All things political. Coronavirus Edition. (14 Viewers)

SaintForLife said:

Supply commitments are one thing, but at our current pace of administering the vaccine we should have half of the country at least partially vaccinated by August.

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this data is out of date. It stops on Jan. 13. We’ve been close to 2 million doses a day for a bit, until the weather problems hit.

Adding from the CDC website more recent data

cuddlemonkey said:

I'm kind of leaning towards masking full-time moving forward.

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DaveXA said:

I believe masking in public has been a fairly common thing in a number of countries. Don't know the percentages or effectiveness, but seeing masks in public i suspect will remain commonplace here for a while.

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Yea, I actually bought some non-boring masks expecting a decent lag between when I'm immunized and when masking at large slows down. But, I have a friend who is of the same "full time mask" mindset going forward. I don't know that I'd go that far, but I have a new appreciation for the areas where masking when you're sick is the rule, not the exception.

MT15 said:

this data is out of date. It stops on Jan. 13. We’ve been close to 2 million doses a day for a bit, until the weather problems hit.

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Unless I'm reading it wrong, it says that the data for January 13th was unavailable. It didn't stop on January 13th. It was up to February 21st. Here's the current one:


Only half of the US population would be vaccinated by mid July. As Osterholm pointed out that by the end of March only 30 million out of 54 million people over 65 years old would have a drop of the vaccine.

When you take that into account as well as people who had Covid already could become infected with Covid due to the new variants it supports Osterholm's view that another big spike of Covid cases is coming.

superchuck500 said:

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Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, ignored federal guidelines and prioritized getting senior citizens — one of Florida’s most potent voting blocs — vaccinated first.


What am I missing here?

DaveXA said:

If you figure we've been vaccinating people at a million+ per day, and with more vaccines coming online, we should be seeing 1.5 to 2 million/day before long. That's a lot of people getting vaccinated. If we're talking say 200 million adults, most of those who want to get vaccinated will be able to do so within the next 5-6 months. That's just math. Now there may be bottlenecks that can slow things down, but once the logistics kinks get ironed out, I think we'll see increasing numbers of people getting vaccinated in pretty short order.

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5 to 6 months is a more of realistic time frame. That's quite different than thinking most people will be vaccinated by the summer.

Okay, I see that, thanks SFL. So I think I see the issue. For one, it’s calculating on total population, including children, it seems to me.

And, it’s assuming an average of 800,000 doses per day. We are far exceeding that now. You can see from the chart I posted from the CDC that we were averaging 1.6 million doses per day before the weather hit. The briefing today talked about a significant increase of available doses within the next couple of weeks as well.

Adult pop. in US is what, about 200 million? We could be close to that in 100 days if we can sustain that 2 million per day rate which will be possible shortly. So I would say we can see benefits from herd immunity by mid summer, and that most people who want a vaccination will at least have their first shot by then. My state is already seeing benefits with the 70+ crowd.

We are also not seeing a lot of reinfection just yet from these variants. It may still happen, but I would think we would be seeing it in some locations by now. I think there is reason to be cautiously optimistic here.

SaintForLife said:

Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, ignored federal guidelines and prioritized getting senior citizens — one of Florida’s most potent voting blocs — vaccinated first.


What am I missing here?

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You are missing the allegations that he is going out of his way to target wealthy communities with the vaccines, rather than poorer elderly. Rewarding people who developed exclusive housing additions that are his political donors with custom vaccination sites, and making other seniors compete in a free for all on the state web site.

SaintForLife said:

5 to 6 months is a more of realistic time frame. That's quite different than thinking most people will be vaccinated by the summer.

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Well, first, the chart you're using assumes including children. I'm talking about adults. And 5-6 months from now is July-Aug. May-June is optimistic, but I think doable, at least for a good majority of the adults.

It looks like one graph mentions first doses and the other overall doses per day.

MT15 said:

You are missing the allegations that he is going out of his way to target wealthy communities with the vaccines, rather than poorer elderly. Rewarding people who developed exclusive housing additions that are his political donors with custom vaccination sites, and making other seniors compete in a free for all on the state web site.

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Considering Florida is a big retirement state is it surprising that some of those communities are wealthy too? Seniors account for the majority of severe Covid cases and deaths so who cares if some of the Seniors are wealthy?

DaveXA said:

Well, first, the chart you're using assumes including children. I'm talking about adults. And 5-6 months from now is July-Aug. May-June is optimistic, but I think doable, at least for a good majority of the adults.

