2026 Midterms (7 Viewers)

[Optimus Prime]

President Trump's team has launched an early and aggressive behind-the-scenes effort to maintain the GOP's tenuous grip on the House in 2026 — and avoid his third impeachment.

Why it matters: Trump allies believe — with good reason — that a Democrat-controlled House would launch investigations of the president and move to impeach him. That's exactly what happened after Democrats seized the chamber during Trump's first term.

• Midterm elections are historically tough for the party occupying the White House, and senior Republicans privately acknowledge that retaining the speaker's gavel won't be easy.

The twice-impeached Trump "knows the stakes firsthand. He saw what can happen. It's clear he doesn't want that again," said Matt Gorman, a top official for House Republicans' campaign arm in the 2018 midterms.

• "Investigations, impeachment — he knows it's all on the table with a Speaker [Hakeem] Jeffries."
• Already, some Democrats have signaled they want to investigate Trump's overhaul of the U.S. government, whether he manipulated markets and fostered insider trading with his tariff announcements, and whether he's helped Elon Musk secure deals for Starlink.
• Then there's that $400 million jet from Qatar. Democrats and other critics say Trump violated the Constitution by accepting the gift.

Zoom in: Here are five steps Trump's taking to try to keep Republican control of the House, where the GOP has an eight-seat majority — including vacancies created this year by the deaths of three Democrats.

1. Trying to prevent retirements

The White House is targeting several Republicans in politically divided swing districts and urging them to not ditch their seats or run for higher office.

• It has sent a clear message to New York Rep. Mike Lawler that Trump wants him to stay in the House rather than run for governor. This month Trump made a point of endorsing Lawler for re-election to his southern New York district, which Kamala Harris won in the presidential election last November.
• Trump's team also has expressed concern about Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga weighing a run for the Senate.

Incumbent lawmakers with established fundraising and campaigning networks are almost always better positioned to win than any challengers.

• Vacant seats also cost the party big bucks. Trump's allies have been passing around a spreadsheet with cost estimates to compete in the seats of 16 members if they depart. Among the estimated price tags: As much as $14 million for Lawler's seat and $3.7 million for Huizenga's.

Trump's team hasn't been totally successful in dissuading ambitious lawmakers from jumping ship.

• Michigan Rep. John James opted to run for governor. Trump is worried about the GOP's chances of keeping James' seat on the state's eastern shore, according to a person familiar with the president's thinking.
• The White House also is worried about retaining the central Kentucky seat held by Rep. Andy Barr, who's running for Senate. Trump won Barr's district by 15 points in November, but Democrats hold an edge in registered voters there.

2. Spending big

Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.

• Securing American Greatness, a pro-Trump group that works with the White House, has launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign touting his economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans.
• The commercials also are airing in 13 districts where Trump won in November, but House GOP candidates lost

• Trump also has a leadership PAC, Never Surrender, planning to give directly to Republican candidates.

3. Taking primary challengers off the table

Besides Lawler, Trump has endorsed a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents in a series of moves aimed at shutting down would-be primary challengers before they get off the ground, people close to the president tell Axios.

• Top Republicans are worried that competitive primaries could drain the party's resources and weaken lawmakers in next year's general election.

The endorsements by Trump followed a recent meeting involving the president, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) chair Richard Hudson, and Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, a former Trump aide.

• Trump proposed endorsing vulnerable Republicans early to ward off primary challenges and Johnson agreed, according to a person familiar with the discussion.
• Corry Bliss, who formerly led a pro-House GOP super PAC, said Trump's popularity among Republican voters is likely to stop many potential primary challengers in their tracks............

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/27/trump-5-steps-gop-house-2026

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[Optimus Prime]

Texas could become the hottest battleground state in the country, if the results of both Republican and Democratic primaries are anything to go by.

Democrat James Talarico, a progressive Presbyterian seminarian, will face off against Trump’s favored candidate, the scandal-plagued attorney general, Ken Paxton. The matchup has liberals salivating.

Paxton, dogged by corruption charges, impeachment hearings and an affair that left his marriage in tatters, is considered by some in his own party as “the worst possible top-of-the-ticket” candidate.

Meanwhile, Talarico, a fresh-faced, clean-cut millennial, who quotes scripture to justify his progressive beliefs, seems like the perfect foil, at least according to Democratic party leaders.

No wonder, then, that Talarico pulled in a massive fundraising haul immediately after Paxton won his party’s nomination. This combined with his already impressive war-chest of about $27m is a good indication that Democratic donors are betting big on Talarico to turn Texas blue.

But the reality is that blue-collar voters, not blue-blooded donors, will decide the outcome of the race. And Talarico has a lot of work to do to win over working-class Texans.

It’s true that a bevy of early polls show Talarico slightly ahead. But if you dig into the results you’ll notice that these surveys skew toward highly engaged and highly educated voters.

Consider a recent poll from Public Policy Polling that has Talarico leading Paxton by seven points; only 22% of voters sampled have less than a college education.

Or a recent University of Texas pollwhich has Talarico up eight points; only 27% of respondents lack a degree. Polls like these could be giving Democrats a false sense of confidence by overrepresenting college-educated voters who increasingly skew liberal.

