Post-Election Results Analysis (1 Viewer)

The election data is always very interesting. Let's have a thread to discuss it so that it doesn't get washed away in the gameday thread.

We always suspected that a portion of the Trump vote in 2016 will leave him based on overall distaste with his conduct as president. There appears to be some evidence of that emerging . . . here's some from Wisconsin.

superchuck500 said:

The election data is always very interesting. Let's have a thread to discuss it so that it doesn't get washed away in the gameday thread.

We always suspected that a portion of the Trump vote in 2016 will leave him based on overall distaste with his conduct as president. There appears to be some evidence of that emerging . . . here's some from Wisconsin.

Click to expand...

It seems to me Trump's numbers didn't really fall off that much. The difference is Biden increased turnout enough to flip the election. Thats my first thought anyway.

No doubt there are some who were sick of Trump's antics, but I still wonder what they did. Hold their nose for Trump? Hold their nose for Biden? They didn't stay home though. I think that much is apparent.

Trump made a 4% jump in votes ― increasing from 50.1% in 2016 to 54.1% in 2020 ― in areas highly impacted by the coronavirus

This is a serious concern

As is this

zztop said:

Trump made a 4% jump in votes ― increasing from 50.1% in 2016 to 54.1% in 2020 ― in areas highly impacted by the coronavirus

This is a serious concern

Black men shift slightly toward Trump in record numbers, polls show

Most Black men supported Biden, but overall, Democrats have been losing Black male support since 2008, according to NBC exit poll data.

www.nbcnews.com

As is this

AOC: Democrats' weakness with Latinos was foreseeable

Democrats’ struggle to win over Latino voters was quickly fingered as a major reason why Joe Biden lost Florida to Donald Trump.

www.politico.com

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Yeah, it definitely feels like black men moving to the right is becoming more of a trend than an anomaly. The demographics are changing. The R party will have to tweak their platform more if they're going to get beyond that though.

This isn't surprising. Cuban's really sunk Biden's chances in Florida. I'm curious on further break down of the Central and South American vote. Just to see how difference is between country of origin. For example, Venezuelan vs. Honduran. I suspect there are some larger differences there.

DaveXA said:

Yeah, it definitely feels like black men moving to the right is becoming more of a trend than an anomaly. The demographics are changing. The R party will have to tweak their platform more if they're going to get beyond that though.

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I kind of feel like it's being overplayed a bit in the media. It was only 2% points. There has always been a very strong counter-cultural rift in minority communities, especially black communities. So it wasn't really surprising to me that a few high profile black artist/influncers came out in favor of Trump, and thus have a minor impact in the black community. But I don't know how lasting that is.

Another post-mortem topic will be why did Democrats perform poorly in the congressional races - failing to capture the Senate and losing seats in the House, rather than gaining.

One idea circulating is that the big out-of-state money that Democrats poured into these races actually turned off voters.

DaveXA said:

Yeah, it definitely feels like black men moving to the right is becoming more of a trend than an anomaly. The demographics are changing. The R party will have to tweak their platform more if they're going to get beyond that though.

Click to expand...

It's because both parties still treat black people like they are poor and criminals, while the reality is the majority of blacks are middle class and have a whole different set of concerns other than criminal justice reform and government aide. Democrats need to adjust their message from pretending they need to take care of black folks and speak more to the problems we face today.

Also, Trump's tough-guy image, even if it's fake as hell, appeals to a segment of black men that are also faux alpha males.

coldseat said:

I kind of feel like it's being overplayed a bit in the media. It was only 2% points. There has always been a very strong counter-cultural rift in minority communities, especially black communities. So it wasn't really surprising to me that a few high profile black artist/influncers came out in favor of Trump, and thus have a minor impact in the black community. But I don't know how lasting that is.

Click to expand...

Maybe, I don't know either. But, it's clear that we're seeing more black conservative pundits than in years past. I mean, on Fox, there are several who make regular appearances. Then there are a few black Republican Congressmen who have been involved in key legislation.

I mean, even in the last week, there were Trump ads targeting the black community, which I thought was a bit unexpected. To little too late though.

superchuck500 said:

Another post-mortem topic will be why did Democrats perform poorly in the congressional races - failing to capture the Senate and losing seats in the House, rather than gaining.

One idea circulating is that the big out-of-state money that Democrats poured into these races actually turned off voters.

Click to expand...

I think it comes down to how they spend that money as well. If they're just doing more add buys or creating misleading adds like Harrison did in SC with the constitution candidate, then I think it does hurt them (which is seems like most of them do). If they use it to build up ground operations and more door to door personal contact, then it can be a benefit.

