Bipartisan Infrastructure/3.5T Reconciliation/Gov Funding/Debt Ceiling (2 Viewers)

[coldseat]

Thought it would be good to have a place to discuss all the drama on Capitol Hill and whether Democrats will get any of this signed. Given that Republican have abandoned any responsibility of doing anything for the good of country it's on Dems to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling. But as with the reconciliation bill, moderates are opposing this.

I'm really trying hard to understand why Manchin and Sinema are making the reconciliation bill process so difficult and how they think that benefits them? As far as I can see, all it's doing is raising the ire of the majority of democrats towards them. It's been well known for a long time now that both the Infrastructure bill and reconciliation bill were tied together. They worked so hard to get and "Bipartisan" Infrastructure bill together (because it was oh so important to them to work together) and passed in the Senate, but now want to slow drag and bulk on the reconciliation bill (by not being able to negotiate with members of their own party)? There by, Putting both bills passage at risk and tanking both the Biden agenda and any hope of winning Congress in 2022? Make it make sense!

I suspect they'll get it done in the end because the implication of failure are really bad. But why make it so dysfunctional?

The drama and diplomacy are set to intensify over the next 24 hours, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) scrambles to keep her fractious, narrow majority intact and send the first of two major economic initiatives to Biden’s desk. In a sign of the stakes, the president even canceled a planned Wednesday trip to Chicago so that he could stay in Washington and attempt to spare his agenda from collapse.
Democrats generally support the infrastructure package, which proposes major new investments in the country’s aging roads, bridges, pipes, ports and Internet connections. But the bill has become a critical political bargaining chip for liberal-leaning lawmakers, who have threatened to scuttle it to preserve the breadth of a second, roughly $3.5 trillion economic package.
What is in and out of the bipartisan infrastructure bill?
That latter proposal aims to expand Medicare, invest new sums to combat climate change, offer free prekindergarten and community college to all students and extend new aid to low-income families — all financed through taxes increases on wealthy Americans and corporations. Liberals fear it is likely to be slashed in scope dramatically by moderates, including Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), unless they hold up the infrastructure package the duo helped negotiate — leading to the stalemate that plagues the party on the eve of the House vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/09/29/biden-pelosi-democrats-infrastructure/

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

I suggest he get reminded of the poll results in his state that are in full support of the bill(s) and have AOC give a speech calling him out as a corporate stooge. Followed by a private conversation indicating the President might also give such a speech if he doesn't fall in line.

Not only that, the United Mine Workers of America also stated in December that they support the BBB bill. The excuses for Manchin ended a long time ago.

 

[J-DONK]

If nothing happens by MLK Day on Jan 17th, then it's over.

I think it's possible that both Manchin and Sinema will vote Yes to change the filibuster rules and vote for the voting rights bill(s) if a vote occurs on the Senate floor during the next 9 - 10 days. The pressure on both of them is overwhelming, even more so than for the BBB bill.

Manchin knows that Senate Republicans completely ignored his proposed voting rights bill a few months ago. The Republicans wouldn't even agree to vote on the bill after he negotiated with them in good faith. He got played by the Republicans and they made him look pretty foolish. That can't sit well with him.

I don't think much is going to happen. I have a very dim view of all this. I think the administration tried to apply some pressure, and that's when he floated leaving the party. My personal opinion is that's the current situation. It's the reason why Kamala isn't pushing him by going directly to WV again. Manchin is essentially a Reagan era Republican right down the welfare queen ideology.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm only holding out hope that we see some movement on student loans, and weed via executive action closer to the midterms. That's it.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

I don't think much is going to happen. I have a very dim view of all this. I think the administration tried to apply some pressure, and that's when he floated leaving the party. My personal opinion is that's the current situation. It's the reason why Kamala isn't pushing him by going directly to WV again. Manchin is essentially a Reagan era Republican right down the welfare queen ideology.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm only holding out hope that we see some movement on student loans, and weed via executive action closer to the midterms. That's it.

You may very well be right regarding the filibuster and voting rights bill. I just have to maintain hope for a few more days, the alternative is just too depressing.

 

[Taurus]

You may very well be right regarding the filibuster and voting rights bill. I just have to maintain hope for a few more days, the alternative is just too depressing.

Surely even a corporate whor...stooge, like Manchin has to realize that accomplishing diddlysquat isn't a winning platform.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

Surely even a corporate whor...stooge, like Manchin has to realize that accomplishing diddlysquat isn't a winning platform.

