2026 Midterms (1 Viewer)

[Optimus Prime]

President Trump's team has launched an early and aggressive behind-the-scenes effort to maintain the GOP's tenuous grip on the House in 2026 — and avoid his third impeachment.

Why it matters: Trump allies believe — with good reason — that a Democrat-controlled House would launch investigations of the president and move to impeach him. That's exactly what happened after Democrats seized the chamber during Trump's first term.

• Midterm elections are historically tough for the party occupying the White House, and senior Republicans privately acknowledge that retaining the speaker's gavel won't be easy.

The twice-impeached Trump "knows the stakes firsthand. He saw what can happen. It's clear he doesn't want that again," said Matt Gorman, a top official for House Republicans' campaign arm in the 2018 midterms.

• "Investigations, impeachment — he knows it's all on the table with a Speaker [Hakeem] Jeffries."
• Already, some Democrats have signaled they want to investigate Trump's overhaul of the U.S. government, whether he manipulated markets and fostered insider trading with his tariff announcements, and whether he's helped Elon Musk secure deals for Starlink.
• Then there's that $400 million jet from Qatar. Democrats and other critics say Trump violated the Constitution by accepting the gift.

Zoom in: Here are five steps Trump's taking to try to keep Republican control of the House, where the GOP has an eight-seat majority — including vacancies created this year by the deaths of three Democrats.

1. Trying to prevent retirements

The White House is targeting several Republicans in politically divided swing districts and urging them to not ditch their seats or run for higher office.

• It has sent a clear message to New York Rep. Mike Lawler that Trump wants him to stay in the House rather than run for governor. This month Trump made a point of endorsing Lawler for re-election to his southern New York district, which Kamala Harris won in the presidential election last November.
• Trump's team also has expressed concern about Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga weighing a run for the Senate.

Incumbent lawmakers with established fundraising and campaigning networks are almost always better positioned to win than any challengers.

• Vacant seats also cost the party big bucks. Trump's allies have been passing around a spreadsheet with cost estimates to compete in the seats of 16 members if they depart. Among the estimated price tags: As much as $14 million for Lawler's seat and $3.7 million for Huizenga's.

Trump's team hasn't been totally successful in dissuading ambitious lawmakers from jumping ship.

• Michigan Rep. John James opted to run for governor. Trump is worried about the GOP's chances of keeping James' seat on the state's eastern shore, according to a person familiar with the president's thinking.
• The White House also is worried about retaining the central Kentucky seat held by Rep. Andy Barr, who's running for Senate. Trump won Barr's district by 15 points in November, but Democrats hold an edge in registered voters there.

2. Spending big

Trump has built a $500 million-plus political apparatus, and he's already unloading some of it with 2026 in mind.

• Securing American Greatness, a pro-Trump group that works with the White House, has launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign touting his economic agenda in the districts of eight vulnerable House Republicans.
• The commercials also are airing in 13 districts where Trump won in November, but House GOP candidates lost

• Trump also has a leadership PAC, Never Surrender, planning to give directly to Republican candidates.

3. Taking primary challengers off the table

Besides Lawler, Trump has endorsed a slate of swing-district GOP incumbents in a series of moves aimed at shutting down would-be primary challengers before they get off the ground, people close to the president tell Axios.

• Top Republicans are worried that competitive primaries could drain the party's resources and weaken lawmakers in next year's general election.

The endorsements by Trump followed a recent meeting involving the president, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) chair Richard Hudson, and Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, a former Trump aide.

• Trump proposed endorsing vulnerable Republicans early to ward off primary challenges and Johnson agreed, according to a person familiar with the discussion.
• Corry Bliss, who formerly led a pro-House GOP super PAC, said Trump's popularity among Republican voters is likely to stop many potential primary challengers in their tracks............

https://www.axios.com/2025/05/27/trump-5-steps-gop-house-2026

 

[Optimus Prime]

Voters label Democrats ‘out of touch’ and ‘weak’ in poll ahead of 2026 midterms

In the wake of Democrats’ 2024 election losses, the party has faced several criticisms, including accusations that it has abandoned working-class voters

www.independent.co.uk

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

Voters label Democrats ‘out of touch’ and ‘weak’ in poll ahead of 2026 midterms

In the wake of Democrats’ 2024 election losses, the party has faced several criticisms, including accusations that it has abandoned working-class voters

www.independent.co.uk

That headline should read "...in polls way, way ahead of 2026 midterms."

