2019 worst year for job creation since 2011 (1 Viewer)

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    UncleTrvlingJim

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    So, I have 2 purposes for this thread.

    The first is to discuss phrasing of statistics and how they can be used to elicit emotional reactions. My thread title is accurate. Fewer jobs were created in 2019 than in any of the past 7 years. However, it's also true that our labor market is very good. It's something to keep in mind as we near election season. What statistics are being used, why are they important, and what are the trends.

    The second part is to actually discuss the economy somewhat. I've been a critic of the tax cuts because the economy was already good, IMO, and it adds money to a sector of the economy that had plenty of cash (and was thus not a factor in growth), and of course there was no corresponding cut in spending (in fact we did the opposite). So, we're now running close to $1 trillion per year in deficits. If the economy is mostly back to where we were before the tax cuts (2% GDP growth, and slightly lower job creation numbers)... is that good enough to justify the massive deficits we're running?
     
    I have what is probably a simple economic question, but it's something I've always wondered about but never really understood or studied. Why is the deficit/debt always compared/contrasted to the GDP of a country and not the revenue the government brings in through taxes and other means? And why is that the right way to compare it? It just seems odd to me since the country isn't responsible for nor does it own all of that GDP, but it is responsible for all of it's debt/deficit.

    PS, I'm only quoting Jim because he made the comparison, but anybody can answer.

    It’s like a debt to income ratio for a country.

    Lenders use it to determine suitability for getting a loan, same as with individuals or businesses.

    I think they use gdp because it’s potential revenue. They can always raise taxes to pay their bills.
     
    I don't think its the right way to do it - it just is a good way to see the public debt burden for an economy, as well as make comparions historically and among different economies.
     
    I don't think its the right way to do it - it just is a good way to see the public debt burden for an economy, as well as make comparions historically and among different economies.

    That actually makes sense to me. What would be a better way to do it?
     
    That actually makes sense to me. What would be a better way to do it?
    When I said I didn't think it was the right way - I meant it as, I don't think there is one right way to do it.

    For instance - I agree with Jim in that running high deficits during a recession or depression should be interpreted differently than running one during economic expansion.

    Another metric I like to look at is receipts and spending as a percent of GDP. I thought that was sort of where you were going with in your original question. Not sure exactly where it is right now, but I am confident we are in the low end of the range we have seen in the post ww2 years for receipts - maybe around 17%. Historically, something between 19% and 20% looks good.
     
    I'd like to say something. This my biggest concern.. If you actually knew... Not only am I greatly concerned about, but it frightens me to my core.

    I am on the road with a tablet, there will be errors so please bear with me. But I want to say something about me so you will understand.

    When I ride my motorcycle I never ever set a tire on the interstate. I take small local highways throughout all these small towns. I have logged many a mile and probably 20 states. I have seen these town's. I have seen how the town's were built either around a town square or one or two streets around what used to the railroad.

    I notice how the town's are laid out, I picturenhow it used to be. How the roads went and how people traveled and I can picture how these town's were back in the day. How life was. I see where the l9cal facto ry was that brought the ecomy to the town. I pay attention to the architecture.

    For some reason I have always been a history buff. I collect items from WWII. I have a room that is a museum. MY collection is not just limited to helmets and bayonets, but I have items, pictures and letters from the 40's of the USA Home front. Please go look at the what do you collect thread on sr.com.
    I enjoy reading the letters from home to the soldiers, and letters from the soldiers home. Printed nf9rmation, flyers etc.

    The manufacturing, moral, unity, patriotism was unreal. When the war hit out manufacturing went from peacetime time to wartime production. Our manufacturing went into over drive.We made what we needed.
    Our country grew gardens even way before the war. We canned our own goods, smoked and stored our meats.

    Part of all this also includes items from the 30's that had some war connection. Items from the depression I own tell a story like no other... Home front items from the 1900's, 1910's, 1920's that have a story with me and I own specific items from those time periods for specific reason. Such as sheet music from 1908. I have pictures from the past I view.

    I know I am rambling. But ... when I say I ride my motorcycle through small towns. I pay a little more attention to things than most do or would.

    Back in those days if you had something from China or Japan you had a real treasure, a high dollar import. Our country was strong, we made things. We had hardware stores owned by Mr and Mrs Jones. A grocery store owned by Mr and Mrs Smith. A lumber yard owned by Mr. And Mrs Black. An appliance store by Uncle James.

    All our equipment, cars, appliances were made in the USA. Real estate was reasonable.

    Now as you say. Those store fronts are empty. Mr. And Mrs Jones. Grocery was torn down to be re0laced by a corporate chain. The appliance store was replaced by a walmart... And our once great manufacturing is almost gone.. The treasured import from China is now cheap plastic junk. I dont even think that the US makes a simple radio anymore... And real estate uas gone byond reasonably priced that Mr and Mrs. SMITH cannot afford to rent a building for thier store...Only large corps can afford to just build, and import more junk...

