2019 worst year for job creation since 2011 (1 Viewer)

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UncleTrvlingJim

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So, I have 2 purposes for this thread.

The first is to discuss phrasing of statistics and how they can be used to elicit emotional reactions. My thread title is accurate. Fewer jobs were created in 2019 than in any of the past 7 years. However, it's also true that our labor market is very good. It's something to keep in mind as we near election season. What statistics are being used, why are they important, and what are the trends.

The second part is to actually discuss the economy somewhat. I've been a critic of the tax cuts because the economy was already good, IMO, and it adds money to a sector of the economy that had plenty of cash (and was thus not a factor in growth), and of course there was no corresponding cut in spending (in fact we did the opposite). So, we're now running close to $1 trillion per year in deficits. If the economy is mostly back to where we were before the tax cuts (2% GDP growth, and slightly lower job creation numbers)... is that good enough to justify the massive deficits we're running?
 

N.O.Bronco

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A couple quick thoughts here.

1.) Job growth will always slow as you reach full employment, though if I get some time I might unpack why it is a bit more complicated than that if you look at the employment data a little deeper. Geography, long-term unemployment, under employment, wage growth contrasted with real inflation, are all still real problems

2.)I’m not and never have been a deficit hawk. Especially not as an American at this period of time.One thing that drives me nuts about casual economics conversations is the attempt to apply blanket prescriptions to vastly varying diagnosis. America is theglobal backed currency, a resource rich, economic juggernaut, when recessions happen it is the US treasury that becomes the haven for safety. That affords America a unique position in how they can look at debt and debt financing. Far different from developing countries or even many developed countries like Japan or Greece.

That said, what I have a problem with is poor spending. We have spent trillions and went into debt for utterly indefensible things like needless and endless right-wing wars and to give rich people and corporations that are on the verge of regulatory capture even more money. With only minuscule effect on short-term economic growth. Made worse when such debt is accumulated in periods of sustained growth and growing inequality. Exacerbating underlying economic conditions that harm long-term growth and social health. All of which is money that could have been put toward things like a better healthcare system, that would increase purchasing power and the health of society, which has a proven mark on improving economic productivity. It could have been funneled into research and development. The sort of thing that instead of playing catch up to China in areas of tech leadership like 5g, GPS, quantum computing, and green energy, America could be well out in front and leading. Making our businesses once again the unrivaled choice in vastly more leading fields across the economic spectrum. Ensuring once again that America prominence remains at the top of the economic food chain and not increasingly dwindling to countries that haven’t got caught in their own hubris

Instead, much of the American experiment seems to have been tilted to simply look out for the interests of the haves and more specifically, the ultra-haves. The ladders up the economic chain have become harder to climb, the resources to do so more expensive and unavailable, and the result of falling can be a near death sentence.
 
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samiam5211

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I wish a reporter or think tank would do an analysis of how things have trended since 2017, compared the the trend from 2013 - 2016.

Many of these all time highs are continuations of trends already established and some are just slight improvements of recent all time highs.

Trump’s list of achievements needs to be put into context.
 

MT15

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Agreed with most everything here. Of course as we near full employment job growth will slow down.

I agree with bronco though, job creation doesn’t tell the whole story. We travel by car quite a bit, and have a preference for local highways over interstates. The small towns in this country are still struggling. The “good” manufacturing jobs are gone. Long gone, and they aren’t coming back.

So far there’s nothing to replace them. Most of these small towns are slowly being abandoned. Empty stores, empty schools, empty downtowns.

The small town my husband grew up in used to have several small factories. There was a small plumbing fixture manufacturer, a cabinet manufacturer and an Essex Wire plant, that I can recall. There was a small nursing home, a thriving downtown with a hardware store, a cinema, a furniture store, a jeweler, a clothing store, a dime store, several small diners.

Thats all gone. My husband remarked that fully half the storefronts downtown are empty. Some are holding a thrift shop or a small church. The bank is gone, replaced by a kiosk on the edge of town.

This is a real problem that nobody is addressing. At least that I see.
 

JimEverett

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So, I have 2 purposes for this thread.

The first is to discuss phrasing of statistics and how they can be used to elicit emotional reactions. My thread title is accurate. Fewer jobs were created in 2019 than in any of the past 7 years. However, it's also true that our labor market is very good. It's something to keep in mind as we near election season. What statistics are being used, why are they important, and what are the trends.