And Manchin also must realize that he won't be able to accomplish anything in the future if he has no chance of ever winning an election as a Democrat in West Virginia again. Because he won't be able to win again without voting protections.

Manchin has a golden opportunity to be a hero. It will be hard for him to pass it up.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Pressure is building
==============
For months, Sen. Joe Manchin III has sold his opposition to the Build Back Better proposal as driven uniformly by a brave and hardheaded assessment of the national interest.

He has warned that BBB will fuel inflation and that its climate provisions will push energy markets to evolve too quickly and lead to a dangerous dependence on Chinese supply chains.


It just got harder for the West Virginia Democrat to get away with this stance. And the culprit is none other than coal miners in his home state, whose union is redoubling calls for Manchin to support President Biden’s agenda.


What’s happening now with miners seems like a seminal moment. Some of the worst tropes in our politics — Democrats harbor nothing but elitist ill will toward miners, and miners’ “way of life” must be defended at all costs — are cracking up and falling away.


All this emerges from a new report in the New York Times that illustrates the true nature of home-state cross-pressures on Manchin. He’s caught between the miners union and mine owners, who vehemently oppose BBB.

The United Mine Workers of America backs BBB because it will help mine workers transition to a future they now see as inevitable. BBB contains tax incentives to spur manufacturing and consumption of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar, to hasten our transition to a decarbonized economy.

Crucially, some of those tax incentives would steer some of this renewable manufacturing to coal-producing regions, to smooth the transition for workers away from fossil-fuel toil. Miners also support BBB because it would replenish a fund that aids miners suffering from black lung disease.

But here’s the rub: The mine owners oppose the tax incentives. Apparently, this is precisely because they would speed the transition to clean energy sources, which is bad for the coal business.

A ‘real future’ for miners
The owners aren’t shy about advertising this. The president of the West Virginia Coal Association, which represents the owners, tells the Times that the union is “waving a white flag” by supporting tax incentives, meaning they’re surrendering to coal’s inevitable demise.

“We would have thought they’d go down swinging,” the mine owners’ representative tells the Times. He says it’s folly to trade away “fossil energy jobs” for renewable ones, because the former are “extremely well paid and carry benefits.”……..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/10/manchin-bbb-coal-miners-vs-owners/

 

[Optimus Prime]

Guess this can go here
==================
CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — For the first time in half a year, families on Friday are going without a monthly deposit from the child tax credit — a program that was intended to be part of President Joe Biden’s legacy but has emerged instead as a flash point over who is worthy of government support.

Retiree Andy Roberts, from St. Albans, West Virginia, relied on the checks to help raise his two young grandchildren, whom he and his wife adopted because the birth parents are recovering from drug addiction.

The Robertses are now out $550 a month. That money helped pay for Girl Scouts, ballet and acting lessons and kids’ shoes, which Roberts noted are more expensive than adult shoes. The tax credit, he said, was a “godsend.”

“It’ll make you tighten up your belt, if you’ve got anything to tighten,” Roberts said about losing the payments……..

Goodbye 'godsend': Expiration of child tax credits hits home

For the first time in half a year, families on Friday are going without a monthly deposit from the child tax credit — a program that was intended to be part of President Joe Biden's legacy but has emerged instead as a flash point over who is worthy of government support.

apnews.com

 

[SamAndreas]

I think I saw movement, the bill appears to be alive!!!

Here's what I saw:

Democrats fail to change Senate rules to pass voting rights bill

The failed votes underscore Democrats' uphill battle to pass sweeping legislation.

www.axios.com

Democrats failed Wednesday night to change Senate filibuster rules to pass the voting rights bill, with Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) voting with Republicans.

That up until now was necessity had not been dealt with, Senators Manchin and Sinema did not until tonight have sufficient job security to give them a fighting chance to be re-elected, now that has been assured Build Back Better if pared back bill can now be contemplated by Senators Manchin and Sinema.

I know it looks backwards but it isn't what it seems. They had to do something to give those two Senators something that would impress their red state's voters. Giving them a opportunity to oppose getting rid of the filibuster with all the Republicans cheering them on was a stroke genius insofar as our Democratic Senate leadership.

Now they can renew efforts to move on Build Back Better because that log jamb of necessity has been removed. My guess, and it's just a guess is that now they might be able to get about one trillion of Build Back Better to pass. Now Manchin and Sinema have enough wiggle room to support it and still survive assuming that it is paired back to 1 to 1.5 trillion tops.

That's still a heaping bunch. Biden thinks so, I just watched his two hour press conference. Biden was real upbeat about "large chunks" being on the table.