 

[Optimus Prime]

Seeking to offset a Republican plan to pick up congressional seats in Texas, California Democratssay they are prepared to redraw the state’s 52 congressional districts in a longshot and controversial effort to pick up Democratic seats.

Governor Gavin Newsom, seen as a likely presidential candidate in 2028, has been leading the threat in recent days. And Democratic members of California’s delegation in the US House appear to be on board.

“We want our gavels back,” Representative Mark Takano, a California Democrat, told Punchbowl News. “That’s what this is about.” Democrats hold 43 of California’s 52 seats and reportedly believe they can pick up an additional five to seven seats by drawing new maps.

Newsom is pushing the plan as Texas Republicans are poised to redraw its 38 congressional districts in a special session that begins next week.

Texas’s governor, Greg Abbott, put redistricting on the agenda at the request of Donald Trump, who wants Republicans to add five seats in Texas as he seeks to stave off a loss in congressional seats next year. The

effort has been widely criticized by Democrats as an anti-democratic ploy to make Republicans unaccountable to their voters.

Newsom’s plan in California is unlikely to succeed. More than a decade ago, California voters approved a constitutional amendment that stripped lawmakers of their ability to draw congressional districts and gave it to an independent redistricting commission.

Newsom has only offered vague ideas for how to get around that requirement. He has suggested the legislature could call a quick voter referendum to potentially strip the commission of its power.

He also said on Wednesday there was a possibility of the legislature trying to enact new maps on its own – a novel legal theory………

Newsom threatens to redraw California House maps in protest at Texas plan

Governor condemns Texas effort to redraw maps to pick up more seats and says Democrats should respond in kind

www.theguardian.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters are feeling motivated to vote in the next election cycle, according to the latest CNN/SSRS poll.

The survey, conducted this past weekend, shows 72 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are “extremely motivated” to vote ahead of the midterms, compared to 50 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters.…..

Among Democrats, motivation to vote his increased in the early months of President Trump’s term in office — up 10 points from October, when 62 percent of Democratic voters said they were eager to vote in the 2024 presidential elections.

Republican enthusiasm, meanwhile, has declined by 17 points from October, when 67 percent said they were extremely motivated to vote in the election.

In September, 68 percent of voters from both parties said they were excited about voting in the 2024 election.

The latest data could be good news for the Democratic Party, which saw nearly half as much enthusiasm in a poll taken in the October ahead of the 2022 midterm elections……..

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5406848-democrats-motivated-vote-midterms-poll/

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[Optimus Prime]

Texas is looking at redoing its congressional map, and it’s turning into a national battle over the control of Congress and President Donald Trump’s hold on the Republican Party.

The battle could come to a head next week, when the state’s legislature, which usually meets only once every two years, will have a special session. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) called the special session to address a variety of issues, including responding to the devastating Central Texas floods that killed 134 people and left more than 100 missing this month. But deep in the agenda is also a provision to redo the state’s congressional district lines.

Texas is the largest red state in the country and sends more Republicans to Congress than any other state. Its congressional delegation is made up of 25 red seats and 13 blue seats, with very few being particularly competitive. Outside of southern Texas, members often serve directly next to districts represented by the opposite party and still manage to win by comfortable margins.

Trump wants to spread some of the wealth to make more Democratic districts competitive for Republicans. Increasing the number of Republican seats could help the party as it braces for a challenging midterm season next year.

Trump spoke with Texas Republicans in the U.S. House yesterday morning, urging them to accept the plan to create five new Republican seats. Punchbowl News first reported the call, and two people familiar with the discussion confirmed it to us. If all goes according to plan, Trump said, he could push a similar effort in other states.