The second part is to actually discuss the economy somewhat. I've been a critic of the tax cuts because the economy was already good, IMO, and it adds money to a sector of the economy that had plenty of cash (and was thus not a factor in growth), and of course there was no corresponding cut in spending (in fact we did the opposite). So, we're now running close to $1 trillion per year in deficits. If the economy is mostly back to where we were before the tax cuts (2% GDP growth, and slightly lower job creation numbers)... is that good enough to justify the massive deficits we're running?
We will probably reach a deficit of 4% of GDP for 2019 - which isn't horrible, but also not good either. That could be tolerable if we were spending significantly on infrastructure improvement and creation, but we really are not.
 
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UncleTrvlingJim

UncleTrvlingJim

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We will probably reach a deficit of 4% of GDP for 2019 - which isn't horrible, but also not good either. That could be tolerable if we were spending significantly on infrastructure improvement and creation, but we really are not.
This is similar to my opinion. I’m not against deficits, but they should be buying something beneficial in the long term. Infrastructure, scientific advancements or something along those lines. I’m also good with a deficit to prop up the economy during recessions.

Now, I’m not saying the tax cuts did no good. I think an examination of job growth and GDP will note an acceleration, but it appears it was pretty small and at the moment temporary. It’s main benefit has been to offset the costs of the trade war I think. So, in order for it to be worth it, then we need major concessions in the trade war to justify however many trillions of debt we’re adding. I think that will be difficult to quantify.
 

wardorican

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We will probably reach a deficit of 4% of GDP for 2019 - which isn't horrible, but also not good either. That could be tolerable if we were spending significantly on infrastructure improvement and creation, but we really are not.
Agreed. That's what China has been doing since we've been in Iraq and Afghanistan. I had some hope that that tax cut deal would leave off the wealthy, and be a little less favorable for corporations, in order to cover infrastructure expenses.

but when his plan was "private funding and more state funding" I knew is was garbage. A real wasted opportunity while money is cheap.
 

dtc

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We will probably reach a deficit of 4% of GDP for 2019 - which isn't horrible, but also not good either. That could be tolerable if we were spending significantly on infrastructure improvement and creation, but we really are not.
Given the facts you quote which are likely understated, I agree, but "We are not"!

It is horrible.

It's immoral.

We are borrowing from our children in order that we don't have to pay our share today.

10 years ago you would find me on the old board saying that the boomers ruined our nation by voting themselves tax cuts while spending lavishly on themselves. Today, our generation can't be excluded from blame because we've been too stupid, too greedy and too shortsighted to deal with it. Even given the crash of 09, we still remain stupid.

Sad.
 

Joe Okc

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This is a real problem that nobody is addressing. At least that I see.
I'd like to say something. This my biggest concern.. If you actually knew... Not only am I greatly concerned about, but it frightens me to my core.

I am on the road with a tablet, there will be errors so please bear with me. But I want to say something about me so you will understand.

When I ride my motorcycle I never ever set a tire on the interstate. I take small local highways throughout all these small towns. I have logged many a mile and probably 20 states. I have seen these town's. I have seen how the town's were built either around a town square or one or two streets around what used to the railroad.

I notice how the town's are laid out, I picturenhow it used to be. How the roads went and how people traveled and I can picture how these town's were back in the day. How life was. I see where the l9cal facto ry was that brought the ecomy to the town. I pay attention to the architecture.

For some reason I have always been a history buff. I collect items from WWII. I have a room that is a museum. MY collection is not just limited to helmets and bayonets, but I have items, pictures and letters from the 40's of the USA Home front. Please go look at the what do you collect thread on sr.com.
I enjoy reading the letters from home to the soldiers, and letters from the soldiers home. Printed nf9rmation, flyers etc.

The manufacturing, moral, unity, patriotism was unreal. When the war hit out manufacturing went from peacetime time to wartime production. Our manufacturing went into over drive.We made what we needed.
Our country grew gardens even way before the war. We canned our own goods, smoked and stored our meats.

Part of all this also includes items from the 30's that had some war connection. Items from the depression I own tell a story like no other... Home front items from the 1900's, 1910's, 1920's that have a story with me and I own specific items from those time periods for specific reason. Such as sheet music from 1908. I have pictures from the past I view.

I know I am rambling. But ... when I say I ride my motorcycle through small towns. I pay a little more attention to things than most do or would.

Back in those days if you had something from China or Japan you had a real treasure, a high dollar import. Our country was strong, we made things. We had hardware stores owned by Mr and Mrs Jones. A grocery store owned by Mr and Mrs Smith. A lumber yard owned by Mr. And Mrs Black. An appliance store by Uncle James.