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Either way it's past the time frame that Osterholm gives for the variants to cause another big Covid spike.

SaintForLife said:

Considering Florida is a big retirement state is it surprising that some of those communities are wealthy too? Seniors account for the majority of severe Covid cases and deaths so who cares if some of the Seniors are wealthy?

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The allegations are that he is making special efforts to give wealthy seniors preferential treatment, especially those who live in communities developed by his political donors. You honestly see nothing wrong with this, if true?

J-DONK said:

The adult population in this country is around 200 million. There is no currently approved vaccine for children.

I also didn't include the J&J vaccine, and it could be approved for use next week. That's going to add to these numbers. We are quickly going to be down to the anti-vaxxers.

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Sorry, I missed that you said Adult.

SaintForLife said:

5 to 6 months is a more of realistic time frame. That's quite different than thinking most people will be vaccinated by the summer.

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5-6 months vs summer is almost the same time frame though. Technically we're 4 months from the beginning of summer, but Summer would be the 4-6 month range. So, might be splitting hairs here. Think everyone is meaning the same general idea.

MT15 said:

You are missing the allegations that he is going out of his way to target wealthy communities with the vaccines, rather than poorer elderly. Rewarding people who developed exclusive housing additions that are his political donors with custom vaccination sites, and making other seniors compete in a free for all on the state web site.

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So far, I'd honestly say they're weak allegations. I'd need to know more details about the pop ups, but it seems like more rural counties have had a higher percentage of people vaccinated than the big urban centers, however, the urban centers have a ton more total given out.

Also, let's consider that Miami Dade, Broward, and other metro areas are also going to have a lot more medical folks who were first in line, so it will take longer to get to seniors in those areas.

I'm not sure how much effort is being exerted towards low income areas, however. I'm a bit blind to the vaccine game until I can sign up myself.

And the article also goes out of their way to attack the idea of giving it to seniors first, vs certain 'essential workers', but part of that actually makes sense. Essential workers is a very broad term. I'm an essential worker by definition, but in reality, it's bull shirt.

I'm not blind to know that DeSantis has a 'buddy buddy' sort of vibe. But, if the problem is logistics, and it's getting it done, so long as it isn't blatent favoritism, screw it. Whatever gets more shots in more arms faster.

wardorican said:

So far, I'd honestly say they're weak allegations. I'd need to know more details about the pop ups, but it seems like more rural counties have had a higher percentage of people vaccinated than the big urban centers, however, the urban centers have a ton more total given out.

Also, let's consider that Miami Dade, Broward, and other metro areas are also going to have a lot more medical folks who were first in line, so it will take longer to get to seniors in those areas.

I'm not sure how much effort is being exerted towards low income areas, however. I'm a bit blind to the vaccine game until I can sign up myself.

And the article also goes out of their way to attack the idea of giving it to seniors first, vs certain 'essential workers', but part of that actually makes sense. Essential workers is a very broad term. I'm an essential worker by definition, but in reality, it's bull shirt.

I'm not blind to know that DeSantis has a 'buddy buddy' sort of vibe. But, if the problem is logistics, and it's getting it done, so long as it isn't blatent favoritism, screw it. Whatever gets more shots in more arms faster.

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There's also criticism of it mostly going to whites, but it's also the national trend.

The race to vaccinate as many people as possible while more contagious coronavirus variants march across America is colliding with lagging efforts to steer shots to people of color and underserved communities bearing the brunt of the pandemic.

Though the Biden administration has prioritized equitable vaccine distribution, putting that goal into practice is difficult. Local public health officials are under pressure to quickly distribute their limited supplies and reach high-risk groups first in line. So far, limited data continues to show that people in hard-hit minority communities are getting vaccinated at a much slower pace than people in wealthier white ones.

...The state will be getting four federally backed vaccination hubs in low-income communities of color. The locales were selected through a federal “vulnerability” index, which other communities are also using to figure out where to concentrate resources.

The concern about getting lots of people immunized to stay ahead of the variants is real, clashing with equity demands. Marcus Plescia, chief medical officer for the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, said states are under a lot of pressure to move as quickly as possible through priority groups. “That’s not an approach that results in a lot of equity,” he said.

...Getting thousands of people with cars to a sports stadium is easier than getting hundreds — or maybe sometimes only dozens — to a vaccine clinic at a church.