He's optimistic, why shouldn't I be. I regard this a serendipitous break through. And a neat political illusion insofar as what looks like bad news was actually good news.

As it goes for the actual vote there never was a chance for it to pass anyway. It was high stakes political drama which was cast on the side using what was lying around. It was thrilling to watch, and it was not engineered to be bemoaned over with crumbled hope cookies and spilled milk.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Guess this can go here
==================
The contempt was sincere when Sen. Bernie Sanders took the airwaves last weekend to voice a common frustration in the Senate’s Kennedy Caucus Room: Sen. Joe Manchin was an unreliable negotiator who had double-crossed Democrats once again.

“The problem was that we continue to talk to Manchin like he was serious. He was not,” he told ABC’s This Week. In a Senate famed for its comity, this was the equivalent of unleashing an airhorn inside an oboe recital.

There’s one problem with this rage. Manchin has always been a proud fly in the legislative ointment, an unrepentant naysayer to party orthodoxy who is not worried about his relationships in the Capitol. And that’s why he will probably be the last statewide elected Democrat to represent West Virginia for a long time: he values his constituents’ contempt of Washington far more than he fears his colleagues’ contempt of him.

And when it comes to President Joe Biden’s frustrations with Manchin’s singular and capricious veto-proof whimsy, Manchin truly cannot be bothered. Voters in West Virginia prize Manchin’s perceived indifference to party politics, and Manchin likes to serve them a skillet of stick-it-to-the-man every chance he gets.

Manchin had committed in private last year to supporting the parts of the second iteration of Biden’s Build Back Better plan with plenty of strings attached. Manchin didn’t like parts of the first one, but promised to like the second one—that is until the sequel also ran afoul of his need to scuttle huge swaths of Democrats’ agenda, such as a tax hike on the wealthy.

So Manchin pivoted, and tried a third time to outline what he could accept, and Democrats acquiesced. And then, again, the proposal ran aground of the SS Manchin’s norms because, in his mind, more government spending would only hasten inflation............

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Taurus]

Guess this can go here
==================
The contempt was sincere when Sen. Bernie Sanders took the airwaves last weekend to voice a common frustration in the Senate’s Kennedy Caucus Room: Sen. Joe Manchin was an unreliable negotiator who had double-crossed Democrats once again.

“The problem was that we continue to talk to Manchin like he was serious. He was not,” he told ABC’s This Week. In a Senate famed for its comity, this was the equivalent of unleashing an airhorn inside an oboe recital.

There’s one problem with this rage. Manchin has always been a proud fly in the legislative ointment, an unrepentant naysayer to party orthodoxy who is not worried about his relationships in the Capitol. And that’s why he will probably be the last statewide elected Democrat to represent West Virginia for a long time: he values his constituents’ contempt of Washington far more than he fears his colleagues’ contempt of him.

And when it comes to President Joe Biden’s frustrations with Manchin’s singular and capricious veto-proof whimsy, Manchin truly cannot be bothered. Voters in West Virginia prize Manchin’s perceived indifference to party politics, and Manchin likes to serve them a skillet of stick-it-to-the-man every chance he gets.

Manchin had committed in private last year to supporting the parts of the second iteration of Biden’s Build Back Better plan with plenty of strings attached. Manchin didn’t like parts of the first one, but promised to like the second one—that is until the sequel also ran afoul of his need to scuttle huge swaths of Democrats’ agenda, such as a tax hike on the wealthy.

So Manchin pivoted, and tried a third time to outline what he could accept, and Democrats acquiesced. And then, again, the proposal ran aground of the SS Manchin’s norms because, in his mind, more government spending would only hasten inflation............

MSN

www.msn.com

Because they won't primary him.
At this point an open Republican might be preferable.
Except I do think Manchin has been a reliable vote for confirming judges, so there's that.

 

[samiam5211]

People acting like they want to throw Manchin out of the party should be careful.

Sure, he's not a reliable vote, but the majority is valuable just in the power it is granted in controlling the flow of congress.

You aren't getting another democrat elected in West Virginia. Manchin may be the most valuable democrat in the senate.

 

[coldseat]

People acting like they want to throw Manchin out of the party should be careful.

Sure, he's not a reliable vote, but the majority is valuable just in the power it is granted in controlling the flow of congress.

You aren't getting another democrat elected in West Virginia. Manchin may be the most valuable democrat in the senate.

