Bipartisan Infrastructure/3.5T Reconciliation/Gov Funding/Debt Ceiling (1 Viewer)

[coldseat]

Thought it would be good to have a place to discuss all the drama on Capitol Hill and whether Democrats will get any of this signed. Given that Republican have abandoned any responsibility of doing anything for the good of country it's on Dems to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling. But as with the reconciliation bill, moderates are opposing this.

I'm really trying hard to understand why Manchin and Sinema are making the reconciliation bill process so difficult and how they think that benefits them? As far as I can see, all it's doing is raising the ire of the majority of democrats towards them. It's been well known for a long time now that both the Infrastructure bill and reconciliation bill were tied together. They worked so hard to get and "Bipartisan" Infrastructure bill together (because it was oh so important to them to work together) and passed in the Senate, but now want to slow drag and bulk on the reconciliation bill (by not being able to negotiate with members of their own party)? There by, Putting both bills passage at risk and tanking both the Biden agenda and any hope of winning Congress in 2022? Make it make sense!

I suspect they'll get it done in the end because the implication of failure are really bad. But why make it so dysfunctional?

The drama and diplomacy are set to intensify over the next 24 hours, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) scrambles to keep her fractious, narrow majority intact and send the first of two major economic initiatives to Biden’s desk. In a sign of the stakes, the president even canceled a planned Wednesday trip to Chicago so that he could stay in Washington and attempt to spare his agenda from collapse.
Democrats generally support the infrastructure package, which proposes major new investments in the country’s aging roads, bridges, pipes, ports and Internet connections. But the bill has become a critical political bargaining chip for liberal-leaning lawmakers, who have threatened to scuttle it to preserve the breadth of a second, roughly $3.5 trillion economic package.
What is in and out of the bipartisan infrastructure bill?
That latter proposal aims to expand Medicare, invest new sums to combat climate change, offer free prekindergarten and community college to all students and extend new aid to low-income families — all financed through taxes increases on wealthy Americans and corporations. Liberals fear it is likely to be slashed in scope dramatically by moderates, including Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), unless they hold up the infrastructure package the duo helped negotiate — leading to the stalemate that plagues the party on the eve of the House vote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/09/29/biden-pelosi-democrats-infrastructure/

 

[SFIDC3]

And saying Republicans don't believe in Covid is low, man. If that were the case, why in the hell are most, if not all, employees at Fox News fully vaccinated if not most GOP House and Senate members.

Actually, those Fox News and political Republicans are lower than you think, they know full well Covid exists and are vaccinated to protect themselves. Yet they continually push the anti-vax and other misinformation nonsense because it is what their base wants to hear....anything to stay in power basically, it doesn't get much lower than that IMO

 

[Lapaz]

In regards to this bill, I think we need to prioritize things. Here is a summary of the items that are in the bill: Universal pre-k for 3 and 4 year olds; enhancing child care workforce pay to raise from 12.24 to $15/hour; free 2 year college tuition; increasing funding to historically black colleges; increasing Pell grants; 12 weeks of paid parental and illness leave; extending the child tax credit, earned income tax credit and dependent care tax credit past 2021; adding dental, vision and hearing benefits to Medicare; lowering the eligibility age of Medicare; enhancing Obamacare subsidies; additional funding for seniors, disabled and home care workers; a new federal program to cover people who live in states that haven't expanded Medicaid under the ACA; allowing Medicare to negotiate prices (I don't think this costs anything so it may be a credit); investing in maternal, behavioral and racial justice health measures; climate change investments to get to 80% clean grid by 2030, consumer incentives for various clean energy things, and conservation investments; investments in infrastructure including housing and Indian infrastructure.