Indeed, in the primary election Talarico did best with highly educated voters, and abysmally with those voters who lack any college experience. And while primary contests are different animals than a general election, those trends could be cause for alarm.

The fact is Texas is a blue-collar state. More than 60% of voters there do not have a college degree. Winning the working-class vote isn’t optional.

To be sure, Talarico should be applauded for focusing his campaign on the issues that matter most to ordinary Texans: the rising cost of living and the top-heavy gilded age inequality that keeps us stuck in a low-growth, low-wage economy.

Working-class voters appreciate these kinds of progressive economic appeals, and many of the policies that Talarico advocates are broadly popular. But this alone may not be enough to sway a jaded and increasingly frustrated working class.

Talarico’s personal style is far more professorial than populist. That’s not surprising. He has a master’s degree from Harvard University and worked as a non-profit “ed-tech” executive before his career in politics.

At times, he sounds as if he’s doing an impersonation of Barack Obama: “I ran for office not to be served [pause] but to serve …”

In television interviews he looks wooden and rehearsed, spouting cliches and spinning tough questions. Despite campaigning against the billionaires and corrupt elites, he comes off as the consummate Washington insider.

What about his unique brand of Christianity?

Democrats don’t ordinarily run seminarians for the Senate. It’s almost as if Texas liberals, outnumbered and aware of the yawning red-blue divide – especially on the questions of faith and flag – elected a preacher imagining he could have magic appeal to Trump-exhausted Republicansand swingy Texas Latinos.

That’s to say, it’s hard to shake the feeling that it’s something of a political act. He ought to be careful here. The only thing more condescending than assuming that religious people are provincial, and therefore stupid, is assuming that because they are religious they would surely follow a preacher.…….

If Democrats are to win Texas, James Talarico must win blue-collar voters | Dustin Guastella

James Talarico got the opponent he – and the Democratic party – wanted, but flipping Texas blue means winning blue-collar voters, not blue-blooded donors

www.theguardian.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[Maxp]

Finally someone is responding correctly to the dog and pony show.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[GrandAdmiral]

No Democratic candidate will ever get the vote of anyone who is truly a modern day Republican, aka MAGA.

Just like for the NFL draft, every Democratic campaign should remove Republicans from their potential draft board of voters, because they can't do anything to get their votes. However, Republicans love to manipulate the most threatening Democrats into chasing their votes, because it hurts Democrats with the voters they can get to vote for them.

The good news is that Democratcs don't need Republican voters to get elected.

I've always liked that approach... Here is my platform. This is where I stand. This is where we can compromise. If you can roll with that, there's a place for you. If not, kick rocks.

 

[efil4]

Ted Cruz doesnt see the "data" that supports GOP having issues with high gas prices.

okie dokie.

 

[faceman]

I've always liked that approach... Here is my platform. This is where I stand. This is where we can compromise. If you can roll with that, there's a place for you. If not, kick rocks.

I've said the following many times. My state of Ms. is having a Governors election. Republicans nominated
Satan and Democrats nominated Jesus,Satan would win the election. There is nothing a Democrat can do
with these type of voters,so fark em. What Democrats need to do is appeal to independents,moderates,and centrists.
That's hoe elections are won.

 

[SFIDC3]

Trump was the nominee in 2024 one second after he lost the 2020 election. Biden
and the rest of the party underestimated him. That was a huge mistake and we are
paying for it now. He should have been arrested for sedition before he had the
chance to run again. Trump was the elephant in the room the entire time Biden was
the President

Yup, totally agreed on above.....The DOJ failed us under Biden.....we need to get back to sanity.....

 

[Booker]

If Talarico makes it a close race in Texas, then I think he will be the most electable candidate. I also like him more than Beshear, based on what I currently know about both of them.

I don't agree with that. If he loses it doesn't matter if it's close or not, he'll be tagged as a loser and people will look for the next shiny thing. Just the way it works.

And if he were to be elected this fall, then he'd be taking office in 2027 and would barely be getting his feet on the ground before he'd need to start campaigning. The next president will have a huge mess to clean up after, and personally I would like the candidate to have more experience than the Texas legislature and a few months in Washington. Plus he's really young (just turned 37), and I just don't think he'll be ready for the job (though I could see him being discussed as a VP candidate to try to put Texas in play).

And if he's a unicorn Democrat that can win statewide office in Texas, why turn around and potentially cede that seat back to the Republicans two years later? Let him hold it at least for the full term, and then I could see him being a candidate in 2032 or especially 2036, when he'd potentially be a twice elected Senator. But first let's see if he can get past Paxton. This is Texas, and I remember people saying the same things about Beto, including projecting him as a presidential candidate, as we're hearing about Talarico.

As far as Beshear goes, I've read about how popular he is in Kentucky, and I think he will be a candidate but I have doubts that he will be the candidate. I'm not sure if what works for him there will work at the national level, and I don't necessarily think being a Democrat who can get elected to statewide office in a small red state needs to be the benchmark (John Bel Edwards served two terms as governor of Louisiana, but I wouldn't put him forward as a presidential candidate).

We'll see what happens -- 2028 can't get here fast enough!

 

[Incumbent]

Talarico is taking the fight to these Republican charlatans.

Edit: looks like this was originally said several weeks ago (?) but the message is on point.