How I think the 2020 presdential election will turnout (1 Viewer)

[LA - L.A.]

This is approximately how I expect the election to turn out. I'm basing it on the observation that the primary motivation for voting has become fear and anger. In each state, I made my guess as to which party and candidate would have the greatest amount of fear and anger directed at them and gave that party and candidate a loss in that state. My guesses are based on a lot of things that have already happened, are trending to happen, and few things that I expect to happen between now and election day. I expect very narrow margins of victories in the vast majority of states, so I don't expect the popular vote to be as lopsided as the electoral college totals indicate.

I liken this to looking at a sports team's schedule and penciling in expected wins and losses. I'm not arguing that this is definitely how it will turnout. I'm not saying or thinking I'm definitely right. If anyone insists that I'm definitely wrong, then I readily concede that I'm probably wrong. This is just how I think the election will more or less turnout. If anyone would like to take a stab at how they think it will turnout, this is the tool that I used to create the election map below.

The Road to 270: Interactive Electoral College maps

View CNN’s interactive and historic Electoral College maps to explore the votes needed to win the US presidential election.

www.cnn.com

 

[JRad]

I think Louisiana is closer than you'd think, but I'd be surprised with Biden taking the state. The governor's race really isn't far off from the presidential one. Rispone basically ran on "Trump's a cool guy" against a center (hell, center right) Democrat. I don't think the national race shakes out quite the same, but I can see where LA - L.A. is coming from here.

 

[BobE]

In 2016 I said Hillary would win in one of the biggest landslides ever. Ima sit this one out.

 

[The moose]

Florida has a staggering amount of ex felons eligible to vote.

About 1.5 million are able to vote and I am more than certain the vast majority are not gonna vote republican. The republicans are the ones that have blocked them. The republicans are the ones pushing for incarceration.

I think Florida is a huge win for Biden.

The rest all depends on the states that have carried his water like most states with republican leadership. It all depends on just how bad the coronavirus gets for them. The segments of the population that feel like they are a sacrifice for the economy are an easy flip.

Trump realistically just won by the skin of his dentures. I don't see it happening with out the hate for the other option.

 

[LA - L.A.]

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i hope you’re right.

But ever since 2016, i put zero stock in any poll or prediction, whether it be a guy on Saintsreport, or Nate Silver, or whatever... Right now i think it’s 50/50, the election could literally go either way.. Hell, it wouldnt surprise me if either Biden or Trump dropped dead in the next six months, or both.

I got distracted by another discussion and forgot about this one until I saw you quoted my post.

I'd be shocked if I got 90% of the states right. It's been one unexpected major event, situation, or revelation after another for the past several months. It makes trying to guess where we'll be as a society in November a real crap shoot.

I understand why everyone in the thread has the point of view that they have. My view is based on a more pessimistic belief of how some things are going to play out from now through November based on what has recently happened and what is currently happening.

 

[JRad]

don't see it happening with out the hate for the other option.

Or the apathy due to
-Hilary being zzzz
-Bernie people staying home
-“Trump doesn’t have a chance so I won’t bother”

Trump benefited from his base having the opposite - actual motivation to vote.

 

[DaveXA]

In 2016 I said Hillary would win in one of the biggest landslides ever. Ima sit this one out.

I didn’t think it'd be a landslide, but, up until a week before the election, I thought Hillary was a lock to win. Hillary lost that election as much as Trump won it though. Was always always baffled as to how they skipped over states that were lost by razor thin margins and she didn't go there at all.

That said, as it sits right now, Biden would win in a landslide. But peaking too soon can happen. I wouldn't count Trump out at all. People just get weird when they're in the voting booth.

 

[Ayo]

One of the things that I thought was interesting about the Tulsa rally was that the merch tables had anti-Liberal and anti-Democratic swag.

But they also sold a ton of anti-Hillary, anti-Clinton merch from what people were saying. No idea how true it is, but the photos suggested it.

There was no specifically anti-Biden swag. And when Trump took specific shots at Biden, it was a considerably more lackluster, unenthusiastic response compared to what he would get when he singled out Hillary.

I think the lack of a provocative "villain" is going to play a role, too.