I don't think they need to throw him out, but Democrats need to make the case for at least 2 more Senators so that Manchin doesn't control the whole congressional agenda they way he has, thereby making him less relevant. With whatever due respect that West Virginia deserves, we don't need a Senator from West Virginia as the most powerful person in the Senate any more than we need Senator from Kentucky as the most powerful person in the Senate.

 

[samiam5211]

I don't think they need to throw him out, but Democrats need to make the case for at least 2 more Senators so that Manchin doesn't control the whole congressional agenda they way he has, thereby making him less relevant. With whatever due respect that West Virginia deserves, we don't need a Senator from West Virginia as the most powerful person in the Senate any more than we need Senator from Kentucky as the most powerful person in the Senate.

Yea, i agree. If the Dems had 54 in the senate this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but they aren't going to get another one in West Virginia.

Hating on Manchin isn't going to help them get a bigger majority though. It doesn't serve any purpose at all to hate on Manchin, at least not publicly.

 

[bdb13]

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Wednesday said they had struck a climate, health and tax package deal — weeks after Manchin seemingly had scuttled any chance of an agreement because of his worries over inflation.

The new package is a fraction of the more than $3 trillion deal once envisioned by liberal Democrats, but it still could give the party a big win ahead of midterm elections where the House and Senate majorities are on the line.

The deal will be part of the budget reconciliation package that Senate Democrats plan to bring to the floor next week and pass on a party-line vote, circumventing a Republican filibuster under special Senate rules.

It would invest $369 billion in energy climate programs over the next 10 years and $300 billion to reduce the deficit. It would be added to legislation to lower prescription drug prices and extend expiring health care subsidies.

Manchin, Schumer announce slimmed-down deal on climate, taxes, health

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Wednesday said they had struck a climate, health and tax package deal — weeks after Manchin seemingly had …

thehill.com

 

[GrandAdmiral]

Yea, i agree. If the Dems had 54 in the senate this wouldn't be as much of a problem, but they aren't going to get another one in West Virginia.

Hating on Manchin isn't going to help them get a bigger majority though. It doesn't serve any purpose at all to hate on Manchin, at least not publicly.

Can I at least hate on him?

 

[samiam5211]

Can I at least hate on him?

Yes, as long as he doesn't see it.

We don't want him formally switching sides because we hurt his feelings.

 

[zztop]

I'm honestly surprised Manchin agreed to anything. Considering he has a reputation of agreeing to things, only to pull the rug out from the others who negotiated with him in good faith.

I'm going to remain skeptical until this actually is finalized, because if not him, then Sinema could throw a wrench into all of this

Sinema indicates she may want to change Schumer-Manchin deal

Sinema has leverage and she knows it.

www.axios.com

While Sinema supported the 15% minimum book tax back in December, which would raise more than $300 billion, Schumer never bothered to check if her position changed, given the darkening economic outlook.

Schumer and Manchin also inserted the language on taxing carried interest as regular income, which would raise approximately $14 billion, knowing full well that Sinema never agreed to it. That move blindsided Sinema.

Now the private equity industry, which has contributed heavily to Sinema, is hopeful that she'll knock the provision out.

Kyrsten Sinema Used the Winery Where She Interned to Fundraise With Private Equity

The Arizona senator, who is blocking tax increases on the rich, later used Bill Price’s Three Sticks winery as a site for a high-dollar fundraiser.

theintercept.com

 

[GrandAdmiral]

I'm honestly surprised Manchin agreed to anything. Considering he has a reputation of agreeing to things, only to pull the rug out from the others who negotiated with him in good faith.

I'm going to remain skeptical until this actually is finalized, because if not him, then Sinema could throw a wrench into all of this

Sinema indicates she may want to change Schumer-Manchin deal

Sinema has leverage and she knows it.

www.axios.com

While Sinema supported the 15% minimum book tax back in December, which would raise more than $300 billion, Schumer never bothered to check if her position changed, given the darkening economic outlook.

Schumer and Manchin also inserted the language on taxing carried interest as regular income, which would raise approximately $14 billion, knowing full well that Sinema never agreed to it. That move blindsided Sinema.

Now the private equity industry, which has contributed heavily to Sinema, is hopeful that she'll knock the provision out.

Kyrsten Sinema Used the Winery Where She Interned to Fundraise With Private Equity

The Arizona senator, who is blocking tax increases on the rich, later used Bill Price’s Three Sticks winery as a site for a high-dollar fundraiser.

theintercept.com

Yeah. I would be shocked if she doesn't sank it this time. She and Manchin seem to go back and forth.