This is a ridiculous amount of things to put into one bill. It seems that democrats are trying to get everything they ever wanted into one bill, because they think they may lose majorities, so they need to do it all now. That's an inappropriate approach to governing. The bill should be guided by Maslow's Hierarchy. The bill should address the most critical items which relate to physiological needs. We all physiologically need the earth to remain livable and we need health. To that end, the climate change related items are critical to our existence on the planet, even though America can only lead the world, but it is critical to lead, otherwise the world will resist changing, and we need to do our part. The medical investments, which directly affect one's health, should be kept. Besides those, most of the other things in the bill are admirable, since they make life better for many, but they shouldn't be kept at the risk of the physiologically critical items. Nice to haves, such as 2 year free tuition, raises to $15/hour, and many other investments should be handled separately. I prefer the 3.5T bill to increase investments in the critical items, rather than keeping everything, thereby reducing the investments across the board, which will make most critical items ineffective. So I think the Democrats should pass the 1.5T infrastructure bill, some of which overlaps with the bigger bill, and then eliminate all but the most critical items from the bigger 3.5T bill. Democrats can probably drastically cut the size of the 3.5T bill, while still addressing the most important items.

 

[MT15]

The explanation I read for Manchin is that the $4T figure included both infrastructure bills, before they split them apart. I don’t think Manchin is being completely unreasonable, even though I don’t agree with his opposition to a carve out of the filibuster.

There’s way too much demonization going on of both the progressives and Manchin and moderates. For example, a lot of the people slamming Manchin for changing his money figures have to know that he was talking about a total for both types of infrastructure. But they portray him as being for $4T in what is now called human infrastructure, and then suddenly changing his mind due to corruption. We’ve seen it here in this thread.

Saying Manchin is hopelessly corrupt and failing to realize that he has a duty to represent the people of WV is the type of thing Trump does: any opposition at all is portrayed as evil. I don’t like seeing Democrats do that to each other.

 

[MT15]

This kind of unforced error just drives me nuts. I would love to hear that there is some more context to this, but this sounds really bad:

 

[Lapaz]

This kind of unforced error just drives me nuts. I would love to hear that there is some more context to this, but this sounds really bad:

The Democrats are being idiotic. If they pass some of the bill, they will have some things to tout as achievements, and then they can say they need a bigger majority to get some of the other items. If they get the whole thing, what will they run on?

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

The explanation I read for Manchin is that the $4T figure included both infrastructure bills, before they split them apart. I don’t think Manchin is being completely unreasonable, even though I don’t agree with his opposition to a carve out of the filibuster.

There’s way too much demonization going on of both the progressives and Manchin and moderates. For example, a lot of the people slamming Manchin for changing his money figures have to know that he was talking about a total for both types of infrastructure. But they portray him as being for $4T in what is now called human infrastructure, and then suddenly changing his mind due to corruption. We’ve seen it here in this thread.

Saying Manchin is hopelessly corrupt and failing to realize that he has a duty to represent the people of WV is the type of thing Trump does: any opposition at all is portrayed as evil. I don’t like seeing Democrats do that to each other.

Manchin should be trying to do what is best for his constituents, that is what he should be doing. It's irrelevant whether or not most of them agree with it.

West Virginia is one of the poorest states in the country. Both bills would benefit his state tremendously. In fact, millions of Republican voters throughout the country support both bills. It is a smarter political move for Manchin to support the $3.5 trillion spending bill and then some.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

The Democrats are being idiotic. If they pass some of the bill, they will have some things to tout as achievements, and then they can say they need a bigger majority to get some of the other items. If they get the whole thing, what will they run on?

What do Democrats run on if they get the whole thing? Seriously???

They run on passing the most important domestic legislation since LBJ and the Great Society in the 1960s, that's what they run on. They run on doing more in 2 years than Republicans have accomplished domestically since freaking Reconstruction ended 140 years ago.

 

[J-DONK]

Manchin should be trying to do what is best for his constituents, that is what he should be doing. It's irrelevant whether or not most of them agree with it.

West Virginia is one of the poorest states in the country. Both bills would benefit his state tremendously. In fact, millions of Republican voters throughout the country support both bills. It is a smarter political move for Manchin to support the $3.5 trillion spending bill and then some.

Manchin should at the very least be doing what's polling well in his state, which is passing the bill.

