is excuse making for a person who doesn't represent the people who elected her. Manchin is at least in a red state, and his actions make sense. Still, he is largely to the left of Sinema.

Let's take a walk down memory lane:

Sinema tells White House she’s opposed to current prescription drug plan

The Arizona Democrat joined Joe Manchin in giving the president a wake-up call on the reconciliation bill.

www.politico.com

How Wall Street wooed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and preserved its multibillion-dollar carried interest tax break

Wall Street lobbyists targeted Sen. Kyrsten Sinema to keep the carried interest loophole intact before the provision was dropped from the climate and tax bill.

www.cnbc.com

And there’s a more than decent chance that Manchin may lose in 2024 in a very-red socially conservative West Virginia. And Arizona isn’t exactly the Big Blue state some political analysts and commentators are now proclaiming it to be. If anything, it’s more akin to North Carolina in being a swing state where the right moderate Dems can win Governor, Senate races.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

If we're going to accuse her of being a shallow attention-seeker, she's far from being the only one in D.C. guilty of that. Bernie is, if anything, more left-wing then most Dems and he likely views them as too moderate so his " independent" credentials seem a bit over-stated. Angus King, is infinitely more of a political independent than the "Bern" ever could be or try to portray himself as.

Sinema's actions are a warning to AZ Democrats not to fork with her and try to primary her in the 2024 elections which they've been threatening to do for years. Dems might also want to seriously consider telling her to fork off, too considering they only have really a 2-seat Senate advantage and who knows if there's a scheme McConnell might not dream up to make Sinema switch sides for good if Dems begin ignoring her and treating her with disdain because right now, for the next two years, they do need her to pass whatever legislation their likely to propose in the Senate.

Sinema would not be reelected as a Republican. She would not even make it past the Republican primary. She has no leverage there.

 

[Lapaz]

This is definitely about 2024 and pretty much insures they'll be a run-off. This is her big fork you to the Arizona Democrats.

Arizona is a plurality state, not a majority state, so whoever gets the biggest percentage of the vote is the winner. So if Sinema runs as an independent, she may guarantee a Republican gets the seat, because she'll pull more votes from the democratic candidate than the republican candidate. I've heard that this may encourage Republicans to run a more right wing candidate, whereas in Arizona they would normally have to run someone closer to the center. If Sinema runs, it may force Democrats to concede the seat to her, rather than allowing a far right Republican to win the seat. It is a smart political move by Sinema.

 

[J-DONK]

And there’s a more than decent chance that Manchin may lose in 2024 in a very-red socially conservative West Virginia. And Arizona isn’t exactly the Big Blue state some political analysts and commentators are now proclaiming it to be. If anything, it’s more akin to North Carolina in being a swing state where the right moderate Dems can win Governor, Senate races.

Are you trying to gaslight me? Do you know who the other senator is for the state of Arizona?

 

[J-DONK]

Arizona is a plurality state, not a majority state, so whoever gets the biggest percentage of the vote is the winner. So if Sinema runs as an independent, she may guarantee a Republican gets the seat, because she'll pull more votes from the democratic candidate than the republican candidate. I've heard that this may encourage Republicans to run a more right wing candidate, whereas in Arizona they would normally have to run someone closer to the center. If Sinema runs, it may force Democrats to concede the seat to her, rather than allowing a far right Republican to win the seat. It is a smart political move by Sinema.

This is her latest polling:

A bipartisan poll by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research in September found that Sinema's favorable rating among Arizona Democrats was 37%. Her rating was 36% among Republicans and 41% among independents. Overall in the state, her favorable rating was 37%, with an unfavorable rating of 54%.

She isn't liked enough in the state to play spoiler to anyone. There is no devoted Sinema base in Arizona.

Sinema may try to run as a spoiler, but that's on brand for her. I don't know why the DNP would back down to an unpopular independent.

 

[Saintman2884]

Are you trying to gaslight me? Do you know who the other senator is for the state of Arizona?

Let’s not get too exaggerated, shall we? Mark Kelly is essentially moderate Dem type of politician and certainly not as liberal in the same vein as Schumer, Warren, or Sanders and Arizona is very much a swing state and if the RNC hadn’t endorsed some idiotic, embarrassing Trump-endorsed loud mouth fringe candidate who didn’t publicly tell moderate McCain moderates to “go to hell”, they likely would’ve stood a better chance at winning instead of the embarrassment that is Kari Lake.

