How I think the 2020 presdential election will turnout (1 Viewer)

This is approximately how I expect the election to turn out. I'm basing it on the observation that the primary motivation for voting has become fear and anger. In each state, I made my guess as to which party and candidate would have the greatest amount of fear and anger directed at them and gave that party and candidate a loss in that state. My guesses are based on a lot of things that have already happened, are trending to happen, and few things that I expect to happen between now and election day. I expect very narrow margins of victories in the vast majority of states, so I don't expect the popular vote to be as lopsided as the electoral college totals indicate.

I liken this to looking at a sports team's schedule and penciling in expected wins and losses. I'm not arguing that this is definitely how it will turnout. I'm not saying or thinking I'm definitely right. If anyone insists that I'm definitely wrong, then I readily concede that I'm probably wrong. This is just how I think the election will more or less turnout. If anyone would like to take a stab at how they think it will turnout, this is the tool that I used to create the election map below.

That would be the type of defeat that would be necessary to kill of Trumpism, which would make me very happy, but I just don't see all of those southern states going blue.

I think Trump's biggest downfall will be losing Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to the Democrats -- with Florida being the early fatal blow. I don't see any southern states going blue other than Florida and Virginia.

I think an absolute shocker of the night could go to Texas going to the Democrats, albeit by tens of thousands of votes. I honestly think we could see it happen, but safe bet is R there until we get some consistency.

Even though my predictions see a much more competitive race, it still ends with Trump losing in a landslide:

Heathen said:

I think Trump's biggest downfall will be losing Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to the Democrats -- with Florida being the early fatal blow. I don't see any southern states going blue other than Florida and Virginia.

I think an absolute shocker of the night could go to Texas going to the Democrats, albeit by tens of thousands of votes. I honestly think we could see it happen, but safe bet is R there until we get some consistency.

Even though my predictions see a much more competitive race, it still ends with Trump losing in a landslide:

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I agree. I'd be willing to bet my left foot that Trump takes Louisiana in a landslide. Same with most of the deep south with Georgia and Florida being the possible exceptions. I didn't make a map but mine would look nearly identical to yours with Texas maybe being a battleground state. I've seen it as purple on many maps projecting the election. Of course, it's still way too early for concrete predictions.

insidejob said:

I agree. I'd be willing to bet my left foot that Trump takes Louisiana in a landslide. Same with most of the deep south with Georgia and Florida being the possible exceptions. I didn't make a map but mine would look nearly identical to yours with Texas maybe being a battleground state. I've seen it as purple on many maps projecting the election. Of course, it's still way too early for concrete predictions.

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Agreed. Jesus Christ would lose to Trump if he had a D behind his name. No way Trump loses here unfortunately. I actually think Biden flips Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. Although I left them light red, I think Ohio and Texas are closer than expected. Biden is going to throw mad money at making sure Mich. and Wisc. aren't lost this cycle.

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I think the primary factors that come into play are Gun Restrictions, Lawlessness, China, and re-open the economy.

Just looking at the map and thinking about it - Trump has a very difficult road. Of course he did last time as well and still managed to pull it off.
But all the battlegrounds are states Trump won in 2016 and he has to win almost all of them to win again. It seems to me that he really needs to be able to make some blue sates competitive and I am not sure where those are: maybe Minnesota and Colorado? I know there was talk of competing in New Mexico - but that strikes me as far-fetched.
Democrats are going to put pressure on in the big midwest states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and even Iowa and Ohio. Democrats will also put pressure, of course, in Florida and North Carolina - but also Georgia and Texas. And the Democrats will compete in Arizona. Those are all resources Trump has to use.

Having said all of that - Trump ran a sort of weird campaign in 2016. He was outspent 2 to 1 or more. So maybe the conventional wisdom of money/resources does not really apply to his campaign?

A lot can happen between now and November, but the trends appear to show that Trump is weaker in states that he won handily and in the states that are considered swing or bellweather states. The 2016 race was a best case scenario for him in that he won almost all of the states where the race was close. He could win all of the states he won last time (not likely), but lose only Texas and he loses. A combination of Florida and Wisconsin going to Biden instead of Trump and he loses. But even if he holds onto Texas and Florida, there are still multiple combinations of states going to Biden in which he loses. I don't really see any of the states he lost in 2016 moving to him in 2020. My guess is that at least one or more of the larger East Coast states swings to Biden, such as Florida, Pennsylvania and/or NorthCarolina/Georgia, and by the time Michigan and Wisconsin (and maybe Ohio) go to Biden, you can add the safe western states and call the race over.

Again, a lot can change over the next several months, but I believe it would take something extraordinary for Trump to win now.

With the rate that his approval numbers are plummeting, that means some of his ardent supporters are abandoning him. They may not vote for Biden but they may sit this one out which would kill him in swing states.

Richard said:

Again, a lot can change over the next several months, but I believe it would take something extraordinary for Trump to win now.

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The longer he continues to pretend like the virus is under control and that things are going to be back to normal really soon, the more support he loses from people with eyes, ears and loved ones who've contracted this virus, killing many of them. Biden isn't even having to do anything right now and his poll numbers are dropping hard. I can't wait until the debates with a well prepared Biden squaring off against an "off the cuff because I don't have the attention span to read, study and prepare for a debate" Trump. In 2016 we laughed at Trump for not knowing what the nuclear triad was after it was just explained to him and he still got elected. We need to do more than laugh at his idiocy. We need to mobilize the vote against him and make sure that these voting machines that (I think) Ivanka has a patent for are not used in November.

