Harris for President Thread (2 Viewers)

[MT15]

We can use this for just general Harris talk - related to schedule, crowd sizes, interviews and such. Things that don’t fit in the economic thread or in the general election thread.

I just saw this: a packed house in Savannah, GA. Around 7-9k people came out in the rain and waited in line. Another 80k were watching it live online at one point - just on the campaign YouTube account. That’s a lot of enthusiasm, in a red part of GA.

 

[Optimus Prime]

In 2019, in her first campaign for president, then-Sen. Kamala Harris called for “some form of reparations” for Black Americans and threw her support behind legislation to study the issue of repayment for historic wrongs.

Since then, spurred by the 2020 murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police, the reparations movement has notched victories across the country, including some in the Democrat’s home state of California.

Reparations advocates say Harris’s past comments and her new position as the first Black and Asian American woman to head a presidential ticket give them renewed hope that the movement to provide recompense for Black Americans for decades of discrimination could gain new, national traction.

“We have a Black woman with a lived experience and a heart for the Black community,” said Robin Rue Simmons, a former alderman in the Chicago suburb of Evanston, Ill., who pushed a program that provides qualifying Black residents with $25,000 to address the city’s history of housing discrimination. “I believe that Vice President Kamala Harris is the leader to advance this conversation at the federal level.”

But how Harris feels now, five years after expressing support in her first presidential campaign, how high the issue rests in her priorities and what impact that may have on the coalition of voters she must assemble to defeat Republican Donald Trump remains a mystery.

Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris’s campaign, speaking for her, has rejected her 2019 opposition to fracking, the practice of extracting natural gas that is popular in vote-heavy Pennsylvania, her past support of a single payer health care program and her more liberal proposals on immigration.

The Harris campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment on her current position on reparations.

Some Harris allies argue that support for reparations could help her attract Black voters who have been swayed somewhat by Trump’s economic message.

“There are people who support this and would be more politically engaged if this were a part of our political discourse,” Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) said in an interview before Harris accepted the nomination. “But it isn’t, so they’re staying home or some are even moving to the Republican Party because it feels like Democrats are taking Black voters for granted.”
Yet even some advocates worry that a forceful call for reparations could alienate more voters than it energizes.

While Democratic cities and states have pushed for reparations, the programs still face stiff political headwinds nationally. Just about a quarter of Americans support the federal government paying reparations to the descendants of enslaved Black Americans, according to a 2023 Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

The poll found large racial gaps in support for reparations. While 75 percent of Black Americans support federal reparations, only 15 percent of White Americans and 36 percent of Hispanic Americans agree. That has made some leery of Harris making the issue part of her argument for the presidency.............

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/09/03/kamala-harris-reparations/

 

[MT15]

More shade toward Silver.

 

[Nebaghead]

More shade toward Silver.

Even Nate says in his updates to take the model with a grain of salt because he is intentionally clipping Harris’s numbers because the model is using the convention bounce. That will fade this week and if her numbers stay steady then her odds go up.

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Even Nate says in his updates to take the model with a grain of salt because he is intentionally clipping Harris’s numbers because the model is using the convention bounce. That will fade this week and if her numbers stay steady then her odds go up.

What convention bounce? I thought most of the polls said she didn't get one.

 

[Optimus Prime]

What convention bounce? I thought most of the polls said she didn't get one.

Everything I saw said the bounce came from when she replaced Biden and again when she picked Walz

Also said that post convention bounces are becoming more rare, forget the reasons (or speculation) why that was

 

[Nebaghead]

What convention bounce? I thought most of the polls said she didn't get one.

His model essentially subtracts 2 points for the convention bounce for 2 weeks after a convention. Historically anything less than 2 points fades 2 weeks after a convention. Since there wasn’t a bounce, that 2 point adjustment lowers her odds. That will change this week as his model drops that adjustment.

 

[MT15]

His model essentially subtracts 2 points for the convention bounce for 2 weeks after a convention. Historically anything less than 2 points fades 2 weeks after a convention. Since there wasn’t a bounce, that 2 point adjustment lowers her odds. That will change this week as his model drops that adjustment.

