Law Enforcement Reform Thread (formerly Defund the Police) (8 Viewers)

MT15 said:

lapaz, you started your “proof” with a completely made up number that 80% of the time that police kill somebody they are attempting to arrest murderers. This is my best recollection because that was a long time ago in the thread and I’m not going back over the whole thing. There’s no basis for this number, it just seemed right to you. You admitted it was an assumption. Everything you did after that was tainted by this made up assumption.

You can’t just pick a number, and then use it to do calculations and then say those calculations have any validity at all. I know you think it’s reasonable, or more precisely that it feels reasonable to you, but thats not how science works, even the social sciences. (Sorry Oye, I take crap from the physicists and chemists, so a poor biologist has to give crap to the social scientists. )

You are arguing based on something you made up. And you are doing it with someone who has studied the criminal justice system for more than 10 years, and who has authored papers on this subject.

Sometimes, you just feel like you know something, but you really don’t know it. Or rather it’s really not the way you think it is. I think this is one of those times.

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I made some assumptions that weren’t crazy since 82.4% of killings do occur during violent crime arrests. I addressed the errors pointed out, and then I recalculated based on the percentages posted for violent crime in 2015 to eliminate that assumption, and the result still proves my point. I’m asking for proof of the extraordinary allegation that cops kill blacks disproportionately. It has to be the population committing crimes, not the general population. Using violent crimes is the most immune to policing bias so that’s what I used. These are my calculations, not something I’ve drawn from others, so I made a couple of mistakes, but the corrections haven’t changed my conclusion. Address my corrected calculations rather than continually trying to discredit the analysis because of early mistakes. All I keep asking for is to prove the extraordinary claim.

I think you have a belief, and you are calculating to prove you are right. It happens even to the best of us.

MT15 said:

I think you have a belief, and you are calculating to prove you are right. It happens even to the best of us.

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So show me the proof that I’m wrong. I believe it is an extraordinary claim that integrated police forces are disproportionately killing blacks. It’s been an accepted mantra, but I don’t think it holds up.

Here’s a good place to start:

MT15 said:

Here’s a good place to start:

Deaths Due to Use of Lethal Force by Law Enforcement: Findings From the National Violent Death Reporting System, 17 U.S. States, 2009–2012 - PMC

Several high-profile cases in the U.S. have drawn public attention to the use of lethal force by law enforcement (LE), yet research on such fatalities is limited. Using data from a public health surveillance system, this study examined the ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

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I read through most of the long article. It makes makes the same mistake I keep harping on. It gives percent of blacks killed as disproportionate to the population as a whole, but never comments on the killings as a percentage of crimes committed, which refutes the disproportionate point. The article treats the subject fairly for the most part, but to be accurate about police killing bias, you have to consider how often that happens per crime. The article notes that the vast majority of killings occur when arresting someone suspected of a violent crime. When you control for that, the result is cops are pretty even with the races.

I don’t think that your method is an accurate way to look at this issue at all. The number of crimes committed is not what you are really using, rather the number of people arrested.

Black people, for example, don’t have more drug use than white people, they just get arrested for it more often. So when you say you “control” for the number of crimes committed you are actually introducing bias into your numbers. Which is why the professionals don’t use that method.

There are people who do use this way of looking at it, but I don’t think you will like being lumped in with them.

But, let’s ignore this difference of opinion. How do you explain this?

“Most victims were reported to be armed (83%); however, black victims were more likely to be unarmed (14.8%) than white (9.4%) or Hispanic (5.8%) victims.”

Unarmed black people are more likely to die at the hands of police than any other category of unarmed people.

Lapaz said:

I read through most of the long article. It makes makes the same mistake I keep harping on. It gives percent of blacks killed as disproportionate to the population as a whole, but never comments on the killings as a percentage of crimes committed, which refutes the disproportionate point. The article treats the subject fairly for the most part, but to be accurate about police killing bias, you have to consider how often that happens per crime. The article notes that the vast majority of killings occur when arresting someone suspected of a violent crime. When you control for that, the result is cops are pretty even with the races.