Penn, Mich, and Wisc are states Trump won by less than 1% in 2016. I don’t see how he holds those. This would be my optimistic prediction for Trump.



Trump has fallen off a cliff in FL. Covid spikes in FL, Arizona, and Texas with R governors parroting Trump is going to be interesting to watch. Even Iowa may go blue. There isn’t going to election fatigue this year do to Covid. That bodes well for Biden. I could see a 5M popular vote win for Biden.

Florida is going to be key like usual. I think if Biden selects Demings it'll help grab some more votes in Florida, as well as a possible candidate to help police reform since she's been an officer herself iirc.

JimEverett said:

Just looking at the map and thinking about it - Trump has a very difficult road. Of course he did last time as well and still managed to pull it off.
But all the battlegrounds are states Trump won in 2016 and he has to win almost all of them to win again. It seems to me that he really needs to be able to make some blue sates competitive and I am not sure where those are: maybe Minnesota and Colorado? I know there was talk of competing in New Mexico - but that strikes me as far-fetched.
Democrats are going to put pressure on in the big midwest states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, and even Iowa and Ohio. Democrats will also put pressure, of course, in Florida and North Carolina - but also Georgia and Texas. And the Democrats will compete in Arizona. Those are all resources Trump has to use.

Having said all of that - Trump ran a sort of weird campaign in 2016. He was outspent 2 to 1 or more. So maybe the conventional wisdom of money/resources does not really apply to his campaign?

Click to expand...

Richard said:

A lot can happen between now and November, but the trends appear to show that Trump is weaker in states that he won handily and in the states that are considered swing or bellweather states. The 2016 race was a best case scenario for him in that he won almost all of the states where the race was close. He could win all of the states he won last time (not likely), but lose only Texas and he loses. A combination of Florida and Wisconsin going to Biden instead of Trump and he loses. But even if he holds onto Texas and Florida, there are still multiple combinations of states going to Biden in which he loses. I don't really see any of the states he lost in 2016 moving to him in 2020. My guess is that at least one or more of the larger East Coast states swings to Biden, such as Florida, Pennsylvania and/or NorthCarolina/Georgia, and by the time Michigan and Wisconsin (and maybe Ohio) go to Biden, you can add the safe western states and call the race over.

Again, a lot can change over the next several months, but I believe it would take something extraordinary for Trump to win now.

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Good points all around. Still a long road. The American Public is fickle. But COVID-19 is going to loom large. I think the biggest factor will be voter turn out.

However, going by polling... Trump is down heavy in a lot of swing states.

Michigan is +9 for Biden. The better polls have him up +13 or more.

Florida is +7 for Biden.

Arizona is +4 for Biden.

Colorado is +17 for Biden.

Minnesota doesn't have enough polling, but the latest one had Biden up +16

Nevada is +8 Biden

Ohio is +2.5 Biden.. just better than a coin flip.

Penn is +5 Biden.

Biden is up +10 in Virginia.

Biden is +6 in Wisconsin.

Trump is only +0.5 over Biden in Texas...

Heck, Georgia is a coin flip right now. On the average, Biden is +1, but that's pretty much nothing. Iowa is a coin flip too. NC is a coin flip.

So, that basically looks like this based on polling.

LA - L.A. said:

This is approximately how I expect the election to turn out. I'm basing it on the observation that the primary motivation for voting has become fear and anger. In each state, I made my guess as to which party and candidate would have the greatest amount of fear and anger directed at them and gave that party and candidate a loss in that state. My guesses are based on a lot of things that have already happened, are trending to happen, and few things that I expect to happen between now and election day. I expect very narrow margins of victories in the vast majority of states, so I don't expect the popular vote to be as lopsided as the electoral college totals indicate.

I liken this to looking at a sports team's schedule and penciling in expected wins and losses. I'm not arguing that this is definitely how it will turnout. I'm not saying or thinking I'm definitely right. If anyone insists that I'm definitely wrong, then I readily concede that I'm probably wrong. This is just how I think the election will more or less turnout. If anyone would like to take a stab at how they think it will turnout, this is the tool that I used to create the election map below.

The Road to 270: Interactive Electoral College maps

View CNN’s interactive and historic Electoral College maps to explore the votes needed to win the US presidential election.

www.cnn.com

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i hope you’re right.

But ever since 2016, i put zero stock in any poll or prediction, whether it be a guy on Saintsreport, or Nate Silver, or whatever... Right now i think it’s 50/50, the election could literally go either way.. Hell, it wouldnt surprise me if either Biden or Trump dropped dead in the next six months, or both.

I think it comes down to Arizona. I think knowing who won the night of the election is unlikely.

Ayo said:

I think it comes down to Arizona. I think knowing who won the night of the election is unlikely.

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I like Biden's odds much better in Michigan than I do in Arizona.

Brandon13 said:

I like Biden's odds much better in Michigan than I do in Arizona.

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that Trafalgar Group (who got it right in 16 in MI) poll makes me less confident in Michigan than I was

and we get Michigan channels and the Trump commercials are ubiquitous

Ayo said:

that Trafalgar Group (who got it right in 16 in MI) poll makes me less confident in Michigan than I was

and we get Michigan channels and the Trump commercials are ubiquitous

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They got it +1 to Biden, with 4% undecided.

Not sure if the voter population also skews the same, but they were heavy on older respondents.