So he is deducting for an effect that didn’t happen? That doesn’t seem like sound judgement from Silver.

I read also that the post-convention bounce didn’t happen in 2020 either.

 

[Dragon]

There are tons of them.. Very easily identified in most cases.

 

[Nebaghead]

So he is deducting for an effect that didn’t happen? That doesn’t seem like sound judgement from Silver.

I read also that the post-convention bounce didn’t happen in 2020 either.

It has been sound for the last couple of elections. He always adjusts the week of the convention and two weeks after. Anything under 2 points will go away typically after the convention. This year was different with the excitement generating before the DNC. What his model has shown is no drop off in the polls following the DNC so now that effect will be removed and her numbers will creep back up.
The model adjustment doesn’t care about what actually happened but what has happened historically. He doesn’t watch the bump but modeled it out based on historical analysis. Just like average computer price models would probably adjust out Black Friday sales since those are not normal but the sales running up to Christmas should be included because they aren’t way outside the norm.

 

[SamAndreas]

Saw this - just an FYI on PA polling.

That kind of describes my opinion of the state of current polling.

I think Harris is winning, and having the, the, the, (cough), polls kind of agreeing with my assessment that she is winning is nice.

However polls like those showing she is winning wouldn't on their own be a reasonable cause for me to think that she is winning.

 

[MT15]

It has been sound for the last couple of elections. He always adjusts the week of the convention and two weeks after. Anything under 2 points will go away typically after the convention. This year was different with the excitement generating before the DNC. What his model has shown is no drop off in the polls following the DNC so now that effect will be removed and her numbers will creep back up.
The model adjustment doesn’t care about what actually happened but what has happened historically. He doesn’t watch the bump but modeled it out based on historical analysis. Just like average computer price models would probably adjust out Black Friday sales since those are not normal but the sales running up to Christmas should be included because they aren’t way outside the norm.

The polling people I’m reading said there wasn’t a post convention bounce in 2020 either. So it hasn’t been relevant now for the second presidential race in a row. Once patterns change you need to adjust.

Silver is suspect to me, so I don’t give him the benefit of any doubts. I think he messes with his model to a degree that calls his neutrality into question. Jmo.

 

[Nebaghead]

The polling people I’m reading said there wasn’t a post convention bounce in 2020 either. So it hasn’t been relevant now for the second presidential race in a row. Once patterns change you need to adjust.

Silver is suspect to me, so I don’t give him the benefit of any doubts. I think he messes with his model to a degree that calls his neutrality into question. Jmo.

Models are slow moving. You can’t just exclude it. It isn’t a trend when it happens once. My guess is the next model (2028) is going to reduce convention bounce adjustments. He also called out a bunch of Covid factors were removed from the previous model. 538 is still using a large part of his original model.

His model is sound, there are a lot more factors he calculates similar to 538. He doesn’t just go by state polls but also factors national polls, economic indicators, incumbency metrics. He also weighs polls by accuracy or what they tend to lean. He announced yesterday they were going to remove ActiVote since it doesn’t require location. He was in London and was able to tell them he was a Texas resident without any kind of verification.

What do you mean call his neutrality into issue?

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Silver is suspect to me, so I don’t give him the benefit of any doubts.

I used to be a big fan... listened to his podcasts and everything. But I've been suspect for a minute now.

 

[Taurus]

In 2019, in her first campaign for president, then-Sen. Kamala Harris called for “some form of reparations” for Black Americans and threw her support behind legislation to study the issue of repayment for historic wrongs.

Since then, spurred by the 2020 murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police, the reparations movement has notched victories across the country, including some in the Democrat’s home state of California.

Reparations advocates say Harris’s past comments and her new position as the first Black and Asian American woman to head a presidential ticket give them renewed hope that the movement to provide recompense for Black Americans for decades of discrimination could gain new, national traction.

“We have a Black woman with a lived experience and a heart for the Black community,” said Robin Rue Simmons, a former alderman in the Chicago suburb of Evanston, Ill., who pushed a program that provides qualifying Black residents with $25,000 to address the city’s history of housing discrimination. “I believe that Vice President Kamala Harris is the leader to advance this conversation at the federal level.”