    Scared... I am beyond scared.. Sad am I..Hurt am I.... But the worst is yet to come.And it really frightens me to the core.

    The day is gonna come that WWIII does happen. It's is mankind's destiny. Man has fought on this planet since the beginning of time. To say it won't is fooling yourself. Mankind has fought it's entire time on this planet. If I had to speculate it will be when we start running out of petroleum and countries start invading others for oil. And there will be nuclear devices used most likely.

    And during that time the imports will stop. And with it parts to our cars, tractors and other equipment. We won't have appliances parts for them... We won't even have simple radios since we are not producing them anymore... And we won't have any manufacturing to go into war production... We won't even have enough manufacturing to sustain our our country for the simple items we will need for the nessecities of living.

    Our kids today don't even know how to grow or can a pickle, and if 8t gets t9 the point there 8s no internet or electricity there will be now way they could learn unless they stored a set of encyclopedias somewhere.

    And we will be stuck with nothing left but cheap Chinese plastic junk...

    I know I rambled... but mt15 I agree with you all my heart and soul. This is the problem that no one is addressing... if we as a nation do not do something now to get Manufactoring going in the USA, and get small business able to buy, sell and maintain our own goods. Support these small towns, with out nation moving into the city to work for McDonald's or w almart. We have to have grocery stores selling and producingn local goods and operated by Mr. And mrs. Jones again.

    The day is going to come that we will need to rely on ourselves for survival and it just won't happen. And the country that is able 5o manufacture goods for its people will survive and the country that does not will lose.
    A slight edit to your point, as I grew up in rural America and have traveled it for years, before I became an urbanite.

    I do think it is important Americans make things. But we can't make everything. What we need to do is connect rural America to the economy of the future. Not just the economy of the past. Broadband internet can give a lot more options.

    It didnt work out long term, but my kid town turned the closed plastic molder factory into a hydroponic grocery. My mom loved how fresh the produce. Not since our small farmers market closed have we had something that fresh.

    And don't hate on McDonald's. They are a big employer out in the sticks. I get your point about mon and pop places though.
     
    I think it is really simplistic to blame it on greed.
    For one thing, automation was and is, to some degree at least, inevitable.
    But more than that - there were real decisions being that made that focused on the consumer that led to some of the problems our economy is seeing as a whole and in particular rural/small ton America is seeing. To put it sort of simply - the general idea of our economic policy for at least the last 50 years has been to encourage as much consumption as possible. That has taken the form of helping businesses - through trade deals, through tax incentives/breaks/policy, through policies advocating low interest rates, etc - become more efficient and able to offer goods (and more recently, services) at the low rates.
    That is not greed - and it is not even necessarily seeing business profits as being above people (although there is some of that - its just not a necessary part of the general economic policy). Its just a choice of being pro-consumer.

    It has also worked - and worked quite well.

    It was also recognized fairly early on in this pro-consumer push that many workers would be displaced. This led to the high emphasis on college education and also to certain re-training programs, although arguably the latter has trailed far behind the former. That has also worked to an extent - but is also partly why there is this huge move of people to a relatively small number of huge metropolises and further displaces small town America.


    I see your points to some extent but to look at the pickle we are in now without going back to the 70s and 80s is silly.

    That is when all the textile industry left and others employing rural America. In a nutshell interest rates were thru the roof and companies were cash poor to the point they could not defend themselves or get help from the banks because of the staggering rates.

    So on paper they were worth a ton in assets that is when the corporate raiders struck and knocked out a ton of our manufacturers. Pure greed because selling the assets would get you a ton more cash right the fork now than buying enough stock to make it happen.

    To defend yourself from that end lots of stuff then started to get outsourced to then make more capital in a defense.

    See where I am going here?

    The pro consumer is a byproduct of the corporate raiders that killed manufacturers and business in general.

    Icahn killed TWA among others. And his helping in the trump transition put half a billion in his pocket. Read about that one it is great. You can look it up I am sure!

    The shear greed if the corporate raiders and of the stockholders is why we are where we are. They started us down this rabbit hole.
     
    Now as you say. Those store fronts are empty. Mr. And Mrs Jones. Grocery was torn down to be re0laced by a corporate chain. The appliance store was replaced by a walmart... And our once great manufacturing is almost gone.. The treasured import from China is now cheap plastic junk. I dont even think that the US makes a simple radio anymore... And real estate uas gone byond reasonably priced that Mr and Mrs. SMITH cannot afford to rent a building for thier store...Only large corps can afford to just build, and import more junk.

    Even as politics becomes more and more divisive, there are things we can agree on. Specifically, the importance of small business to America. I will be voting for a candidate who will strengthen unions, encourage co ops, redirect revenues back to the working class, etc. It's time to make a change or we will forever be buried by a corporate stranglehold, and i don't say that lightly. We can't afford to become more of an oligarchy.
     

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