“I think we get five. And there could be some other states where we’re going to get three or four or five. Texas will be the biggest one,” Trump told reporters yesterday.

But the Republicans in Congress themselves didn’t seem terribly thrilled about the idea. When the White House political team made a similar push for redistricting last month, several members appeared apprehensive. None would speak about it with us on the record, except one.

“I support President Trump, and I will run and win in any district I’m given,” Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) said in a statement.

Changing the boundaries would require giving up some Republican voters in safer seats, making them more competitive. It wasn’t too long ago that the state was peppered with more competitive districts. Rep. Chip Roy won his seat in 2018 with 51 percent of the vote. After redistricting made Republican seats much safer, he won by 62 percent in 2022 and 2024. Rep. Michael McCaul won reelection by only 51 percent in 2018 but by 63 percent in 2024. By 2022, only three districts in south Texas were competitive in the state, and that was largely because of changing voting patterns among the region’s Latino population.

“These Republican members of Congress from Texas have, of course, been worried that their own districts will be heavily affected,” Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) said. “But at the end of the day, they get run over by Trump every time.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) gave his endorsement of the plan, posting on X that a recent shift in Texas’s Hispanic voters toward Republicans “will mean significant gains for Texas Republicans” if they redraw districts. Cornyn is facing a daunting primary challenge from hard-right Attorney General Ken Paxton and has been hemming closely to Trump’s agenda.

Abbott cited “constitutional concerns” about current districts based in Houston and Fort Worth from the Justice Department. Harmeet Dhillon, assistant attorney general for the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, wrote to Abbott and Paxton this month that the districts were racially gerrymandered to prefer minority candidates...................

Fire and fury over Texas​

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/16/fire-fury-over-texas/

 

[Optimus Prime]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republicans are encountering early headaches in Senate races viewed as pivotal to maintaining the party’s majority in next year’s midterm elections, with recruitment failures, open primaries, infighting and a president who has been sitting on the sidelines.

Democrats still face an uphill battle. They need to net four seats to retake the majority, and most of the 2026 contests are in states that Republican President Donald Trump easily won last November.

But Democrats see reasons for hope in Republicans’ challenges. They include a nasty primary in Texas that could jeopardize a seat Republicans have held for decades. In North Carolina and Georgia, the GOP still lacks a clear field of candidates.

Trump’s influence dials up the uncertainty as he decides whether to flex his influential endorsement to stave off intraparty fights.

Republicans stress that it remains early in the election cycle and say there is still plenty of time for candidates to establish themselves and Trump to wade in.

The president, said White House political director James Blair, has been working closely with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.
“I won’t get ahead of the president but look, him and leader Thune have been very aligned. I expect them to be aligned and work closely,” he said.

Trump’s timing, allies say, also reflects the far more disciplined approach by him and his political operation, which are determined for Republicans to gain seats in both the Senate and the House.

Here’s what’s happening in some key Senate races:…….

The 2026 Senate map is tough for Democrats, but Republicans have their own headaches

Republicans are encountering some early headaches in Senate races viewed as pivotal to maintaining the party’s majority next year.

apnews.com

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

This will be the first midterm election in a long time time in which Mitch McConnell won't be the point man for the Republicans.

 

[bird]

This will be the first midterm election in a long time time in which Mitch McConnell won't be the point man for the Republicans.

That’s one good thing anyway.

 

[Optimus Prime]

A plan for Texas to redraw its congressional districts and gain five additional Republican seats barrels through flimsy legal arguments and political norms like a rough-stock rodeo bronco through a broken chute.

But the fiddly process of drawing the maps to Republicans’ advantage for 2026 may require more finesse than cowboy politics can produce.

“It is more than redistricting. It’s really theft,” said Democratic representative Al Green, whose Houston-area congressional district is likely to be one targeted by Republicans in a redrawn map.

“It’s the kind of election theft that you use when you realize that you can’t win playing with the hand that you’ve been dealt. So, you decide that you’ll just rearrange the cards so that they favor you.”