Saint by the Bay said:

It's because both parties still treat black people like they are poor and criminals, while the reality is the majority of blacks are middle class and have a whole different set of concerns other than criminal justice reform and government aide. Democrats need to adjust their message from pretending they need to take care of black folks and speak more to the problems we face today.

Also, Trump's tough-guy image, even if it's fake as hell, appeals to a segment of black men that are also faux alpha males.

Click to expand...

Agreed. That makes sense.

coldseat said:

I kind of feel like it's being overplayed a bit in the media. It was only 2% points. There has always been a very strong counter-cultural rift in minority communities, especially black communities. So it wasn't really surprising to me that a few high profile black artist/influncers came out in favor of Trump, and thus have a minor impact in the black community. But I don't know how lasting that is.

Click to expand...

2% drop vs HC, yes, but the downward trend of going from 95% for Obama, to now just 80%

coldseat said:

This isn't surprising. Cuban's really sunk Biden's chances in Florida. I'm curious on further break down of the Central and South American vote. Just to see how difference is between country of origin. For example, Venezuelan vs. Honduran. I suspect there are some larger differences there.

Click to expand...

What is interesting to me, it the one about PR, because in PR itself: Jenniffer González-Colón, Puerto Rico’s nonvoting representative in the U.S. Congress and a vocal ally of President Donald Trump, easily cruised to reelection early Tuesday evening.

Couple of things:
1. Bunching Cubans and Puerto Ricans with everyone else as "Latino" is wrong.
2. Never underestimate the power of celebrity in the Spanish-speaking world.

Saint by the Bay said:

It's because both parties still treat black people like they are poor and criminals, while the reality is the majority of blacks are middle class and have a whole different set of concerns other than criminal justice reform and government aide. Democrats need to adjust their message from pretending they need to take care of black folks and speak more to the problems we face today.

Also, Trump's tough-guy image, even if it's fake as hell, appeals to a segment of black men that are also faux alpha males.

Click to expand...

It will be interesting to watch Georgia over the next decade. That, and perhaps Houston, is the new center of black wealth in the country. Will middle class and upper-income blacks continue to vote Democratic at the very high level they currently do? Obviously, a lot of that depends on Republicans. Georgia should be a wake-up call to them, we will see.

Also - can Republicans make more inroads with working-class Hispanics? I think to the extent Trump increased support with this group (if he did outside of Florida) some of that can be contributed to Democrats propensity to shut everything down due to coronavirus - upper-income urban whites don't suffer nearly as much when that happens. Without that - do Republicans do as well?

Finally - What is the Trump factor in winning back some of the House seats and keeping the Senate? Overall was he a net plus or a drag? And by the same token are Democrats coming off as too far out of the mainstream - losing some of their more moderate House members and perhaps hurting their chances at taking the Senate?
Just going by some of the more contested Senate races it is unlcear as to Trump's effect - if there was much at all?
In North Carolina Tillis is doing a half a point better than Trump.
Michigan: James did/is doing well over 1 point better than Trump.
Minnesota: Lewis is doing almost a full 2 points better than Trump.

While in Iowa and Arizona Trump did substantially better than the Republican Senate candidates.

Maybe the early indication, which makes some sense, is that in blue/blueish purple states, Trump is a drag, while in red, reddish/purple, Trump is more of a benefit?

I think Covid makes it so hard to evaluate this election as any kind of real trend. I think the only thing out of this I accept with confidence is the Cuban support in Florida that may move that state from purple to light red.

Everything else I see I'm looking at through a pandemic lens and taking a wait and see attitude. 2022 is going to tell us a lot about the direction of the electorate and various voting blocks.

SystemShock said:

Couple of things:
1. Bunching Cubans and Puerto Ricans with everyone else as "Latino" is wrong.
2. Never underestimate the power of celebrity in the Spanish-speaking world.

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Yup.

Take a look at post 5. Shows a better breakdown.

Saint by the Bay said:

I think Covid makes it so hard to evaluate this election as any kind of real trend. I think the only thing out of this I accept with confidence is the Cuban support in Florida that may move that state from purple to light red.

Everything else I see I'm looking at through a pandemic lens and taking a wait and see attitude. 2022 is going to tell us a lot about the direction of the electorate and various voting blocks.

Click to expand...

Florida is more about freedom and no income tax. Everyone here wants to act like a high roller, or ride around drunk on a boat.