I've said it before on this. Progressives have started to weld their power. They are voting as a unified group, and already negotiated down to 3.5. They had a deal. Manchin, and Sinema are both being unreasonable. Again its 94 vs 2. They won't win.

At this point, threaten them with primary challenges, no party support for future campaigns, and finish that off with tv ads buys attacking their refusal to vote on the bill.

 

[MT15]

If the Democrats do that, get ready for McConnell to take over the Senate again. It wouldn’t cost Manchin any votes in WV to declare himself an independent and start caucusing with the Republicans. Sinema maybe also, and she’s a complete wildcard that I don’t trust at all.

Most of Manchin’s voters consider themselves Republicans. They don’t support the human infrastructure bill as much as you guys think. We went over that before I left last week. One poll funded by the Democratic Party found a slim majority support among Republicans nationwide for the 3.5T bill, but Pew found only 17-25% support among Republicans nationwide. Maybe you can find a poll specifically for WV, I haven’t seen that. I would be interested in seeing it.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

If the Democrats do that, get ready for McConnell to take over the Senate again. It wouldn’t cost Manchin any votes in WV to declare himself an independent and start caucusing with the Republicans. Sinema maybe also, and she’s a complete wildcard that I don’t trust at all.

Most of Manchin’s voters consider themselves Republicans. They don’t support the human infrastructure bill as much as you guys think. We went over that before I left last week. One poll funded by the Democratic Party found a slim majority support among Republicans nationwide for the 3.5T bill, but Pew found only 17-25% support among Republicans nationwide. Maybe you can find a poll specifically for WV, I haven’t seen that. I would be interested in seeing it.

If Manchin and Sinema aren't going to help the rest of the Democrats protect democracy by eliminating the filibuster for the new voter protection laws (HR1 and HR4), then both of them might as well leave the party right now.

When the Republicans take over Congress next year due to the idiocy of Manchin and Sinema, the Democrats will NEVER win another Congressional election or Presidential election again. Never Ever. That is how dangerous and authoritarian the Trump Cult Republican Party has become. Therefore, it doesn't freaking matter if Manchin and Sinema become Republicans, if they aren't willing to do what it takes to protect democracy right now before it's too late.

 

[Lapaz]

What do Democrats run on if they get the whole thing? Seriously???

They run on passing the most important domestic legislation since LBJ and the Great Society in the 1960s, that's what they run on. They run on doing more in 2 years than Republicans have accomplished domestically since freaking Reconstruction ended 140 years ago.

You can try to run on what you've achieved, and hope voters will pat you on the back for your achievements, but it's more realistic and smarter politically to give voters a reason to want to vote for you to do something in the future. If you've given them everything they want, then they think they don't need you anymore. What will get them enthused? All you could run on is the fear of losing what has been gained. Democrats don't put enough weight on that nor the courts, so it is better to leave some things on the table for the next congress, rather than trying to take a giant bite to get everything you want in your mouth at once. Besides, I don't think a majority of the country wants it all at once. It is too dramatic of a change. Individually, most, but not all of the items in the bill are popular. The fear from democrats is that they can't get the less popular items without attaching them to the more popular items. Well, if an item is less popular, then it shouldn't be a leach on the items that are more popular, much less the items that are existential, like climate policy and health care. Not only that, but those less popular items will be hung around the neck of democrats during the general election in the more moderate and conservative areas of the country. It's a recipe to fail in future elections.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

You can run on what you've achieved, but you've got to give voters a reason to want to vote for you to do something in the future. If you've given them everything they want, then they think they don't need you anymore. All you could run on is the fear of losing what has been gained. Democrats don't put enough weight on that nor the courts, so it is better to leave somethings on the table for the next congress, rather than trying to take a giant bite to get everything you want in your mouth at once. Besides, I don't think a majority of the country wants it all at once. It is too dramatic of a change. Individually, most, but not all of the items in the bill are popular. The fear from democrats is that they can't get the less popular items without attaching them to the more popular items. Well, if an item is less popular, then it shouldn't be a leach on the items that are more popular, much less the items that are existential, like climate policy and health care.