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Your theory seems to be that most killings by cops are against alleged violent criminals. I say alleged, because it's a flawed assumption that police only challenge or arrest people who have actually committed a crime, as MT15 pointed out.

So a better way to detect a racial bias is to look only at the number of people killed during arrests or attempted arrests of people not reported for an alleged violent crime and who are unarmed. You would expect that people being killed in those instances would be zero or near zero, correct?

Cops shouldn't be in the habit of killing unarmed or people accused of non-violent crimes, should they?

Do you know how many unarmed people were killed by cops? Do you know how many people not accused of violent crimes were killed by cops? Do you know how those cop killings break out demographically?

However, the biggest flaw I see in your opinionated approach is that your entire line of thought is that a single statistic can prove a lack of black people being treated differently when they were killed by cops. All your single stat shows is the statistical occurrence of those events, it does nothing to reveal the actual treatment of each person that was killed by a cop.

One has to look at each individual case in detail to determine if blacks are being treated differently by cops while being arrested and if that difference in treatment lead to a black person being killed by a cop in a situation that a white person would likely not have been killed.

MT15 has shown that when you look just at the instances of unarmed people being killed by cops, you see a much higher occurrence among unarmed black people than any other group. Does that not give you doubt about your assumptions?

Ayo said:

i think it goes beyond that. To merely say “two different issues” makes it seem like they are equal in weight and credibility and verifiability. And they aren’t, even if they are different (and I don’t think they are) - but they aren’t. There isn't a comparability in statistical analysis. There isn’t a rigorous application of standards like “statistical significance.” There isn’t an understandings of the basics of variables and terminology.

So it’s more than merely talking about two different things, imo.

Though I am in accord with you when it comes on the lack of future constructive path

But I have a ton of resources and recommendations for people who are interested in the discussion. Granted, the specifics of police budgets and “defunding” is something I am
Really not well versed on and, as a result, have been quite hesitant and circumspective any time that particular issue comes up. I’m more comfortable with the reasons why people feel some sort of reimagining or reconceptualization is in order.

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Tbc, my comments were not to weigh one over the other, but rather that I felt you were both talking past each other. I'm inclined to think Lapaz's incessant obsessing over one data point is short sighted and doesn't really address systemic racism practiced by many police forces. There is far more useful data and statics that support the idea that blacks are treated differently by cops than other groups. But he's stuck on cop killings, and his refusal to budge seems to me an off ramp for the discussion. If he's not moving off of that, there's maybe another different discussion to be had.

I did skim through some of the other posts, and I agree that a lot of this discussion can at least help others see your perspective. So that's a good way of approaching this.

And I definitely think reimagining law enforcement should be on the table.

One of the most aggravating things about our justice system is the regressive nature of bail bonds, which traps the poor while people with means can just pay the bond and be on their way. Same thing with speeding tickets and other moving violations. Poor people get trapped, lose their license, while people with means can just pay the fine without batting an eye. That's hardly equal justice under law. It's one of the things I hate most about our criminal justice system. There is little true equality.

LA - L.A. said:

Your theory seems to be that most killings by cops are against alleged violent criminals. I say alleged, because it's a flawed assumption that police only challenge or arrest people who have actually committed a crime, as MT15 pointed out.

So a better way to detect a racial bias is to look only at the number of people killed during arrests or attempted arrests of people not reported for an alleged violent crime and who are unarmed. You would expect that people being killed in those instances would be zero or near zero, correct?

Cops shouldn't be in the habit of killing unarmed or people accused of non-violent crimes, should they?

Do you know how many unarmed people were killed by cops? Do you know how many people not accused of violent crimes were killed by cops? Do you know how those cop killings break out demographically?