All our equipment, cars, appliances were made in the USA. Real estate was reasonable.

Now as you say. Those store fronts are empty. Mr. And Mrs Jones. Grocery was torn down to be re0laced by a corporate chain. The appliance store was replaced by a walmart... And our once great manufacturing is almost gone.. The treasured import from China is now cheap plastic junk. I dont even think that the US makes a simple radio anymore... And real estate uas gone byond reasonably priced that Mr and Mrs. SMITH cannot afford to rent a building for thier store...Only large corps can afford to just build, and import more junk...

Scared... I am beyond scared.. Sad am I..Hurt am I.... But the worst is yet to come.And it really frightens me to the core.

The day is gonna come that WWIII does happen. It's is mankind's destiny. Man has fought on this planet since the beginning of time. To say it won't is fooling yourself. Mankind has fought it's entire time on this planet. If I had to speculate it will be when we start running out of petroleum and countries start invading others for oil. And there will be nuclear devices used most likely.

And during that time the imports will stop. And with it parts to our cars, tractors and other equipment. We won't have appliances parts for them... We won't even have simple radios since we are not producing them anymore... And we won't have any manufacturing to go into war production... We won't even have enough manufacturing to sustain our our country for the simple items we will need for the nessecities of living.

Our kids today don't even know how to grow or can a pickle, and if 8t gets t9 the point there 8s no internet or electricity there will be now way they could learn unless they stored a set of encyclopedias somewhere.

And we will be stuck with nothing left but cheap Chinese plastic junk...

I know I rambled... but mt15 I agree with you all my heart and soul. This is the problem that no one is addressing... if we as a nation do not do something now to get Manufactoring going in the USA, and get small business able to buy, sell and maintain our own goods. Support these small towns, with out nation moving into the city to work for McDonald's or w almart. We have to have grocery stores selling and producingn local goods and operated by Mr. And mrs. Jones again.

The day is going to come that we will need to rely on ourselves for survival and it just won't happen. And the country that is able 5o manufacture goods for its people will survive and the country that does not will lose.
 

MT15

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Yes, Joe, you are correct in what you say. We as a nation haven’t done a good job during this economical transition period we are in.

while the economy is changing, we left the people of these small towns out of the loop. We have basically ignored them. The lucky ones just left. The more vulnerable are stuck in towns that would be recognizable in some third world countries.

But how do we fix it? We’re not going back to the old days. That’s like the people who used to rail against the automobile or the cotton gin. Can’t think of what they were called. Edit: Luddites?

IMO, we need to do better at coming up with modern solutions. We need to invest heavily in newer forms of energy, come up with newer ways for people to survive without a college degree. Working at McDonald’s or Walmart isn’t enough.

The democrat from Colorado, I think, or maybe Ohio, talked about how we are already losing this edge to China. That we need to be on the forefront of making solar panels, electric vehicles, etc. These factories could replace the small factories in the heartland. He said that basically somebody is going to manufacture all the electric batteries that we are going to need in the near future, it may as well be us.

We are not going back to coal or steel though, and we can’t go back to the way it was. What we do need to do is look forward and try to help the small towns come up with new ways to survive. Not everyone is suited to living in a major metropolitan area, they don’t want to live there and they shouldn‘t have to sacrifice their financial future if they don’t want to leave the town where they grew up.

Trump has tapped into some of this sentiment, but IMHO he doesn’t really have the ideas nor the will to follow through. It’s just convenient slogans to him, I think.

We all have a lot more in common than differences, if you really think about it.
 

Joe Okc

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We all have a lot more in common than differences, if you really think about it.
It is way more complex and extensive than just jobs for the small towns.

Imagine if every import from China, Japan Vietnam and Asia just stopped today. Really think about that.
Our store shelves would be virtually empty. Our American cars Ford, dodge, Chevy and harleys would have no parts.. Basic essential would be unavailable likes plate, knives and fork... brooms...

The amount of items from China that we use today on a daily basis is unreal.. I Wonder what percentage of all items in America today is made somewhere else? 75%.

Our nation lives on W almart, Dollar General and dollar tree.

One things about me being in the bar business for 30 years... I always continue to look for property to open a new bar... And it's vanishing fast... LIKE I said . Rents on property are exceeding the point that you can't rent it.... only large corps can afford to buy and build...