Really? What in God's name are the Republicans running on??? Even more Trump arse kissing than before??? The Republican Party had a blank sheet of paper for their party platform during the 2020 elections....literally.

Fear is a bigger motivator for voters than anything else. No rational voter is going to vote for the Republican Party because they are terrified of them. The Republicans are trying to pretend that Jan 6 didn't even happen. They are evil, dangerous, and crazy and they are subverting our democracy.

 

[MT15]

If Manchin and Sinema aren't going to help the rest of the Democrats protect democracy by eliminating the filibuster for the new voter protection laws (HR1 and HR4), then both of them might as well leave the party right now.

When the Republicans take over Congress next year due to the idiocy of Manchin and Sinema, the Democrats will NEVER win another Congressional election or Presidential election again. Never Ever. That is how dangerous and authoritarian the Trump Cult Republican Party has become. Therefore, it doesn't freaking matter if Manchin and Sinema became Republicans, if they aren't willing to do what it takes to protect democracy right now before it's too late.

So this is a lot of overheated rhetoric, respectfully. This is a process, it’s not over. Let the process play out a bit. Don’t listen to folks who want everything to be such a huge crisis.

I had this conversation last night with my son. Am I concerned about the increasingly deranged views of the far right Rs? Sure. Do I think it actually represents the majority of people in this country? No. I really don’t. The far right is loud and they bear close watching. But they aren’t the majority in this country.

We’ve had these sorts of movements before in this country, we’ve always been able to rely on the common sense of the majority to eventually assert themselves.

If Manchin and/or Sinema decide to caucus with Rs, which they could do tomorrow, the whole deal is up. We get nothing. That could happen immediately, so your idea that they may as well do that strikes me as the classic example of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

[MT15]

I would add that you don’t have to like the power that Manchin and Sinema have right now, but you should be able to recognize it. And manage to deal with it so that Democrats can achieve something. Because independent voters will swing the other way if nothing gets done, IMO.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

So this is a lot of overheated rhetoric, respectfully. This is a process, it’s not over. Let the process play out a bit. Don’t listen to folks who want everything to be such a huge crisis.

I had this conversation last night with my son. Am I concerned about the increasingly deranged views of the far right Rs? Sure. Do I think it actually represents the majority of people in this country? No. I really don’t. The far right is loud and they bear close watching. But they aren’t the majority in this country.

We’ve had these sorts of movements before in this country, we’ve always been able to rely on the common sense of the majority to eventually assert themselves.

If Manchin and/or Sinema decide to caucus with Rs, which they could do tomorrow, the whole deal is up. We get nothing. That could happen immediately, so your idea that they may as well do that strikes me as the classic example of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

It doesn't matter if these crazy Republicans are in the minority -- they already know this. Their goal is permanent minority rule. That is the whole point of the new voter suppression laws and new gerrymandering in states like Texas and Georgia. You don't fully understand the threat.

If Manchin and Sinema are not going to vote with the other 48 Democrats in the Senate to protect democracy, then yes go ahead and become Republicans right now. Because it's over in 2022 anyway if they don't eliminate the filibuster for HR1 and HR4 right now.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

We’ve had these sorts of movements before in this country, we’ve always been able to rely on the common sense of the majority to eventually assert themselves.

Yeah? Please tell me the last time a bunch of Republican voters tried to overthrow an election, like they did on Jan 6. Please tell me the last time a former President constantly stated that the election was stolen from him, with no evidence.

Again, you underestimate the threat.

 

[Lapaz]

Really? What in God's name are the Republicans running on??? Even more Trump arse kissing than before??? The Republican Party had a blank sheet of paper for their party platform during the 2020 elections....literally.

Fear is a bigger motivator for voters than anything else. No rational voter is going to vote for the Republican Party because they are terrified of them. The Republicans are trying to pretend that Jan 6 didn't even happen. They are evil, dangerous, and crazy and they are subverting our democracy.

