The trade and economy mega-thread (1 Viewer)

[superchuck500]

Is there a trade deal with China? Is it really a deal or just a pull-back to status quo ante? Is Trump advancing US interests in this well-executed trade battle plan or was this poorly conceived from the start . . . and harmful?

I think the jury's still out, but I haven't seen that the Chinese are offering much in compromise - and it's not even clear if there's going to be an agreement. But it's clear they are working on something and I'm sure Trump will sell it as the greatest trade deal ever. The proof will be in the details.

 

[efil4]

Black Friday shopping 2025 is gonna be Terrordome style.

 

[superchuck500]

Trumponomics poised to make housing market worse even if economy slows.

 

[UriUT]

" Oil is crashing and it could drag Texas, Wall Street, and the entire U.S. economy down with it.​

Most people don’t realize what a drop to $50 really means.​

But if you work, drive, invest, or live in America this thread matters to you. ​

Crude oil prices are falling fast.​

• Brent crude: ~$59​

• WTI crude: ~$56​

These aren’t just random numbers. They're the lifeblood of the global economy and the U.S. economy in particular. Let’s break down why.​

What’s Brent vs. WTI?​

Brent is oil from the North Sea. It's the global benchmark used to price 2/3 of the world’s crude.​

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is sourced in the U.S., mostly from Texas, and it’s the benchmark for U.S. oil.​

WTI tells us how U.S. producers and U.S. jobs are doing.​

That’s where things get serious. WTI is sitting at $56.​

But the break-even price for many U.S. oil producers is ~$50. Below that?​

Drilling becomes unprofitable. Rigs stop. Workers get laid off. It’s not just oil companies that feel it, it’s entire communities.​

Now zoom in on Texas, the epicenter of this storm.​

• Texas produces more oil than any other U.S. state​

• Home to the Permian Basin, one of the most productive oil fields on Earth​

• Oil revenues fund schools, infrastructure, and jobs millions of them​

So what’s causing prices to crash? OPEC+ just announced a massive production hike​

They’re adding hundreds of thousands of barrels per day even as demand weakens.​

This is like throwing water into a bathtub that’s already full. It spills over and prices tank.​

Meanwhile, demand is falling off a cliff:​

• U.S. GDP just shrank​

• China’s oil use is slowing (thanks to EV adoption & LNG trucking)​

• Global trade is stuck in a chokehold of tariffs and economic tension​

Too much oil + too little demand = disaster for oil prices.​

Oil markets are in contango now, future oil prices are higher than current ones.​

This causes buyers to delay purchases, hoard oil, and wait.​

​

That delay only worsens the current oversupply. It’s a self-feeding loop that pushes prices even lower

The ripple effect is already showing:​

​

• Energy stocks are bleeding​

• Oil giants are scaling back investment​

• BP is rumored to be a takeover target​

• Entire regions are bracing for recession​

​

This isn’t just market noise, it’s an early warning siren.
....​

Sure, lower oil means cheaper gas. But that’s a short-term perk. The long-term risk?​

​

• U.S. job losses​

• Bankruptcies in energy​

• Declining tax revenue​

• Market instability​

​

When Texas sneezes, the U.S. economy catches a cold.​

Analysts like Goldman and Barclays are already cutting forecasts.​

​

Some see oil stabilizing in the $50–60 range. Others think we could dip much lower.​

​

If that happens, get ready for rig shutdowns, debt defaults, and an energy-led slowdown.

We’ve seen this before in 2020 but this time, it’s not just COVID.​

​

It’s geopolitical decisions, structural demand shifts, and speculative market forces colliding all at once.​

​

Which brings us to now."​

 

[Optimus Prime]

they should probably just stop talking about Star Wars
===================================
JD Vance has raised the eyebrows of Star Wars fans and Donald Trump supporters alike after he revealed that he is a fan of the sci-fi franchise’s much-maligned prequel trilogy.

Vance has shared his thoughts on the prequels, released between 1999 and 2005, after wading into a debate about the films with conservative commentator Jack Posobiec.

“The prequels suck because they were poorly made by George Lucas who only had a small role in the original series,” Posobiec wrote on X/Twitter.

“The sequels suck because they are abominations made by Disney committees and JJ Abrams simps,” he added.

JD Vance replied to Posobiec by saying: “Prequels were underrated!”

The Star Wars prequel trilogy consists of The Phantom Menace (1999), Attack of the Clones (2002) and Revenge of the Sith (2005). Although there has been some revisionist apprecation of the films in recent years, the popular consensus is that they were of a poorer quality than the original trilogy and were jam-packed with shoddy CGI and divisive characters such as Jar Jar Binks.

Another big criticism of the prequels revolved around the complicated plot point of trade taxations imposed by the Galactic Republic on the “Trade Federation”.

