Senate Election 2020 Thread (1 Viewer)

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superchuck500

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So there are 35 Senate seats contested in November. Use this thread to talk about them.

Here's a tracker site:

 

J-DONK

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If Hillary had won in 2016 I doubt the House swings in 2018 and she'd probably be losing to Kasich or maybe even Nikki Haley right now. And I say that just because that's how politics swing. We'd probably be sitting at about 1/4 fewer Covid deaths than we've experienced (and I say that by comparing the US death rate to that of Europe), and the R's would be howling about how they were all Killary's fault.
This is about right. Democrats would not be a position to make a generational change to the balance of power if Clinton was president. It's much easier to run in the minority. Republicans did a great job vs Obama who was widely more popular then Clinton. I think the house is Republican, and Republicans have 1 or 2 more seats in the senate enough to keep the majority after 2020.
 

LA - L.A.

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This is about right. Democrats would not be a position to make a generational change to the balance of power if Clinton was president. It's much easier to run in the minority. Republicans did a great job vs Obama who was widely more popular then Clinton. I think the house is Republican, and Republicans have 1 or 2 more seats in the senate enough to keep the majority after 2020.
For a generational change in the balance of power to happen, the most important thing that has to happen is at the state gubernatorial and legislature level. Whoever decides the redistricting of their states after the Census is complete gets to rule that state for at least the next decade.

Those state races are as, if not more, important as the US Senate races.
 

J-DONK

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For a generational change in the balance of power to happen, the most important thing that has to happen is at the state gubernatorial and legislature level. Whoever decides the redistricting of their states after the Census is complete gets to rule that state for at least the next decade.

Those state races are as, if not more, important as the US Senate races.
Oh I'm talking about the strategy of adding two states, making the house proportional to population, and up to 3 justices to the SC. It would be extremely hard for republicans to ever fully control the federal government.
 

LA - L.A.

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Oh I'm talking about the strategy of adding two states, making the house proportional to population, and up to 3 justices to the SC. It would be extremely hard for republicans to ever fully control the federal government.
I get that, but all of that actually starts at the state level, because states control elections for who gets voted into federal office to do all of those things.
 

Saint by the Bay

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The Republicans has developed a level of sloppiness that can only come from believing there are no consequences for anything you do. They are the equivalent of the kid whose teacher likes him so they always give him a 90 even when his work sucks. That kid never feels motivated to do things right because they always know exactly what their grade will be.
 

wardorican

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Might reflect in the Senate, but Biden seems to be gaining some points here...

1602252580324.png



Senate.. Went from a 67% chance to a 68% chance. Probably just noise, no real gain. We'll see.

1602252659515.png
 

wardorican

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However, it has been along a pretty solid increase all month... But the error has a lot of overlap.

1602252774694.png
 

Saint by the Bay

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Amazingly Cunnigham seems to be holding tight against Tillis despite his love of late-night drunk texting. I understand the Lindsey "What The Heck Is Integrity" Graham, but does anyone have insight into why Tillis seems to be so far on the outs with NC voters?
 

SaulGoodmanEsq

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Amazingly Cunnigham seems to be holding tight against Tillis despite his love of late-night drunk texting. I understand the Lindsey "What The Heck Is Integrity" Graham, but does anyone have insight into why Tillis seems to be so far on the outs with NC voters?
Not specifically, but North Carolina has been trending blue given the influx of people into the 'Research Triangle' cities. Similar to what is going on in Texas. Also, Cooper (Democrat) is dominating the governor's race.
 

CoolBrees

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Obama won NC remember.

north cackalakey has a bunch of new Englanders and west coasters moving there for the triangle.

It is the unintended consequence of being business friendly. You get the giant tech companies and all of their $ but they bring the educated (read liberal) with them.
 

MT15

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This guy is in a very tight race, and could use some help, if you are looking to donate to a meaningful Senate race. He has come forward with a deeply personal story about a second trimester abortion. This is what happens in real life.

Side bonus, it’s from Laura Bassett, a great writer and Twitter follow, with a local connection to this board.

