RFK's campaign (will run as independent/third-party) (4 Viewers)

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    samiam5211

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    It looks like he's going to be on the ticket in November. I think he should get his own thread. He's about to become well funded, and it's going to be a professionally run campaign no doubt. I don't think it's out of the question that he get's Perot like numbers, and even if he get's 1/4 of that it could be a disaster for the Biden campaign that is probably looking at a few thousand votes in a few states turning the election anyway.

    There is going to be money behind this campaign from all sorts of angles. No matter what anyone thinks about RFK, it would be a terrible mistake to not take this campaign seriously. He might take some from Trump for sure, but he's going to take more of the anti Trump vote from Biden, and Biden can't really spare any votes. Not all people who were going to vote for Biden would disagree with the things RFK has said about vaccines, and he's not going to be spending his time campaigning on just vaccine skepticism.

    There are many more people voting for Biden who aren't enthusiastic about Biden than there are on the other side.

    Asuper PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has begun polling his support as an Independent, one of the strongest indications to date that the long-shot Democrat is set to announce a party affiliation switch.

    The poll, conducted by the firm John Zogby Strategies and commissioned by the American Values 2024 PAC, comes amid growing speculation — fueled by Kennedy himself — that he will leave the Democratic Party in the upcoming weeks.
    Click to expand...
     
    UriUT said:
    You think too highly of Bannon and Stone and their respect for voters. Yes, precisely because he's a Democrat and his name is a Kennedy. They don't care if Kennedy reaches .5% of the votes. As long as it takes some away in close swing states. Why would Bannon, who clearly wants Trump to win, promote Kennedy, and encourages him to run? And yes, when Trump declares that he was the reason for the success of the vaccine, Charlie Kirk hyperventilated that he would now lose votes to Kennedy.

    And that is the level of deceit in south Florida. Ghost democratic candidates were created to take away votes from the incumbent democratic candidates. One succeeded.
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    I'm in agreement. I know polls are not 100% scientific,but history does show they are fairly accurate when it comes
    to predicting political races. All it will take is a few swing states to vote for Trump. The latest one from CBS shows
    Trump with a 3% lead in Georgia. That would be a swing of 32 electoral votes if Georgia goes red this election. I am
    very concerned what the current polling shows.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-biden-georgia-2024-cbs-news/
     
    faceman said:
    I'm in agreement. I know polls are not 100% scientific,but history does show they are fairly accurate when it comes to predicting political races.
    Click to expand...

    Maybe prior to 2016. (my opinion only) 3% is basically 50/50 these days. I'd say maybe even 4%. But at 5% ahead, I would be concerned
     
    zztop said:
    (This was from last October)
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    Yes, but the polling I posted from The Hill earlier in thread showed more voters were pulled from Biden. It was more recent. I don’t believe most polls. I suspect - can’t prove it - that the GOP is flooding the zone with crappy polls showing Trump leading so that when he loses he can start the “rigged election” crap up and point to all these polls.

    Polls since 2016 have underestimated Dem performance. It’s not a one-off, it’s a trend.
     
    fortune.com

    Pollsters got it wrong in 2018, 2020, and 2022. Here’s why political polling is no more than statistical sophistry

    Drama-seeking pollsters have turned into pundits. Here's why they're failing to predict election outcomes, according to Yale's Sonnenfeld and Tian.
    fortune.com fortune.com

    This article does a good job detailing why polling is so difficult. (Sonnenfeld coincidentally is the Yale professor who tracks Russian sanctions).

    Of course turnout is important regardless of polling accuracy. But what immediately stands out is below.

    Sampling methods​

    Pew has documented that telephone response rates have fallen below 9% which is not considered close to valid measurement in any social science fields. Online surveying can be more problematic as there there is no national list of email addresses from which people could be sampled.
    Click to expand...

    I saw that Dave wasserman, who i respect for his exit polling analysis, reported that only 3% of his calls were picked up. I know I have received numerous calls and sms msgs regarding polling and I won't pick up. I have accidentally picked up a few calls and immediately hang up after realizing it's polling. Polling is in a difficult spot.
     
    Thanks for this - that is a huge red flag. And from the little bit I’ve seen discussed on Twitter, pollsters are applying huge “factors” to correct their bad samples. So you have just introduced another source of error. (I don’t remember their term for it, but basically they take the raw data and adjust it by some amount in an effort to correct their samples).