 

[DaveXA]

One of the things that I thought was interesting about the Tulsa rally was that the merch tables had anti-Liberal and anti-Democratic swag.

But they also sold a ton of anti-Hillary, anti-Clinton merch from what people were saying. No idea how true it is, but the photos suggested it.

There was no specifically anti-Biden swag. And when Trump took specific shots at Biden, it was a considerably more lackluster, unenthusiastic response compared to what he would get when he singled out Hillary.

I think the lack of a provocative "villain" is going to play a role, too.

Well, I mean, Sleepy Joe kinda feeds into that lack of enthusiasm.

I still think Biden picked the wrong election to run. Had he run in 2016, he would have won and we'd be having a much different discussion now. I get why he didn't though.

This isn't the thread for it, and probably unrealistic, but I want Mark Cuban to run. I'd vote for him over Biden/Trump every day of the week.

 

[Saintamaniac]

I didn’t think it'd be a landslide, but, up until a week before the election, I thought Hillary was a lock to win. Hillary lost that election as much as Trump won it though. Was always always baffled as to how they skipped over states that were lost by razor thin margins and she didn't go there at all.

I think that Comey coming out with that statement pretty much doomed the Clinton campaign. I think that in spite of the laziness by the campaign, Clinton would have won but by a narrower margin than she thought. The Clinton campaign was a classic demonstration of why you don't take any vote for granted. While I put all the blame for Trump being corrupt on trump, I still blame the Clinton campaign for trump being president.

 

[bdb13]

I've seen a Biden ad now several times that features parts of his George Floyd speech. I don't think it can be overstated just how bad Hillary was at connecting with people and seeming authentic last go 'round. It's all antithetical to her nature, and came across as forced and phony when she tried. When Biden is on, like he was with the George Floyd speech, he's very good at connecting and coming across authentic.

Half this shirt is still a personality contest, and Biden's much more suited for that than Hillary ever was.

 

[The moose]

Or the apathy due to
-Hilary being zzzz
-Bernie people staying home
-“Trump doesn’t have a chance so I won’t bother”

Trump benefited from his base having the opposite - actual motivation to vote.

I will agree he had a motivated base.

The only problem with that he has not gained any base and electrified other segments to historical levels.

The African American vote was really missing the numbers last go around and it is arguable that if even a tiny percent of them bothered showing up trump would have lost. It certainly is motivated to show up in crazy numbers for this one. I am more than certain the turn out of minorities will be a historical number.

His only shot is voter suppression this go around realistically. I can't see him hitting a home run at the bottom of the ninth.

 

[DaveXA]

I've seen a Biden ad now several times that features parts of his George Floyd speech. I don't think it can be overstated just how bad Hillary was at connecting with people and seeming authentic last go 'round. It's all antithetical to her nature, and came across as forced and phony when she tried. When Biden is on, like he was with the George Floyd speech, he's very good at connecting and coming across authentic.

Half this shirt is still a personality contest, and Biden's much more suited for that than Hillary ever was.

While I agree, he's backed himself into a corner on a few issues that I think Trump will hammer hard at. I think the debates and format will be pivotal. I'm really curious to see Biden's approach with Trump. His Democrat debate performances wasn't exactly great and he'd have to improve a lot to really get voters motivated to do their part.

We'll see.

 

[bdb13]

While I agree, he's backed himself into a corner on a few issues that I think Trump will hammer hard at. I think the debates and format will be pivotal. I'm really curious to see Biden's approach with Trump. His Democrat debate performances wasn't exactly great and he'd have to improve a lot to really get voters motivated to do their part.

We'll see.

Oh yeah no doubt, I'm not at all saying it's a given that Biden is going to win and like last time I won't feel comfortable until I see that Trump has been defeated.. but I'm confident that even with the hits that are going to be coming Biden's way, he's a stronger candidate than what Trump faced four years ago and Trump is a candidate plagued by issues he didn't have four years ago.

Cautious optimism for sure.

 

[The moose]

Well, I mean, Sleepy Joe kinda feeds into that lack of enthusiasm.

I still think Biden picked the wrong election to run. Had he run in 2016, he would have won and we'd be having a much different discussion now. I get why he didn't though.