Interestingly, we do hav3 a lot in common. I listen to th3 Democratic candidate. I consider what they say with an open mind... But I don't see them trying to address these issues.
And please everyone... I don't 3nt to argue or debate ornruin this thread. But I am really soured on the democrats because of how they have acted since 2016. As a party they have acted like a bunch of spoiled upset brats. Trump at times acts like a spoiled brat too, yes I agree...

I really wish a third party would rise, but unfortunately the last time a third party rose.... America put it's children on Trains in these small towns in 1942.
 

Saintamaniac

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All of this is a result of the dark side of Capitalism. The mom and pop stores died because they couldn't compete with larger stores that were able to buy in bulk for a lower price and sell at a lower price than the mom and pops. Same thing with the local manufacturing jobs. Those jobs moved to areas where it was cheaper to produce to allow for more profit. Automation reduced manufacturing jobs. Greed became a good thing. The greedy even managed to convince a large segment of the country that the organizations that helped them get better wages and working conditions were bad because it drove up prices. It's not going to stop. It's only going to get worst.
 

JimEverett

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All of this is a result of the dark side of Capitalism. The mom and pop stores died because they couldn't compete with larger stores that were able to buy in bulk for a lower price and sell at a lower price than the mom and pops. Same thing with the local manufacturing jobs. Those jobs moved to areas where it was cheaper to produce to allow for more profit. Automation reduced manufacturing jobs. Greed became a good thing. The greedy even managed to convince a large segment of the country that the organizations that helped them get better wages and working conditions were bad because it drove up prices. It's not going to stop. It's only going to get worst.
I think it is really simplistic to blame it on greed.
For one thing, automation was and is, to some degree at least, inevitable.
But more than that - there were real decisions being that made that focused on the consumer that led to some of the problems our economy is seeing as a whole and in particular rural/small ton America is seeing. To put it sort of simply - the general idea of our economic policy for at least the last 50 years has been to encourage as much consumption as possible. That has taken the form of helping businesses - through trade deals, through tax incentives/breaks/policy, through policies advocating low interest rates, etc - become more efficient and able to offer goods (and more recently, services) at the low rates.
That is not greed - and it is not even necessarily seeing business profits as being above people (although there is some of that - its just not a necessary part of the general economic policy). Its just a choice of being pro-consumer.

It has also worked - and worked quite well.

It was also recognized fairly early on in this pro-consumer push that many workers would be displaced. This led to the high emphasis on college education and also to certain re-training programs, although arguably the latter has trailed far behind the former. That has also worked to an extent - but is also partly why there is this huge move of people to a relatively small number of huge metropolises and further displaces small town America.
 

V Chip

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Hey Joe, I've enjoyed reading your last few posts in this thread. I like this version of Joe. :) Thanks for these posts.

So I hope you don't take this wrong when I point out a disagreement with something you said in here. Overall these posts have been great. But here we go...
But I am really soured on the democrats because of how they have acted since 2016. As a party they have acted like a bunch of spoiled upset brats. Trump at times acts like a spoiled brat too, yes I agree...

I really wish a third party would rise, but unfortunately the last time a third party rose.... America put it's children on Trains in these small towns in 1942.
This is a thing I don't get as much. You say you think Democrats have been acting like spoiled brats since 2016. While I disagree, I understand the conservative viewpoint on this especially since this idea has been pushed hard in right-biased media.

However, to me the Republicans have been acting far more bratty, since 2008 and even before. I don't see how someone can be honest and say it's the Democrats who have been acting poorly when the Republicans have stated publicly and proudly that from day 1 of the Obama administration they would oppose every single thing he proposed, no matter what it was or who it helped or hurt, just to damage his Presidency. They actually said the same thing from day one of the Clinton administration, but it just wasn't publicly stated (in fact, it was a Republican point of emphasis from the day Clinton was elected to try and get him impeached -- not many people know that, but behind the scenes it was talked about in strategy meetings of Republican leadership).

I know we all have our biases -- but given the facts of what each party has done the last 30-40 years, I don't understand how anyone can honestly think the Democrats are the ones acting "bratty." At the best one might argue the two are closely similar, but even then I think its a huge stretch to claim that.

I hope you don't take this as an attack or a big disagreement. I'm hoping this can at least lead to an opportunity to consider that your take that the Democrats are the worst offenders is not factual.
 

efil4

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It is way more complex and extensive than just jobs for the small towns.

Imagine if every import from China, Japan Vietnam and Asia just stopped today. Really think about that.
Our store shelves would be virtually empty. Our American cars Ford, dodge, Chevy and harleys would have no parts.. Basic essential would be unavailable likes plate, knives and fork... brooms...