    From what I have seen, the polling guys on Twitter refuse to admit they have a problem. At all.

    Ha! The commentary in the article somewhat confirms what I have been suspecting.

    “The GOP-funded Trafalgar Group, as Slate showed, not just heavily failed in their overall calls but wrongly pronounced swings to the GOP among millennials and Hispanics when the opposite happened.

    Two years ago, the New York Times warned that “Trafalgar does not disclose its methods, and is considered far too shadowy by other pollsters to be taken seriously.” Undeterred, however, polling aggregator Nate Silver’s site rated them an A-.”
     
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    faceman said:
    I'm in agreement. I know polls are not 100% scientific,but history does show they are fairly accurate when it comes
    to predicting political races. All it will take is a few swing states to vote for Trump. The latest one from CBS shows
    Trump with a 3% lead in Georgia. That would be a swing of 32 electoral votes if Georgia goes red this election. I am
    very concerned what the current polling shows.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-biden-georgia-2024-cbs-news/
    Click to expand...
    For whatever it's worth, Trump severely underperformed in atl's suburbs. It's the same trend as 2020 when he lost white college educated voters, particularly women. However, it's a far cry from certainty as to what will happen in nov, as turnout, with its adjacent enthusiasm, will determine the result.
     
    UriUT said:
    For whatever it's worth, Trump severely underperformed in atl's suburbs. It's the same trend as 2020 when he lost white college educated voters, particularly women. However, it's a far cry from certainty as to what will happen in nov, as turnout, with its adjacent enthusiasm, will determine the result.
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    Nothing has happened since 2020 to bring those women back to Trump either.
     
    MT15 said:
    Nothing has happened since 2020 to bring those women back to Trump either.
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    Nothing? Are you sure? Republicans are .... "trying". :hihi:

    1710425019714.png
     
    UriUT said:
    For whatever it's worth, Trump severely underperformed in atl's suburbs. It's the same trend as 2020 when he lost white college educated voters, particularly women. However, it's a far cry from certainty as to what will happen in nov, as turnout, with its adjacent enthusiasm, will determine the result.
    Click to expand...
    Yep,same for Herschel Walker in the senate race. He conceded the race when he learned the only remaining votes
    not counted were from the Atlanta suburbs and proper
     
    Maxp said:
    The only people I know who speak about supporting RFK Jr are men who have a predilection for believing conspiracies and would NEVER vote for Biden. They don't like Trump either, but somehow dislike Trump less than Biden.
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    So by that criteria that would mean 90% of the posters here support RFK Jr because yall believed the Trump is a Russian agent conspiracy theory that was started by Hillary & her long time operative Charles Dolan who was a source of the discredited Steele Dossier.
     
    SaintForLife said:
    So by that criteria that would mean 90% of the posters here support RFK Jr because yall believed the Trump is a Russian agent conspiracy theory that was started by Hillary & her long time operative Charles Dolan who was a source of the discredited Steele Dossier.
    Click to expand...
    Bless your heart. 🤣🤣🤪🤡
     
    SaintForLife said:
    So by that criteria that would mean 90% of the posters here support RFK Jr because yall believed the Trump is a Russian agent conspiracy theory that was started by Hillary & her long time operative Charles Dolan who was a source of the discredited Steele Dossier.
    Click to expand...
    And?
     
    SaintForLife said:
    So by that criteria that would mean 90% of the posters here support RFK Jr because yall believed the Trump is a Russian agent conspiracy theory that was started by Hillary & her long time operative Charles Dolan who was a source of the discredited Steele Dossier.
    Click to expand...

    Russia took action to help Trump get elected.

    Trump welcomed that help.

    Russian money kept Trump's businesses going in the 2000s, just ask Eric.

    All of the above are objectively true.
     
    SFIDC3 said:
    I believe since Dobbs that it won't only bring those women back, he will lose a whole lot more of them, many which typically don't vote....I think it will be women that will preserve democracy....
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    I agree here. Some women will vote for Trump simply because he has an R by his name. He will never get the majority
    of the college educated women.

    I'm also getting a tad more comfortable with the polls. The majority of them show Trump is trailing in the
    womens vote.We always knew this. He's also trailing in the moderate vote. He has no chance if he doesn't
    win the moderate vote and it's unlikely he does.
     
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