However, the biggest flaw I see in your opinionated approach is that your entire line of thought is that a single statistic can prove a lack of black people being treated differently when they were killed by cops. All your single stat shows is the statistical occurrence of those events, it does nothing to reveal the actual treatment of each person that was killed by a cop.

One has to look at each individual case in detail to determine if blacks are being treated differently by cops while being arrested and if that difference in treatment lead to a black person being killed by a cop in a situation that a white person would likely not have been killed.

MT15 has shown that when you look just at the instances of unarmed people being killed by cops, you see a much higher occurrence among unarmed black people than any other group. Does that not give you doubt about your assumptions?

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My entire argument has been about cop killing, not cop treatment. There is evidence of differing treatment which I agree with. I would support changes there. However the cops are painted as racist killers, which the evidence doesn’t support.

I have used violent crime arrests in my analysis, not just alleged crimes. Over 82% of killings occur during arrests of violent crimes. I don’t have stats on how many of those arrests were unjustified because the person was innocent. I doubt it’ll be a large number since alleging a crime doesn’t justify an arrest. Cops have to have evidence to arrest someone. These are integrated workforces, so it would be an extraordinary issue if blacks were being framed disproportionately with planted or made-up evidence. I’m not referring to non-violent arrests, such as drug possession arrests. Many of you continue to talk about other things besides cop killings. All I want is evidence that cops are killing blacks disproportionately. Blacks commit far more violent crimes than their proportion of society, so we have to look at violent crime, otherwise you paint a distorted picture of those killings. The vast majority of killings occur during violent crime arrests, and it is very hard to bias that data, so that’s where I focus. I don’t think the evidence supports cops disproportionately killing violent criminals. Unfortunately, blacks are too highly represented in that group, and that may be related to other cops related matters, but that is too simplistic. The reasons are varied, but the cops are not the problem with the vast majority of societal ills.

DaveXA said:

Tbc, my comments were not to weigh one over the other, but rather that I felt you were both talking past each other. I'm inclined to think Lapaz's incessant obsessing over one data point is short sighted and doesn't really address systemic racism practiced by many police forces. There is far more useful data and statics that support the idea that blacks are treated differently by cops than other groups. But he's stuck on cop killings, and his refusal to budge seems to me an off ramp for the discussion. If he's not moving off of that, there's maybe another different discussion to be had.

I did skim through some of the other posts, and I agree that a lot of this discussion can at least help others see your perspective. So that's a good way of approaching this.

And I definitely think reimagining law enforcement should be on the table.

One of the most aggravating things about our justice system is the regressive nature of bail bonds, which traps the poor while people with means can just pay the bond and be on their way. Same thing with speeding tickets and other moving violations. Poor people get trapped, lose their license, while people with means can just pay the fine without batting an eye. That's hardly equal justice under law. It's one of the things I hate most about our criminal justice system. There is little true equality.

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I agree with most of your post, but my incessant focus on cop killings is an attempt to determine whether that narrative is true. No one has been willing to say whether they believe that is true unless they say it is true as a proportion of the population. Of course it is true as a proportion of the population, but what about the fact that blacks commit a far higher percentage of the violent crime relative to their population? If they are committing about 1/2 as many violent crimes as whites, their deaths should and do represent about half the cop killings. Cops kill double the number of whites, but cops would have to be very biased against whites to kill more than double the whites.

Once again, you are using arrest statistics not crime statistics, correct? Do you understand how that could introduce bias into your conclusions?

Here’s another aspect to think about:


“But there’s also evidence that undermines the entire premise of “cops are harder on black people because black people commit more crimes.” Study after study after study has found that police are more likely to search black motorists after a traffic stop, even though those same studies found that white motorists are far more likely to be in possession of illicit drugs or weapons. This is true all over the country — in North Carolina, in St. Louis, in Vermont, in Nashville, in Milwaukee, in San Diego and in Boston. It’s hard to come up with an explanation for that sort of disparity that doesn’t include racial bias.”

