Dow Jones Industrial Average Tops 40000 for the First Time (1 Viewer)

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    LovesMusic7360

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    The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 40000 for the first time, a milestone that appeared implausible little more than two years ago when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to cool an overheated economy.
    Gloom and doom forecasts abounded. When the central bank ended the era of ultralow rates that prevailed in the years following the global financial crisis, economists predicted painful consequences: a U.S. recession and rising unemployment.
    Markets shuddered. The Dow industrials and other equity benchmarks ended 2022 with their biggest declines since 2008, the year Lehman Brothers collapsed.
    But as the months passed, employers kept adding jobs. People kept spending, splurging on big-ticket items like cars and blowout getaways to see Taylor Swift. Inflation kept cooling. Perhaps most important, the recession predicted by so many economists hasn’t materialized, giving investors hope that stocks might keep climbing.
    “Not only didn’t we have a recession, we had a robust economy with tight labor markets, healthy consumers who were consuming,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for Northern Trust Wealth Management.



    I am so not surprised by any of this. trump wishes this happened when he was president so he could take the credit and we all know if he was president and the stock market tops 4K, he would be having a special press conference, crowing about it and taking credit for it.

    The reality is that trump crashed the stock market. We all saw another round of huge losses to our 401k accounts.

    I don't know about others, I had recovered all the trump losses by last year and have been making good gains ever since.

    What really makes me angry is that if bush the first, the bush boy and trump had not destroyed the economy while president, we all would be multi millionaire above what we now have in our 401k accounts.

    Instead we lost a lot of money for our retirement.

    It has been happening for decades. Republicans destroy the economy and stock market, democrats clean up the mess and put us back on track.

    America has the best economy in the world right now with the lowest inflation and unemployment.
     
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 40000 for the first time, a milestone that appeared implausible little more than two years ago when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to cool an overheated economy.
    Gloom and doom forecasts abounded. When the central bank ended the era of ultralow rates that prevailed in the years following the global financial crisis, economists predicted painful consequences: a U.S. recession and rising unemployment.
    Markets shuddered. The Dow industrials and other equity benchmarks ended 2022 with their biggest declines since 2008, the year Lehman Brothers collapsed.
    But as the months passed, employers kept adding jobs. People kept spending, splurging on big-ticket items like cars and blowout getaways to see Taylor Swift. Inflation kept cooling. Perhaps most important, the recession predicted by so many economists hasn’t materialized, giving investors hope that stocks might keep climbing.
    “Not only didn’t we have a recession, we had a robust economy with tight labor markets, healthy consumers who were consuming,” said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer for Northern Trust Wealth Management.



    I am so not surprised by any of this. trump wishes this happened when he was president so he could take the credit and we all know if he was president and the stock market tops 4K, he would be having a special press conference, crowing about it and taking credit for it.

    The reality is that trump crashed the stock market. We all saw another round of huge losses to our 401k accounts.

    I don't know about others, I had recovered all the trump losses by last year and have been making good gains ever since.

    What really makes me angry is that if bush the first, the bush boy and trump had not destroyed the economy while president, we all would be multi millionaire above what we now have in our 401k accounts.

    Instead we lost a lot of money for our retirement.

    It has been happening for decades. Republicans destroy the economy and stock market, democrats clean up the mess and put us back on track.

    America has the best economy in the world right now with the lowest inflation and unemployment.




    I find it fascinating that folks equate economic health to stock market. The rise in stock prices is a direct result of corporate profit. Corporate profit is a direct result of consumer spending. Consumer spending is a direct result of wages/earnings.

    But there is a disconnect- wages/earnings havent kept pace. So how does the stock market continue to reach all time highs?

    There is only one explanation.






    Congrats, i guess?

    Thats just Credit cards. Nothing about consumer loan debt.



    some of the good news is that it looks like consumers are starting to pay attention to debt - credit card and other debt ( in the chart above ) but would need to see 2 or more quarters of this to be a pattern vs anomaly. It could be that the reduction in debt is from homeowners tapping HELOC to pay off high interest cc debt or cc companies writing off bad debts unpaid.

    we will see.
     
    Last edited:
    Rattner was just saying this morning that wages have outpaced inflation for a good bit of time, now. Especially for the bottom third of earners. Only the first hit of inflation was not offset by wage increases.

     
    Rattner was just saying this morning that wages have outpaced inflation for a good bit of time, now. Especially for the bottom third of earners. Only the first hit of inflation was not offset by wage increases.



    thats in the macro.

    when you start to look into the numbers, that will give you the micro


    a 6/10ths of a % while encouraging, is still just treading water. Not a bad thing as you always want wage growth to outpace inflation by a % or so...dont want 3-5% gap as that can cause a whole other set of issues, economically.

    Its a constantly fluid, ever-changing environment that is affected by so many factors. Its why you simply cant take a snapshot of "today" and think thats where we will be tomorrow. Just like the stock market. Using it as an indicator of overall economic health isnt 100% fool proof. Which was my point on giving any President too much/too little credit regarding US economic health.

    I tend to keep it pretty close when it comes to the economy....if you didnt "crash it" you did good lol ( well your people that you appointed did good )
     
    All I know is minimum wage hasn't increased in... like 15 years..

    and this
    CFPB’s rule, which was planned to be active on Tuesday, was designed to save more than $10 billion in late fees annually by dropping the amount from $32 to $8, according to CFPB. The average saving would sit at $220 per year and would affect over 45 million who were hit with late fees, according to the agency.
     
    thats in the macro.

    when you start to look into the numbers, that will give you the micro


    a 6/10ths of a % while encouraging, is still just treading water. Not a bad thing as you always want wage growth to outpace inflation by a % or so...dont want 3-5% gap as that can cause a whole other set of issues, economically.

    Its a constantly fluid, ever-changing environment that is affected by so many factors. Its why you simply cant take a snapshot of "today" and think thats where we will be tomorrow. Just like the stock market. Using it as an indicator of overall economic health isnt 100% fool proof. Which was my point on giving any President too much/too little credit regarding US economic health.

    I tend to keep it pretty close when it comes to the economy....if you didnt "crash it" you did good lol ( well your people that you appointed did good )
    According to the link below, inflation has outpaced wages for decades. Inflation has been hovering around 2% since about the mid 90s, yet since 1979, wages have only risen about 0.7%, so for wages to exceed inflation by 6/10ths is very good.



    By most metrics (wages, unemployment, and stock market), the economy is doing well. Even inflation is creeping its way back to normal, and if wages are exceeding the inflation rate, then the current inflation rate shouldn't be a problem. The main concern I have is whether we can sustain this into the future due to the debt, deficit and the increasing cost of mandatory expenditures, since discretionary spending is only 25% of the budget. The Federal Government is fiscally troubled.
     

    1715965686174.png
     

    As of April 1, according to the latest analysis of Forbes data by the nonprofit Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF), the combined wealth of the nation’s 806 billionaires—their population rises and falls with the markets—had reached a record $5.8 trillion. That’s more than $7 billion a head and nearly double their total holdings in late 2017, when congressional Republicans unilaterally rammed through a package of widely unpopular tax “reforms” skewed in favor of America’s most affluent.
     

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