This isn't the thread for it, and probably unrealistic, but I want Mark Cuban to run. I'd vote for him over Biden/Trump every day of the week.

Really Cuban?

I will agree he has been smart and employed people that invented stuff that he sold and made him filthy rich.

The sale of broadcast.com was friggin crazy. Yahoo grossly overpaid for a company that was loosing millions just for the numbers he had in traffic that could then be counted in the battle to get back to number one search engine battle.

The numbers were crazy and killed Yahoo. I know I read that it was close to 10k per user they got for a free site. Insane. Especially when they went public the value was only like 300 million nowhere near the over 5 billion he got.

I like him as a person kinda. I would never want anyone like him in charge of our country.

Or do you think he could fix the country with a dot-com scam he ran on Yahoo?

 

[DaveXA]

Really Cuban?

I will agree he has been smart and employed people that invented stuff that he sold and made him filthy rich.

The sale of broadcast.com was friggin crazy. Yahoo grossly overpaid for a company that was loosing millions just for the numbers he had in traffic that could then be counted in the battle to get back to number one search engine battle.

The numbers were crazy and killed Yahoo. I know I read that it was close to 10k per user they got for a free site. Insane. Especially when they went public the value was only like 300 million nowhere near the over 5 billion he got.

I like him as a person kinda. I would never want anyone like him in charge of our country.

Or do you think he could fix the country with a dot-com scam he ran on Yahoo?

No, bit I've watched a lot of his interviews over the last 3 months or so and he's acquitted himself well every time and just about everything he's discussed has made a lot of sense to me. He's definitely talking better solutions than either Trump or Biden have offered regarding Covid-19, the economy, social issues and such. And he doesn't sweat the small stuff.

I just feel like he would be a better option than either of the 2 running currently. A lot of people don't care for him because of his brash reputation as the Mav's owner, but when you set that aside, there's a lot to like about the guy.

The Yahoo deal was entirely Yahoo's fault. They didn't do their due diligence, and paid for it. Yahoo hasn't ever been the standard for running a business well.

 

[Booker]

I've seen a Biden ad now several times that features parts of his George Floyd speech. I don't think it can be overstated just how bad Hillary was at connecting with people and seeming authentic last go 'round. It's all antithetical to her nature, and came across as forced and phony when she tried. When Biden is on, like he was with the George Floyd speech, he's very good at connecting and coming across authentic.

Half this shirt is still a personality contest, and Biden's much more suited for that than Hillary ever was.

I agree. Biden just has to show he's a human being and his empathy is authentic and he'll come across better than Hillary ever could. As far as the debates go he would be well served to make an early statement along the lines of "America is sick of the lies, the mud slinging and the name calling," and then just pretty much ignore Trump, or respond to him by saying "I won't respond to lies and name calling."

 

[JRad]

I think that Comey coming out with that statement pretty much doomed the Clinton campaign. I think that in spite of the laziness by the campaign, Clinton would have won but by a narrower margin than she thought. The Clinton campaign was a classic demonstration of why you don't take any vote for granted. While I put all the blame for Trump being corrupt on trump, I still blame the Clinton campaign for trump being president.

Clinton's 2016 campaign is a big lesson in hubris, that's for sure.

I will agree he had a motivated base.

The only problem with that he has not gained any base and electrified other segments to historical levels.

The African American vote was really missing the numbers last go around and it is arguable that if even a tiny percent of them bothered showing up trump would have lost. It certainly is motivated to show up in crazy numbers for this one. I am more than certain the turn out of minorities will be a historical number.

His only shot is voter suppression this go around realistically. I can't see him hitting a home run at the bottom of the ninth.

I actually almost posted the same. Trump's been mobilizing the African American and younger voters, neither of which tend to lean Republican.

 

[Saintamaniac]

While I agree, he's backed himself into a corner on a few issues that I think Trump will hammer hard at. I think the debates and format will be pivotal.

There's no longer such a thing as a politician backing him/her self into a corner. That stopped being true in 2016. The debates will be a joke because Trump's plan for debates is his plan for everything else; lie, lie, lie and when cornered, lie again. Biden simply has to commit to memory some of the most blatant lies and the consequences from over the last 3 years and bring them up during the debate. And if that fails, he can just lie just like Trump.