The amount of items from China that we use today on a daily basis is unreal.. I Wonder what percentage of all items in America today is made somewhere else? 75%.

Our nation lives on W almart, Dollar General and dollar tree.


One things about me being in the bar business for 30 years... I always continue to look for property to open a new bar... And it's vanishing fast... LIKE I said . Rents on property are exceeding the point that you can't rent it.... only large corps can afford to buy and build...

Interestingly, we do hav3 a lot in common. I listen to th3 Democratic candidate. I consider what they say with an open mind... But I don't see them trying to address these issues.
And please everyone... I don't 3nt to argue or debate ornruin this thread. But I am really soured on the democrats because of how they have acted since 2016. As a party they have acted like a bunch of spoiled upset brats. Trump at times acts like a spoiled brat too, yes I agree...

I really wish a third party would rise, but unfortunately the last time a third party rose.... America put it's children on Trains in these small towns in 1942.
no the "nation" doesnt live on those.....its those that dont make a decent wage living. Folks are basically "forced" to shop there for staples because they cannot afford much else. I dont buy my groceries from Dollar General, but when i do go in, inevitably there is a cart in front of me doing just that.

Then you have Dollar Tree/Dollar General items of "convenience". Instead of driving to PetSmart 18 miles away for cat food, Dollar Store is 3 miles down the road. IT comes down to convenience for many.

So ask yourself why is that? ITs because every individual is programmed to maximize their personal wealth. From the guy making 30k to the guy making 300k a year. When it comes to personal finance, both guys are looking to maximize what they can spend their earned money on. Its a lot easier for the guy earning 300k. Thats obvious. So what about the guy making 30k?

so the next time you see a tax cut that enables the corporations and the wealthy to simply garner more wealth, you may want to think twice. Just because you are for tax increases ( or against a tax cut ) doesnt make you a Liberal or Democrat. What you realized in the most recent tax cut is 1/5 of what i realized. So why should efil see more disposable income than Joe Okc?
It makes you an informed, conscious human. That understands the plight of those around you.

When you are in the "bar" business, you are pigeon-holed by demographics ( including but not limited to zoning ) . So its not as simple as spotting a strip mall and saying " hmmm id like a bar there". Well, what are your margins? overhead? taxes? insurance? IF you are a neighborhood bar, do you need to be located in a building paying $1500/mo rent? or can you do same business in one paying $600? Can that same location attract the same customers? There are 100s of questions and the answers arent as simple as "only large corps can afford...". Thats simply not true. You cant afford doesnt mean the next guy in the bar business cant make it there. Maybe his margins are better thru purchasing agreements, negotiating, scale etc.

So using your own anecdotes ( micro ) to apply to a larger scale ( macro ) doesnt work. You have to remove that bias and look at from a macro perspective.

Walmart, Dollar General etc arent the sole villains here. Wage stagnation, tax cuts for the wealthy/corps, deficit spending etc play a HUGE role in a macro environment.

No doubt that the business cycle is part of the equation. A business owner is looking to maximize profit/revenue too. So now we have the individual AND the business that provides the individual with goods/services BOTH attempting to accomplish a goal. The key is finding the middle.
 

efil4

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It was also recognized fairly early on in this pro-consumer push that many workers would be displaced. This led to the high emphasis on college education and also to certain re-training programs, although arguably the latter has trailed far behind the former. That has also worked to an extent - but is also partly why there is this huge move of people to a relatively small number of huge metropolises and further displaces small town America.
This too. Talk to any young person in a rural small-town. The objective is to get out. Shoot, movies "glorify" this. Media glorifies this. Thereby reducing the viable population. Most parents of kids in a rural small town want their kids to "succeed".

Success now isnt a 3br 2 bath home sitting in the town you grew up in, working at the local Savings and Loan pulling in $38k a year.

But it used to be.

Times have changed for sure. In a relatively short span. Technology didnt cause it....but it exacerbated for sure.
 

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We will probably reach a deficit of 4% of GDP for 2019 - which isn't horrible, but also not good either. That could be tolerable if we were spending significantly on infrastructure improvement and creation, but we really are not.
I have what is probably a simple economic question, but it's something I've always wondered about but never really understood or studied. Why is the deficit/debt always compared/contrasted to the GDP of a country and not the revenue the government brings in through taxes and other means? And why is that the right way to compare it? It just seems odd to me since the country isn't responsible for nor does it own all of that GDP, but it is responsible for all of it's debt/deficit.

PS, I'm only quoting Jim because he made the comparison, but anybody can answer.
 

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