 

[Saintman2884]

This is her latest polling:



She isn't liked enough in the state to play spoiler to anyone. There is no devoted Sinema base in Arizona.

Sinema may try to run as a spoiler, but that's on brand for her. I don't know why the DNP would back down to an unpopular independent.

Polls and popularity opinions from all different voting bases in a state can change, significantly very quickly and certainly be enough of a contributing factor two years from now.

A year and a half ago, before the fall of Kabul and Afghanistan debacle and the chaotic retreat and withdrawal of American diplomats, ex-pats and foreigners in the ensuing days, Biden’s popularity was close to if not over 60%. After that debacle, it fell below 50% and hasn’t recovered over that mark since then.

 

[SaulGoodmanEsq]

If Sinema runs, it may force Democrats to concede the seat to her, rather than allowing a far right Republican to win the seat. It is a smart political move by Sinema.

Exactly this. She has no other path to reelection. It is especially shrewd given how terrible the 2024 map is for Democrats in the Senate. And 2026 is no better with the only reasonable pick up being in North Carolina... but Beasley didn't really come that close in 2022 so even that is a long shot. Democrats have basically hit their peak of Senate seats at 50-52 and that's with the fortuity of strong performances in battleground states. Any dips in those and the GOP handily takes back the Senate.

 

[J-DONK]

Let’s not get too exaggerated, shall we? Mark Kelly is essentially moderate Dem type of politician and certainly not as liberal in the same vein as Schumer, Warren, or Sanders and Arizona is very much a swing state and if the RNC hadn’t endorsed some idiotic, embarrassing Trump-endorsed loud mouth fringe candidate who didn’t publicly tell moderate McCain moderates to “go to hell”, they likely would’ve stood a better chance at winning instead of the embarrassment that is Kari Lake.

Mark Kelly isn't holding up legislation for corporate interest. He is much farther left then Sinema. Who is now a independent. The only comparison being drawn was to Manchin. Her unfavourability ratings point towards her actions not being driven by some need to represent her base.

Also, Kari Lake may well be the Republican Senate candidate for Sinema's seat as well.

Polls and popularity opinions from all different voting bases in a state can change, significantly very quickly and certainly be enough of a contributing factor two years from now.

A year and a half ago, before the fall of Kabul and Afghanistan debacle and the chaotic retreat and withdrawal of American diplomats, ex-pats and foreigners in the ensuing days, Biden’s popularity was close to if not over 60%. After that debacle, it fell below 50% and hasn’t recovered over that mark since then.

Polls are more then likely what Sinema based this decision on. She is way behind every other Democrat in the state including her likely primary challengers. It's a desperate attempt to potentially play spoiler to Democrats in hopes they won't run a Democrat in the senate race.

She know she puts democrats in a horrible spot:

1. Potentially split vote between Sinema, and the Dem nominee.
2. Let a unpopular independent who regularly holds up key legislation run unopposed.

Neither of those are great options.

 

[MT15]

Word from AZ politicians that know Sinema is that she is brilliantly smart, graduated college at 18, but cannot abide any lack of attention paid to her. She has sold out her friends in the party years ago - for one example by moving into a district and running against a friend, then breaking her promise not to campaign negatively against him in the primary. After which she apologized and said she “had to” break their promise to each other or she would have lost. As if that excused it.

She evidently has alienated most of the people in the party who used to be her friends. They say she will do or say anything to advance her career. We’ve seen plenty of that from Rs sucking up to Trump - Haley comes to mind- so Sinema is the D version of someone like Haley.

 

[Saintman2884]

Word from AZ politicians that know Sinema is that she is brilliantly smart, graduated college at 18, but cannot abide any lack of attention paid to her. She has sold out her friends in the party years ago - for one example by moving into a district and running against a friend, then breaking her promise not to campaign negatively against him in the primary. After which she apologized and said she “had to” break their promise to each other or she would have lost. As if that excused it.

She evidently has alienated most of the people in the party who used to be her friends. They say she will do or say anything to advance her career. We’ve seen plenty of that from Rs sucking up to Trump - Haley comes to mind- so Sinema is the D version of someone like Haley.