You don't understand Republican voters. They don't need legislation. They just need to detest everything democratic. Their aim is to eliminate government as much as possible, unless it is biblical governance. Almost half of America voted for one of the most immoral politicians in history and one that wants to become a dictator, so what do you think would happen if that Republican was a little more appealing? Replace Trump with DeSantis or his ilk, without giving Democratic voters a reason to vote for you, and about 5% will switch their vote to the Republican, and Democrats will lose.

The more immediate problem is the midterms. Some more appealing Trumpists will run in many voting district, and even in the more liberal districts, the result will be that 5% of Democratic voters will vote for that Trumpian candidate, unless they think the Democrat has something to offer. Trump was so dangerous that fear was enough of a motivator to convert many people, but make the candidate slightly more appealing, and that fear won't be enough. Without a reason, other than fear, the end result will be that Democrats will lose by an even larger margin than is currently predicted, and governance will get ugly. Whereas, keep some of the human infrastructure out of the current bill, and Democrats can run on trying to pass that in the next election. Some of that human infrastructure will play well in the liberal districts, but if it is passed, they can't run on passing it.

My hope is that Trumpism is like an addiction. We need to stay clean long enough to break the addiction. Apparently, many are still craving that toxic nonsense, which partially explains why Biden's approval numbers are low, so we need to buy some time to allow people to realize that that toxicity doesn't belong in government. The cult analogy works as well. We're in the process of breaking the cult of personality spell, but we need more time. Biden needs a Democratic congress to continue to make progress, and that's best achieved by giving Democrats an achievement AND something to run on to achieve in the future. If they shoot themselves in the foot with this all or nothing approach, then they will get slaughtered in the midterms.

 

[Kerry Won Ohio]

You don't understand Republican voters. They don't need legislation. They just need to detest everything democratic. Their aim is to eliminate government as much as possible, unless it is biblical governance. Almost half of America voted for one of the most immoral politicians in history and one that wants to become a dictator, so what do you think would happen if that Republican was a little more appealing? Replace Trump with DeSantis or his ilk, without giving Democratic voters a reason to vote for you, and about 5% will switch their vote to the Republican, and Democrats will lose.

The more immediate problem is the midterms. Some more appealing Trumpists will run in many voting district, and even in the more liberal districts, and the result will be that 5% of Democratic voters will vote for that Trumpian candidate, unless they thing the Democrat has something to offer. Trump was so dangerous that fear was enough of a motivator to convert many people, but make the candidate slightly more appealing, and that fear won't be enough. Without a reason, other than fear, the end result will be that Democrats will lose by an even larger margin than is currently predicted, and governance will get ugly. Whereas, keep some of the human infrastructure out of the current bill, and Democrats can run on trying to pass that in the next election. Some of that human infrastructure will play well in the liberal districts, but if it is passed, they can't run on passing it.

My hope is that Trumpism is like an addiction. We need to stay clean long enough to break the addiction. Apparently, many are still craving that toxic nonsense, which partially explains why Biden's approval numbers are low, so we need to buy some time to allow people to realize that that toxicity doesn't belong in government. The cult analogy works as well. We're in the process of breaking the cult of personality spell, but we need more time. Biden needs a Democratic congress to continue to make progress, and that's best achieved by giving Democrats an achievement AND something to run on to achieve in the future. If they shoot themselves in the foot with this all or nothing approach, then they will get slaughtered in the midterms.

I understand Republican voters perfectly. I don't understand why you are holding Democrats to a higher standard. If Republican voters don't care about legislation and achievements, then why does it matter what the Democrats do?

None of your analysis matters if HR1 and HR4 are not passed. Republicans will steal the elections anyway if that is the case. Quibbling about 5% of Democrats who are stupid enough to vote for Trumpsters simply ain't going to matter if HR1 and HR4 are not passed by Congress.

Trumpism is going NOWHERE. Stop deluding yourself.