In the real world, the US also imposed trade tariffs on various countries earlier this year at the behest of Trump, in an effort to increase homegrown production and reduce trade imbalances.

The similarities between the prequels and the US’s current economic situation thanks have not gone unnoticed by Star Wars fans ,who were more than happy to point out the irony in Vance’s position.

Author G Elliot Morris noted: “The Star Wars prequels are all about how an unfair and severe galactic tariff policy causes instability in the multi-planetary political order that ultimately enables an authoritarian to seize power under the guise of restoring peace and prosperity to the republic. Deja vu…”

Another person said: “The prequels are about how pro-tariff policies and authoritarianism are joined at the hip and will ultimately lead to the collapse of civilisation”.

“Hoo boy,” joked a third while sharing an image of The Phantom Menace’s opening crawl which explains the turmoil caused by the taxation on the trade routes............

Star Wars fans point out the irony of JD Vance being a fan of the prequel trilogy

‘Deja vu,’ joked one fan

www.the-independent.com

 

[superchuck500]

 

[efil4]

Canadian PM Carney will be arriving at WH shortly and this is the post from out POTUS just hours before his arrival.



if you didnt know, he holds his PhD in Economics from Oxford. He has forgotten more about econ than Trump has ever known.

This should be interesting if Trump indeed, plans on asking that "subsidy" question.

 

[DJ1BigTymer]

Canadian PM Carney will be arriving at WH shortly and this is the post from out POTUS just hours before his arrival.



if you didnt know, he holds his PhD in Economics from Oxford. He has forgotten more about econ than Trump has ever known.

This should be interesting if Trump indeed, plans on asking that "subsidy" question.

Fredo Corleone would run a better Protection Racket than this clown.

 

[RobF]

Canadian PM Carney will be arriving at WH shortly and this is the post from out POTUS just hours before his arrival.



if you didnt know, he holds his PhD in Economics from Oxford. He has forgotten more about econ than Trump has ever known.

This should be interesting if Trump indeed, plans on asking that "subsidy" question.

His experience in economics isn't even close to being just academic either. He progressed up the ranks at Goldman Sachs, and he was Governor of the Bank of Canada for five years, then Governor of the Bank of England for seven (which is why I know a bit about him).

 

[efil4]

His experience in economics isn't even close to being just academic either. He progressed up the ranks at Goldman Sachs, and he was Governor of the Bank of Canada for five years, then Governor of the Bank of England for seven (which is why I know a bit about him).

Trump already knows he is outclassed in the economics arena, which is why i suspect he will move to immediate "discrediting" statements that he will want to diminish Carneys "status"

 

[UriUT]

Trump already knows he is outclassed in the economics arena, which is why i suspect he will move to immediate "discrediting" statements that he will want to diminish Carneys "status"

Beyond his expertise is that he's willing to stand up against a bully. If we fill a room with non maga, anyone there would outclass trump in intellect and expertise. I admire that fight most.

 

[coldseat]

Canadian PM Carney will be arriving at WH shortly and this is the post from out POTUS just hours before his arrival.



if you didnt know, he holds his PhD in Economics from Oxford. He has forgotten more about econ than Trump has ever known.

This should be interesting if Trump indeed, plans on asking that "subsidy" question.

When Trump asks Carney that subsidy question, I hope he responds with, "Donald, if you go to McDonalds and buy a Big Mac from them, do you then turnaround and accuse them of ripping you off? No, McDonald's says thank you for your business and you say thank you for the meal and eat it. It's a fair exchange. Trade with Canada is no different."

 

[efil4]

and so it begins.

Trump apparently thinks Ovechkin, who just broke Gretzky scoring record, is ....Canadian.



annnd 51st state?



Carney responds



then abrupt move to China and Trump math....



Back to US/Canada trade



Finally....




others - he talked about Obama building a library thats going horribly and Gavin Newsome of Cali

 

[efil4]

the closing diatribe- the stream of consciousness is something else.

 

[coldseat]

the closing diatribe- the stream of consciousness is something else.

Trump’s objective with this meeting was to weaken Carney by repeating the most nonsensical and disrespectful shirt about Canada to his face.

This Peice of work continues to defecate all over the US.

 

[DaveXA]

Trump’s objective with this meeting was to weaken Carney by repeating the most nonsensical and disrespectful shirt about Canada to his face.

This Peice of work continues to defecate all over the US.

He's an abject embarrassment to our country. Republicans have no shame. Just terrible.

 

[efil4]

 

[longtime lurker]

The first boats carrying Chinese goods with 145% tariffs are arriving in LA. They’re half-full. Expect shortages soon | CNN Business

American consumers are on the cusp of tough choices because of President Donald Trump’s trade war.

amp.cnn.com

 

[superchuck500]