Honestly, she doesn't sound too radically different from most "career-minded" politicians elected to office in D.C. They make promises and then they break them. Sinema just sounds like she's done it more often and is more shameless about being a political opportunist. Let's not be too niave about how cutthroat because ultimately the DNC wouldn't give two shirts about her anyway if she was a perennial, proven loser and had never won any major office(Senate, Governor). At least she can say she's been a forking senator who wins races unlike national Dems "talking heads" Beto O'Rourke, or Stacey Abrams. Abrams and O'Rourke might be good fundraisers, running other candidates elections and great at attracting exciting soundbites, but every single time they've run for major office...

They lose. Might be very close, might even forking be within 0.5-0.6 percentage points but you or they still forking lost, whether its in 2018, 2020, or 2022 for Governor, Senator or President. Why should Democratic lawmakers or strategists ever be willing to give them a decent chance again? Herschel Walker did better in terms of him receiving more percentage of the vote than both of them did in the original Nov. Midterm Senate election and the recent Dec. 6 run-off election. And he lost, technically, both times. If Ga. didn't have their convoluted 50% +1 asinine threshold for winning major elections, Raphael Warnock wouldn't have had to waste his time trying to convincingly win a second election that HE WON ANYWAY IN THE forkING FIRST PLACE.

At least politicos like Sinema and Haley can say at least got a chance to be at or sit at the table while others never got their foots in the door. Lets not pretend all of our heroes like Pelosi, Schumer or McConnell werent ruthless, didn't break campaign promises or vows, betray their own ethical codes or norms on occasion or deliberately, intentionally destroy friendships to get what they wanted or craved, sometimes. Thats the price many pay to achieve the ultimate heights of power and stay there for long periods of time. Idealists like Bobby Kennedy or even his more pragmatic brother, JFK, wouldn't and didn't last very long, refusing to play the game of partisan power politics. JFK, IMHO, was far better at it anyway honestly.

 

[Saintman2884]

Mark Kelly isn't holding up legislation for corporate interest. He is much farther left then Sinema. Who is now a independent. The only comparison being drawn was to Manchin. Her unfavourability ratings point towards her actions not being driven by some need to represent her base.

Also, Kari Lake may well be the Republican Senate candidate for Sinema's seat as well.



Polls are more then likely what Sinema based this decision on. She is way behind every other Democrat in the state including her likely primary challengers. It's a desperate attempt to potentially play spoiler to Democrats in hopes they won't run a Democrat in the senate race.

She know she puts democrats in a horrible spot:

1. Potentially split vote between Sinema, and the Dem nominee.
2. Let a unpopular independent who regularly holds up key legislation run unopposed.

Neither of those are great options.

Lake was Trump's pick who most national R's didn't really believe in or hold much hope out for but they reluctantly went along with it, just like recently in Ga. with Herschel Walker, because they had literally no other option. So, were those candidates REALLY WHO they really wanted? No. It would be like me having to coach a really good Pro-Bowl QB who wins enough to stay on the team for a while, but he won't be there forever, because he's not my guy and I never wanted him, in the first place. Just like Jeff Fisher/Vince Young scenario 15 years ago in Tennessee. Trump still has some of his grass roots base, but his hold on the party isn't as ironclad as 2-3 years ago simply because he can't forking win elections and Kari Lake is one of his biggest failures...

If they want to lose again, sure go ahead with an idiotic, clueless fringe loudmouth but if Trump holds less sway in 2024 then he does now, which is certainly possible, national RNC won't hedge their bets on a losing proposition.

 

[MT15]

Lake was Trump's pick who most national R's didn't really believe in or hold much hope out for but they reluctantly went along with it, just like recently in Ga. with Herschel Walker, because they had literally no other option. So, were those candidates REALLY WHO they really wanted? No. It would be like me having to coach a really good Pro-Bowl QB who wins enough to stay on the team for a while, but he won't be there forever, because he's not my guy and I never wanted him, in the first place. Just like Jeff Fisher/Vince Young scenario 15 years ago in Tennessee. Trump still has some of his grass roots base, but his hold on the party isn't as ironclad as 2-3 years ago simply because he can't forking win elections and Kari Lake is one of his biggest failures...

If they want to lose again, sure go ahead with an idiotic, clueless fringe loudmouth but if Trump holds less sway in 2024 then he does now, which is certainly possible, national RNC won't hedge their bets on a losing proposition.

They won their primaries, though.