If you go to the actual article, he links the studies he cites. I remain convinced you are misusing the numbers to support your premise.

MT15 said:

Once again, you are using arrest statistics not crime statistics, correct? Do you understand how that could introduce bias into your conclusions?

Here’s another aspect to think about:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/06/04/another-excuse-police-bias-bites-dust/

“But there’s also evidence that undermines the entire premise of “cops are harder on black people because black people commit more crimes.” Study after study after study has found that police are more likely to search black motorists after a traffic stop, even though those same studies found that white motorists are far more likely to be in possession of illicit drugs or weapons. This is true all over the country — in North Carolina, in St. Louis, in Vermont, in Nashville, in Milwaukee, in San Diego and in Boston. It’s hard to come up with an explanation for that sort of disparity that doesn’t include racial bias.”

If you go to the actual article, he links the studies he cites. I remain convinced you are misusing the numbers to support your premise.

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Do you think cops are racist killers? That’s all I want y’all to answer. Then I would like the proof.

I’m case anyone else is interested.

Lapaz said:

Do you think cops are racist killers? That’s all I want y’all to answer. Then I would like the proof.

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The summarize: people are showing you ample evidence of racial bias in policing, and your response is, "Yes, but are all of the racists murders?"

Lapaz said:

Do you think cops are racist killers? That’s all I want y’all to answer. Then I would like the proof.

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No, I do not think all cops are racist killers, that’s a statement that nobody in this thread is making. Cops are not a monolithic entity, any more than any other profession. There are good and bad and everything in between. I believe the majority of police are good people, at least in my area. I know, though, that that’s not the case everywhere.

There can be no doubt there are some who are, though, some individual cops are racists and killers. And furthermore there are some departments that encourage disproportionate treatment for African Americans as a part of their culture. There are also departments where the disproportionate treatment is almost reflexive, rather than intentional.

Too often, good cops are silenced by the culture of brotherhood, that they have to back each other up no matter what happened, no matter how wrong or bad or even criminal it was. What hasn’t been realized in the past is that one bad cop, protected by his brothers, can bring down the whole department.

There are plenty of good cops, more in some districts than others, and they deserve our support. But they can no longer look the other way when their fellow cops are doing bad things. It has to be acknowledged and brought out in the open. It’s very difficult and many cops will lose their jobs, potentially. But it has to happen. Cops cannot police a populace that doesn’t trust them, that doesn’t think they’re honest. It just doesn’t work, unless you want full bore authoritarianism anyway. It won’t work in a society where the populace has rights and freedoms.

Theres plenty of proof. It’s out there. You’ve been shown already.

To think that the multi-generational community distrust of cops is without merit or hasn’t been earned by actions and policies is to have a really poor opinion of millions of Blacks going back over a hundred years.

I can’t personally fathom the audacity

Lapaz said:

Do you think cops are racist killers? That’s all I want y’all to answer. Then I would like the proof.

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Yes, some are. George Floyd's killing as exhibit A. The many social media groups with cops outright cheering cop killings of black people as exhibit B. The many cops that were caught making statements about killing black protesters during the recent protests as exhibit C.

How much proof do you need?

Lapaz said:

My entire argument has been about cop killing, not cop treatment. There is evidence of differing treatment which I agree with. I would support changes there. However the cops are painted as racist killers, which the evidence doesn’t support.

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And that is exactly the flaw with your approach. You are looking at the number of instances and make the mistake of thinking that the number of people killed by cops tells us anything about why each individual cop killed the person they killed. It doesn't.

For instance, if I tell you over 60 billions animals have been killed by citizens of the US, what does that tell you about how they were killed and the motivations behind killing them?

You're also misunderstanding what people are saying. There's a huge difference "cops are racist killers" and there is systemic racism within police departments that lead to unjustified killing of black people.

You are no more correct in assuming that no cops are racist killers, than is someone who assumes all cops are racist killers. You are just as inccorect in your assumptions as your are accusing others of being.