 

JimEverett

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Amazingly Cunnigham seems to be holding tight against Tillis despite his love of late-night drunk texting. I understand the Lindsey "What The Heck Is Integrity" Graham, but does anyone have insight into why Tillis seems to be so far on the outs with NC voters?
Tillis has been somewhat critical of Trump. Hence he is polling under Trump by a few points (he will not get a significant amount of Democrats). NC will be a close race at top of ticket but if Tillis cannot shore up more of the Trump vote he will lose fairly easily.
It's why I thought the Barrett nomination might help Tillis by allowing him to support Trump in a high profile media story, but so far it does not look like that is happening.
 

B4YOU

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Tillis has been somewhat critical of Trump. Hence he is polling under Trump by a few points (he will not get a significant amount of Democrats). NC will be a close race at top of ticket but if Tillis cannot shore up more of the Trump vote he will lose fairly easily.
It's why I thought the Barrett nomination might help Tillis by allowing him to support Trump in a high profile media story, but so far it does not look like that is happening.
I thought Cunningham was done after the affair. He is trending downwards but not at the pace I thought he would.

I think moderate/swing voters are seeing Rs as hypocrites who put power before principles. The hypocrisy of this SC appointment after blocking Garland may be insulating Cunningham. I also think Covid diagnosis of Tillis from attending a WH reception and not wearing a mask is playing into the hypocrisy narrative.
 
OP
superchuck500

superchuck500

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I thought Cunningham was done after the affair. He is trending downwards but not at the pace I thought he would.

I think moderate/swing voters are seeing Rs as hypocrites who put power before principles. The hypocrisy of this SC appointment after blocking Garland may be insulating Cunningham. I also think Covid diagnosis of Tillis from attending a WH reception and not wearing a mask is playing into the hypocrisy narrative.
I was just in NC for five days. It seemed like most of the Cunningham ads talked about how much lobby money Tillis has gotten (allegedly the most in the Senate for certain special interests) or Cunningham himself talking about how he's practical and works across the aisle to accomplish gains for North Carolina.

Both approaches seem fairly effective.
 
OP
superchuck500

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Not specifically, but North Carolina has been trending blue given the influx of people into the 'Research Triangle' cities. Similar to what is going on in Texas. Also, Cooper (Democrat) is dominating the governor's race.
To some degree, South Carolina's demographics have seen similar trends. The state has had substantial growth over the past five years, primarily in the Charleston and Greenville/Spartanburg metro areas.

Charleston is seeing growth from high-end/technical manufacturing (Boeing and Volvo) and been a prime beneficiary of more general trends of families (generally professional types) and empty-nesters moving from larger northern metro centers to the smaller, more accessible, beach city with a nice climate. We moved from the DC area to Charleston in 2015 and we are definitely no longer "new" to town - we regularly meet new people who moved here after we did. It's actually becoming uncommon to meet people that grew up in the area.

Greenville/Spartanburg has had its own growth trend, that, as I understand it, is being driven by tech and similar upstarts - thanks to some favorable policies and aggressive business recruitment. I think the boom there is a bit younger demographically than what is happening in Charleston, and skilled/degreed in STEM and similar. I think the proximity to the Charlotte metro area, but with lower cost of living and more favorable tax and other policies, is a big driver there.

The new demographics in both of these growth areas would seem to lean away from current populist Republicans, and I expect that election results will bear this out. I think the old "Chamber of Commerce" wing of the GOP would have had quite a bit of appeal in these growth trends that SC has experienced. But even the Chamber, these days, is finding difficulty endorsing tribal, Trump-style Republicans.
 

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Only if Sanders could've figured out a way to get a black person to vote for him.

Why he failed so miserably at that twice in a row is a mystery to me. He's walked the walk for 40 years of supporting the little guy, supporting civil rights and economic fairness.
There's just something about him...
Honestly, I don't think the AA electorate ever forgot or forgave Bernie for how he handled President Obama, particularly during his first term. Obama was wildly popular with the party (still is) and even moreso popular with AAs (still is) and Bernie was out there advocating for him to be challenged in a primary. It was politically shortsighted on his part, even if he believed he was speaking on principle. Which sucks, because the man has a tremendous track record of supporting my community. But, my community loved/loves President Obama, wanted him elected, wanted him re-elected and at a time when the President needed more supporters than detractors, Bernie came across as disloyal. All of that rhetoric should have been kept behind closed doors, not aired out on C-Span.
 

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