But how Harris feels now, five years after expressing support in her first presidential campaign, how high the issue rests in her priorities and what impact that may have on the coalition of voters she must assemble to defeat Republican Donald Trump remains a mystery.

Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris’s campaign, speaking for her, has rejected her 2019 opposition to fracking, the practice of extracting natural gas that is popular in vote-heavy Pennsylvania, her past support of a single payer health care program and her more liberal proposals on immigration.

The Harris campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment on her current position on reparations.

Some Harris allies argue that support for reparations could help her attract Black voters who have been swayed somewhat by Trump’s economic message.

“There are people who support this and would be more politically engaged if this were a part of our political discourse,” Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) said in an interview before Harris accepted the nomination. “But it isn’t, so they’re staying home or some are even moving to the Republican Party because it feels like Democrats are taking Black voters for granted.”
Yet even some advocates worry that a forceful call for reparations could alienate more voters than it energizes.

While Democratic cities and states have pushed for reparations, the programs still face stiff political headwinds nationally. Just about a quarter of Americans support the federal government paying reparations to the descendants of enslaved Black Americans, according to a 2023 Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

The poll found large racial gaps in support for reparations. While 75 percent of Black Americans support federal reparations, only 15 percent of White Americans and 36 percent of Hispanic Americans agree. That has made some leery of Harris making the issue part of her argument for the presidency.............

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/09/03/kamala-harris-reparations/

Until blacks are more than 16% of the population, reparations is not only dead in the water, it's toxic.

 

[MT15]

Models are slow moving. You can’t just exclude it. It isn’t a trend when it happens once. My guess is the next model (2028) is going to reduce convention bounce adjustments. He also called out a bunch of Covid factors were removed from the previous model. 538 is still using a large part of his original model.

His model is sound, there are a lot more factors he calculates similar to 538. He doesn’t just go by state polls but also factors national polls, economic indicators, incumbency metrics. He also weighs polls by accuracy or what they tend to lean. He announced yesterday they were going to remove ActiVote since it doesn’t require location. He was in London and was able to tell them he was a Texas resident without any kind of verification.

What do you mean call his neutrality into issue?

He’s decidedly pro-Trump IMO. Not a neutral person.

 

[MT15]

He announced yesterday they were going to remove ActiVote since it doesn’t require location.

He did that because people online had called him out for including them. I doubt it’s the only one of those internet “polls” that doesn’t check location, it just happens to be the one he got chided for including.

 

[Nebaghead]

He’s decidedly pro-Trump IMO. Not a neutral person.

I have never gotten a pro-trump vibe from him. When he was with 538 the pod casts were very left leaning. He is just a numbers guy. He also is trying to avoid what happen with Hillary when his model gave her a 71 out of 100 chance of winning. He is always trying to account for the unknown vote. Even the last polls from 2020 had Biden with a larger lead than the actual, with the exception of national polls.

He is more about being right than favoring one candidate over another.

 

[Nebaghead]

Here is his latest update.

Last update: 12:15 p.m., Tuesday, September 3: Not much polling over the past 48 hours, and we suspect the next couple of days will be slow too as pollsters may have been reluctant to conduct surveys over the holiday weekend. But probably more activity toward the end of the week as pollsters look to establish a pre-debate baseline.

If Kamala Harris is able to hold her current numbers, she’ll eventually begin to rise in the forecast again as the convention bounce adjustment gradually wears off. But there isn’t any guarantee of that — and there isn’t much change in either direction with today’s update. For a long explanation of how all of this works, see here.

In other news, as of today’s update, the Silver Bulletin model is no longer using polls from ActiVote. The firm didn’t do anything wrong per se, but the polling they’re publishing, based on an opt-in panel that doesn’t take any steps to verify users’ identity or location and which doesn’t even make clear to respondents that they’re taking a political survey, pretty clearly doesn’t meet our standards for scientific polling. ActiVote didn’t have a strong house effect, so this doesn’t particularly tend to help either Harris or Trump.