The attempted power grab comes at a time when the state legislature is meant to be focused on the floods that killed more than 130 people just two weeks ago.

Texas has 38 congressional districts, and Republicans hold 25 of those districts today. All but one of those districts has a white voting majority. And every one of those districts was won by double digits.

While Republicans hold two-thirds of the seats, they only won about 58% of congressional voters last year. In 2018, the midterm of Donald Trump’s first term in office and a Democratic wave election year, Texas Republicans barely cleared 50% statewide, and lost two of those seats.

In 2022, after a harsh gerrymander that voting rights groups challenged in court, Republicans reclaimed those seats.

Texas is the only state that explicitly permits more than one redistricting in between decennial censuses.

But even accounting for that, the strategy exploits the end of pre-clearance requirements for new maps under the Voting Rights Act that the US supreme court eliminated in the Shelby county v Holder decision in 2013.

“They are willing to enact, frankly, illegal, racially discriminatory maps, even while their current maps are in court,” said Sam Gostomski, executive director of the Texas Democratic party.

“They know if they just cheat, they can break the law … They can just do this every couple of years and kick the ball down the road, because every time they draw new districts, those cases have to be litigated, and that takes time, right?”

The party opposing the president historically gains seats in Congress in off-year elections. Facing a likely repeat of 2018, the White House is looking for options in Texas to limit the damage.…….

‘It’s really theft’: the Republican plan to redraw Texas maps – and grab more power

Democrats are livid over the governor’s plan to redraw districts at a time when Texas officials are supposed to be focused on recovery from the floods

www.theguardian.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

The Republican National Committee ended the first half of 2025 with a $65.56 million cash on hand advantage over the Democratic Party, as the left works to rebound from 2024 election losses and the right continues to deeply intertwine its future with President Trump.

New campaign finance filings show the RNC had more than $80.7 million at the end of June, while the Democratic National Committee finished with around $15.2 million in cash on hand as both parties prepare for next year's midterm elections.

"The RNC has been working hand in glove with President Trump's team to build the war chest needed to protect and expand our Republican majorities in Congress next year," RNC spokesperson Kiersten Pels said in a statement.

"Vice President Vance has done an amazing job as the RNC's finance chair working with Chairman Whatley to do just that, and we're not going to stop."

The gap between the two is far wider than this same time period before the 2018 midterms, when the RNC's cash on hand advantage over the DNC was $37.2 million at the end of June 2017.

The political dynamics at that point were similar to now, with President Trump months removed from winning the White House and Republicans controlling the House and Senate.

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats won back the House and started to build momentum that carried over into Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election.

While the midterms are still more than a year away, it already appears likely the House will be Democrats' easiest route to winning back power in Washington.

Republicans are also contending with the potential challenge that often befalls the party of the president, where the midterms become a referendum on the commander in chief.

Democrats are facing continued questions about their approach moving forward after last fall's election setbacks, where Mr. Trump won a second term as president and the party lost the Senate and failed to retake the House.

Earlier this year, party leaders chose Ken Martin, then the head of Minnesota's Democratic Party, to take over the DNC in an attempt to gain stronger footing with next year's midterms and the 2028 presidential election in mind.

But in his first months as party chair, Martin was forced to contend with intraparty tensions and disputes as he attempted to offer a stronger counter to Mr. Trump's second term and Republican control in Washington.

The Martin-led DNC has succeeded however in raising more money than the national party organization did at this same stage in 2017, and in a recent news release, the DNC shared its finding that "contributions during the first five months of Chair Martin's leadership are nearly 2:1 dollars raised in the months after the 2016 cycle."……..

RNC ends first half of 2025 with $65.6 million cash advantage over DNC

The gap between the RNC and DNC is wider now than it was at this same stage of the first midterm cycle after Trump's 2016 victory.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

Republican strategists say they plan to make a major midterm talking point from the threat of a third impeachment against Donald Trumpthat could come if Democrats retake the House.

“We know what the stakes are in the midterm elections,” John McLaughlin, a Trump pollster, told NBC News. “If we don’t succeed, Democrats will begin persecuting President Trump again. They would go for impeachment.”

Right now, Republicans hold an eight-seat advantage in the House, walling the president off from a third impeachment, but that could change if the Democrats surge in 2026, as the president’s party typically suffers during midterm elections.

Still, according to Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., who led the party’s second impeachment against Trump over the January 6 insurrection, the Democrats themselves plan to focus more on what they see as the president’s “terrible agenda.”………..

Republicans plan to use threat of third impeachment of Trump as key issue in midterms

Top Democrat, however, says no one in party thinks impeachment is ‘utopian solution to our problems’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[bird]

Republican strategists say they plan to make a major midterm talking point from the threat of a third impeachment against Donald Trumpthat could come if Democrats retake the House.

“We know what the stakes are in the midterm elections,” John McLaughlin, a Trump pollster, told NBC News. “If we don’t succeed, Democrats will begin persecuting President Trump again. They would go for impeachment.”

Right now, Republicans hold an eight-seat advantage in the House, walling the president off from a third impeachment, but that could change if the Democrats surge in 2026, as the president’s party typically suffers during midterm elections.

Still, according to Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., who led the party’s second impeachment against Trump over the January 6 insurrection, the Democrats themselves plan to focus more on what they see as the president’s “terrible agenda.”………..

Republicans plan to use threat of third impeachment of Trump as key issue in midterms

Top Democrat, however, says no one in party thinks impeachment is ‘utopian solution to our problems’

www.independent.co.uk

Not a utopian solution but a damn good start.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

Republican strategists say they plan to make a major midterm talking point from the threat of a third impeachment against Donald Trumpthat could come if Democrats retake the House.

“We know what the stakes are in the midterm elections,” John McLaughlin, a Trump pollster, told NBC News. “If we don’t succeed, Democrats will begin persecuting President Trump again. They would go for impeachment.”

Right now, Republicans hold an eight-seat advantage in the House, walling the president off from a third impeachment, but that could change if the Democrats surge in 2026, as the president’s party typically suffers during midterm elections.

Still, according to Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., who led the party’s second impeachment against Trump over the January 6 insurrection, the Democrats themselves plan to focus more on what they see as the president’s “terrible agenda.”………..

Republicans plan to use threat of third impeachment of Trump as key issue in midterms

Top Democrat, however, says no one in party thinks impeachment is ‘utopian solution to our problems’

www.independent.co.uk

Based on the current trend of Trump's approval ratings dropping when polling all voters, convincing voters that Democrats will impeach Trump might make more people vote for Democrats.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Based on the current trend of Trump's approval ratings dropping when polling all voters, convincing voters that Democrats will impeach Trump might make more people vote for Democrats.

GOP Midterm Campaigns: They’ll impeach Trump!

Dem Midterm Campaigns: We’ll impeach Trump!

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

GOP Midterm Campaigns: They’ll impeach Trump!

Dem Midterm Campaigns: We’ll impeach Trump!

Now that's a bipartisanship, at least on it's face.

What's bizarre about the Republicans campaigning on "they'll impeach Trump" is that they are saving the Democrats from having to put time and money into campaigning on keeping Trump in check. So they can spend all of their time and money on other things that resonate with the voters.

 

[Optimus Prime]

It is a bit of a trap

Get the democrats talking about impeachment so the GOP can respond with cries of witch-hunts, political retribution and lawfare

Could be beneficial to no not fall into that trap and just talk about issues, policies and impacts

On the other hand not a week (depending on the week not a day) goes by without something being called unconstitutional, illegal, immoral, inhumane

All that with no accountability, no consequences?

I can see that not going over well either

So democrat strategists will have some thinking, planning and analysis to do

 

[MT15]

I’m fine with them concentrating on policies that need to be corrected. Everybody with half a brain knows Trump has done multiple impeachable offenses and more come every week. They don’t need to talk about it.